6- Should Hamas declare a victory if it secures a deal to rebuild Gaza and free prisoners

No, unfortunately out of if respect to everyone who was killed and everyone who was injured, this is not a war to declare victory in.

This is a war to be added to the path of thorns on the path to liberation, a path full of thorns as is any path to fight against a superior arrogant, criminal, and terrorist occupation

After the war, they should rebuild themselves, remedy the pain of the people, uplift them, and prepare for defense and empowerment as the enemy is still there.

Care for the people, they are everything. Learn from the mistakes and fortify the homefront.. fortify it.

7- Did Hezbullah do the right things on 8-October?

Yes, Hezbullah took the correct decision on 8-October to engage the Israeli army in support of the Gaza.

This was a fruit of the 2021 Jerusalem swords that became ripe, where efforts can join to help each other against Israel.

That, and Hezbullah had a moral duty to help support Gaza in the face of the upcoming massacre that was unfolding.

On the first day Israel started to kill people by the hundreds in Gaza, by the second day they almost crossed a 1,000 and day after day it only ever got worse.

Today Gaza suffered 41,000 thousand deaths and 150,000 injured. People are under rubble, people are lost, etc etc.

It was Hezbullahs moral duty to help.

8- How did Hezbullah help

Hezbollah started with limited attacks targeting Israeli cameras and spy equipment that threatens Lebanon

Day by day they resorted to more attacks and only later expanded to attacks Israeli border bases.

And as Israel escalated the situation, Hezbullah expanded the scope of the attacks but for all scenarios, they kept themselves limited and confined themselves to the border area.

Meron that was a target, was a mere 8km from the border. The Israeli attacks were daily 8km deep and more.

As Israel continued to escalate, Hezbullah stayed confined.

These attacks, had a few goals which were to pressure the Israeli army to divert resources away from Gaza, pressure the Israeli army to shorten the war, try to instill fear in the Israeli enemy to avoid a bigger war, etc..

Many of these goals were achieved, and Hezbullah was successful in keeping the war limited in Lebanon by limiting it to the border area. Beirut stayed safe, Beqaa/Baalbek stayed safe, and the depth of south Lebanon stayed safe.

Sayyed Hassan explained enough about the achievementd then, so please refer to him

9- Did Hezbullah gamble? Did they help Gaza enough as they would have hoped?

Yes it was a gambe whose results were not clear, and they were guided by projection of old deterrence and power buildup over the years.

It was a gamble with unclear results because Hezbullah assumed the military power they have, the 18-year-long detterence and the Israeli fear of war in Lebanon would allow Hezbullah to work and avoid an all-out-war.

This was a gamble because Israel was going to launch a pre-emptive war on 11-Oct in Lebanon and was planning to kill Sayyed Nasrallah then. But Israel decided to focus on Gaza and once they were done, focus on Lebanon

This gave Hezbullah a fake illusion of comfort and assumed Israel us truly bound by the rules. Will get back to this.

So with all this effort made, the effects done on the army, the damage caused on Israel, Hezbullah was not able to save Gaza.

After a couple of months in this war, Hezbullah reached a peak to what effectiveness this support front could achieve and by reaching this climax reached a deadly limitation.

Crossing it is causing a war in Lebanon which they tired hard to avoid, and stopping it, was a defeat for Hezbullah and an embarrassment of abandoning Gaza

They had no choice but keep the same pace, no matter the losses.

10- How bad were Hezbullah's losses these past 12 months. How did Hezbullah not escalate. How did Israel bluff Hezbullah?

In this battle as Hezbullah inflicted the possible losses against the Israeli army, the army inflicted even higher casualties and losses in Hezbullah.

I discussed before how the Israeli army is taking all defensive measures to stay safe and limit casualties in its ranks, you can refer to the pinned.

In comparison, as the Israeli army was hiding, Hezbullah was doing miraculous work to operate from evacuated border villages and engage the Israeli army at a disadvantage.

They did amazing and professional work and maintained the operations despite the threats.

