Kevin McCarthy has lost his gavel.

Hardline Republicans engineered his removal as House speaker, the first such ouster in US history.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cx5iA-Xr2ss/

The Federal Reserve is now on Instagram and Threads!

Bottom-line: High Five.

Yields on 30-year Treasuries hit 5% for the first time since 2007 — and some are warning the 10-year is next. Yields on the benchmark reached 4.88% today before the selloff paused.

도이치뱅크가 매 주 집계하는 투자자들의 투자 노출도 보고서 제목,

- At Neutral, Oct 13 2023

- Dipped Further Underweight, Oct 6 2023

- Sharp Cut Back To Underweight, Sep 29 2023

- The Pullback Extends, Sep 22 2023

- Rates Vol At An 18-Month Low, Sep 15 2023

- In Line With A Typical Pullback, Sep 8 2023

- Almost Back At Neutral, Aug 18 2023

- The Pare Back Continues, Aug 11 2023

Bottom-line: TSMC가 실적을 발표하며 투자자들에게 반도체 시장이 바닥을 통과하며, 스마트폰 및 컴퓨터 시장 수요도 안정을 찾고 있다고 함. 또한 모바일 AI 수요는 이미 증가 중이라 밝힘. 유럽 시장이 열린 현재 유일하게 상승 중인 업종은 기술주며, ASML의 경우 부진한 실적에도 불구 2025년이 상당한 실적 성장의 해가 될 것이라 했고, TSMC의 낙관론도 오늘 상승에 도움을 주고 있다고 보여짐. SAP 또한 강한 클라우드 성장에 경기 둔화 우려를 잠식하며 상승 중임.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s outlook shows signs that demand in the semiconductor market is stabilizing heading into 2024. TSMC tightened its capex forecast, showing the struggles it faces amid still-high inventories. But the company, the primary chipmaker to Nvidia and Apple, posted a revenue beat. TSMC CEO C. C. Wei said there’s early signs of demand stabilization in the PC and smartphone markets and the chip market is very close to the bottom. The rise in demand for mobile AI chips - for end-user products - is already underway, he said at a briefing. TSMC’s American Depositary Receipts rose ~2.4% pre-market. Chip-equipment maker ASML’s 3Q orders plunged, sending the stock down Wednesday; TSMC is one of ASML’s biggest customers. But ASML promised that 2025 will be a “significant growth year,” which may help the sector find a bottom, Henry Ren wrote. ASML is rising today, perhaps reflecting some optimism in TSMC. Tech is the only sector rising in early European trading. The sector was also helped by signs of strong cloud revenue growth at SAP offsetting fears of a slowdown.

S&P 500 turned red after Powell noted that rates perhaps haven’t been high enough, long enough to impact the economy. He said there is no precision in policymakers’ understanding of how long lags are.

Ten-year yields retreated sharply after rising above 5% for the first time since 2007 in a swing of almost 20 bps.

Bill Ackman covered his short bet on Treasuries, saying “there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds.” The Pershing Square founder wrote that the US economy “is slowing faster than recent data suggests.”

Microsoft jumped postmarket after first-quarter sales topped estimates. Cloud revenue and profit also beat.

Alphabet sank after Google's quarterly cloud revenue trailed projections.

Snap soared more than 20%, returning to growth in the third quarter on an improved ad business.

Visa rose after its earnings beat. It authorized a new $25 billion share buyback.

Bottom-line: 올해 내도록 중국 주식은 동일한 움직임을 보여왔음. 시장 참여자들이 기대하던 정책이 일부 발표되고, 개장 직후 상승, 이후 해결되지 않은 정책으로 우려가 쏠리며 상승분을 모두 반납하는 형태였음. 오늘 또한 마찬가지로 개장 후 한시간도 그 상승 효과를 유지하지 못했음. CSI 300 지수는 지난 해 말 경제재개에 대한 기대로 이어진 상승 랠리를 모두 반납하면서 중국 정부가 내놓는 부양책이 여전히 시장 참여자들을 만족시키지 못하고 있음을 보여줬을 뿐임.

It’s a familiar pattern that’s played out time and again during China’s stock market rout this year: Bold policy steps to rejuvenate the economy spark a flicker of enthusiasm at the start of the trading day but the recovery fails to last and concern swiftly returns to the troubled property sector. Such was the price action that greeted the government’s latest push to boost growth, which involved a rare increase in the budget deficit ratio and President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented visit to the central bank. The rally lost steam less than an hour after the market opened and the main equity indexes ended Wednesday with only modest gains. The CSI 300 Index had erased all the gains seen during their massive reopening rally that took off late last year. The Shanghai Composite Index was also on the brink of breaking through a critical 18-year trend-line that had offered support during previous routs.

Bottom-line: 중국 증시는 위와 같은 지속적인 실망 매도로 인해 기술적으로 투자자들의 항복으로 여겨지는 지점에 가까워졌음. 현재 주식 가격이 200일 이동평균선 위에 위치하는 비율이 20%에 불과한데, 0%~10%까지 그 비율이 줄어들면 보통 주가 반전의 신호로 여겨지고 있음. 또한 상대강도지수(14일)가 30 미만에 위치하는 주식의 비중도 40%가 넘는데, 이 또한 50%를 넘을 경우 단기적 반등의 신호로 여겨지고 있음.

Equities in China are getting closer to a tradeable bottom, based on internal measures of breadth, improving liquidity conditions, and tentative signs the property market may be troughing. The percentage of stocks in the CSI 300 trading above their 200-day moving average is now about 20%, and dropping fast. Levels between 0% and 10% have often marked reversals in the index. The index itself is also well below its 200-day moving average. That also applies to the percentage of stocks whose 14-day RSI is below 30. This is at over 40%; previously when it has been more than 50% it has often marked at least a short-term bounce in price.

The US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years last quarter, fueled by a surge in consumer spending.

Bottom-line: 중국 주요 주가지수가 -10% 추가 하락할 경우, 이 지수와 연계 된 구조화 상품의 손실이 막대할 수 있음. 이 구조화 상품들은 소위 '낙인(Knock-in)' 이하로 지수가 하락할 경우 손실을 입게 되기 때문임. CSI 중소형 500 지수와 연계 된 이 상품들의 낙인은 4,865포인트임. 기초지수가 특정한 범위 내에서만 움직인다면 채권과 같은 이자를 지급하는 이 상품들은 2021년부터 중국의 기관 투자자와 거액 자산가들로부터 흥행하여 270억 달러 규모의 크기로 확장했음. 이 같은 구조화 상품에 있어 또 하나의 커다란 시장인 한국 또한 항셍 지수에 수십억 달러가 연계되어 노출되어 있음.

Another 10% decline in a major Chinese equity gauge may trigger a wave of selling in index futures tied to structured products, adding fresh risks to the slumping stock market. Investors face losses in complex “snowball” derivatives at maturity when a benchmark falls below a so-called knock-in level. For those tied to the CSI Smallcap 500 Index, the average threshold is 4,865. A relentless rout in Chinese stocks has turned the spotlight on the risk of those derivatives, which promise bond-like coupons as long as underlying assets trade within a certain range. Snowballs, similar to autocallables in other countries, gained popularity in 2021 among China’s institutional and wealthy investors and have expanded into a market worth $27 billion. Investors in South Korea, another huge market for structured notes, have billions of dollars worth of bets placed on products tied to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index that are also at risk.