What is happening in crypto?
Over the past 41 days, crypto has wiped out -$1.1 trillion in market cap, averaging -$27 billion per day.
Total crypto market cap now sits roughly ~10% BELOW the levels seen during the record -$19 billion liquidation on October 10th.
This is a structural move. Here’s the breakdown.
Over the past 41 days, crypto has wiped out -$1.1 trillion in market cap, averaging -$27 billion per day.
Total crypto market cap now sits roughly ~10% BELOW the levels seen during the record -$19 billion liquidation on October 10th.
This is a structural move. Here’s the breakdown.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
What is happening in crypto? Over the past 41 days, crypto has wiped out -$1.1 trillion in market cap, averaging -$27 billion per day. Total crypto market cap now sits roughly ~10% BELOW the levels seen during the record -$19 billion liquidation on October…
This decline has been unusual for one core reason:
There haven’t been any major bearish developments on the fundamental side of crypto.
Just days ago, President Trump said making America “number one in crypto” is his top priority.
Yet Bitcoin has fallen -25% in a single month.
There haven’t been any major bearish developments on the fundamental side of crypto.
Just days ago, President Trump said making America “number one in crypto” is his top priority.
Yet Bitcoin has fallen -25% in a single month.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
This decline has been unusual for one core reason: There haven’t been any major bearish developments on the fundamental side of crypto. Just days ago, President Trump said making America “number one in crypto” is his top priority. Yet Bitcoin has fallen…
The downturn also appears highly structural and mechanical.
It kicked off with institutional outflows in mid-to-late October.
In the first week of November alone, crypto funds recorded -$1.2 billion in outflows.
The issue is that these outflows collided with extremely high leverage.
It kicked off with institutional outflows in mid-to-late October.
In the first week of November alone, crypto funds recorded -$1.2 billion in outflows.
The issue is that these outflows collided with extremely high leverage.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
The downturn also appears highly structural and mechanical. It kicked off with institutional outflows in mid-to-late October. In the first week of November alone, crypto funds recorded -$1.2 billion in outflows. The issue is that these outflows collided…
Leverage in crypto works differently.
Speculators often take positions levered 20x, 50x, or even 100x.
At 100x leverage, a simple 2% move is enough to wipe out the entire position.
When millions of traders are levered, these tiny swings trigger cascading liquidations.
Speculators often take positions levered 20x, 50x, or even 100x.
At 100x leverage, a simple 2% move is enough to wipe out the entire position.
When millions of traders are levered, these tiny swings trigger cascading liquidations.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
Leverage in crypto works differently. Speculators often take positions levered 20x, 50x, or even 100x. At 100x leverage, a simple 2% move is enough to wipe out the entire position. When millions of traders are levered, these tiny swings trigger cascading…
That’s why sudden drops in crypto lead directly to liquidation spikes.
On October 10th, the -$19.2 billion liquidation wave produced the first-ever $20,000 BTC daily candlestick.
Extreme leverage has created a market that reacts like it’s made of glass.
On October 10th, the -$19.2 billion liquidation wave produced the first-ever $20,000 BTC daily candlestick.
Extreme leverage has created a market that reacts like it’s made of glass.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
That’s why sudden drops in crypto lead directly to liquidation spikes. On October 10th, the -$19.2 billion liquidation wave produced the first-ever $20,000 BTC daily candlestick. Extreme leverage has created a market that reacts like it’s made of glass.
In just the last 16 days, we’ve already seen three sessions with over $1 billion in liquidations.
Daily wipeouts of $500+ million have essentially become routine.
In periods of thin volume, these pressures create violent price swings—up and down.
Daily wipeouts of $500+ million have essentially become routine.
In periods of thin volume, these pressures create violent price swings—up and down.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
In just the last 16 days, we’ve already seen three sessions with over $1 billion in liquidations. Daily wipeouts of $500+ million have essentially become routine. In periods of thin volume, these pressures create violent price swings—up and down.
This also explains the rapid mood swings in sentiment.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now plunged to 10, “Extreme Fear.”
That matches the February 2025 bottom, even though Bitcoin is still up +25% from the April low.
Leverage is turbocharging sentiment volatility.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now plunged to 10, “Extreme Fear.”
That matches the February 2025 bottom, even though Bitcoin is still up +25% from the April low.
Leverage is turbocharging sentiment volatility.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
This also explains the rapid mood swings in sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now plunged to 10, “Extreme Fear.” That matches the February 2025 bottom, even though Bitcoin is still up +25% from the April low. Leverage is turbocharging sentiment…
Want another angle?
Look at Bitcoin versus Gold since the October 10th liquidation.
For more than a year, Bitcoin and Gold moved closely together as safe haven assets.
Since early October, Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 25 percentage points.
Look at Bitcoin versus Gold since the October 10th liquidation.
For more than a year, Bitcoin and Gold moved closely together as safe haven assets.
Since early October, Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 25 percentage points.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
Want another angle? Look at Bitcoin versus Gold since the October 10th liquidation. For more than a year, Bitcoin and Gold moved closely together as safe haven assets. Since early October, Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 25 percentage points.
