Viktor Leonov
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Intelligence and Defense Analyst ✍️
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Intel Slava
The Trump administration may lack legal standing to waive US sanctions on Iranian oil under last week’s agreement
🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — So basically, as stated many times, Congress will never allow J.D. Vance to freely act as a nice guy toward Iran. They only have a limited amount of time before Congress intervenes. That is US foreign policy: Iran should be isolated, sanctioned, attacked, and destroyed according to their policies. Therefore, no one should believe in US niceness.

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🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️ — Russia Should Answer Strikes on Its Energy Grid with Maritime Pressure on Ukraine

Ukraine has made a deliberate choice to target Russia’s energy infrastructure — refineries, power stations, the systems that keep ordinary life running. If Kyiv intends to fight this war by switching off the lights, then it cannot expect its own arteries to remain untouched.

Russia’s response should rest on two pillars.

First, symmetry. Every Ukrainian strike on Russian energy infrastructure should be met with a corresponding strike on Ukraine’s own grid. This is not escalation for its own sake; it is the basic logic of deterrence. A side that pays no price for hitting power stations has every incentive to keep hitting them. Impose a cost, and the calculation changes.

Second, the sea. Ukraine’s economic lifeline runs through its Black Sea ports, and that lifeline is exposed. Moscow does not need a formal blockade to make it bleed. Mining the approaches, striking port infrastructure, and raising the risk and insurance cost of every vessel that sails for Odesa would tighten the noose on Kyiv’s exports without a single ship having to hold a cordon. Pressure on the water can be applied in degrees — and each degree drains the revenue and resupply that the sea still provides.

The principle behind both is the same one that governs every serious conflict: pressure is met with pressure. Ukraine and its backers have grown comfortable striking deep while expecting restraint in return. That asymmetry is a luxury Russia has no reason to grant.

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Intel Slava
Iran is ready for a preemptive operation, the head of the Army’s Strategic Research Center says.
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱⚡️ — It is almost impossible for Iran to achieve long-term success without shifting its doctrine from defensive shock absorption against US and Israeli aggression to a preemptive strike and offensive posture against US and Israeli military assets.

Currently, this is what is happening: the regional balance is shaken, and Iran is gaining the momentum to confidently assume an offensive position when demands and threats are detected. These are initial signs that Israeli confidence is shaken and that they are exercising more caution than before. Iran is now the one establishing redlines in the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon and preemptively striking Israel if those redlines are violated.

This is not yet long-term success, but rather the initial path toward achieving long-term success and dominance in the region, alongside a weakening of US hegemony in West Asia. Iran needs to sustain and maintain its offensive capabilities to secure a long-term victory in this competition.

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Intel Slava
CENTCOM announces retaliatory strikes on Iran following drone attack on commercial vessel in Strait of Hormuz.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 — UPDATE: US ATTACKED IRAN AGAIN

As we have stated many times, there is no confidence in a peaceful agreement. The US is just preparing for another wave of strikes against Iran, and they did it again tonight. The IRGC will respond, and further escalation is expected. The US will never stop its aggression.

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🗂 — Dear subs, consider joining The New Dawn folder. The New Dawn is a network of some (16) news channels that will keep you updated about the conflicts around the world.

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 INTEL SLAVA — SITUATION BRIEF, 6:00 AM

➡️ Russia launched one of the largest combined missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in weeks overnight, targeting Kyiv and multiple regions simultaneously.

➡️ Approximately 20+ cruise missiles, including multiple waves of Kh-101, Kh-59/69, and Kalibr missiles, struck Kyiv from the east and south.

➡️ Ukrainian air defenses were largely overwhelmed — with multiple confirmed impacts in eastern Kyiv, the city centre, Brovary, and Boryspil. Fires broke out across the capital, including near an administrative building.

➡️ Simultaneous strikes hit Cherkasy, Sumy, Kryvyi Rih, Kamyanske, and Kirovohrad. Geran drones targeted Snihurivka in Mykolaiv region and multiple sites in Poltava region.

➡️ Ukrainian military sources report that the pace of Russia’s offensive in June increased sixfold compared to May — tonight’s attack confirms that trajectory is not slowing.

➡️ Russia continues its systematic degradation of Ukrainian air defense, energy, and logistics infrastructure. Further waves remain possible in the coming hours.

— Intel Slava (Viktor Leonov)

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Intel Slava
officials estimate 10 to 20 million mourners across the multi-day ceremonies
🇮🇷⚡️ — The number of people attending funerals and supporting the Islamic Republic is always and absolutely greater than the so-called big protests inside Iran, which are only fueled by Mossad riots, and only a few people compared to these millions of supporters of the regime.

- IRGC resistance to Israeli and US aggression has made Iranians think twice, even many opposition members have now shifted their views to "Iran first" and supporting the regime, instead of hoping for Epstein's friends to devastate Iran.

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Intel Slava
🇺🇸🇮🇷 — BREAKING: According to some U.S. journalists, the strikes on Iran are not proportional and further strikes should be expected.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 — This time the strikes are far more different than all strikes carried out by the US since the April 8 ceasefire, and they clearly targeted city centers instead of coastal bases. Let's see where this goes.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 — NASA satellite data has detected fires at two port facilities in Bandar Abbas, consistent with recent US strikes.

➡️ Fires identified at two locations: Posht-e Shahr Pier and the Army Pier (military dock).

➡️ NASA satellite imagery indicates the fires are likely a result of the latest US retaliatory strikes in the area.

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🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 ⚡️ — A full-scale escalation between the US, Israel, and Iran is assessed as highly likely within the coming hours or days.

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Intel Slava
🇺🇸🇮🇷 — The Gorgan railway line in Golestan province has been struck, monitoring channels report.
🇮🇱🇮🇷 — This was a very different attack. Golestan province is outside of the southern Iranian coastline which has been consistently targeted by the US since the April 8 ceasefire. A train station was attacked there — there is probably a bunker below the station, a bunker-buster missile was likely used, and this is more likely an assassination attempt made by the Israeli Air Force.

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Viktor Leonov
🇮🇱🇮🇷 — This was a very different attack. Golestan province is outside of the southern Iranian coastline which has been consistently targeted by the US since the April 8 ceasefire. A train station was attacked there — there is probably a bunker below the station…
🇮🇱🇮🇷 — Another angle is that this train may have been carrying military equipment and components from China, serving as a logistical hub for the IRGC, and was potentially targeted to disrupt this supply chain.

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