Oh??! 🤔

A combination of consumers who are still able and willing to spend, plus cooling prices for gasoline and some goods, can help support the economy as the Fed aims for a soft landing.

Bottom-line: 리커창 총리는 공식석상에서 바이러스 억제정책 변화가 중국의 성장률을 지속 상승 구도로 이끌게 될 것이라 발언함. 제이피모건 또한 경제봉쇄 해제에 따라 내년 중국 경제성장률이 5%에 도달할 것으로 전망함.

China's economic growth will "keep picking up" as officials implement changes to Covid controls, Premier Li Keqiang said at a meeting with the heads of six major global bodies. Beijing will keep the yuan basically stable, and will work with the G-20 to formulate debt restructuring plans for developing nations. China can still achieve GDP growth of up to 5% in 2023 depending its reopening progress, JPMorgan economists wrote.

Bottom-line: 미국 투자등급 회사채 펀드에서 15주간 연속으로 480억 달러의 대규모 자금이탈 이후 지난 주 처음으로 12억 달러의 자금이 유입 됨. 11월 2020년 4월 이후 가장 높은 수익 조건에 있었단 것을 감안하면 이런 자금 유입은 합리적이며, 중앙은행이 인플레이션 통제에 성공적 모습을 보일 경우 추가로 유입 될 것임. 다만, 금리 압박이 줄어들더라도 회사채 입장에서는 경기둔화라는 장애물을 여전히 마주하고 있음.

After 15 weeks of heavy outflows, US investment-grade corporate bond funds have finally drawn in some cash. That’s good news for a market facing significant macro tests and should continue -- as long as returns stay positive. Investors added $1.2 billion to high-grade funds in the week ended Dec. 7, according to Refinitiv Lipper, following a near-$48 billion exodus in the preceding 15-week period. That makes sense given the best returns since April 2020 last month. Money chases success and the outlook for flows will depend on continued gains for an asset class boosted by hopes that the Fed’s winning its war on inflation. But even if rates pressure eases, the asset class still faces significant challenges from a slowdown in the US economy.

Bottom-line: 블랙락, 골드만삭스, 아문디를 포함한 자산운용사 펀드매니저 134명을 대상으로 한 블룸버그의 설문에 따르면, 전쟁과 인플레이션, 중앙은행의 금리인상으로 금융위기 이후 최악의 손실을 기록 한 올해와 달리 내년 주식시장은 10%대 상승을 보일 것으로 응답자의 71%가 답함. 다만, 응답자의 48%와 45%가 각각 높은 인플레이션이나 심각한 경기침체를 우려 요소로 꼽았으며, 대부분 내년 초 새로운 저점을 갱신하고 하반기에 집중적으로 상승하여 10% 초반의 수익률을 기록할 것으로 보았음.

Some of the world's biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, which would bring relief after global equities suffered their worst loss since 2008. Amid recent optimism that inflation has peaked — and that the Federal Reserve could soon start to change its tone— 71% of respondents in a Bloomberg News survey expect equities to rise, versus 19% forecasting declines. For those seeing gains, the average response was a 10% return. The informal survey of 134 fund managers incorporates the views of major investors including BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Amundi SA. It provides an insight into the big themes and hurdles they expect to be grappling with in 2023 after inflation, the war in Ukraine and hawkish central banks battered equity returns this year. The stock market could be derailed again by stubbornly high inflation or a deep recession, however. Those are the top worries for the upcoming year, cited by 48% and 45% of participants, respectively. Stocks could also reach new lows early in 2023, with many seeing gains skewed to the second half.

S&P 500 futures sank while yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed after November PPI measures topped estimates across the board, adding to inflation jitters.

Bottom-line: Bonds as Recession-Proof 2023 Trade.

For a long time, one acronym reigned supreme on Wall Street — TINA, or “there is no alternative,” which was used to talk about the allure of stocks in a low interest-rate environment. But now, BARB — or “bonds are back” — is the new queen.

Implication: 중국이 바이러스 억제정책을 완화하기 시작하면서 COVID-19 바이러스의 위험성이 높지 않다는 공식 의견을 지속 강조하고 있음. 일반 독감과 동일한 0.1%의 사망률에 폐에 이르는 손상이 거의 없다는 발언이 이번에 추가되었음. 확진자 수가 줄어드는데 대해서는 그만큼 검사를 받는 사람이 적어 의심을 받지만, 정책의 변화 이후 계속적으로 위험이 높지 않음을 강조하면서 경제재개를 위한 발걸음을 이어가고 있음.

Chinese officials continued to downplay the risks of Covid-19 as restrictions are eased, with a top medical adviser saying the fatality rate from the omicron variant of the virus is in line with influenza. The death rate from omicron is around 0.1%, similar to the common flu, and the infection rarely reaches the lungs, Zhong Nanshan was quoted in an interview with state news agency Xinhua. Most people recover from the variant within seven to 10 days, he said. Zhong’s comments follow the government’s latest line on the coronavirus, which talks down the disease’s dangers as China moves toward exiting its Covid Zero policy. The nation reported 10,514 local infections for Saturday, more than 20% lower than Friday. Doubts have been raised about the accuracy of case numbers because fewer people are being tested.

Bottom-line: HK Re-open

Hong Kong is scrapping some of its remaining Covid restrictions following China’s rapid shift away from the zero-tolerance approach. The government will remove a ban on international arrivals going to bars or eating at restaurants, and stop requiring people to use a health app to enter venues, Chief Executive John Lee said at a press conference Tuesday. He didn’t mention whether the government will retain the mask mandate.

Wowsers! Look at those stock futures, up 3%. We’re seeing a similar pattern to last month.

Treasury yields fall sharply on the CPI report, with the 2-year down 20bps. Yields were falling heading into CPI, and the data affirm inflation is now in retreat.

Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 내년 금리인상 폭을 25bp로 하는데 자신감을 줄 수 있는 발표가 되었음.

This should give Powell some confidence tomorrow if he had planned on signaling a further step down in the magnitude of rate hikes to 25 basis points in February, after the 50 basis points that’s expected on Wednesday.

Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 통화정책이 인플레이션을 통제하고 있다는 의미있는 첫 신호로 해석함.

Lindsay Rosner, multisector portfolio manager at PGIM Fixed Income, says this was an “important piece of the story of rate hikes working.” She calls it the “first really meaningful beat.”