While the majority of Iran’s seaborne oil exports depend on Hormuz, a complete halt is unlikely. Alternative infrastructure such as the Jask Oil Terminal and limited use of the Chabahar Port would allow partial continuation of exports, though not enough to offset full losses.
Overall, any sustained disruption would sharply reduce foreign currency inflows, weaken trade capacity, and intensify pressure on Iran’s already constrained economy—without fully shutting it down.

This mission, described as entirely defensive and independent of the involved parties, will lead to a conference with countries willing to participate. However, the British Prime Minister expressed refusal to join the naval blockade declared by the United States against ships linked to Iran. Macron also emphasized the necessity of reaching a sustainable resolution to regional disputes, including the Iranian nuclear issue and the stability of Lebanon.