Analyst Suggests Bitcoin Yet to Reach Bear-Market Bottom
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. has indicated that Bitcoin has not yet experienced the significant decline typically seen at the bottom of previous bear markets. According to NS3.AI, Adler's model, which is based on four past market cycles, suggests that the current market has not yet entered its final phase.
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. has indicated that Bitcoin has not yet experienced the significant decline typically seen at the bottom of previous bear markets. According to NS3.AI, Adler's model, which is based on four past market cycles, suggests that the current market has not yet entered its final phase.
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Fed Shifts From Rate Cut Signals to Neutral as Rate Hike Debate Emerges; Warsh to Inherit Divided Institution
Key Takeaways
Nick Timiraos reports the Fed's internal debate has shifted from "when to cut" to "what conditions would require rate hikes" -- a fundamental pivot in policy direction
Three regional Fed presidents -- Logan, Hamack, and Kashkari -- formally objected to language suggesting the next move is a rate cut, the first such dissent on policy wording since September 2020
Powell acknowledged "intense discussions" and admitted dissenters' arguments were "fully valid," signaling the dovish bias is effectively dead even if the language was retained procedurally
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari outlined a rate hike scenario if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen quickly, warning hikes may be necessary even at the cost of labor market weakness
Former senior Fed economist William English warned that holding rates steady while inflation rises is "passive easing" that becomes increasingly unsustainable over time
Kevin Warsh will inherit this divided institution when he assumes the chairmanship in mid-May, with the next policy meeting approximately one month after Powell's departure
The Federal Reserve has crossed a significant threshold in its internal policy debate, shifting from a discussion about when to resume rate cuts to an active consideration of conditions that might necessitate rate hikes -- a pivot that Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal reporter closely followed as a conduit for Fed thinking, characterized on May 2 as a crucial turning point in the interest rate path.
The shift was made visible in the voting record from Wednesday's policy meeting, where three regional Fed presidents -- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hamack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari -- formally objected to retaining language in the policy statement suggesting the next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut. The dissent targeted wording rather than the rate decision itself, a rare occurrence that has not been seen since September 2020.
Powell Validates the Dissenters
Outgoing Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the depth of the internal disagreement at his final press conference, describing the committee's discussions as "intense" and stating that the arguments of the dissenters were "fully valid." While Powell stopped short of removing the dovish guidance -- citing procedural reasons given that this was his final meeting -- his explicit validation of the hawkish dissent effectively signals that the language will not survive into the next meeting under new leadership.
The net result, as Timiraos frames it, is that the Fed has partially moved from signaling rate cuts to a neutral wait-and-see posture -- a shift with direct implications for asset prices that had been partly supported by expectations of eventual easing.
The Hormuz Shock Is the Core Driver
The energy shock from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is identified as the primary force driving the policy recalibration. Unlike transitory price shocks that dissipate over weeks, the Hormuz disruption is structural -- a supply chain constraint that could keep energy costs elevated for months and permeate broader price levels, pushing inflation expectations higher at precisely the moment the Fed had hoped to pivot toward easing.
Kashkari outlined the rate hike scenario explicitly in a Friday speech, warning that if the strait does not reopen quickly, a series of rate increases may be necessary -- even at the cost of further weakening the labor market. The willingness of a Fed official to explicitly invoke the possibility of hikes despite deteriorating growth conditions underscores the severity of the inflation concern at the institution.
Former senior Fed economist William English added a structural dimension to the warning, arguing that holding rates steady while inflation rises constitutes "passive easing" -- a policy stance that becomes increasingly difficult to justify the longer elevated energy prices.
Key Takeaways
Nick Timiraos reports the Fed's internal debate has shifted from "when to cut" to "what conditions would require rate hikes" -- a fundamental pivot in policy direction
Three regional Fed presidents -- Logan, Hamack, and Kashkari -- formally objected to language suggesting the next move is a rate cut, the first such dissent on policy wording since September 2020
Powell acknowledged "intense discussions" and admitted dissenters' arguments were "fully valid," signaling the dovish bias is effectively dead even if the language was retained procedurally
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari outlined a rate hike scenario if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen quickly, warning hikes may be necessary even at the cost of labor market weakness
Former senior Fed economist William English warned that holding rates steady while inflation rises is "passive easing" that becomes increasingly unsustainable over time
Kevin Warsh will inherit this divided institution when he assumes the chairmanship in mid-May, with the next policy meeting approximately one month after Powell's departure
The Federal Reserve has crossed a significant threshold in its internal policy debate, shifting from a discussion about when to resume rate cuts to an active consideration of conditions that might necessitate rate hikes -- a pivot that Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal reporter closely followed as a conduit for Fed thinking, characterized on May 2 as a crucial turning point in the interest rate path.
