The Federal Reserve has officially ended quantitative tightening (QT).

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BREAKING: President Trump stated that his selection for the new Federal Reserve Chair will be announced “early next year.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that “substantial tax refunds” are expected in Q1 2026.

Rate cuts, tax refunds, and stimulus checks are on the way.

Own assets.

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🇺🇸 Probability of the Fed reducing rates by 25 bps on December 10 is 92% based on Polymarket ratings.

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Tether bought more gold last quarter than every central bank, per FT.

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President Trump has effectively announced that Kevin Hassett will serve as the next Federal Reserve Chair.

The year 2026 is shaping up to be an eventful one.

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This is historic:

The Magnificent 7 stocks have surged +300% since ChatGPT’s launch on November 30, 2022.

That performance is more than 4 TIMES the S&P 500’s +72% gain.

During the same period, the Nasdaq 100 has advanced +120%.

Remarkably, the Magnificent 7 have even outpaced silver and gold, which rose +173% and +142%, respectively.

The only asset to exceed the Magnificent 7’s rally?

Bitcoin, which has climbed +426% since ChatGPT’s debut.

We are truly witnessing history on multiple fronts.

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BREAKING: Japan’s 30-year Government Bond Yield has climbed to a record 3.43%, as the Bank of Japan weighs the possibility of RAISING interest rates.

This development follows only days after Japan approved a $135 billion stimulus package.

Stimulus expansion alongside rate hikes?
Something doesn’t add up.

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BREAKING: US ADP Private Payrolls declined by -32,000 jobs in November, defying expectations of a +10,000 job increase.

With this unexpected drop, pressure mounts on the Federal Reserve, which may be compelled to cut rates once more.

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BREAKING: The SEC is intensifying its crackdown on highly leveraged ETFs in response to the recent spike in market volatility.

The agency has issued multiple warning letters to ETF providers, effectively halting the launch of products offering 3x–5x leverage.

“We write to express concern regarding the registration of ETFs that seek to provide more than 200% (2x) leveraged exposure to underlying indices or securities,” the SEC stated.

Leverage is evidently spiraling beyond control.

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Shocking statistic of the day:

Interest costs on U.S. debt now consume 24 cents of every $1 in government tax revenue.

The share of interest expense relative to collected taxes has nearly doubled over the past four years.

Over the last 12 months, interest expenditures totaled $1.24 trillion—an all-time high.

In October alone, gross interest payments hit a record $104.4 billion, the largest ever for that month.

Interest expense has become the second-largest government outlay, surpassing defense and healthcare, and trailing only Social Security at approximately $1.60 trillion.

No entity depends more on lower interest rates than the government itself.

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Investors are pouring into the silver market:

Physical silver-backed ETF holdings surged by +15.7 million ounces in November.

Year-to-date, silver ETF holdings have risen in 9 of the past 11 months.

At the same time, silver skew—an indicator of call-option volatility—climbed 8 percentage points over the last two weeks, reaching 10 percentage points. This marks the highest premium over put options since March 2022.

In other words, wagering on higher silver prices has become extremely costly.

Silver prices have soared +101% this year, positioning the metal for its second-strongest annual performance in history, trailing only the +435% rally in 1979.

Precious metals are blazing hot.

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Crypto ETFs are staging a rebound:

Crypto funds attracted +$1.1 billion in inflows last week, the largest in seven weeks.

This shift follows four straight weeks of withdrawals totaling -$4.7 billion.

The U.S. led with +$994 million in inflows, followed by Canada at +$98 million and Switzerland at +$24 million, while Germany registered -$57 million in outflows.

Bitcoin accounted for the largest share, with +$461 million in inflows, trailed by Ethereum at +$308 million.

Meanwhile, investors withdrew -$1.9 billion from short-bitcoin ETPs.

Upside momentum in crypto is returning.

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JENSEN HUANG:

"In the next 6-7 years you are going to see a bunch of small nuclear reactors... we will ALL be power generators, just like somebody's farm."

Are "mini" nuclear reactors the solution to the impending energy shortage caused by AI?

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BREAKING: President Trump is reportedly considering appointing Treasury Secretary Bessent as his top economic adviser if Kevin Hassett becomes the next Fed Chair.

This would be in addition to Bessent’s current role as Treasury Secretary.

A new era of financial policy appears to be approaching.

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Affordability of essentials in the US keeps worsening:

- Since Jan 2021:
• Food away from home ↑ +28% (record high)
• Shelter ↑ +27% (record)
• Food at home ↑ +25%
• Services ex-rent ↑ +24%

- Wages over same period ↑ just +20%

- Shelter costs ↑ nearly +50% since 2015 — steepest 10yr rise since mid-1990s

Wage growth lags necessities. Asset owners remain the only winners.

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The Bank of Japan’s ETF gains are soaring:

- The market value of the BoJ’s ETF holdings climbed +18.5% year-on-year over six months, reaching a record ¥83.2 trillion.
- Paper gains on these holdings rose to an all-time high of ¥46.0 trillion, fueled by the stock market rally.
- Unrealized ETF profits in just six months have already exceeded the full-year unrealized gains recorded in fiscal 2023 and 2024.
- Revenues from ETF dividends also surged +18.7% YoY, totaling ¥1.5 trillion.
- In September, the central bank announced plans to sell ETFs at a pace of ¥330 billion annually—a rate that would require more than 100 years to fully liquidate its holdings.
- At the same time, unrealized losses on its bond portfolio spiked +350% YoY, reaching ¥32.8 trillion, as bond yields continued to rise.

Japan’s monetary policy is pulling in multiple directions.

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President Trump is weighing whether to permit Nvidia ($NVDA) to sell its advanced H200 AI chips to China, with high-level talks reportedly in preparation. The decision is expected to be made directly by Trump, according to recent reports.

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BREAKING: U.S. employers announced 71,321 new layoffs in November, raising the 2025 total to 1.17 million job cuts.

This marks the first year with more than 1.1 million layoffs since the pandemic lockdowns in 2020.

American consumers are facing serious challenges.

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U.S. small business employment is deteriorating:

Small firms cut 120,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since May 2020, according to the ADP Employment Report.

Companies with 1–19 employees reduced payrolls by 46,000, while those with 20–49 employees cut 74,000 jobs.

This marks the sixth monthly decline in the past seven months.

Over this period, employment at small firms has fallen by 264,000.

As a result, the three‑month average dropped to –59,333, the weakest level since the 2020 pandemic.

Further rate cuts are on the way.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

We are currently facing:

1. The largest technological boom since the advent of the internet
2. Continued Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid the AI surge
3. Trump’s forthcoming announcement of a new Fed Chair
4. Over $700B in annual technology capital expenditures
5. The conclusion of Quantitative Tightening (QT)
6. Broad deregulation measures initiated by the SEC
7. The most market-conscious U.S. President to date
8. More than $2 trillion in annual deficit spending
9. 13% year-over-year earnings growth in the S&P 500
10. The resurgence of global fiscal stimulus

What's the bear case here?

🛫@MarketMatrixAI

This is remarkable:

Since the launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, the S&P 500 excluding AI-related names has risen +25%.

That equates to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of +8% over the period.

In contrast, the full S&P 500, including AI stocks, has surged +73%, corresponding to a +20% CAGR.

In simple terms, without AI stocks, overall market performance would have been at least 2.5 times weaker.

Technology stocks remain the driving force of global markets.

🛫@MarketMatrixAI