Payrolls Dash Pivot Hopes as Investors Throw In Towel.

White House Adds New Restrictions on Chip Exports to China.

Did you know that some whales create bubble nets to catch their food? 🐋

Bottom-line: 투기등급 채권 내에서 등급 간 수익률 차이가 확대되고 있음. 이는 CCC 등급의 회사채가 지불불능의 사태에 빠질 수 있다는 우려를 나타냄. 상황은 투자등급 채권도 다르지 않은데, 마찬가지 등급 간 수익률 차이가 확대되며 투자등급 채권이 투기등급으로 떨어지는 '추락한 천사'가 될 염려가 녹아있음.

Credit markets faded the week’s rally after payrolls data left bonds increasingly exposed to downgrades and defaults as the Fed stays hawkish. The gap between higher and lower rated bonds is widening as funding costs surge and earnings weaken. The rising tide from last week’s highly stressed credit market levels didn’t lift all boats. A stubborn gulf between CCC spreads and the next rating tier up highlights investor fears that those bonds won’t pay back. In investment grade, the gap between AA and A rated debt remains stretched on fears that lower-rated bonds will slip to BBB, where funding costs -- and the risk of falling to junk -- are elevated. High-grade downgrades are seen accelerating as the economy slows, leaving investors taking cover in better quality bonds.

Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig were awarded the 2022 Nobel Prize in economic sciences “for research on banks and financial crises.”. The three will share the 10 million-kronor ($900,000) award, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said in Stockholm on Monday.

Bottom-line: 역사를 돌아보면, 통화정책의 갑작스러운 선회(1998년 LTCM, 2008년 금융위기, 2020년 바이러스 대확산)는 거시경제 지표의 악화가 아니라 극단의 사건에 따라 발생했음. 악명으로 남은 2018년 파월의 잘못 된 정책 선회는 중앙은행이 시장에 정책을 전달하는데 어려움을 가중시키고, 자신들의 정책을 증명하는데 더 높은 금리인상을 해야 하는 상황을 만들었음. 시장 참여자들이 정책 선회에 베팅할 때 가장 큰 문제는, 중앙은행이 원하는 수준까지 자산가치가 하락하지 못한다는 점이며, 그 경우 금융환경 자체가 완화적인 상태에 머무른다는 것임.

History’s clear pivots (after the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998; in 2008 as the credit crisis grew extreme; and in the desperate hours of the Covid shutdown in March 2020) have been driven by extreme events, and not by deteriorating macro numbers. And in general, a pivot is not exactly a consummation devoutly to be wished. Changes in the macro lead to changes in policy, but both tend to be gradual. The infamous “Powell Pivot” of late 2018, when the Fed was bullied into changing course by a savage December stock selloff, may be most to blame. It fostered the impression that this Fed would turn on a dime. That earlier pivot has made it harder for the Fed to convince markets of its intentions, and may well mean that it has to hike more than it wishes just to prove itself. There is a final problem with betting on a pivot, which is that it makes one less likely. Higher equity valuations contribute to an easing in financial conditions. The Fed is hoping that it can rein in inflation via the means of tighter financial conditions. So each little burst of optimism makes it harder for the central bank to move. Bloomberg’s own measure shows that US financial conditions are now more than one standard deviation tighter than the mean for the last decade, and their tightest in that time — with the very significant exception of March 2020.

Romance With Fed Pivot Breaks Investor Hearts.

Bottom-line: 옵션 거래 속에 그 의도를 분명히 파악하기란 불가능에 가까움. 다만, 소수의 거래자들이 유동성이 적은 일부 주식에 대한 거래가 아니라 거래대금으로 구분했을 때 가장 규모있는 거래자들의 집단적 움직임은 주시의 대상임. 이들은 최근 개별주식의 풋 옵션을 100억 달러 이상 매수하면서 최대 거래 기록을 세움. 이 거래량만 놓고 보자면 심각하고 급격한 하락을 보였던 역사적 최악의 시기를 대비하는 그것과 다름이 없어보임.

