BREAKING: President Trump announces that he will be paying a “tariff dividend” of at least $2,000 per person.

Stimulus checks are officially back.

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US bond market volatility is falling:

The MOVE Index fell to 67 points last week, its lowest level since November 2021.

This metric, also known as the “VIX of bonds,” measures yield volatility across 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries.

The index has dropped -73 points since April as the bond market stabilized after President Trump’s "Liberation Day" sell-off.

Easing volatility has also been supported by 2 Fed rate cuts in September and October and corporate credit spreads at their lowest level this century.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen -70 basis points to 4.10% since January.

US bond markets are stabilizing.

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JUST IN: A deal in the Senate to end the government shutdown is within reach, multiple sources from both parties per Axios

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JUST IN : Bitcoin $BTC scores a weekly close above the 50-week moving average ✅ The show goes on 📈📈

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BREAKING: Senators reach deal to end federal government shutdown:

- the agreement funds the government through january 30 and schedules a december vote on the affordable care act bill.
- the deal reverses president Trump’s firings of federal employees and adds provisions to prevent future such actions.
- it also ensures food stamps are funded through fiscal year 2026, according to sources.

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Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to $2,000 Tariff Dividend - Monday

2. US Government Shutdown Enters Day 41 - Monday

3. NFIB Small Business Index data - Tuesday

4. OPEC Monthly Report - Wednesday

5. Federal Budget Balance data - Thursday

6. 9 Fed Speaker Events This Week

Expect another volatile week ahead.

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BREAKING: US Senate has officially voted to end the shutdown, sending it to the House of Representatives for a final vote to re-open the government.

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BREAKING: Foreigners seeking visas to live in the U.S. might be rejected if they have certain medical conditions, like obesity, per CBS

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The US Trump Administration is reportedly working on 15 year car loans.

US President Donald Trump also posted yesterday regarding allowing 50 year mortgages.

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Call your US government.

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India’s gold ETF inflows are skyrocketing:

Gold ETF inflows in India hit +$2.9 billion in the first 10 months of 2025.

This equates to ~26 tonnes of physical gold.

This also nearly matches the combined total annual inflows from 2020 to 2024.

October alone saw +$850 million in inflows, following a record +$942 million in September.

As a result, total AUM in Indian gold ETFs reached a record $11 billion, with gold holdings of 83.5 tonnes.

The gold rush in India shows no signs of slowing.

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Nvidia now makes up 8.5% of the S&P 500, bigger than 6 of 11 sectors, and larger than Materials + Real Estate + Utilities combined.

With a $5.1T market cap, it's worth more than the bottom 240 S&P 500 firms combined and bigger than the entire stock markets of Italy, Spain, Netherlands & UAE.

Now trails only US, China, Japan, Germany & India.

Nvidia’s rally is truly unprecedented.


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Liquidity Stress Is Rising

- The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) just topped $900B, its highest since 2021—up $666B since June.
- This drains reserves from the banking system, making repo borrowing more expensive.
- The repo market now handles $3T daily, triple what it was 3 years ago.
- If this pressure continues, the Fed may be forced to expand its balance sheet to stabilize liquidity.

Cracks are forming. The Fed may have to act.

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OpenAI’s journey is wild:

The company was founded in 2015 as a nonprofit with $1 billion in funding.

In 2019, Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI under a multi-year partnership to build AI supercomputing technologies.

By the ChatGPT launch in November 2022, the company was already worth ~$20 billion.

Between November 2022 and March 2025, its valuation has surged +1,400%, to ~$300 billion.

Today, the company’s valuation is estimated at $500 billion, TRIPLING over the last 12 months.

The AI revolution is moving faster than ever.

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Bitcoin $BTC Death Cross is imminent ☠️🚨

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Ethereum $ETH will more than double by January and could hit as high as $12,000 says Tom Lee

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U.S. Equity Risk Premium is now negative 🚨 On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks offer zero return for investors 👀

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BREAKING: President Trump has officially signed a bill ending the US government shutdown.

The record setting 43-day government shutdown is over.

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Silver prices are quietly up +11% over the last 5 days, even as the government shutdown is about to end.

If the $2,000 stimulus checks actually happen, momentum is going to accelerate quickly.

Gold and silver always know first.

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BREAKING: The White House says October jobs and inflation data may never be released.

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Gold prices surge above $4,200/oz and Silver prices rise nearly +5% on the day.

Markets know stimulus checks, rate cuts, and inflation are all converging.

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