The shift was made visible in the voting record from Wednesday's policy meeting, where three regional Fed presidents -- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hamack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari -- formally objected to retaining language in the policy statement suggesting the next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut. The dissent targeted wording rather than the rate decision itself, a rare occurrence that has not been seen since September 2020.
Powell Validates the Dissenters
Outgoing Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the depth of the internal disagreement at his final press conference, describing the committee's discussions as "intense" and stating that the arguments of the dissenters were "fully valid." While Powell stopped short of removing the dovish guidance -- citing procedural reasons given that this was his final meeting -- his explicit validation of the hawkish dissent effectively signals that the language will not survive into the next meeting under new leadership.
The net result, as Timiraos frames it, is that the Fed has partially moved from signaling rate cuts to a neutral wait-and-see posture -- a shift with direct implications for asset prices that had been partly supported by expectations of eventual easing.
The Hormuz Shock Is the Core Driver
The energy shock from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is identified as the primary force driving the policy recalibration. Unlike transitory price shocks that dissipate over weeks, the Hormuz disruption is structural -- a supply chain constraint that could keep energy costs elevated for months and permeate broader price levels, pushing inflation expectations higher at precisely the moment the Fed had hoped to pivot toward easing.
Kashkari outlined the rate hike scenario explicitly in a Friday speech, warning that if the strait does not reopen quickly, a series of rate increases may be necessary -- even at the cost of further weakening the labor market. The willingness of a Fed official to explicitly invoke the possibility of hikes despite deteriorating growth conditions underscores the severity of the inflation concern at the institution.
Former senior Fed economist William English added a structural dimension to the warning, arguing that holding rates steady while inflation rises constitutes "passive easing" -- a policy stance that becomes increasingly difficult to justify the longer elevated energy prices.
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a16z Warns CFTC About State-Level Prediction Market Rules Impact
a16z has submitted an 18-page comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on May 1, expressing concerns over state-level prediction market regulations. According to NS3.AI, the firm warned that these rules could potentially drain liquidity and restrict user access. a16z highlighted that cease-and-desist orders and proposed state bans create obstacles that conflict with the CFTC's rules on fair market access. Additionally, a16z emphasized that blockchain-based prediction markets offer greater transparency due to the auditability of on-chain transactions.
a16z has submitted an 18-page comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on May 1, expressing concerns over state-level prediction market regulations. According to NS3.AI, the firm warned that these rules could potentially drain liquidity and restrict user access. a16z highlighted that cease-and-desist orders and proposed state bans create obstacles that conflict with the CFTC's rules on fair market access. Additionally, a16z emphasized that blockchain-based prediction markets offer greater transparency due to the auditability of on-chain transactions.
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Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin at Crossroads: Break Above $80,000 Could Trigger Short Squeeze to $84,000, Analyst Says
Key Takeaways
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies $80,000 as the key psychological and technical resistance level for Bitcoin in May, with significant short-selling liquidity clustered at that level
A break above $80,000 could trigger a short squeeze pushing prices rapidly toward $84,000
Downside support levels are identified at $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000 if the resistance holds
The $75,000β$80,000 range on the daily chart is described as the battleground that will likely determine Bitcoin's overall trend for May
The market is currently in a "tug-of-war" between bulls and bears with order clusters forming at key liquidation levels
Bitcoin is entering May locked in a narrow range with order clusters building at critical price levels that could trigger large-scale liquidations in either direction, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who identifies $80,000 as the defining level for the month ahead.