Evidently, they were in a fragile and unsafe conditions, so casualties started to add up day after day and spike on attacks that targeted buildings where on rare occasions they were in.

In 11 months, Hezbullah suffered about 500 martyrs. Amal also suffered about 2 dozen.

Situation was sustainable, so Hezbullah didn't change. Although with every new village and every city, new maryr photos were hanged, it was a little price for this right choice

My family suffered one martyr and one severe injury.

However while Hezbullah viewed the situation as sustainable, Israel viewed the situation as a gold mine to escalate little day by day because Hezbullah was afraid of escalation.

Yes, they saw the weakeness through this show of power. This weakness was not in the heart of the material or ability, but the mindset of Hezbullah regarding not wanting to escalate this war.

This was enough for Israel to bluff its way into what we are in today.

This was first evident with Hezbullah limited response to Al-Arouri's murder, then the first signs that Israel started to degrade Hezbullah.

This was the day they killed Abu Taleb, the response was bigger than usual but not harsh enough to detter.

Then Abu Ne'meh was killed. Now 2/3 of divisional commanders have been lost, people who are leaders and future commanders of Hezbullah.

Through this and that, Israel targeted local commanders and influential people who have an impact on Hezbullah's war effort.

Between that and this, the deterrence eorded so badly, Israel needed one excuse no matter what to start the path to decapicating Hezbullah.

And then came the cursed day of Majdal Shams, and Hezbullah was accused of this despite contradictory evidence.

It was the golden excuse Israel needed. During all that, Hezbullah kept the same pace and unfortunately, didn't expect what was coming.

Like a poker game, halal way. You gambled, you won some rounds, and the opponent bluffed, and you lost this game.

But hey, you didn't lose all your winnings tonight. You hope to save them or at least end the game with your initial balance

11- Did Hezbullah fail to understand the Israeli motives? Were they really bluffed?

Hezbullah underestimated the state of the Israeli army and were overconfident that Netanyahu will not expand his war to Lebanon and that eventually some settlement will be reached that will end the war in Gaza and conclude the battle in Lebanon

To an extent, Hezbullah kept telling Israel through public speeches that this a support front not a war, and they will stop as soon as the war in Gaza stops.

Israel later on rejected this, and was clear when it said the battle in Lebanon will not be stopped if the war ends in Gaza. Decision was taken then.

Hezbullah definitely sensed there was a looming threat and an increase of hostilities, however they didn't expect this to expand to what it is today, not so soon anyway.

In recent speeches by Sayyed and others, they openly said that Israel isn't ready not has the motives to do so.

Hezbullah knows Israel well, they understand it well, but something happened in the assessment or simply something was miscalculated.

12- Why didn't Hezbullah takes precautions?

After the assassination of Hezbullah's Chief of Staff, over the fake accusation of Majdal Shams, it became clear that things needed to change. Why didn't they

To be clear here, no one expected Israel to aim that high. No one, especially over a controversial case like this. I personally expected a very strong wave of attacks in south Lebanon and then some sonic booms in Beirut to reign terror then an increase in overall fire.

Hezbullah was definitely shocked, because they were operating in Beirut, business as usual. They didn't sense the severity of the Israeli threats, no one did. Notably Israel accused some local field commander, marking him as a target as a way to bluff.

With Hajj Mohsin's traggic loss, just after Hezbullah very weak response thsy failed to even reach the level of previous responses to lower ranks, them and there was a deal sealed forever. The war in Lebanon starts

Even Sayyed Nasrallah was not confident of the effects of the response, and said we will assess if the drones reached and if they didn't, we will act.

But what? He said he'll act very later and people in Lebanon can rest and get back to Beirut. He didn't want to burden the people more, didn't want to affect their lives more, didn't want to sabotage them.

Between the response and the declaration that tbis page was closed for now, and the situation in south Lebanon back to normal, Israel activated the most elaborate plan to deliver a severe blow to Hezbullah.

