US Inflation Cools. 🥶

Bottom-line: 지난 통화정책회의 의사록 공개에 다음과 같은 점을 핵심으로 볼 수 있음. 금리인상을 일시 중지 한 결정 자체는 만장일치였으나 내부적으로 근거에 대한 주장이 달랐음. 대부분의 인사들은 인플레이션을 제한할 수 있는 영역에 기준금리를 위치 시키길 원하며, 이는 추가 금리인상을 뒷받침 함. 중앙은행 내 경제학자들은 제롬 파월 의장이 주장한 다소 느리지만 성장하는 경제와 달리 연말에 약하지만 침체를 겪을 것으로 전망함.

Here are key takeaways from minutes of the Federal Reserve's June 13-14 meeting, released Wednesday. While the decision to pause interest-rate hikes was unanimous among voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the minutes reveal divisions. Fed officials stress the need to maintain a “restrictive stance” of monetary policy; almost all officials flag their projections showing additional rate hikes will likely be warranted. Fed staff economists continued to forecast a “mild recession” starting later this year, at odds with Chair Jerome Powell's expectation for slow growth.

US companies added almost half a million jobs in June, the most in over a year and underscoring the ongoing strength of the labor market.

Bottom-line: 예상보다 적은 고용을 창출했지만 실업률 하락은 여전함. 시간당 임금이 예상보다 증가한 것은 중앙은행이 원치 않았던 그림임. 평균 근로시간 또한 소폭 증가했는데, 일반적으로 해고가 늘어나기 시작할 때 징조로 근로시간이 줄어든다는 점을 감안하면, 대량의 해고와 같은 우려는 아직 불필요하다 할 수 있음. 전기차 및 배터리 공장에 대한 활황을 보여줄 수 있는 제조업 부문의 고용 증가도 흥미로운 지점임.

Fewer jobs added than projected but unemployment falls. Bigger than expected bump in hourly earnings, not what the Fed wanted to see. The average workweek lengthened just a bit, to 34.4 hours. That’s reduces concern that there’s a major inflection point there — with employers slashing hours as a prelude to layoffs. That scenario is a little less likely now, based on this report. Interestingly, there was a pickup in manufacturing employment, maybe reflecting all the spending on EVs and battery plants.

Bottom-line: 25세에서 54세 사이의 연령대에서 경제활동 참가율이 증가했는데, 2000년 초 이후 가장 높은 수준인 동시에 근로자를 구하기 어려운 노동시장을 보여주는 지표라 할 수 있음. 반면, 흑인이나 히스패닉의 실업률은 다시 증가했음. 흑인의 실업률은 6%로 백인의 실업률 3.1% 대비 다시 두 배에 달하게 됐음.

The prime-age participation rate, that’s for workers aged 25 to 54, nudged up a bit again. It’s at the highest level since the early 2000s as this tight labor market continues to bring people into jobs. Looks like we got a pretty sharp increase in unemployment for minority workers: the Black unemployment rate jumped to 6% and the Hispanic rate to 4.3%. Black unemployment is again about double that of White workers, which fell to 3.1%.

Market Reaction: 작금의 거시경제 환경에서 가장 중요한 지표 발표라는 점을 감안할 때, 지금과 같이 놀라울 정도의 무반응(너무나 조용한 선물시장 호가)은 전례가 없었다고 할 수 있음.

Stock futures remarkably calm, with contracts on the S&P 500 Index barely changed on the day. This might be the most non-reaction we’ve seen in quite some time. After all, this is effectively the most important single economic indicator on the planet.

Bottom-line: 올해 아시아 주식시장에서 탁월한 성과를 기록한 코스피 지수에 대한 내년 성장률 전망이 순풍으로 작용할 것으로 보임. 블룸버그가 증권사들 추정치를 평균한 결과 코스피 상장기업들의 순이익 총합이 올해 대비 36% 증가하며, 어려운 시기를 보낸 반도체 업종을 중심으로 자동차 제조, 엔터테인먼트 업종이 이익 성장을 견인할 것으로 전망 됨. 투자자들은 이미 올해를 뒤로하고 내년 성장으로 관심을 옮겼기 때문에 추가적인 지수 상승을 기대해 볼 수 있어보임.

South Korea’s equity benchmark, among the best-performing gauges in Asia this year, may see more gains, driven by a strong corporate earnings outlook. Some brokerages estimate Kospi Index members will post record-high net income in 2024. Bloomberg forecasts the gauge’s 12-month forward earnings-per-share to jump 36% next year, off the back of less than 1% growth. Chip stocks are expected to be the biggest drivers after a lackluster 2023, while carmakers, entertainment firms and banks will also likely see earnings growth. That optimism will be a tailwind for the Kospi, which has advanced about 14% so far this year. While there are calls for caution in some sectors, investors are already looking past 2023 and focusing on the 2024 financial outlooks.

Good news! A softer gain than expected, on both headline and core, coming in each at 0.2% on the month.

Whoa! Look at those two-year yields, down more than 9 basis points, from being down just about 3 before the release.

Here’s the graph. The S&P is now soaring even higher roughly two minutes after the CPI release.

In general, there’s no reason to think this changes the outlook for a July rate hike, which has been well signaled. It does have influence in how the Fed will think about September.

The Fed will take some comfort in the fact that core service CPI ex-housing housing has slowed below 4%.

Bottom-line: 5% 미만에 머무르게 된 핵심 물가지표를 활용해 중앙은행의 정책금리를 실질금리로 환산 할 경우, 바이러스 대확산 이후 처음으로 양의 영역에 들어섬.

Using core CPI, which dropped below 5%, the real fed fund rate has now turned positive for the first time in this cycle.

Bottom-line: Welcome Relief.

US inflation slid to the lowest in more than two years in June, signaling a potential turning point for the Fed. Headline CPI eased to 3% year on year — one-third of where it was a year ago — from 4%, while core prices decelerated to 4.8% from 5.3%. Both measures climbed 0.2% from May, below forecasts.