Writing on May 2, Martinez outlined a binary setup for Bitcoin's near-term price action. The $80,000 level represents a major psychological and technical resistance zone where significant short-selling liquidity has accumulated -- a concentration of positions that cuts both ways. If Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, the forced covering of those short positions could rapidly accelerate the move toward $84,000 in a classic short squeeze dynamic. If the level holds as resistance for a fourth consecutive time, the market would likely turn its attention to downside support at $75,000, $73,000, and ultimately $70,000.
The analysis frames the $75,000β$80,000 range as the month's central battleground. A decisive daily chart break in either direction -- above $80,000 or below $75,000 -- is likely to set the tone for the entirety of May's price action, Martinez argued, with the current tug-of-war between bulls and bears leaving the market in an unstable equilibrium that cannot persist indefinitely.
The setup aligns with broader market structure observations from multiple analysts. Negative funding rates across major exchanges confirm persistent short bias, while the True Market Mean at approximately $79,000 has twice rejected Bitcoin's advance. At the same time, institutional accumulation between $65,000 and $70,000 and Strategy's $3.9 billion in April purchases provide structural support that limits the depth of any downside move.
The resolution of the $75,000β$80,000 range -- whether by a Fed policy shift, a Hormuz ceasefire, or a re-acceleration of ETF inflows -- remains the central question for Bitcoin heading into the first full trading week of May.
Key Takeaways
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies $80,000 as the key psychological and technical resistance level for Bitcoin in May, with significant short-selling liquidity clustered at that level
A break above $80,000 could trigger a short squeeze pushing prices rapidly toward $84,000
Downside support levels are identified at $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000 if the resistance holds
The $75,000β$80,000 range on the daily chart is described as the battleground that will likely determine Bitcoin's overall trend for May
The market is currently in a "tug-of-war" between bulls and bears with order clusters forming at key liquidation levels
Bitcoin is entering May locked in a narrow range with order clusters building at critical price levels that could trigger large-scale liquidations in either direction, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who identifies $80,000 as the defining level for the month ahead.
Writing on May 2, Martinez outlined a binary setup for Bitcoin's near-term price action. The $80,000 level represents a major psychological and technical resistance zone where significant short-selling liquidity has accumulated -- a concentration of positions that cuts both ways. If Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, the forced covering of those short positions could rapidly accelerate the move toward $84,000 in a classic short squeeze dynamic. If the level holds as resistance for a fourth consecutive time, the market would likely turn its attention to downside support at $75,000, $73,000, and ultimately $70,000.
The analysis frames the $75,000β$80,000 range as the month's central battleground. A decisive daily chart break in either direction -- above $80,000 or below $75,000 -- is likely to set the tone for the entirety of May's price action, Martinez argued, with the current tug-of-war between bulls and bears leaving the market in an unstable equilibrium that cannot persist indefinitely.
The setup aligns with broader market structure observations from multiple analysts. Negative funding rates across major exchanges confirm persistent short bias, while the True Market Mean at approximately $79,000 has twice rejected Bitcoin's advance. At the same time, institutional accumulation between $65,000 and $70,000 and Strategy's $3.9 billion in April purchases provide structural support that limits the depth of any downside move.
The resolution of the $75,000β$80,000 range -- whether by a Fed policy shift, a Hormuz ceasefire, or a re-acceleration of ETF inflows -- remains the central question for Bitcoin heading into the first full trading week of May.
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Crypto Venture Capital Funding Drops 74% in April 2026
Crypto venture capital funding experienced a significant decline in April 2026, reaching $659 million, a 74% decrease from $2.6 billion in March. According to NS3.AI, this marks the lowest monthly total since July 2024. Data from CryptoRank indicates that 63 funding rounds were completed in April, contributing to a total of $5.64 billion in funding for 2026 so far. The monthly financing scale has been on a downward trend since October 2025, coinciding with a roughly 37% decrease in the total crypto market capitalization over the same period.
Crypto venture capital funding experienced a significant decline in April 2026, reaching $659 million, a 74% decrease from $2.6 billion in March. According to NS3.AI, this marks the lowest monthly total since July 2024. Data from CryptoRank indicates that 63 funding rounds were completed in April, contributing to a total of $5.64 billion in funding for 2026 so far. The monthly financing scale has been on a downward trend since October 2025, coinciding with a roughly 37% decrease in the total crypto market capitalization over the same period.
