▪️Entry: $184.94
▪️Stop Loss: $169.00
▪️Take Profit: $220.00
▪️Price Target: $220.00
▪️Expected Return: +18.96%
▪️Risk: −8.62%
▪️Risk / Reward: 2.2 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 10%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −1.72%
▪️Time Horizon: 6–9 months

I’m bullish on NVIDIA here, but this is not simply a bet that “AI will keep growing.”

The market already knows NVIDIA is the dominant supplier of AI accelerators. The interesting question is whether hyperscalers and enterprises are actually willing to continue spending at the scale required to sustain NVIDIA’s growth.

My view is that we are still relatively early in the infrastructure cycle. AI workloads are becoming increasingly expensive to run, and that creates a strong incentive for companies to invest in more efficient and more powerful compute.

NVIDIA remains one of the clearest ways to express that view.

At $184.94, I think the market is giving us a reasonable entry point for a company with unusually strong structural demand. I’m targeting $220 rather than trying to call the top of the cycle.

I don't want to chase NVIDIA after a large momentum move. I want exposure while the market is still debating whether AI infrastructure spending can remain at these levels.

The $220 target represents roughly 19% upside from my entry.

The setup becomes invalid for me below $169. I would rather take a controlled loss than turn a trade into a long-term investment simply because I refuse to admit the thesis was wrong.

Bull case: Continued hyperscaler capex, strong demand for accelerated computing and positive forward guidance.

Base case: AI spending remains elevated and NVIDIA continues compounding revenue faster than the broader semiconductor sector.

Bear case: Hyperscalers reduce capex, competition increases faster than expected, or AI spending starts showing signs of exhaustion.

I think NVIDIA is one of those companies where investors constantly try to find the moment when the story stops working.

That moment will eventually come.

I just don't think we are there yet.

The reason I'm taking the position is not because I believe NVIDIA can only go up. It is because at this price, I think the potential upside justifies taking a defined amount of risk.

▪️Entry: $178.07
▪️Stop Loss: $162.00
▪️Take Profit: $200.00
▪️Price Target: $200.00
▪️Expected Return: +12.31%
▪️Risk: −9.03%
▪️Risk / Reward: 1.36 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 8%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −1.44%
▪️Time Horizon: 3–6 months

I’m becoming more constructive on NVIDIA after the recent weakness.

This is exactly the type of setup I prefer: a company with an extremely strong long-term narrative, but with enough short-term uncertainty to create a better entry.
The AI trade has become crowded. That doesn't automatically make it a bad trade. In fact, when the underlying economics remain strong, periods of skepticism can create some of the better entries.
My thesis is that NVIDIA's competitive position remains much stronger than the stock's recent price action suggests.

The market doesn't need another perfect quarter for this trade to work. It simply needs evidence that AI infrastructure spending remains durable.

At $178, NVIDIA is meaningfully below the $200 level I believe the market can reasonably revisit as sentiment improves.

I’m not trying to predict the exact bottom.

I'm buying into an area where I believe the upside/downside equation is attractive enough to justify the risk.

My invalidation level is $162.

If NVIDIA breaks that level on a fundamental deterioration rather than ordinary volatility, I would exit.
I don't want to average down indefinitely. A lower price does not automatically mean a better investment.

The most dangerous thing about NVIDIA is that everyone knows the story.

Everyone knows about AI. Everyone knows about GPUs. Everyone knows NVIDIA is dominant.

That means the edge isn't simply knowing the story.

The edge is deciding when the price gives you enough room for the story to be wrong.

At $178, I think there is enough room.

▪️Entry: $252.03
▪️Stop Loss: $225.00
▪️Take Profit: $300.00
▪️Price Target: $300.00
▪️Expected Return: +19.03%
▪️Risk: −10.72%
▪️Risk / Reward: 1.78 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 8%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −1.72%
▪️Time Horizon: 6–12 months

I’m buying AMD because I think the market is underestimating the importance of having a credible second major player in AI compute.

