️Macro Alpha Analytics
我的判断： Trump 最终 有可能 TACO， 但他通常会先把筹码打到最大。 他的谈判模式一直很清晰： Trump = Escalation → Negotiation 先极限施压，再进入谈判。 历史其实已经发生过很多次。 2017 北韩危机 Trump 曾公开放话 “fire and fury”。 市场当时一度担心战争爆发。 但最后的结果是： 🌎 与 Kim Jong Un 举行历史性会面 2020 伊朗事件 美国击杀 Qasem Soleimani。 当时全球市场认为： 中东大战可能爆发。…
BBC News
Trump says Iran war will be over 'pretty quickly' but US hasn't 'won enough' yet
Oil prices fall as Trump threatens Iran with 'fire and fury' over Strait of Hormuz
👍2
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump says the war with Iran could end soon.
👏13😁3
️Macro Alpha Analytics
除非发生以下情况，油价才会真正突破并站稳 $100：长期供应破坏： 例如伊朗主要油田被彻底炸毁，修复需要数年，导致“锚”直接从 $66 拔起来跳到 $90。那么：$90 x 1.3 = $117$。这才是真正的结构性大涨。
最高 119.48
战争溢价正在被挤掉，油价最终还是会回归基本面。
$70–75：比较合理的长期均衡价
$65–70：如果战争风险完全消退
市场最恐慌的阶段，已经过去了。
战争溢价正在被挤掉，油价最终还是会回归基本面。
$70–75：比较合理的长期均衡价
$65–70：如果战争风险完全消退
市场最恐慌的阶段，已经过去了。
👍13❤3🤯2😁1😭1
Billionaire Quek Leng Chan’s Guocoland Sells 90% Of Prime Singapore Residential Project During Weekend Launch
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanburgos/2026/03/08/billionaire-quek-leng-chans-guocoland-sells-90-of-prime-singapore-residential-project-during-weekend-launch/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanburgos/2026/03/08/billionaire-quek-leng-chans-guocoland-sells-90-of-prime-singapore-residential-project-during-weekend-launch/
Forbes
Billionaire Quek Leng Chan’s Guocoland Sells 90% Of Prime Singapore Residential Project During Weekend Launch
Billionaire Quek Leng Chan's Guocoland sold 410 of the 455-unit River Modern residential condominium near the Singapore River over the weekend launch, adding to signs of resilient demand in the city-state.
US investigates manufacturing overcapacity in 15 economies, including Malaysia, EU | The Star
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/03/12/us-investigates-manufacturing-overcapacity-in-15-economies-including-malaysia-eu
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/03/12/us-investigates-manufacturing-overcapacity-in-15-economies-including-malaysia-eu
The Star
US investigates manufacturing overcapacity in 15 economies, including Malaysia, EU
KUALA LUMPUR: The United States (US) has initiated investigations into the acts, policies, and practices of 15 economies, including Malaysia and the European Union (EU), under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity…
🤯8👍2