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OPEC+ Agrees to Raise June Output by 188,000 BPD but Market Sees 75% Chance of WTI Hitting $110 This Month
Key Takeaways
Seven OPEC+ members have agreed in principle to increase June production targets by approximately 188,000 barrels per day, similar to May's 206,000 BPD increase excluding the UAE's share
The production increase is described as largely symbolic given the Strait of Hormuz disruption has caused far greater supply disruption than any OPEC quota adjustment can offset
Polymarket prices a 75% probability of WTI crude hitting $110 in May, a 45% chance of $120, and a 22% chance of $130, per PolyBeats data
The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1 has not derailed the remaining members' decision-making process, which is proceeding on a "business as usual" basis
An online OPEC+ meeting among the seven remaining members is planned for Sunday
Seven OPEC+ members have reached an agreement in principle to raise their collective oil production target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in June, sources told BlockBeats on May 2 -- but the decision is being widely characterized as symbolic given that the real driver of global oil supply disruption lies far beyond OPEC's control.
The planned June increase mirrors May's adjustment of 206,000 BPD when accounting for the UAE's now-departed share, signaling that the remaining OPEC+ core is pressing ahead with its established production roadmap despite the bloc's most significant membership rupture in years. The seven remaining members plan to formalize the decision in an online meeting on Sunday.
A Largely Symbolic Move
The production increase does little to address the dominant force reshaping global oil markets. The ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran has disrupted the majority of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz -- a chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits -- causing supply dislocations far larger in scale than any incremental quota adjustment OPEC+ could realistically implement. In that context, 188,000 additional barrels per day represents a marginal offset to a structural supply shock measured in millions of barrels.
The UAE's exit from OPEC effective May 1 adds further complexity. Abu Dhabi is now free to set its own production levels independently, potentially adding supply outside the cartel's coordination framework -- a dynamic that could accelerate the erosion of OPEC+'s relevance as a price-setting mechanism, as Nordea Bank analyst Jan von Gerich warned following the UAE's withdrawal announcement.
Markets Price Significant Further Oil Upside
Despite the symbolic nature of the production increase, prediction market data suggests traders expect oil prices to move materially higher before the end of May. According to PolyBeats data from Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude hitting $110 on a single day this month stands at 75%, while the probability of reaching $120 is priced at 45% and $130 at 22% -- a distribution that reflects persistent uncertainty around the Hormuz situation and the risk of further military escalation.
With WTI currently trading around $102 per barrel following Friday's ceasefire proposal-driven pullback, a move to $110 would represent an approximately 8% increase from current levels -- a threshold the market views as more likely than not before June.
Crypto and Macro Implications
For Bitcoin and risk assets, the combination of a symbolic OPEC+ increase and elevated Polymarket oil price probabilities reinforces the inflationary headwind that has been capping risk appetite through April and into May. A sustained move toward $110--$120 WTI would keep inflation expectations elevated, reduce the probability of Fed rate cuts further into the distance, and maintain the higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop that has been one of the primary constraints on Bitcoin's ability to break decisively above $79,000--$80,000.
Key Takeaways
Seven OPEC+ members have agreed in principle to increase June production targets by approximately 188,000 barrels per day, similar to May's 206,000 BPD increase excluding the UAE's share
The production increase is described as largely symbolic given the Strait of Hormuz disruption has caused far greater supply disruption than any OPEC quota adjustment can offset
Polymarket prices a 75% probability of WTI crude hitting $110 in May, a 45% chance of $120, and a 22% chance of $130, per PolyBeats data
The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1 has not derailed the remaining members' decision-making process, which is proceeding on a "business as usual" basis
An online OPEC+ meeting among the seven remaining members is planned for Sunday
Seven OPEC+ members have reached an agreement in principle to raise their collective oil production target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in June, sources told BlockBeats on May 2 -- but the decision is being widely characterized as symbolic given that the real driver of global oil supply disruption lies far beyond OPEC's control.
The planned June increase mirrors May's adjustment of 206,000 BPD when accounting for the UAE's now-departed share, signaling that the remaining OPEC+ core is pressing ahead with its established production roadmap despite the bloc's most significant membership rupture in years. The seven remaining members plan to formalize the decision in an online meeting on Sunday.