NVIDIA has the dominant position, but the AI infrastructure market is becoming too large for me to view AMD as simply a follower.

AMD has exposure to data-center CPUs, accelerators and the broader infrastructure buildout. That gives the company multiple ways to benefit from continued spending on compute.

The key part of my thesis is not that AMD will replace NVIDIA.

It doesn't need to.

AMD only needs to capture a meaningful portion of the incremental spending for the earnings trajectory to look materially different from what the market has historically expected from the company.

At $252, the stock is no longer cheap in absolute terms.

But I'm not buying AMD because it's cheap.

I'm buying it because I think the earnings power of the business can expand faster than the current valuation implies.

My first target is $300, representing approximately 19% upside.

The biggest risk is that AMD fails to convert its AI opportunity into meaningful revenue and margins.
If AI accelerator adoption disappoints, or if competitive pressure prevents AMD from achieving attractive economics, the thesis changes.

That's why the stop is at $225.

I don't need AMD to beat NVIDIA.

That's the misconception I think investors often make when looking at this company.

This isn't a binary “AMD vs NVIDIA” trade for me.
It's a bet that the AI infrastructure market becomes large enough for multiple winners.

If that happens, AMD doesn't need to own the market.
It just needs to own a meaningful piece of it.

▪️Entry: $246.27
▪️Stop Loss: $265.00
▪️Take Profit: $210.00
▪️Price Target: $210.00
▪️Expected Return: +14.73%
▪️Risk: −7.61%
▪️Risk / Reward: 1.94 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 7%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −1.06%
▪️Time Horizon: 1–3 months

This is a tactical short, not a long-term bearish view on AMD.

I remain interested in AMD as a structural AI story, but I think the stock is vulnerable to a short-term reset in expectations.

The problem with high-expectation stocks is that being “good” isn't always enough.

When the market has already priced in strong execution, any indication that growth is slower, margins are weaker or AI monetization is taking longer can cause a sharp repricing.

That is the setup I'm trading here.

At $246, I'm not comfortable chasing the upside after the recent run.

Instead, I'm looking for a retracement toward $210, where I would reassess the trade.

This is deliberately a shorter-duration position.
I am not making a prediction that AMD's long-term AI opportunity disappears. I'm betting that the stock can temporarily trade below current expectations.

The stop is $265.

If AMD breaks through that level, the market is telling me that the momentum is stronger than my thesis anticipated.

I will close the position.

Shorting strong companies is dangerous precisely because a good company can remain expensive for a very long time.

That's why the position is smaller and the stop is relatively tight.

I actually like AMD.

That's exactly why I'm comfortable separating the company from the trade.

A great company can be a bad short-term trade.
And a bad company can sometimes be a profitable short.
Right now I'm trading the second-order effect: expectations versus reality.

If expectations cool faster than fundamentals deteriorate, the stock can fall even while the long-term story remains intact.

▪️Entry: $324.32
▪️Stop Loss: $342.00
▪️Take Profit: $300.00
▪️Price Target: $300.00
▪️Expected Return: +7.50%
▪️Risk: −5.45%
▪️Risk / Reward: 1.38 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 6%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −0.65%
▪️Time Horizon: 1–3 months

This is a tactical short on Alphabet, not a statement that I think Google is a bad business.

Quite the opposite.

Alphabet is one of the strongest businesses in the market. That's also why expectations matter so much.
At this valuation, investors are asking the company to successfully navigate several major transitions at the same time: AI search, AI infrastructure, advertising, cloud and the potential disruption of Google's traditional search economics.

The market is increasingly focused on Google's AI capabilities.

I'm more interested in the risk that AI changes the economics of the business faster than Alphabet can fully monetize the transition.

At $324.32, I think the risk/reward has become asymmetric enough for a tactical short.

I'm targeting $300, which is a relatively modest move rather than expecting a collapse.

