Viktor Leonov
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Intelligence and Defense Analyst ✍️
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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ Who Violated the MoU?

Iran's position was that all passage through the Strait of Hormuz should be coordinated with Iran, Oman, and the Gulf states. According to Tehran, Article 5 of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) recognized Iran's role in this coordination.

However, Iran believed the United States was quietly pursuing a different strategy. By escorting ships along a route closer to Oman's side of the strait, Washington was, in Iran's view, trying to create an alternative shipping lane that would reduce Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.

From Iran's perspective, this was a violation of the spirit of the MoU. Although the agreement recognized Iran's coordinating role, the new route was seen as an attempt to bypass that arrangement without formally changing the agreement.

Under this interpretation, Iran's attacks on ships using the Omani-side route were a response to what it considered the first breach of the MoU. The core argument is that creating an alternative corridor weakened Iran's agreed role in coordinating passage through the strait, making it a form of passive aggression against Iran's strategic position.

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🇮🇷🇯🇴🇺🇸 — Low-quality satellite images released by Iranian media allegedly show the aftermath of Iranian missile strikes on Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. @IntelSlava
🇮🇷🇯🇴🇺🇸 — OSINT analysis indicates Iran’s ballistic missile strike on Al Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan destroyed 2x hangars at the base, based on current information.

➡️ The precision of the Iranian strike on the hangars is notable.

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🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦 — Personally, I believe Lindsey Graham was eliminated by Putin

Remember, he confidently laughed while saying the war had cost many Russian lives and its best investment.

Remember when he advocated for the assassination of Putin, and Russia put him on its terrorist list.

Remember that he was one of the major influencers behind the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei.

He died in Kyiv, some hours before his death was announced by his family. A hotel in Kyiv and a drone factory were targeted by Russia — said to be the same factory he visited. There is no evidence that he returned to the USA. Zero evidence.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 — BREAKING: Trump formally notified Congress that fighting has resumed in Iran, New York Times reports.
🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — You don’t notify Congress under the War Powers Resolution over tit-for-tat — this is no longer limited retaliation, but a full-scale resumption quietly advancing under “defensive” language so no one has to announce it.

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🇸🇦🇾🇪🇾🇪⚡️ — SAUDI ARABIA’S FAILED STRIKE ON SANA’A

Saudi Arabia reportedly launched around ten Storm Shadow cruise missiles — roughly $2 million each — from a safe standoff distance to hit the runway at Sana’a airport. Despite the cost and firepower, the strike failed to achieve its main objective.

The decision to strike from maximum range rather than risk closer engagement speaks directly to Riyadh’s fear of Yemeni air defenses.
The more revealing detail is political, not military. Saudi Arabia has declined to claim the attack — instead, its proxy in Aden has taken credit, as though that faction possessed Storm Shadow cruise missiles or the fighter jets to deliver them. The fiction fools no one. A power confident in its position claims its strikes. Riyadh’s refusal to do so points to one thing: fear of Yemeni retaliation.

Two conclusions stand out. First, the operation failed on its own terms — expensive munitions expended for no decisive result. Second, and more tellingly, Saudi Arabia is unwilling to own the attack, outsourcing responsibility to a proxy to shield itself from the consequences. That is not the posture of a confident aggressor — it is the posture of one that fears what comes next.

- Viktor Leonov

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 — The US is primarily targeting communication towers along Iran's southern coastline. Strikes on communication towers are the kind of action that would typically precede or enable a ground invasion. Weakening Iran's defensive posture in the south and disrupting its command-and-control infrastructure appear to be the primary US objectives at this stage.

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🇮🇷🇯🇴🇺🇸 WHY IRAN IS NOW FOCUSED ON JORDAN

Jordan has quietly become the center of US operations in the region. As the war escalated, Washington moved forces out of Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar, more exposed and harder to rely on politically, and shifted them into Jordan. Other Gulf allies also started limiting US basing and overflight rights, which left Jordan as the main hub for American air operations across Syria, Iraq, and beyond.

That's why Iran is hitting it now. The US concentrated its forces in one place, so that place became the obvious target. The strikes on Azraq and King Faisal aren't really about the bases themselves, they're meant to make hosting American troops more trouble than it's worth, and to put pressure on the one location Washington thought was safe.

The pace shows the intent: four attacks in five days, dozens of US troops wounded, and a significant number of US Blackhawk helicopters damaged, according to NYT. Iran isn't just making a point, it's showing it still has plenty of missiles and can now reach a place the US assumed was out of range.

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🇮🇷🇯🇴🇺🇸 — Satellite imagery confirms an aircraft hangar at King Faisal Air Base in Jordan was destroyed, with black smoke indicating an F-15 inside was successfully struck.

➡️ Low-resolution satellite imagery shows the hangar at King Faisal Air Base destroyed, with black smoke consistent with a burning aircraft.

➡️ The IRGC had previously announced it struck an F-15 hangar at the base.

➡️ Coordinates: 30.344352, 36.129351 (Credit to EGYOSINT).

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🇮🇷🇮🇶👑 —IRGC drone strike Kurdish separatist party headquarters in Koya, Erbil, with columns of smoke rising from the site. @IntelSlava
🇮🇷🇮🇶🌞 — Iran recently destroyed a massive amount of missile, ammunition, mortar, shell, and rocket stockpiles and depots belonging to Kurdish separatist parties in the Kurdistan region. These weapons were supplied by Mossad and the CIA to wage a diversionary attack on Iran while the US was conducting its limited ground invasion on the southern coast of Iran.

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