Intel Slava
The Trump administration may lack legal standing to waive US sanctions on Iranian oil under last week’s agreement
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Ukraine has made a deliberate choice to target Russia’s energy infrastructure — refineries, power stations, the systems that keep ordinary life running. If Kyiv intends to fight this war by switching off the lights, then it cannot expect its own arteries to remain untouched.
Russia’s response should rest on two pillars.
First, symmetry. Every Ukrainian strike on Russian energy infrastructure should be met with a corresponding strike on Ukraine’s own grid. This is not escalation for its own sake; it is the basic logic of deterrence. A side that pays no price for hitting power stations has every incentive to keep hitting them. Impose a cost, and the calculation changes.
Second, the sea. Ukraine’s economic lifeline runs through its Black Sea ports, and that lifeline is exposed. Moscow does not need a formal blockade to make it bleed. Mining the approaches, striking port infrastructure, and raising the risk and insurance cost of every vessel that sails for Odesa would tighten the noose on Kyiv’s exports without a single ship having to hold a cordon. Pressure on the water can be applied in degrees — and each degree drains the revenue and resupply that the sea still provides.
The principle behind both is the same one that governs every serious conflict: pressure is met with pressure. Ukraine and its backers have grown comfortable striking deep while expecting restraint in return. That asymmetry is a luxury Russia has no reason to grant.
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Intel Slava
Iran is ready for a preemptive operation, the head of the Army’s Strategic Research Center says.
Currently, this is what is happening: the regional balance is shaken, and Iran is gaining the momentum to confidently assume an offensive position when demands and threats are detected. These are initial signs that Israeli confidence is shaken and that they are exercising more caution than before. Iran is now the one establishing redlines in the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon and preemptively striking Israel if those redlines are violated.
This is not yet long-term success, but rather the initial path toward achieving long-term success and dominance in the region, alongside a weakening of US hegemony in West Asia. Iran needs to sustain and maintain its offensive capabilities to secure a long-term victory in this competition.
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Intel Slava
CENTCOM announces retaliatory strikes on Iran following drone attack on commercial vessel in Strait of Hormuz.
As we have stated many times, there is no confidence in a peaceful agreement. The US is just preparing for another wave of strikes against Iran, and they did it again tonight. The IRGC will respond, and further escalation is expected. The US will never stop its aggression.
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Intel Slava
officials estimate 10 to 20 million mourners across the multi-day ceremonies
- IRGC resistance to Israeli and US aggression has made Iranians think twice, even many opposition members have now shifted their views to "Iran first" and supporting the regime, instead of hoping for Epstein's friends to devastate Iran.
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