The trade works if sentiment cools, expectations are reset or investors simply decide that the current valuation requires more evidence.

▪️Bull case: Strong AI monetization, accelerating Cloud growth and continued advertising strength.
▪️Base case: Strong fundamentals remain intact, but valuation compresses as investors demand clearer evidence of AI economics.
▪️Bear case: AI materially disrupts search economics or requires significantly higher investment than expected.

The biggest risk to the short is simple: Alphabet continues delivering numbers that are better than the market expects.

This is exactly the type of trade where I don't want to confuse “great company” with “great entry.”

I like Alphabet.

I don't necessarily like the price I'm paying for it.

There is a difference.

I'm not betting against Google winning. I'm betting that the market may have gotten ahead of itself in pricing that success.

For a short, I don't need the business to fail.
I just need expectations to come down.

▪️Entry: $84.42
▪️Stop Loss: $72.00
▪️Take Profit: $120.00
▪️Price Target: $120.00
▪️Expected Return: +42.15%
▪️Risk: −14.71%
▪️Risk / Reward: 2.87 : 1
▪️Leverage: 1.5×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 6%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −0.88%
▪️Time Horizon: 6–12 months

I’m taking a long position in Roku because I think the market is still treating the company primarily as a hardware and streaming-platform story.

I think that misses the more interesting part of the business.

The long-term opportunity is advertising and the value of Roku's position as an operating layer between viewers, content and advertisers.

Streaming continues to move away from traditional television, but the economics of that transition are still developing. Roku has one of the most recognizable positions in the US connected-TV ecosystem, and I believe the market can eventually place a higher value on that distribution.

The important point for me is that Roku doesn't need to become the dominant streaming service.

It needs to become increasingly valuable as the infrastructure through which streaming television is consumed.

At $84.42, I'm willing to take the risk because the upside to $120 is substantial relative to the defined downside.

The market is still skeptical about Roku's ability to translate audience growth into consistently attractive economics.

That's precisely what makes the setup interesting.
If advertising conditions improve and Roku continues increasing monetization of its platform, I think the market can re-rate the stock significantly.

My invalidation level is $72.

A break below that level would tell me that either the fundamental setup has deteriorated or the market is assigning substantially less value to the platform than I expect.

I don't want to rationalize a losing position simply because I like the long-term story.

▪️Bull case: Advertising recovery, stronger platform monetization and improving profitability.
▪️Base case: Roku continues growing its platform while gradually improving economics.
▪️Bear case: Weak advertising demand, increasing competition or continued difficulty converting scale into earnings.

Roku is not a stock I would buy because it looks “safe.”

It isn't.

That's actually part of the attraction.

The interesting investments are often the ones where the market is already aware of the problems, but the upside from solving those problems is still being underpriced.

For me, this is a bet on monetization rather than subscribers.

If Roku can turn its distribution into better economics, I think $120 is achievable without requiring an unrealistic outcome.

▪️Entry: $594.97
▪️Stop Loss: $555.00
▪️Take Profit: $650.00
▪️Price Target: $650.00
▪️Expected Return: +9.25%
▪️Risk: −6.72%
▪️Risk / Reward: 1.38 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 8%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −1.07%
▪️Time Horizon: 1–3 months

I’m buying Meta here because the market continues to underestimate how effectively the company has converted its enormous user base into an increasingly sophisticated advertising machine.

The AI investment story is important, but I don't view this as an AI trade in isolation.

Meta already has the distribution, data and advertising infrastructure.

AI is being layered onto an existing business that is already capable of generating enormous cash flow.

That distinction matters.

The company doesn't need AI to create a business from zero. It needs AI to make an already massive business more efficient and more valuable.

At $594.97, I'm looking for a relatively straightforward continuation trade toward $650.

I'm not trying to make a five-year valuation call here.
This is a tactical position based on the combination of strong fundamentals, advertising resilience and continued AI-driven improvements to recommendation and monetization.