With a lumbering bear market whipping up volatility, the biggest traders are wringing stock options for all they’re worth. The largest players on the options market bought more than $10 billion in puts on individual stocks last week, a record for that group and close to the most ever by any cohort of traders, according to Sundial Capital Research. The rush for protection came as the S&P 500 slumped into the weekend and the Cboe Volatility Index spiked above 32 to the highest level since June. Discerning a clear signal from any such action in the options market is nearly impossible. The flurry of buying could have been a straight grab for protection against further equity losses or an attempt to exploit anomalies opening up as markets lurch from one massive move to the next. But the sheer volume is another indication that markets in 2022 have started trading in ways comparable to some of the worst periods in recent history. “If the trades are due to relatively few trades on a few stocks, e.g. a part of some huge complicated arbitrage or other strategy,” then there might be no takeaway from the data, Jason Goepfert, chief research officer at Sundial, said. “It doesn’t seem to be the case, though, so the suggestion is that they are betting very heavily on a severe, sudden decline.”

백억 달러를 백만으로 적었는데... 백만달러도 큰 규모로 생각해서 아무도 오타를 알려주지 않은 것일까.

$10bil = 14조원 규모의 풋 옵션 매수임.

Bottom-line: 한국 10일 수출 데이터가 전년 대비 -20.2%로 큰 폭 부진했음. 적자폭 또한 38억 달러로 확대됐음. 이 뉴스에 원화에 대한 매도가 이어졌지만, 계절조정을 거칠 경우 전월 대비로는 -1.6% 감소임.

South Korea’s 10-day exports experienced a large y/y slump on a headline basis, and the trade deficit widened to $3.8b from $2.4b from the corresponding period. Korean won NDFs sold off on the news. The read across to global activity is also negative, with these numbers 36% correlated with US ISM in changes terms. That said, the underlying export numbers are not quite as bad as the headline suggests. The day-count and seasonally adjusted series fell only -1.6% m/m, according to my calculation, a mere 0.2 standard deviation decline for this extremely volatile series.

Bottom-line: 24조원에 달하는 미국 국채시장의 거대한 매수자들이 모두 등을 돌리고 있음. 일본 연금펀드에서부터 생명보험사, 외국 정부에 이르기까지 미국 국채에 의존하던 그들이 물러서기 시작하는 와중에 중앙은행 또한 매도자로 바뀐 상태임. 이들 중 한 두곳만 확실한 수요자가 되어준다면 모르겠으나, 높은 변동성과 악화 된 유동성, 낮은 입찰률이 모두가 후퇴하는 상황에 우려를 키우고 있음. 1970년대 이후 가장 큰 폭 하락한 국채 가격에도 불구 새로운 구매자가 나타나고 있지 않기에 더 많은 고통이 있을 것이란 뜻임. 새로운 구매자가 누가 어느 순간 진입할지 알 수 없지만, 그들은 분명 가격에 더욱 민감한 상태일 것임.

Everywhere you turn, the biggest players in the $23.7 trillion US Treasuries market are in retreat. From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $60 billion a month. If one or two of these usually steadfast sources of demand were bailing, the impact, while noticeable, would likely be little cause for alarm. But for every one of them to pull back is an undeniable source of concern, especially coming on the heels of the unprecedented volatility, deteriorating liquidity and weak auctions of recent months. The upshot, according to market watchers, is that even with Treasuries tumbling the most since at least the early 1970s this year, more pain may be in store until new, consistent sources of demand emerge. It’s also bad news for US taxpayers, who will ultimately have to foot the bill for higher borrowing costs. “We need to find a new marginal buyer of Treasuries as central banks and banks overall are exiting stage left,” said Glen Capelo, who spent more than three decades on Wall Street bond-trading desks and is now a managing director at Mischler Financial. “It’s still not clear yet who that will be, but we know they’re going to be a lot more price sensitive.”

US stocks erased gains and bonds fell as Bailey's warning rattled investors. The S&P 500 slid for a fifth day amid renewed selling in tech shares. Treasury yields rose, with 10-year notes jumping 5 bps to almost 3.94%.

Bottom-line: 인텔은 수천명에 달하는 인원 감축을 발표할 것으로 알려짐. 개인용 컴퓨터의 수요 둔화와 경쟁 회사로부터 시장 점유율을 잠식 당함에 따라 이미 실적 전망을 낮춘 바 있는 이 회사는 비용을 감축하고 줄어드는 수요에 대응하기 위해 인원을 감축할 것으로 보임. 마케팅이나 판매 부서의 경우 해당 인원 감축으로 인해 부서의 20% 이상이 영향을 받을 것으로 예상됨.

