거시경제 환경에 의해 다양한 자산군들의 가격 움직임이 결정되는 경우가 더 많아질 경계점에 도달함.

전세계 거시경제 환경(Global Macro)에 관한 블룸버그 내 기사 발행량은 8월 11일을 가장 저점으로 꾸준히 증가함. 본래 기사(News)라 함은 독자들이 가장 많이 볼 법한 주제를 다루므로, 시장 참여자들의 관심을 대변한다 할 수 있음.

때로는 장기 추세를 형성하는 자산에 대해서 간결한 전략이 훌륭할 때가 많다. 가령 예를 들어 20일 이동평균선 위에서는 매수를 유지하고, 그 아래에서는 매도를 한다.

초록색의 매수, 빨간색의 매도 신호가 많이 발생했지만, 아래의 누적 수익금을 보면 꽤나 편안한 삶을 사셨을 것 같다.

“Going from zero to 2% was almost no increase. Going from zero to 5% caught some people off guard, but no one would have taken 5% out of the realm of possibility,” he said. “I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7%.”

- Jamie Dimon

Kevin McCarthy has lost his gavel.

Hardline Republicans engineered his removal as House speaker, the first such ouster in US history.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cx5iA-Xr2ss/

The Federal Reserve is now on Instagram and Threads!

Bottom-line: High Five.

Yields on 30-year Treasuries hit 5% for the first time since 2007 — and some are warning the 10-year is next. Yields on the benchmark reached 4.88% today before the selloff paused.

도이치뱅크가 매 주 집계하는 투자자들의 투자 노출도 보고서 제목,

- At Neutral, Oct 13 2023

- Dipped Further Underweight, Oct 6 2023

- Sharp Cut Back To Underweight, Sep 29 2023

- The Pullback Extends, Sep 22 2023

- Rates Vol At An 18-Month Low, Sep 15 2023

- In Line With A Typical Pullback, Sep 8 2023

- Almost Back At Neutral, Aug 18 2023

- The Pare Back Continues, Aug 11 2023

Bottom-line: TSMC가 실적을 발표하며 투자자들에게 반도체 시장이 바닥을 통과하며, 스마트폰 및 컴퓨터 시장 수요도 안정을 찾고 있다고 함. 또한 모바일 AI 수요는 이미 증가 중이라 밝힘. 유럽 시장이 열린 현재 유일하게 상승 중인 업종은 기술주며, ASML의 경우 부진한 실적에도 불구 2025년이 상당한 실적 성장의 해가 될 것이라 했고, TSMC의 낙관론도 오늘 상승에 도움을 주고 있다고 보여짐. SAP 또한 강한 클라우드 성장에 경기 둔화 우려를 잠식하며 상승 중임.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s outlook shows signs that demand in the semiconductor market is stabilizing heading into 2024. TSMC tightened its capex forecast, showing the struggles it faces amid still-high inventories. But the company, the primary chipmaker to Nvidia and Apple, posted a revenue beat. TSMC CEO C. C. Wei said there’s early signs of demand stabilization in the PC and smartphone markets and the chip market is very close to the bottom. The rise in demand for mobile AI chips - for end-user products - is already underway, he said at a briefing. TSMC’s American Depositary Receipts rose ~2.4% pre-market. Chip-equipment maker ASML’s 3Q orders plunged, sending the stock down Wednesday; TSMC is one of ASML’s biggest customers. But ASML promised that 2025 will be a “significant growth year,” which may help the sector find a bottom, Henry Ren wrote. ASML is rising today, perhaps reflecting some optimism in TSMC. Tech is the only sector rising in early European trading. The sector was also helped by signs of strong cloud revenue growth at SAP offsetting fears of a slowdown.

S&P 500 turned red after Powell noted that rates perhaps haven’t been high enough, long enough to impact the economy. He said there is no precision in policymakers’ understanding of how long lags are.

Ten-year yields retreated sharply after rising above 5% for the first time since 2007 in a swing of almost 20 bps.

Bill Ackman covered his short bet on Treasuries, saying “there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds.” The Pershing Square founder wrote that the US economy “is slowing faster than recent data suggests.”

Microsoft jumped postmarket after first-quarter sales topped estimates. Cloud revenue and profit also beat.

Alphabet sank after Google's quarterly cloud revenue trailed projections.

Snap soared more than 20%, returning to growth in the third quarter on an improved ad business.

Visa rose after its earnings beat. It authorized a new $25 billion share buyback.