My stop is $555.

The downside is therefore defined at approximately 6.7%, while my initial upside is approximately 9.25%.

This is not an asymmetric home-run setup, which is why I'm keeping the position size controlled.

Meta is interesting because the market often focuses on what the company is spending on AI.

I pay more attention to what that spending is producing.

If AI improves recommendation quality, engagement and advertising efficiency, the return on that infrastructure investment can be much larger than the initial cost suggests.

That's the part of the story I want exposure to.

▪️Entry: $179.01
▪️Stop Loss: $164.00
▪️Take Profit: $188.00
▪️Price Target: $188.00
▪️Expected Return: +5.02%
▪️Risk: −8.39%
▪️Risk / Reward: 0.60 : 1
▪️Leverage: 1.5×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 4%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −0.50%
▪️Time Horizon: 2–6 weeks

This is a very different trade from my earlier PLTR position.

I'm not buying Palantir here because I suddenly believe the company is worth dramatically more than I did three months ago.

I'm trading momentum and near-term price action around a company where the underlying fundamental narrative remains strong.

At $179, valuation risk is significant.

That's why this is a smaller tactical position with a short time horizon.

I'm looking for the stock to push through $188 as momentum remains intact rather than making a new long-term valuation call.

When a stock has strong institutional momentum, fighting the trend without a clear catalyst can be expensive.

I'm willing to participate in the trend, but only with a small position.

The trade has a clearly defined exit.

If the momentum breaks and PLTR trades below $164, I'm out.

▪️Bull case: Continued momentum and additional confirmation of commercial AI adoption.
▪️Base case: Consolidation followed by another attempt at higher levels.
▪️Bear case: Valuation concerns trigger profit-taking and momentum reverses.

This is probably the least “comfortable” trade on my board.

I don't love buying an expensive stock after a major run.
But investing isn't about finding trades that feel comfortable.

It's about knowing exactly why you're entering and where you will leave.

I'm not marrying this position.

If PLTR reaches $188, I take the profit.

If the thesis breaks, I take the loss.

Simple.

▪️Entry: $465.58
▪️Stop Loss: $480.00
▪️Take Profit: $450.00
▪️Price Target: $450.00
▪️Expected Return: +3.35%
▪️Risk: −3.10%
▪️Risk / Reward: 1.08 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 4%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −0.62%
▪️Time Horizon: 1–3 weeks

I'm taking a short-term short position in AMD after an exceptionally strong run.

This isn't a bearish call on AMD's long-term business.
The opposite is true: AMD remains one of the most interesting semiconductor companies in the market.
The trade is about price versus expectations.

At $465.58, the stock has already priced in a significant amount of optimism. When momentum becomes this strong, the risk/reward can temporarily shift even if the underlying fundamentals remain attractive.

I'm looking for a relatively small retracement rather than a fundamental breakdown.

The setup is deliberately tactical.

I'm not looking for AMD to collapse. I only need a move back toward $450 to close the trade.

That gives me approximately 3.35% downside in the stock with a defined stop at $480.

The position is small because I'm fully aware of the risk of shorting a high-momentum semiconductor stock.

The stop is $480.

If AMD continues accelerating through that level, I don't want to fight the momentum.

This is particularly important with semiconductor names: once a stock enters a strong momentum regime, trying to pick the exact top can become an expensive exercise.
The trade is therefore strictly tactical.

▪️Bull case: AMD continues its momentum and breaks higher through $480.
▪️Base case: Short-term profit-taking pushes the stock toward $450.
▪️Bear case: A broader semiconductor selloff accelerates the decline below my target.

This is one of those trades where I don't need to be right about the company.

I only need to be right about the next move.

AMD can be an excellent long-term investment and still be temporarily overextended.

That's the distinction I'm trading.

I'm not trying to call the top.

I'm simply taking the other side of an unusually strong move with a very clearly defined exit.

