Shocking statistic of the day:

Interest costs on U.S. debt now consume 24 cents of every $1 in government tax revenue.

The share of interest expense relative to collected taxes has nearly doubled over the past four years.

Over the last 12 months, interest expenditures totaled $1.24 trillion—an all-time high.

In October alone, gross interest payments hit a record $104.4 billion, the largest ever for that month.

Interest expense has become the second-largest government outlay, surpassing defense and healthcare, and trailing only Social Security at approximately $1.60 trillion.

No entity depends more on lower interest rates than the government itself.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

Investors are pouring into the silver market:

Physical silver-backed ETF holdings surged by +15.7 million ounces in November.

Year-to-date, silver ETF holdings have risen in 9 of the past 11 months.

At the same time, silver skew—an indicator of call-option volatility—climbed 8 percentage points over the last two weeks, reaching 10 percentage points. This marks the highest premium over put options since March 2022.

In other words, wagering on higher silver prices has become extremely costly.

Silver prices have soared +101% this year, positioning the metal for its second-strongest annual performance in history, trailing only the +435% rally in 1979.

Precious metals are blazing hot.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

Crypto ETFs are staging a rebound:

Crypto funds attracted +$1.1 billion in inflows last week, the largest in seven weeks.

This shift follows four straight weeks of withdrawals totaling -$4.7 billion.

The U.S. led with +$994 million in inflows, followed by Canada at +$98 million and Switzerland at +$24 million, while Germany registered -$57 million in outflows.

Bitcoin accounted for the largest share, with +$461 million in inflows, trailed by Ethereum at +$308 million.

Meanwhile, investors withdrew -$1.9 billion from short-bitcoin ETPs.

Upside momentum in crypto is returning.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

JENSEN HUANG:

"In the next 6-7 years you are going to see a bunch of small nuclear reactors... we will ALL be power generators, just like somebody's farm."

Are "mini" nuclear reactors the solution to the impending energy shortage caused by AI?

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

BREAKING: President Trump is reportedly considering appointing Treasury Secretary Bessent as his top economic adviser if Kevin Hassett becomes the next Fed Chair.

This would be in addition to Bessent’s current role as Treasury Secretary.

A new era of financial policy appears to be approaching.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

Affordability of essentials in the US keeps worsening:

- Since Jan 2021:
• Food away from home ↑ +28% (record high)
• Shelter ↑ +27% (record)
• Food at home ↑ +25%
• Services ex-rent ↑ +24%

- Wages over same period ↑ just +20%

- Shelter costs ↑ nearly +50% since 2015 — steepest 10yr rise since mid-1990s

Wage growth lags necessities. Asset owners remain the only winners.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

The Bank of Japan’s ETF gains are soaring:

- The market value of the BoJ’s ETF holdings climbed +18.5% year-on-year over six months, reaching a record ¥83.2 trillion.
- Paper gains on these holdings rose to an all-time high of ¥46.0 trillion, fueled by the stock market rally.
- Unrealized ETF profits in just six months have already exceeded the full-year unrealized gains recorded in fiscal 2023 and 2024.
- Revenues from ETF dividends also surged +18.7% YoY, totaling ¥1.5 trillion.
- In September, the central bank announced plans to sell ETFs at a pace of ¥330 billion annually—a rate that would require more than 100 years to fully liquidate its holdings.
- At the same time, unrealized losses on its bond portfolio spiked +350% YoY, reaching ¥32.8 trillion, as bond yields continued to rise.

Japan’s monetary policy is pulling in multiple directions.

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President Trump is weighing whether to permit Nvidia ($NVDA) to sell its advanced H200 AI chips to China, with high-level talks reportedly in preparation. The decision is expected to be made directly by Trump, according to recent reports.

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BREAKING: U.S. employers announced 71,321 new layoffs in November, raising the 2025 total to 1.17 million job cuts.

This marks the first year with more than 1.1 million layoffs since the pandemic lockdowns in 2020.

American consumers are facing serious challenges.

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U.S. small business employment is deteriorating:

Small firms cut 120,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since May 2020, according to the ADP Employment Report.

Companies with 1–19 employees reduced payrolls by 46,000, while those with 20–49 employees cut 74,000 jobs.

This marks the sixth monthly decline in the past seven months.

Over this period, employment at small firms has fallen by 264,000.

As a result, the three‑month average dropped to –59,333, the weakest level since the 2020 pandemic.