Intel Corp. is planning a major reduction in headcount, likely numbering in the thousands, to cut costs and cope with a sputtering personal-computer market, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The layoffs will be announced as early as this month, with the company planning to make the move around the same time as its third-quarter earnings report on Oct. 27, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The chipmaker had 113,700 employees as of July. Some divisions, including Intel’s sales and marketing group, could see cuts affecting about 20% of staff, according to the people. Intel is facing a steep decline in demand for PC processors, its main business, and has struggled to win back market share lost to rivals like Advanced Micro Devices Inc. In July, the company warned that 2022 sales would be about $11 billion lower than it previously expected. Analysts are predicting a third-quarter revenue drop of roughly 15%. And Intel’s once-enviable margins have shriveled: They’re about 15 percentage points narrower than historical numbers of around 60%.

Docent: 투자회사가 위탁 받은 자금을 투자하지 못하고 남아돌 때 이를 '드라이 파우더(Dry Powder: 드라이파우더는 건조된 화약이라는 뜻으로 전투에서 바로 사용할 수 있도록 확보해 놓는 실탄을 의미하는 데에서 유래)'라 칭함. 이런 드라이 파우더가 점점 늘어난다는 보도가 나온지 얼마 되지 않은 시점에서 이 기사를 보면 시사점이 있을 것임. 지난 몇년 간 스타트업 세계에서는 언제 유니콘이 될지가 화두였지만, 이제는 상황이 완전히 바뀐 상태라 할 수 있음. 신규 투자가 사라지기 시작하면서 생존 가능 자체가 의문스러운 상태, 때문에 유니콘이 아닌 '바퀴벌레'가 새로운 화두가 되고 있음. 컨퍼런스에 모인 스타트업 관계자들은 이제 현금흐름을 어떻게 관리하고 불투명한 미래를 어떻게 준비할지에 대한 이야기를 주로 함. 이제부터 바퀴벌레의 시간이라 표현하는데, 향후 2~3년간 어떻게든 살아남아 버티면 번창할 수 있을 것이라 희망하기 때문임. 지난 3분기 스타트업 투자 금액은 745억 달러로 9개 분기 중 가장 적을 뿐 아니라 분기 간 -34% 감소로 가장 큰 감소폭을 보였음.

For years, becoming a unicorn was the main goal of startups. Now, with venture funding drying up and many young firms’ survival in doubt, another creature is the talk of the town: the cockroach. Venture capitalists and technology chieftains converged in Singapore in recent weeks to hobnob over a number of high-profile annual conferences, marking the city-state’s grand coming-out-of-Covid party. Yet gone was glamor and talk of blitzscaling, and participants instead focused on the drastic need for conserving cash and a dimming future. “It’s cockroach time -- do whatever it takes to survive,” Tessa Wijaya, co-founder of Xendit, a digital payments firm valued at $1 billion, said during a panel discussion moderated by Square Peg Capital partner Piruze Sabuncu. “It’s a little bit gross but it kind of works. If you can survive the next two, three years, you’re probably going to thrive.”. In the past several years, Southeast Asia attracted abundant capital from investors eager to bet on one of the fastest-growing internet economies. Perpetually growing teams was the norm at richly funded companies and for many young leaders and staff, this was the only environment they’ve ever known. Now the startup ecosystem is facing headwinds. Global venture funding slumped to $74.5 billion in the past three months, its lowest level in nine quarters, according to CB Insights. That represents a 34% quarterly drop, the biggest in a decade.

Bottom-line: 7월 50bp 금리인상 후 높은 금리가 경제에 미칠 영향을 우려하며 8월에는 25bp 금리인상을 했던 한국 중앙은행이 경제위기에나 있던 환율 수준을 방어하기 위해 다시 한 번 큰 폭 금리인상을 단행함. 19명의 경제 예측가 중 16명이 50bp 금리인상을, 나머지 3명은 25bp 금리인상을 예측했었음.

The Bank of Korea returned to outsized interest-rate increases as it sought to shore up a currency that has been driven to crisis-era lows by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy tightening. The South Korean central bank raised its seven-day repurchase rate by a half-percentage point to a 10-year high of 3% on Wednesday, as expected by 16 of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The remaining three had forecast a quarter-point move. The BOK is the latest central bank to respond to the Fed’s doubling down on large rate hikes to try to crush inflation. The BOK had already increased its rate by a half-point in July, before downshifting to a quarter-point move in August amid concerns over the impact of larger rate hikes on the wider economy.