Between this and what followed, Hezbullah was not able to make a lot of precautions because the timeframe was simply too short. Worse, the Israeli intelligence on Hezbullah was enough to sabotage any precautions.

13- Was Hezbullah wrong by not escalating more?

Not at all, Hezbullah did the right thing for the people of Lebanon and hoped this war would end soon in Gaza especially that after the murder of Foad Shoqor, there was credible news of a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations.

Ending the war in Gaza was enough for Hezbullah to consider all previous losses and even Foad's good enough for what was done. However events showed that Israel lied about the ceasefire and things were never ending in Gaza.

Hezbullah was ready to accept any loss but allow this war to expand. Israel was serious and adamant to expand the war. Sayyed Hassan said, it is Israel that expanded this war and he is right.

At the end, Israel is now so arrogant, it surpasses the ego and godless actions of the worst villains in the bible and Quran.

Hezbullah did the right thing by not escalating, but by doing that he couldn't deter Israel from not causing what it did

14- Israel's sabotage attack on Hezbullah and its decapitation

What happened in September was scary, was beyond not believable, was something we never expected.

I was literally shaking from adrenaline when I started to hear the news about the pager attack.

Then and that day, it should have been clear that the war started and that Hezbullah should prepare, but we cannot know exactly what happened.

Not here to discuss the sabotage that happened, but clearly a mistake happened either through criminal negligence or through internal sabotage by a commander.

The attack caused a major blow for Hezbullah, murdering and injuring 5,000 in fee minutes. Those who used the pagerd were people who are an integral core to the functioning of Hezbullah and were like the oil in the motor.

A loss of 5,000 soldiers who cannot fulfill their roles in an immediate timeframe and the new burden of injuries on Hezbullahs care and financial institutes was beyond possible to handle

Israel effectively took out 5,000 from the core of Hezbullah. The following day, sabotaged and detonated many raidos handed to Hezbullah's reserves and those in daily work

Hezbullah was not able to take a breath yet from that major attack, the second came. Third day, it was chaos. You were afraid of something to happen, what will happen, what is suspicious?

It was crazy (continued below)

A day nothing happened, then suddenly the death of Hezbullah's Ridwan leader and commanders, who were the ones who will lead Hezbullah's war against Israel in both offense and defense.

They are the leaders of who should have been today managing this war and leading through their experience and knowledge the formations of fighters to defend Lebanon.

It was catastrophic. It was the knife they gutted out Hezbullah's spine.

Killing Foad, gutted out their heart. Ridwan's Akeel and the leadership their spine.

Then came the murder of Sayyed Hassan. And then and there they decapitated Hezbullah.

Then targeted the resistance's rocket and missile formations, cutting their arms and ability to lead the formations.

You need leaders to lead, you need knowledge and experience. What happened to Hezbullah, I swear in my life, is enough to collapse empired and countries.

Between this and that, Israel mounted a very successful air campaign that targeted Hezbullah's facilities, ceiling off tunnel entrances that are visible form the air, targeting whole valleys where Hezbullah operates from and damaging infrastructure as a byproduct. Then they attacked the local areas inside villages where Hezbullah stores what it needs for defense, etc..

It was accurate intelligence based, and that's why it had much more impact on Hezbullah than in 2006. Much more.

Of course they killed many innocent, they are murderous bastards and attacked everything indiscriminately too that day.

These events all made Hezbullah enter into a shock, because they lost their most important leader in their history, create internal fear and chaos, and denied Hezbullah many of its abilities and resources.

No matter how and what Hezbullah could have prepared for Israel, the intelligence leaks and spies were able to severely damage Hezbullah.

What they had prepared for Israel is not what you see today, not at all.

So curse curse curse, in everyone and thing that led to this weakness and inability.

15- Why didn't Hezbullah start the war when Israel attacked Akeel and the Ridwan leadership

I do wonder why. It was the second major attack in Beirut, and the second mass casualty attack that killed many civilians.