▪️Entry: $158.78
▪️Stop Loss: $168.00
▪️Take Profit: $150.00
▪️Price Target: $150.00
▪️Expected Return: +5.53%
▪️Risk: −5.81%
▪️Risk / Reward: 0.95 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 5%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −0.58%
▪️Time Horizon: 1–4 weeks

I'm short Oracle here because I think the market is getting increasingly aggressive in pricing the company's AI and cloud opportunity.

Oracle is clearly benefiting from the AI infrastructure cycle.

The question is not whether demand exists.

The question is how much of that future growth is already reflected in the stock price.

After a major repricing, even strong fundamentals can become insufficient to support the current multiple.

I'm looking for a valuation and sentiment reset rather than a deterioration of Oracle's underlying business.

At $158.78, I think the stock has relatively little room for disappointment.

My target is $150, which is only a modest retracement.
The trade therefore doesn't require a disastrous earnings report or an AI spending collapse.

A simple shift from extreme optimism toward more balanced expectations could be enough.

My stop is $168.

If Oracle breaks above that level, the market is telling me that the bullish momentum is stronger than I anticipated.
I will not average into the short.

The position is deliberately sized at 5% of the portfolio because this is an expectations trade, not a conviction that Oracle's business is fundamentally broken.

▪️Bull case: Continued AI infrastructure enthusiasm and accelerating cloud expectations push ORCL through $168.
▪️Base case: Sentiment cools and the stock retraces toward $150.
▪️Bear case: A broader tech selloff causes the stock to overshoot the target to the downside.

Oracle is a good example of why I separate company quality from stock price.

I can believe Oracle will become a much larger AI infrastructure business and still think the stock needs to breathe after a major move.

That's the position I'm taking here.

I'm not betting against Oracle's future.

I'm betting that the market has moved faster than the fundamentals.

Sometimes the best short isn't a bad company.

It's a good company where expectations have temporarily become too good.

▪️Entry: $150.28
▪️Stop Loss: $158.00
▪️Take Profit: $145.00
▪️Price Target: $145.00
▪️Expected Return: +3.65%
▪️Risk: −5.13%
▪️Risk / Reward: 0.71 : 1
▪️Leverage: 2×
▪️Portfolio Allocation: 4%
▪️Portfolio Risk: −0.41%
▪️Time Horizon: 1–2 weeks

I'm staying short Oracle.

The first part of the trade has already played out, with ORCL moving materially lower from the levels where I originally became bearish.

But I'm not holding the same position indefinitely just because the first thesis worked.

This is a new tactical setup.

At $150.28, I think the stock still has room to retrace toward $145 as investors reassess the pace at which Oracle's AI infrastructure ambitions can translate into sustainable financial results.

The important question at this point is no longer whether Oracle has an AI opportunity.

It clearly does.

The question is whether the current valuation can continue to absorb the enormous expectations attached to that opportunity.

After the initial decline, I think there is still potential for another leg lower before the market establishes a more convincing floor.

My target is deliberately conservative: $145.

I'm not expecting a collapse.

The stop is $158.

If ORCL recovers that level, I will close the trade.
I don't want to turn a short-term tactical position into a permanent bearish thesis.

This is a trade with a defined target and defined invalidation.

▪️Bull case: Strong AI demand and renewed institutional buying push ORCL back above $158.
▪️Base case: Continued profit-taking takes the stock toward $145.
▪️Bear case: Broader weakness in high-growth technology stocks creates a much deeper decline.

There is something I like about trading a stock after the market has already started questioning the narrative.

You don't need everyone to become bearish.

You just need the marginal buyer to become less aggressive.

That's what I'm watching here.

Oracle remains a company with significant long-term potential. My position doesn't require me to disagree with that.

I'm simply saying that great long-term stories can still experience very normal periods of multiple compression.

For this trade, $145 is where I want to take the money off the table.