A Largely Symbolic Move
The production increase does little to address the dominant force reshaping global oil markets. The ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran has disrupted the majority of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz -- a chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits -- causing supply dislocations far larger in scale than any incremental quota adjustment OPEC+ could realistically implement. In that context, 188,000 additional barrels per day represents a marginal offset to a structural supply shock measured in millions of barrels.
The UAE's exit from OPEC effective May 1 adds further complexity. Abu Dhabi is now free to set its own production levels independently, potentially adding supply outside the cartel's coordination framework -- a dynamic that could accelerate the erosion of OPEC+'s relevance as a price-setting mechanism, as Nordea Bank analyst Jan von Gerich warned following the UAE's withdrawal announcement.
Markets Price Significant Further Oil Upside
Despite the symbolic nature of the production increase, prediction market data suggests traders expect oil prices to move materially higher before the end of May. According to PolyBeats data from Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude hitting $110 on a single day this month stands at 75%, while the probability of reaching $120 is priced at 45% and $130 at 22% -- a distribution that reflects persistent uncertainty around the Hormuz situation and the risk of further military escalation.
With WTI currently trading around $102 per barrel following Friday's ceasefire proposal-driven pullback, a move to $110 would represent an approximately 8% increase from current levels -- a threshold the market views as more likely than not before June.
Crypto and Macro Implications
For Bitcoin and risk assets, the combination of a symbolic OPEC+ increase and elevated Polymarket oil price probabilities reinforces the inflationary headwind that has been capping risk appetite through April and into May. A sustained move toward $110--$120 WTI would keep inflation expectations elevated, reduce the probability of Fed rate cuts further into the distance, and maintain the higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop that has been one of the primary constraints on Bitcoin's ability to break decisively above $79,000--$80,000.
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Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $78,000 as Senate Clears Clarity Act Hurdle and S&P 500 Sets New Record
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin recovered to $78,180 in Asian Saturday trading, up 0.8% on the week, after rebounding from a Wednesday low of $75,500 triggered by fresh Iran military escalation reports
Iran relayed a new ceasefire proposal to Washington through Pakistan on Friday, sending WTI crude falling nearly 3% to approximately $102 per barrel and supporting the Bitcoin bounce
The Senate released Clarity Act compromise text Friday, banning yield on stablecoin reserves while preserving activity-based rewards -- clearing the path for a Senate Banking Committee markup
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high for a fifth straight weekly gain; the Nasdaq 100 hit its own record, lifted by Apple (+3.2%) and Oracle (+6.5%)
Dogecoin outperformed all major crypto assets, surging nearly 10% on the week to $0.105 with futures open interest hitting a year-high
ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria says Bitcoin's range-bound behavior reflects macro indecision rather than crypto-specific weakness, and that institutional re-engagement could move prices "pretty quickly"
Bitcoin climbed back above $78,000 in Asian trading on Saturday, recovering from a volatile week that saw the asset dip to $75,500 on Iran escalation fears before rebounding on fresh ceasefire signals and a landmark crypto legislative development that removes one of the most contentious obstacles to US crypto market structure law.
The largest cryptocurrency traded at $78,180, up 0.8% on the week, as two developments converged to improve sentiment heading into the weekend: Tehran's delivery of a new ceasefire proposal to Washington through Pakistani intermediaries, which sent WTI crude falling nearly 3% to approximately $102 per barrel, and the Senate's release of long-awaited Clarity Act compromise language that resolves months of deadlock between crypto firms and bank lobbyists.
Clarity Act Breakthrough
The Senate released the negotiated Clarity Act compromise text on Friday, ending one of the bill's most contentious sticking points. The agreement -- reached by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks -- would prohibit stablecoin issuers from offering yield based purely on holding reserves, a concession to the banking industry that had argued such products threatened their deposit base. Critically for crypto firms, activity-based reward programs structured as incentives for platform participation are preserved under the compromise.
Coinbase, which had been at the center of the negotiations, signaled immediate support. Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said the language "preserves activity-based rewards tied to real participation on crypto platforms and networks, which is what the bank lobby said they wanted."
The compromise clears the path for a Senate Banking Committee markup -- the formal hearing where the bill is debated and amended -- bringing the Clarity Act closer to a full Senate vote than it has been at any point in the legislative process. If enacted, Treasury and the CFTC would have one year to write detailed rules governing what crypto firms can and cannot do with yield products.