Hezbullah had the every legitimate case to attack Tel Aviv that day, and by that they could have used their strategic weapons before the losses, before the Israeli attacks on Hezbullah's facilities

However I think the reason was simply shock. They were shocked from what happened and couldn't act. I'm not exaggerating because Skeikh Naim Qassem himself said so in the future of Akeel and said they were shocked because they are humans but they overcame this shook a few days later. However a few days too late.

Situation was intense, Sayyed Hasan was killed before he could even mourn him and talk to him on TV and tell us what a great and bright intellectual he was.

Akeel was a unique man, a prodigy. The situation escalated out of control of Hezbullah

16 - Is Hezbullah well?

I don't know. I pray they are. We are too far to know and no one to ask. In war, Sayyed Hassan was the one who could have comforted us. He isn't here.

Unfortunately the speech by Sheikh Naim wasn't a good sign either. He's alive hamdella but in no way projecting comfort or power.

He was weak, sweating, sitting with a closet behind him and shaky.

Remaining of Hezbullah's historic military and political leadership is either killed or still trying to manage staying alive and by that staying out of contact

As for military action, I'll abstain from commenting. Too early. However we see clear sings of gaps and issues but thankfully they are still well enough in south Lebanon

Between the rocket launchers daily, the fast reporting of the attacks, and casualties in the ranks of the Israeli army, and the lack of collapse.

Inshallah they are well. However yes it bugs me, the lack of attempts to shoot down drones, the lack of Almas use against the invading Israeli army soldiers, the lack of ATGM attacks

Those are the joker cards, especially the Almas vs soldiers a tanks everywhere now.

17- Will we win?

I don't know. I hope, I pray and it worries me. It's a miracle Hezbullah didn't collapse yet and the work they are doing now in south Lebanon is inshallah a good sign and healthy local abilities.

Inshallah it'll only grow better and better and have the ability to mount enough casualties to make the Israeli invasion so bloody.

Bloody enough the stay in south Lebanon is bad and they are forced into a ceasefire.

We cannot afford to lose or else Lebanon will collapse and the whole Shia population will face persecution as bad as the ones Shia faced during Ummayid and Abbasid rule

I'm sad about the ones who were killed before they could fight, I'm sad about those who fought bravely and were killed, I feel sad about every single life lost.

These men, they are beautiful pure hearted, great men, amazing people. They are family, friends, husbands, fathers, they are angels

All aside, they are doing a selfless sacrifice and they are capable of defeating this Israeli enemy. They are able to achieve what we expect from them and what they expect to achieve

They will overcome, they will be able. All it needs is strong faith, patience, a strong heart and internal fire that will motivate to work and avenge Lebanon

I hope so. I want to see tangible results. I as a Lebanese as a Shia as a supporter. I want comfort.

18- Where did Hezbullah fail? When does Hezbullah fail?

They didn't fail yet. They won't fail inshallah. The only mistake they could do is lose, and inshallah they will not lose

19- What happens if they lose? What is the bad scenario

If Hezbullah lose we all lose, and losing can happen if Israel ever defeats Hezbullah and successfully reaches provincial cities like Tyre and Nabatieh and reaches the Litani river. Following this, there will be a push beyond the river and then a push to Beirut is possible.

However it really doesn't matter. If they lose and if Hezbullah is defeated, the resistance against Israel will not stop and like 1982 and 1985 they will be pushed back and they will be hit and hit till they conceed to a ceasefire or withdrawal

That I feel comfort in. Lebanese southerns will never accept this snd Israel will never belong here. This is the extreme scenario of course.

20- Who is responsible for the destruction in Lebanon?

Israel. They are responsible for the death, the destruction, everything. They are responsible for this escalation. Blame them.

They killed, they destroyed, they did everything bad. Understand this and make sure they people understand this.

Make sure people build hate to Israel and accuse them of everything and not this resistance who works for you and is from you and cares about you.

(My lastest answers are now brief because I'm tired. I'll continue this thread tomorrow if you have more equations I didn't tackle ask so I can cover.

