Meta Miss. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Bottom-line: 금리에 대한 베팅이 하락으로 뒤집히며 그간 쌓여있던 매도 포지션이 각각의 만기에 걸쳐 청산되는 움직임이 보임. 이는 향후 추가적인 금리 하락으로 인한 매도 포지션 청산 증가 가능성을 높이고 있으며, 10년물 국채의 경우 90억 달러 규모의 신규 매수 계약이 유입 됨. 제이피모건에서 채권 거래 고객을 대상으로 한 설문에서는 채권 매수 응답이 2년래 최고치를 기록함. 옵션 시장에서도 한달 내 10년물 금리가 3.8%에 도달할 것에 행사가가 걸친 계약이 쇄도했음.

A short squeeze is underway in front-end rates as pricing for Federal Reserve policy hikes starts to erode. Tuesday’s rally in December 2022 eurodollar futures was met with a drop of contracts in the tenor, equivalent to around $8 billion’s worth of the current two-year Treasury cash note. That suggests a heavy amount of short positions were being liquidated into the advance. Open interest also dropped across the December 2022, March 2023 and June 2023 contracts tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, according to CME Group data. Into Tuesday’s richening, “the shorts side is clearly being squeezed with more than 30% of recent shorts offside in EGBs and 15% of shorts underwater in USTs,” Citigroup Inc. strategists Ed Acton and Bill O’Donnell wrote of the US and European bond markets. “There is clearly fuel for a further squeeze.”. Further out the curve, evidence of new long positions are emerging. Almost 95,000 contracts of new risk were added in 10-year note futures on Tuesday, equivalent to approximately $9 billion worth of the current cash 10-year Treasury. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s latest Treasury client survey shows the biggest net long position in two years. The bullish sentiment for lower yields is also being matched in the options market, where Wednesday’s session saw a flood of plays targeting a 10-year yield drop to 3.80% within a month. 

Bottom-line: 2년이 넘는 기간 동안 50일 이동평균선은 리트머스 시험지와 같은 역할을 함. 지수가 이 이동평균선 위에 있을 땐 저가 매수가 유효한 전략이었고, 반대의 경우 고가 매도가 유효한 전략이었음.

Price action in the S&P 500 Index is likely to be choppy until a decisive direction is made around the 50-day moving average. For more than two years, moves in the S&P 500 above or below that key moving mean have tended to be a guidepost. In 2020 and and 2021, prices above it were bullish and declines toward the rolling average drew dip buying. This year’s slip below brought the opposite, resulting in selling as the benchmark rose toward the average.

Samsung 3Q Oper Profit 10.85T Won, Est. 12.05T Won. 3Q Sales 76.78T Won, Est. 78.04T Won. 3Q Cons. Net 9.14T Won, Est. 9.43T Won.

Wow, Consumer electronics operating profit was 250 billion won, estimates had it at 444.5 billion won.

3Q chip sales of 23 trillion won are far below 35.2 trillion won estimates. Not good.

A strong dollar helped Samsung’s operating profit by a measure of 1 trillion won versus 2Q.

Bottom-line: 수요 회복은 내년 하반기로 예상하나 거시적 환경을 지속 살펴야 할 것임.

Samsung expects memory demand to improve only from the second half of 2023, propped up by servers and mobile phones but also the migration to more advanced DDR5 for newer PCs. But one caveat: “Impacts of the macro economy on demand require monitoring.”

Inventories at Samsung have been growing.

Bottom-line: 하이닉스처럼 과격한 표현을 사용하지 않아 덜 우울한 이야기로 들림.

Samsung’s comments about the chip downturn aren’t quite as bleak as Hynix’s (which said it was “unprecedented”). Samsung described it this way:

“Earnings in the Memory Business declined as inventory adjustments of customers exceeded market expectations and demand for consumer products remained weak.”

Bottom-line: 거시 환경이 불확실하고 반도체 수요 회복이 가시적이지 않음은 동종 업체와 유사함.

So far, Samsung’s outlook seems in line with peers including Hynix from this week: the prognosis for the global macroeconomic environment is none-too-rosy, and uncertainty clouds any imminent recovery in semiconductor demand.

Bottom-line: 파운드리 사업부는 매우 훌륭한 수익 기여를 했고, 향후에도 견조한 수요로 성장할 것임.

Samsung is trumpeting its progress in the foundry business, which is the division that makes chips for other customers and competes with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). In its release, Samsung said that foundry delivered record earnings.

“In the Foundry Business, earnings momentum is expected to continue on solid demand from global customers and additional yield improvements.”

Bottom-line: 스마트폰 사업에서 신규 제품의 견조한 판매로 매출이 호조를 보임.

On the mobile front, Samsung’s touting better revenue and operating profit from the previous quarter, crediting its Galaxy Z Fold4 and Z Flip4 foldables, which “showed strong growth” despite challenging market conditions.

Bottom-line: 메모리 사업부 조정에 대한 언급은 아직 없음. 정부의 눈치를 볼 수 밖에 없는 입장이 아닌가.

No word yet of any output cuts on the memory business front. Samsung is particularly sensitive to being seen as a price setter in the market, so it’ll hold off cuts as long as it can, lest regulators come knocking on its door.

Bottom-line: 종합적으로 보면, 이미 성숙해버린 시장보다 고성장이 가능하며 이익률이 높은 곳에 더 집중하는 전략을 취하겠다는 것임.

Pulling together a summary of Samsung’s outlook for various divisions, the standout thing is focus on the high end. The company already said it’s not expanding production capacity for mature chips, it’s now restating that by saying it’s looking to grow provision of advanced chipmaking for foundry customers and sales of high-density memory. With phones, likewise, it aims to boost revenue by focusing on higher-margin foldables.

Bottom-line: 아래 삼성의 스마트폰 차트가 성숙해버린 시장의 정의를 보여줌.

Sam’s chart of smartphone growth is the very definition of a plateaued, mature industry.