The pattern is even more dramatic outside Bitcoin.
Ether, $ETH, is now officially down -8.5% year-to-date.
Since October 6th, it has dropped a massive -35%.
This goes past bear market territory, even as virtually ALL risky assets have rallied.
Ether, $ETH, is now officially down -8.5% year-to-date.
Since October 6th, it has dropped a massive -35%.
This goes past bear market territory, even as virtually ALL risky assets have rallied.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
The pattern is even more dramatic outside Bitcoin. Ether, $ETH, is now officially down -8.5% year-to-date. Since October 6th, it has dropped a massive -35%. This goes past bear market territory, even as virtually ALL risky assets have rallied.
Zooming out, crypto appears to be in a “structural” bear market.
Crypto’s fundamental value has strengthened, but the market mechanics have shifted.
In any efficient market, the distortions eventually clear.
The bottom looks close.
Crypto’s fundamental value has strengthened, but the market mechanics have shifted.
In any efficient market, the distortions eventually clear.
The bottom looks close.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
Zooming out, crypto appears to be in a “structural” bear market. Crypto’s fundamental value has strengthened, but the market mechanics have shifted. In any efficient market, the distortions eventually clear. The bottom looks close.
These dynamics are echoing far beyond crypto itself.
The macro landscape is shifting, and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto all remain investable.
The macro landscape is shifting, and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto all remain investable.
Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
These dynamics are echoing far beyond crypto itself. The macro landscape is shifting, and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto all remain investable.
Here’s the bigger picture: global M2 money supply has reached a record $137 trillion.
Japan is preparing $110B+ in stimulus, and $2,000 tariff “dividends” are on the way.
This entire downturn is more of a “growing pain” than a collapse for crypto.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
Japan is preparing $110B+ in stimulus, and $2,000 tariff “dividends” are on the way.
This entire downturn is more of a “growing pain” than a collapse for crypto.
Jump to the first post to read the full thread from the start.
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BREAKING: Japan’s 20-year Government Bond yield has jumped to 2.75%, the highest level ever recorded, as the government moves forward with a $110 billion stimulus package.
This chart is absolutely wild.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
This chart is absolutely wild.
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BREAKING: Bitcoin has dropped below $93,000 for the first time since April 28th.
The isolated crypto selloff has now wiped out -$1.2 TRILLION in market cap over the past 5 weeks.
Liquidations continue to climb.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
The isolated crypto selloff has now wiped out -$1.2 TRILLION in market cap over the past 5 weeks.
Liquidations continue to climb.
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BREAKING: Crypto liquidations have surpassed -$800 million over the past 24 hours as total crypto market cap losses approach -30% since October 6th.
Once again, this comes down to leverage and liquidations.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
Once again, this comes down to leverage and liquidations.
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BREAKING: Ether, $ETH, has fallen below $3,000 for the first time since July 2025.
ETH is now down nearly -40% since October 6th.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
ETH is now down nearly -40% since October 6th.
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Crypto liquidations continue:
Another $1 billion in levered crypto positions has been liquidated in the past 24 hours.
This pushes total liquidations to -$4.5 billion over the last 7 days.
Notably, liquidations jumped by $300 million in just the last 4 hours.
It almost looks like a major player was liquidated today, triggering Bitcoin’s drop into $91,000 at 3:00 PM ET.
Wild times for crypto, to say the least.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
Another $1 billion in levered crypto positions has been liquidated in the past 24 hours.
This pushes total liquidations to -$4.5 billion over the last 7 days.
Notably, liquidations jumped by $300 million in just the last 4 hours.
It almost looks like a major player was liquidated today, triggering Bitcoin’s drop into $91,000 at 3:00 PM ET.
Wild times for crypto, to say the least.
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BREAKING: Ford has finalized an agreement with Amazon to offer certified used cars directly through Amazon’s website.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
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BREAKING: The Dow drops nearly -700 points as the decline in US equities accelerates.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
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US executives and US consumers are looking at inflation from completely opposite angles:
Mentions of “inflation” on S&P 500 earnings calls fell to 4,300 this quarter, the lowest level since Q4 2020.
Over the last three years, mentions have dropped by -32,700, or -88%.
For comparison, in the first quarter of this year, there were 11,700 mentions.
This stands in stark contrast to consumer expectations, which see inflation rising 4.7% over the next 12 months.
Households expect a 3.2% increase in inflation over the next year, according to the New York Fed survey.
Corporate America has largely moved past inflation, while Main Street is still worried.
🛫 @MarketMatrixAI
Mentions of “inflation” on S&P 500 earnings calls fell to 4,300 this quarter, the lowest level since Q4 2020.
Over the last three years, mentions have dropped by -32,700, or -88%.
For comparison, in the first quarter of this year, there were 11,700 mentions.
This stands in stark contrast to consumer expectations, which see inflation rising 4.7% over the next 12 months.
Households expect a 3.2% increase in inflation over the next year, according to the New York Fed survey.
Corporate America has largely moved past inflation, while Main Street is still worried.
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