BREAKING: The U.S. Treasury’s budget deficit fell -52.8% year-over-year in November, reaching $173.3 billion—the lowest November figure since 2020.

Excluding the pandemic years, this marks the lowest November reading since 2017.

Government revenue climbed +17.8% YoY to $740.4 billion, setting a record high for the first two months of any fiscal year.

Meanwhile, government spending declined -4.4% YoY to $1.19 trillion, the second-largest November expenditure total on record.

Despite these shifts, the deficit for the first two months of FY2026 has risen to $457.6 billion, the second-highest in history.

Deficit spending continues at full pace.

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BREAKING: Lululemon stock, $LULU, surges over +12% after the company’s CEO says he is resigning.

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BREAKING: U.S. rent prices fell -0.2% month-over-month in November, dropping to $1,706—the largest November decline in at least 15 years.

This marks the 5th straight month of flat or negative rent changes.

Annual rent growth eased to +0.7%, down from +1.5% in Q1 2025.

All U.S. regions recorded a 4th consecutive monthly decline, led by the West at -0.4% MoM.

The South followed with -0.2%, while the Northeast slipped -0.1%.

The U.S. rental market continues to slow.

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BREAKING: The S&P 500 has officially recorded its highest closing level in history, now up +42% from the April 2025 low.

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SpaceX is poised to deliver what could be the most remarkable IPO ever.

Its valuation is projected at three times that of OpenAI.

2026 is shaping up to be a landmark year.

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BREAKING: President Trump is set to unveil significant corporate tax breaks.

The new tax guidance, expected as early as next week, will enable companies to fully utilize R&D tax incentives.

Under Trump’s proposed tax bill, corporations will be permitted to claim retroactive R&D deductions valued at $67 billion.

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BREAKING: China’s goods trade surplus surged +21% YoY, reaching a record $1.1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025.

This already surpasses the previous full-year high of $990 billion.

Since 2019, China’s trade surplus has nearly tripled.

In November alone, the surplus climbed to $112 billion, the third-largest monthly surplus ever recorded.

Exports rose +5.9% YoY last month, far outpacing the +1.9% increase in imports.

This comes despite a -29% YoY drop in shipments to the US—the steepest decline since August—marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit decreases.

China has more than compensated for the US decline by expanding shipments to the EU, Africa, and other emerging markets.

China is steadily increasing trade with non-US partners.

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BREAKING: Oracle stock ($ORCL) drops more than 7% following reports that certain data centers intended for OpenAI have had their timeline pushed back from 2027 to 2028.

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BREAKING: Gold futures have climbed past $4,380 per ounce, marking a +65% increase year-to-date.

Gold is approaching a fresh all-time high.

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Student-loan debt is now at a record $1.65 trillion, per ABC.

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Silver has surged to its most overbought level in 45 years. This extreme technical condition highlights just how intense the recent rally has been.

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Michael Burry has warned that the United States may be moving toward full nationalization of the bond market. His statement suggests that government intervention could expand to the point where the Treasury or Federal Reserve effectively dominates bond issuance and trading, reducing the role of private market forces.

This kind of nationalization would imply that yields, pricing, and liquidity are increasingly controlled by policy decisions rather than market dynamics. Such a shift could have profound implications for investors, monetary policy, and the broader financial system, signaling a potential transformation in how debt markets function in the U.S.

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According to NBC, the Department of Homeland Security is proposing that all U.S. tourist travel visa holders be required to submit DNA in order to enter the United States.

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Key Events This Week:

1. October Retail Sales Data – Tuesday
2. November Jobs Report – Tuesday
3. November CPI Inflation Data – Thursday
4. December Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday
5. October PCE Inflation Data – Friday
6. November Existing Home Sales Data – Friday
7. MI Inflation Expectations Data – Friday
8. MI Consumer Sentiment Data – Friday
9. Five scheduled Fed speaker events

A significant backlog of economic data is set to be released this week.

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A Quiet Signal That Could Shake Global Markets

The Bank of Japan is indicating the possibility of a rate hike next week.

The decision is scheduled overnight between December 18 and 19, and markets are beginning to take notice.

This would mark the first rate increase in 11 months. Rumors began about a week ago and have only grown stronger since.

If rates are raised, markets are likely to move lower—though perhaps less sharply due to early front-running.

There is a genuine chance this BoJ meeting becomes one of the most significant macroeconomic events of the month and a key driver of what follows.

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Leverage is a powerful force:

Bitcoin has fallen below $86,000, wiping out $100 billion in market capitalization within 24 hours.

Over the past 4 hours, leveraged long liquidations have approached $400 million.

It’s an extraordinary moment to be trading crypto.

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Innovation is prevailing:

Tesla ($TSLA) is on course to achieve a record high close, having gained $850 billion since April 2025.

This milestone places Tesla’s valuation at $1.5 trillion.

Elon Musk has delivered once more.

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US households with assets are thriving:

Equities and mutual funds held by US households reached 307% of disposable income in Q2 2025, marking an all-time high.

Since Q4 2019, this share has risen by 43 points, far outpacing the growth in disposable income.

Over the same period, real estate as a share of disposable income climbed 33 points, reaching 216%.

When pension fund entitlements and other assets are included, total household assets have surged to a record 835% of disposable income.

This stands 55 percentage points above the 780% recorded in Q4 2019.

Asset owners are clearly winning.

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BREAKING: Silver prices have reached parity with oil for the first time since the 1980s.

A single ounce of silver is now valued at $63.80, which is $6.50 higher than a barrel of WTI Crude Oil priced at $57.30.

For context, in mid-2022 WTI Crude traded at 5.5 times the price of silver.

Since then, silver has surged by 206%, while oil has declined by 44%.

WTI Crude is heading toward its weakest annual performance since the 2020 pandemic slump, down 20%, whereas silver is on track for its strongest year since 1979, up 115%.

This marks a significant macroeconomic turning point.

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The US labor market is slowing sharply:

The total nonfarm hiring rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points in October, reaching 3.2%—its lowest level since the 2020 pandemic trough.

Over the past four years, this rate has fallen by 1.4 percentage points, now matching levels last seen in December 2008.

In contrast, during the 2001 recession, the hiring rate remained considerably higher, between 3.7% and 4.0%.

Additionally, the private hiring rate declined to 3.5% in October, its lowest since January 2011 and consistent with the 2020 lows.

The US labor market has effectively stalled.

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