Equities Hit Records; Iran Risk Eases
US equity markets had a significantly stronger week than crypto. The S&P 500 closed Friday at an all-time high, marking a fifth consecutive weekly gain on the back of strong megacap tech earnings. The Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.9% to its own record, with Apple gaining 3.2% after a better-than-expected revenue outlook and Oracle surging 6.5% following news it had joined the list of AI firms working with Pentagon classified networks.
The Iran ceasefire signal was the week's most important macro development for energy and risk markets. Tehran's new proposal, relayed through Pakistan, reduced the immediate risk of military escalation and triggered a sharp pullback in crude prices -- removing one of the key inflationary pressures that had been capping Bitcoin's ability to build on the $75,000 support level.
Macro Indecision Keeps Bitcoin
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin recovered to $78,180 in Asian Saturday trading, up 0.8% on the week, after rebounding from a Wednesday low of $75,500 triggered by fresh Iran military escalation reports
Iran relayed a new ceasefire proposal to Washington through Pakistan on Friday, sending WTI crude falling nearly 3% to approximately $102 per barrel and supporting the Bitcoin bounce
The Senate released Clarity Act compromise text Friday, banning yield on stablecoin reserves while preserving activity-based rewards -- clearing the path for a Senate Banking Committee markup
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high for a fifth straight weekly gain; the Nasdaq 100 hit its own record, lifted by Apple (+3.2%) and Oracle (+6.5%)
Dogecoin outperformed all major crypto assets, surging nearly 10% on the week to $0.105 with futures open interest hitting a year-high
ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria says Bitcoin's range-bound behavior reflects macro indecision rather than crypto-specific weakness, and that institutional re-engagement could move prices "pretty quickly"
Bitcoin climbed back above $78,000 in Asian trading on Saturday, recovering from a volatile week that saw the asset dip to $75,500 on Iran escalation fears before rebounding on fresh ceasefire signals and a landmark crypto legislative development that removes one of the most contentious obstacles to US crypto market structure law.
The largest cryptocurrency traded at $78,180, up 0.8% on the week, as two developments converged to improve sentiment heading into the weekend: Tehran's delivery of a new ceasefire proposal to Washington through Pakistani intermediaries, which sent WTI crude falling nearly 3% to approximately $102 per barrel, and the Senate's release of long-awaited Clarity Act compromise language that resolves months of deadlock between crypto firms and bank lobbyists.
Clarity Act Breakthrough
The Senate released the negotiated Clarity Act compromise text on Friday, ending one of the bill's most contentious sticking points. The agreement -- reached by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks -- would prohibit stablecoin issuers from offering yield based purely on holding reserves, a concession to the banking industry that had argued such products threatened their deposit base. Critically for crypto firms, activity-based reward programs structured as incentives for platform participation are preserved under the compromise.
Coinbase, which had been at the center of the negotiations, signaled immediate support. Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said the language "preserves activity-based rewards tied to real participation on crypto platforms and networks, which is what the bank lobby said they wanted."
The compromise clears the path for a Senate Banking Committee markup -- the formal hearing where the bill is debated and amended -- bringing the Clarity Act closer to a full Senate vote than it has been at any point in the legislative process. If enacted, Treasury and the CFTC would have one year to write detailed rules governing what crypto firms can and cannot do with yield products.
Equities Hit Records; Iran Risk Eases
US equity markets had a significantly stronger week than crypto. The S&P 500 closed Friday at an all-time high, marking a fifth consecutive weekly gain on the back of strong megacap tech earnings. The Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.9% to its own record, with Apple gaining 3.2% after a better-than-expected revenue outlook and Oracle surging 6.5% following news it had joined the list of AI firms working with Pentagon classified networks.
The Iran ceasefire signal was the week's most important macro development for energy and risk markets. Tehran's new proposal, relayed through Pakistan, reduced the immediate risk of military escalation and triggered a sharp pullback in crude prices -- removing one of the key inflationary pressures that had been capping Bitcoin's ability to build on the $75,000 support level.