I'll tackle questions about why doesn't Hezbullah make shelters and bunkers for people. Why does hezbullau store weapons where it does. Those controversial things)

Excuse the spelling mistakes, to tired to reread

📸 The attack on Qamatieh murdered 6, including 3 children.

The attacks are unfortunately after incitement by some accusing this Shia neighborhood in that area of hosting Hezbullah weapons or commanders. It isn't

The blood of these people is in the hands of those inciting during war time, some like Maurice from the Lebanese Forces Party who provided false accusations about Qamatieh and Souk al-Ghareb.

Two areas where countless refugees are staying. His and his likes incitement will not only put the lives of locals and refugees at risk, it will make the refugee a risk for those hosting them and force a new exodus to the streets just before winter

📸 The same location was attacked again, increasing the secondaries and errant file. Whatever was attacked is lost.

📹 Another angle of the situation in Hadath

🇱🇧l🇮🇱 At least 5 Israeli airstrikes targeted Taybeh border town.

At least a hundred airstrikes on the border villages since noon.

❗️Initial reports of 4 rotten carcasses in south Lebanon

💀 An Israeli soldier was killed and two others were wounded on the Lebanon border yesterday.

The rotten carcass is identified as Master Sgt. (res.) Etay Azulay, 25, of the elite 5515 combat mobility unit, from Oranit.

Another two soldiers of the unit were seriously wounded in the same incident, where a mortar fired by Hezbullah towards the Israeli staging grounds hit them outside/on the Lebanese border.

Despite this report, there are other egoz soldiers wounded/killed but they didn't announce yet.

❗️ Officially since yesterday night, The IDF put a third division into maneuver - the 91st Division

So now, the 98th, 91st, and 36th are operating, each division concentrating power in a single small sector.

Under the command of the division are three reserve brigades that began ground operations in the area - the Alexandroni Brigade, the Northern Nahal Brigade and the "Hazen" Armored Brigade.

All of these brigades previously operated in Gaza.

📸 Photo from their preparations, where they are amassing light weight, small, unarmored vehicles to use in Lebanon

📹 First video of the moment they started to move towards Lebanon, on foot, in an attempt to make use of the geography and infiltrate with a low heat (less vehicles, less sound, sneak, etc)

📸 Earlier this morning, about 20 rockets have been fired from Lebanon.

Hezbullah issued a statement just before 7, announcing they fired towards Karmiel

🗓 On This Day: A spark in the effort to fight the criminal terror Israeli occupation, on a painful and hard path towards a noble selfless goal with immense tolls and losses.

🇱🇧l🇮🇱 Statement by the UN forces in Lebanon:

"UNIFIL is deeply concerned by recent activities by the IDF immediately adjacent to the Mission’s position 6-52, southeast of Marun ar Ras (Sector West), inside Lebanese territory.

The IDF has been repeatedly informed of this ongoing situation through regular channels."

🇮🇪 The Irish UN observers have been threatened by this Merkava tank after refusing to leave their position inside Lebanon

❗️On the anniversary of 7-Oct, Hamas fired rockets towards central Israel targeting Tel Aviv

❗️ The Israeli army hacked the Lebanese channel Al-Mayadeen and is posting Anti-Lebanon and anti-Iran propaganda

They captioned it with sectarian talk against Shia Muslims, saying the following:

فجروا وبغوا بإزالة إسرائيل فتزلزلوا
فلما جاء أمرنا جعلنا عاليها سافلها
كربلاء كربلاء يا حزب اللات الإرهابي
جئناكم بسيوف حديدية
فإن حزب الله هم الخاسرون
مهدور دمهم، فرصة عمر! قاتلوهم وسارعوا في إنهاء الحرب

The battle on Al-Mayadeen telegram is still ongoing. It seems they took control of the channel owner or an admin, and they are unable to remove him.

📹 About 5 rockets were fired, several successfully impacted in Tel Aviv causing at least 2 injuries.

Air defenses were directed elsewhere it seems.

❗️Red Alert at Ma'a lot Tarshicha, Deir al-Asad, Karmiel, Ma'ale Yosef, Misgav