Further rate cuts are on the way.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

We are currently facing:

1. The largest technological boom since the advent of the internet
2. Continued Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid the AI surge
3. Trump’s forthcoming announcement of a new Fed Chair
4. Over $700B in annual technology capital expenditures
5. The conclusion of Quantitative Tightening (QT)
6. Broad deregulation measures initiated by the SEC
7. The most market-conscious U.S. President to date
8. More than $2 trillion in annual deficit spending
9. 13% year-over-year earnings growth in the S&P 500
10. The resurgence of global fiscal stimulus

What's the bear case here?

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

This is remarkable:

Since the launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, the S&P 500 excluding AI-related names has risen +25%.

That equates to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of +8% over the period.

In contrast, the full S&P 500, including AI stocks, has surged +73%, corresponding to a +20% CAGR.

In simple terms, without AI stocks, overall market performance would have been at least 2.5 times weaker.

Technology stocks remain the driving force of global markets.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

BREAKING: AMD ($AMD) CEO Lisa Su has announced that the company will pay a 15% tax on MI308 chip exports to China.

Reports surfaced last night that President Trump is considering allowing Nvidia to sell its H200 chip to China.

This development closely resembles the rumored Nvidia–AMD deal with President Trump on August 10, under which both companies could export certain AI chips to China subject to a 15% tariff.

If the U.S. AI chip market even partially reopens to China, it could become the biggest market catalyst of the year—particularly since Nvidia has almost entirely written off its China business in recent guidance.

AI chip policy may be on the verge of significant change.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

JUST IN: “Trump Accounts” will allow tax-free contributions, with hundreds of major companies expected to participate.

More than 25 million U.S. children will each receive $1,000 from the Trump Administration, $250 from Michael Dell, along with all additional tax-free contributions deposited into these accounts.

If invested until age 20+, these accounts could generate trillions of dollars for children.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

Central banks are stepping up gold purchases:

Global central banks acquired +53 tonnes of gold in October, the highest monthly total since November 2024.

This represents a +194% increase compared to July and marks the third consecutive month of accelerating demand.

Over the first 10 months of the year, central banks have purchased 254 tonnes of gold, putting them on pace for the fourth-largest annual total this century.

The surge was driven by the National Bank of Poland, which returned to the market in October with a purchase of 16 tonnes, raising its reserves to a record 531 tonnes, equal to roughly 26% of its total FX reserves.

Official central bank demand for gold remains historically elevated.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

We are witnessing historic market gains:

The S&P 500 has climbed +68% over the past 36 months, marking its strongest 3-year performance since 2021.

This also represents the second-best run since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, surpassing even the recovery that followed the 2008 Financial Crisis.

The last comparable stretch occurred in the 1990s, when the S&P 500 delivered a +120% gain over three years.

This is the 16th instance since 1930 where the 3-year rolling return has been +1.5 standard deviations above its long-term average.

At the same time, the market has avoided a negative 36-month return for 13 consecutive years.

Bullish momentum remains exceptionally strong.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

The U.S. Dollar remains near historic extremes:

The U.S. Fed Trade Weighted Real Broad Dollar Index is trading close to its highest level in 40 years.

This index reflects the inflation-adjusted value of the Dollar against 26 currencies, weighted by relative competitiveness with trading partners.

Currently, the Inflation-Adjusted Broad Dollar Index stands about 20% above its long-term average.

Such elevated valuations have historically occurred only in the 1930s and the 1980s.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which tracks six major currencies—has fallen -8.4% year-to-date, putting it on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.

Historic trade-adjusted Dollar overvaluation continues to persist.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

Unrealized losses at Japan’s regional banks are mounting:

Unrealized losses on domestic bond holdings rose by +$4 billion in Fiscal Q2 2025, ending September 30, reaching a record $21.3 billion.

This represents a 260% increase since March 2024, when the Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time since 2007.

Regional banks are now facing their fifth consecutive year of unrealized losses on bond portfolios.

The pressure comes as Japanese government bonds have suffered their most severe price decline in history.

Japan’s bond market is clearly under strain.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

Over the past 72 hours:

1. Apple’s Chief of AI has stepped down.
2. Apple’s Head of UI Design has departed to join Meta.
3. Apple’s Chief of Policy has resigned.
4. Apple’s General Counsel has also stepped down.

What exactly is going on at Apple?

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

BREAKING: President Trump to unveil $12B aid package for farmers hit by tariffs.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

Key Events This Week:

1. September JOLTS Job Openings data – Tuesday
2. December Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
3. Fed Chair Powell Press Conference – Wednesday
4. OPEC Monthly Report – Thursday
5. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
6. U.S. 30-Year Bond Auction – Thursday

The third rate cut of 2025 is scheduled for this week.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI