The U.S. Dollar remains near historic extremes:

The U.S. Fed Trade Weighted Real Broad Dollar Index is trading close to its highest level in 40 years.

This index reflects the inflation-adjusted value of the Dollar against 26 currencies, weighted by relative competitiveness with trading partners.

Currently, the Inflation-Adjusted Broad Dollar Index stands about 20% above its long-term average.

Such elevated valuations have historically occurred only in the 1930s and the 1980s.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which tracks six major currencies—has fallen -8.4% year-to-date, putting it on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.

Historic trade-adjusted Dollar overvaluation continues to persist.

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Unrealized losses at Japan’s regional banks are mounting:

Unrealized losses on domestic bond holdings rose by +$4 billion in Fiscal Q2 2025, ending September 30, reaching a record $21.3 billion.

This represents a 260% increase since March 2024, when the Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time since 2007.

Regional banks are now facing their fifth consecutive year of unrealized losses on bond portfolios.

The pressure comes as Japanese government bonds have suffered their most severe price decline in history.

Japan’s bond market is clearly under strain.

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Over the past 72 hours:

1. Apple’s Chief of AI has stepped down.
2. Apple’s Head of UI Design has departed to join Meta.
3. Apple’s Chief of Policy has resigned.
4. Apple’s General Counsel has also stepped down.

What exactly is going on at Apple?

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BREAKING: President Trump to unveil $12B aid package for farmers hit by tariffs.

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Key Events This Week:

1. September JOLTS Job Openings data – Tuesday
2. December Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
3. Fed Chair Powell Press Conference – Wednesday
4. OPEC Monthly Report – Thursday
5. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
6. U.S. 30-Year Bond Auction – Thursday

The third rate cut of 2025 is scheduled for this week.

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Copper Prices Are Surging:

- Copper prices in London reached a record $11,620 per ton on Friday.
- Prices have climbed more than 30% this year, as investors anticipate a shortage driven by aggressive U.S. stockpiling ahead of potential import tariffs next year.
- Inventories at global exchanges have risen to 656,000 tons, the highest level since 2018.
- Roughly 60% of these inventories are now held in U.S. Comex warehouses.

As a result, the copper market is expected to enter a structural deficit next year. Copper prices are projected to move higher.

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BREAKING: The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet declined by $37 billion in November, falling to $6.53 trillion, its lowest level since April 2020.

The Fed has reduced its assets by $2.43 trillion, or -27%, during its quantitative tightening (QT) program, which concluded on December 1st after running for 3 years and 5 months.

This reversal unwound 51% of the +$4.81 trillion added during pandemic-era quantitative easing (QE).

- Treasury securities dropped $4 billion in November, to $4.19 trillion, the lowest since June 2020.
- Total decline: $1.58 trillion, or -27.4%, from the June 2022 peak.
- Mortgage-backed securities fell $16 billion last month, to $2.05 trillion, the lowest since November 2020.
- Total decline: $687 billion from the 2022 peak.

QT is now officially over.

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BREAKING: President Trump stated he will take part in the final decision regarding Netflix’s acquisition of Warner Brothers, adding that the deal “could be a problem.”

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President Trump says "at some point in the not too distant future, you will not have income tax to pay."

Trump says tariff revenue will soon eliminate personal income tax.

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BREAKING: President Trump announced that he will sign a “one rule” Executive Order on artificial intelligence this week.

“You can’t expect a company to secure 50 approvals every time they want to take action,” Trump stated.

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BREAKING: Paramount has launched a $30-per-share hostile bid for Warner Brothers, just days after Netflix secured victory in the bidding war.

Paramount stated that the “Netflix transaction offers Warner Brothers shareholders inferior and uncertain value.”

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BREAKING: Netflix stock ($NFLX) dropped -3%, hitting its lowest level since April 2025, following Paramount’s hostile bid for Warner Brothers.

The stock is now down -28% from the record high reached just six months ago.

Paramount’s offer places Warner Brothers at a valuation of $108 BILLION.

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BREAKING: Polymarket data shows a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday.

This would mark the 3rd rate cut of 2025.

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BREAKING: The U.S. Labor Department has announced the cancellation of the October Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report.

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US manufacturing employment is in sharp decline:

- Manufacturing payrolls fell by 18,000 in November, marking the second-largest drop since October 2023.
- According to the ADP report, this represents the fifth monthly decrease in 2024.
- Employment in the sector has now declined in 25 of the past 35 months.

At the same time, the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index slipped to 44.0 in November, registering its 10th consecutive month of contraction.

Historically, this index has served as a leading indicator for manufacturing jobs, pointing to the likelihood of further declines ahead.

The US manufacturing sector is in urgent need of support.

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BREAKING: The United States will permit Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China, according to Semafor.

- Nvidia stock ($NVDA) is rallying sharply on the announcement.
- This development would be major news if confirmed by President Trump.
- It signals that U.S. chipmakers could soon re-enter China’s AI market.

Buckle up.

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BREAKING: President Trump announced that he has spoken with China’s President Xi and approved the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China.

- Trump stated that 25% of the revenue will be directed to the United States.
- He added that the “same approach” will extend to AMD, Intel, and other companies.

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BREAKING: US gasoline prices have dropped to $2.95 per gallon, the lowest level in four years.

Prices are now moving in a sharp downward trend.

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BREAKING: President Trump has announced that the United States will allocate a “small portion” of tariff revenues to support farmers.

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The US debt crisis is entering uncharted territory:

- Over the past 12 months, the US Treasury has issued a record $25.4 trillion in T-Bills, pushing total Treasury issuance to an all-time high of $36.6 trillion.
- As a result, T-Bills now account for 69.4% of all Treasury issuance, near a historic peak.
- This share has increased by 27.6 percentage points since the low in November 2015.

In effect, the US government is relying more heavily on short-term debt to finance long-term obligations.

Consequently, interest expenses on public debt now move almost in lockstep with the Federal Reserve’s policy rate.

If inflation returns and the Fed is compelled to raise rates again, interest costs will surge to unprecedented levels.

The US debt crisis is clearly intensifying.

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BREAKING: President Trump has "authorized documentation" to implement a 5% tariff on Mexico and is demanding that the country release 200,000 acre-feet of water by December 31.

He accuses Mexico of causing harm to U.S. farmers.

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