Macro Indecision Keeps Bitcoin
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Ethereum Mainnet Achieves Record Monthly Transaction Volume
Ethereum's mainnet has recently reached a historic milestone with its monthly transaction volume hitting 72.8 million transactions. According to ChainCatcher, this record-breaking activity is distributed across various categories: token transfers account for 62%, utility transactions (including inscriptions) make up 13%, financial transactions comprise 8%, cross-chain transactions represent 2%, and unmarked transactions constitute 15%.
Ethereum's mainnet has recently reached a historic milestone with its monthly transaction volume hitting 72.8 million transactions. According to ChainCatcher, this record-breaking activity is distributed across various categories: token transfers account for 62%, utility transactions (including inscriptions) make up 13%, financial transactions comprise 8%, cross-chain transactions represent 2%, and unmarked transactions constitute 15%.
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CFTC Chair Predicts Legalization of Crypto Perpetual Contracts in the U.S.
CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig has indicated that genuine crypto perpetual contracts might be legalized in the United States within the next few weeks to a month. According to NS3.AI, Selig mentioned that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is working on resolving classification issues related to perpetual contracts to replace the existing quasi-perpetual workarounds.
CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig has indicated that genuine crypto perpetual contracts might be legalized in the United States within the next few weeks to a month. According to NS3.AI, Selig mentioned that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is working on resolving classification issues related to perpetual contracts to replace the existing quasi-perpetual workarounds.
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U.S. President Trump Ends Hostilities with Iran, Notifies Congress
U.S. President Donald Trump informed Congress on Friday that hostilities with Iran concluded in April, allowing the White House to bypass congressional authorization. According to Odaily, under the 1973 War Powers Act, the U.S. President can deploy military forces overseas for up to 60 days without congressional approval. Trump's 60-day war authority expired on May 1. In his letter, Trump stated that the U.S. ceased military operations against Iran on April 7, following a temporary ceasefire agreement between the two nations, which has since been extended. If hostilities resume, the 60-day countdown will reset and begin anewβa legal interpretation likely to be challenged by Senate Democrats. "Since April 7, 2026, there has been no exchange of fire between U.S. forces and Iran. Hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have now ended," Trump wrote in the letter.
U.S. President Donald Trump informed Congress on Friday that hostilities with Iran concluded in April, allowing the White House to bypass congressional authorization. According to Odaily, under the 1973 War Powers Act, the U.S. President can deploy military forces overseas for up to 60 days without congressional approval. Trump's 60-day war authority expired on May 1. In his letter, Trump stated that the U.S. ceased military operations against Iran on April 7, following a temporary ceasefire agreement between the two nations, which has since been extended. If hostilities resume, the 60-day countdown will reset and begin anewβa legal interpretation likely to be challenged by Senate Democrats. "Since April 7, 2026, there has been no exchange of fire between U.S. forces and Iran. Hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have now ended," Trump wrote in the letter.
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β’ BTC is tightly consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. Breakout soon β above β 79.5K+, below β 77.2K. Wait for confirmation.
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β€βπ₯1π₯1π1π―1
BITCOIN closed 2 straight green months! Bear Cycle still valid??
First of all Happy Labor Day to those who celebrate it and on that note, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed 2 straight green months! This is a rare feat for a Bear Cycle as since 2011 and the first ever Bear Cycle, BTC recorded 2 straight green 1M candles only on two occasions.
First time during the 2014 Bear Cycle between May - June and a second time during the 2022 Bear Cycle between February - March. So the third time ever for that feat just took place. There have never been 3 straight green months on a Bear Cycle, so historically we should see BTC resuming the downtrend this month.
It is also interesting to note that both previous occasions took place exactly half-way (2014) through the Bear Cycle or marginally earlier (2022). This technically confirms the sentiment that we have been expressing on previous analyses, that we are currently in the middle of the 2026 Bear Cycle.
Also, we have a historic first. With April's closing, we have this month the first ever emergence of the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line, actually dash). Despite Bitcoin being around since 2009, it just now completed the necessary price (candle) action to display a 1M MA200 and that just shows what investing is about on the long-term scale. Patience.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals
First of all Happy Labor Day to those who celebrate it and on that note, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed 2 straight green months! This is a rare feat for a Bear Cycle as since 2011 and the first ever Bear Cycle, BTC recorded 2 straight green 1M candles only on two occasions.
First time during the 2014 Bear Cycle between May - June and a second time during the 2022 Bear Cycle between February - March. So the third time ever for that feat just took place. There have never been 3 straight green months on a Bear Cycle, so historically we should see BTC resuming the downtrend this month.
It is also interesting to note that both previous occasions took place exactly half-way (2014) through the Bear Cycle or marginally earlier (2022). This technically confirms the sentiment that we have been expressing on previous analyses, that we are currently in the middle of the 2026 Bear Cycle.
Also, we have a historic first. With April's closing, we have this month the first ever emergence of the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line, actually dash). Despite Bitcoin being around since 2009, it just now completed the necessary price (candle) action to display a 1M MA200 and that just shows what investing is about on the long-term scale. Patience.
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π1
πͺ Coin: BABY/USDT
βοΈ Type: #LONG
π Entry: 0.028 β 0.027
π SL: 0.026
π― TPs:
TP1: 0.029
TP2: 0.031
TP3: 0.035
π‘ Risk: 2β3% margin
β‘ Enter only in zone
β SL follow mandatory
βοΈ Type: #LONG
π Entry: 0.028 β 0.027
π SL: 0.026
π― TPs:
TP1: 0.029
TP2: 0.031
TP3: 0.035
π‘ Risk: 2β3% margin
β‘ Enter only in zone
β SL follow mandatory
π1
π π’π‘ππ¦π§π₯πππ
πͺ Coin: BABY/USDT βοΈ Type: #LONG π Entry: 0.028 β 0.027 π SL: 0.026 π― TPs: TP1: 0.029 TP2: 0.031 TP3: 0.035 π‘ Risk: 2β3% margin β‘ Enter only in zone β SL follow mandatory
π ACCURACY-BT20X π
β‘PUBLIC SIGNAL
π VIP: @BT_20X
πͺ Pair: BABY/USDT
π― Target 1 : HIT βοΈ
π Profit: +130% π
β‘PUBLIC SIGNAL
π VIP: @BT_20X
π₯1
π¨ MARKET ANALYSIS β UB/USDT π
The UB/USDT chart is clearly showing a bearish structure π
Price has recently formed lower highs and lower lows, confirming a downtrend β
π» Key Resistance: 0.125 β 0.128
π» Strong Support: 0.117 β 0.112
If this support zone breaks, a strong dump can be expected β οΈ
π― Next Targets:
βͺοΈ 0.110
βͺοΈ 0.097
βͺοΈ 0.081 (Major demand zone)
The UB/USDT chart is clearly showing a bearish structure π
Price has recently formed lower highs and lower lows, confirming a downtrend β
π» Key Resistance: 0.125 β 0.128
π» Strong Support: 0.117 β 0.112
If this support zone breaks, a strong dump can be expected β οΈ
π― Next Targets:
βͺοΈ 0.110
βͺοΈ 0.097
βͺοΈ 0.081 (Major demand zone)
π1
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π₯1
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πͺ Coin: ORCA/USDT
βοΈ Type: #LONG
π Entry: 1.46 β 1.42
π SL: 1.38
π― TPs:
TP1: 1.50
TP2: 1.58
TP3: 1.74
π‘ Risk: 2β3% margin
β‘ Enter only in zone
β SL follow mandatory
βοΈ Type: #LONG
π Entry: 1.46 β 1.42
π SL: 1.38
π― TPs:
TP1: 1.50
TP2: 1.58
TP3: 1.74
π‘ Risk: 2β3% margin
β‘ Enter only in zone
β SL follow mandatory
β€βπ₯2π2β€1π₯1
π π’π‘ππ¦π§π₯πππ
πͺ Coin: ORCA/USDT βοΈ Type: #LONG π Entry: 1.46 β 1.42 π SL: 1.38 π― TPs: TP1: 1.50 TP2: 1.58 TP3: 1.74 π‘ Risk: 2β3% margin β‘ Enter only in zone β SL follow mandatory
π ACCURACY-BT20X π
β‘PUBLIC SIGNAL
πͺ Pair: ORCA/USDT
π― Target 2 : HIT βοΈ
π Profit: +240% π
β‘PUBLIC SIGNAL
π₯1
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π1