Jan 22, 2026
“TACO Trade” Returns as Risk Assets Rebound in Sync
Summary
• Macroeconomy: Trump stated he has no intention of acquiring Greenland through military means and said a framework agreement on Greenland has been reached with NATO, with no related tariffs to be imposed. The “TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade” re-emerged, quickly restoring risk appetite. All three major U.S. equity indices rebounded and largely recouped the prior session’s losses, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index hit a new all-time high.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin moved closely in line with U.S. equities, staging a V-shaped rebound driven by the “TACO trade.” It closed up 1.16% on the day, ending a six-session losing streak. Altcoins followed with a modest rebound, while overall market-cap dominance remained stable, indicating that risk appetite has yet to meaningfully rotate into higher-volatility assets.
• Project Updates
◦ Hot tokens: GWEI, ROSE, SKR
◦ SKR: Solana Mobile airdropped its SKR token, which surged 230%, with market capitalization surpassing $150m
◦ GWEI: ETHGas completed its community airdrop; GWEI rose 90%, with market cap stabilizing around $50m
◦ AXS: Closed up 23%, leading gains among the top 100 tokens; Korean trading volume surged, accounting for over 40%
◦ KTA: Payments-focused public chain Keeta reached an agreement to acquire a bank, allocating 35 million KTA to support the acquisition process
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 20 (24 one day ago), Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• U.S. November Core PCE data
• Immunefi to launch its platform token IMU on January 22
Macroeconomy
• Trump reiterated that he does not intend to use military force regarding Greenland
• Trump: A framework agreement on Greenland has been formed; related tariffs will not take effect
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Not concerned about any U.S. Treasury sell-off triggered by the Greenland issue
• Trump: Will soon announce a new Fed Chair nominee, but expressed concern about potential “disloyalty” after appointment
Policy Direction
• U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee to release the latest draft of the crypto market structure bill
• David Sacks: Once the market structure bill passes, banks will fully enter the crypto sector
• Trump: Hopes to sign crypto legislation as soon as possible and ensure the U.S. remains the world’s crypto capital
• Vietnam has begun piloting a formal licensing regime for crypto asset trading platforms
Industry Highlights
• Bloomberg: Wall Street institutions are exiting Bitcoin arbitrage trades
• Galaxy plans to launch a $100m hedge fund in Q1, targeting profits from digital asset price volatility
• Vitalik: 2026 will mark a full return to decentralized social networks
• Strive to issue $150m in preferred shares to purchase more Bitcoin
• Neynar acquires and takes over Farcaster, with protocol and application assets transferred in full
• Ondo Global Markets announces expansion to Solana, bringing 200+ tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs into the Solana ecosystem
“TACO Trade” Returns as Risk Assets Rebound in Sync
Summary
• Macroeconomy: Trump stated he has no intention of acquiring Greenland through military means and said a framework agreement on Greenland has been reached with NATO, with no related tariffs to be imposed. The “TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade” re-emerged, quickly restoring risk appetite. All three major U.S. equity indices rebounded and largely recouped the prior session’s losses, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index hit a new all-time high.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin moved closely in line with U.S. equities, staging a V-shaped rebound driven by the “TACO trade.” It closed up 1.16% on the day, ending a six-session losing streak. Altcoins followed with a modest rebound, while overall market-cap dominance remained stable, indicating that risk appetite has yet to meaningfully rotate into higher-volatility assets.
• Project Updates
◦ Hot tokens: GWEI, ROSE, SKR
◦ SKR: Solana Mobile airdropped its SKR token, which surged 230%, with market capitalization surpassing $150m
◦ GWEI: ETHGas completed its community airdrop; GWEI rose 90%, with market cap stabilizing around $50m
◦ AXS: Closed up 23%, leading gains among the top 100 tokens; Korean trading volume surged, accounting for over 40%
◦ KTA: Payments-focused public chain Keeta reached an agreement to acquire a bank, allocating 35 million KTA to support the acquisition process
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 20 (24 one day ago), Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• U.S. November Core PCE data
• Immunefi to launch its platform token IMU on January 22
Macroeconomy
• Trump reiterated that he does not intend to use military force regarding Greenland
• Trump: A framework agreement on Greenland has been formed; related tariffs will not take effect
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Not concerned about any U.S. Treasury sell-off triggered by the Greenland issue
• Trump: Will soon announce a new Fed Chair nominee, but expressed concern about potential “disloyalty” after appointment
Policy Direction
• U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee to release the latest draft of the crypto market structure bill
• David Sacks: Once the market structure bill passes, banks will fully enter the crypto sector
• Trump: Hopes to sign crypto legislation as soon as possible and ensure the U.S. remains the world’s crypto capital
• Vietnam has begun piloting a formal licensing regime for crypto asset trading platforms
Industry Highlights
• Bloomberg: Wall Street institutions are exiting Bitcoin arbitrage trades
• Galaxy plans to launch a $100m hedge fund in Q1, targeting profits from digital asset price volatility
• Vitalik: 2026 will mark a full return to decentralized social networks
• Strive to issue $150m in preferred shares to purchase more Bitcoin
• Neynar acquires and takes over Farcaster, with protocol and application assets transferred in full
• Ondo Global Markets announces expansion to Solana, bringing 200+ tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs into the Solana ecosystem
Jan 23, 2026
Macro Risks Ease Gradually, Crypto Assets Stabilize
Summary
• Macroeconomy: U.S. data continue to point to solid economic momentum and stable inflation. Together with fading concerns over geopolitical tensions, market risk appetite has rebounded. Major U.S. equity indices have closed higher for two consecutive sessions, while small-cap stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 for the 15th straight trading day, setting fresh highs—signaling a further extension of risk appetite toward higher-beta assets. Meanwhile, gold has maintained its strong uptrend, repeatedly hitting record highs and approaching the USD 5,000 level.
• Crypto Market: As macro uncertainty gradually recedes, Bitcoin has moved largely in lockstep with Nasdaq futures, posting a marginal daily gain of 0.12%. While prices have temporarily stabilized, altcoins remain broadly weak. Market sentiment is still stuck in the “extreme fear” zone, with risk appetite cautious and any meaningful recovery likely to depend on time or new positive catalysts.
• Project Updates
◦ Trending Tokens: TROLL, RIVER, ELSA
◦ XAUT / PAXG: Gold broke above USD 4,950, extending to new all-time highs
◦ ELSA: Upbit listed ELSA in KRW, BTC, and USDT pairs; ELSA surged 35% on the day
◦ RIVER: RIVER rose 30% on a short squeeze; funding rates have remained negative for three consecutive days, with the 24-hour average funding rate dipping to as low as -1.8%
◦ SKR: With multiple mentions of Seeker by the Solana founder and continued listings on additional exchanges, SKR’s market capitalization briefly exceeded USD 500 million
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 24 (vs. 20 twenty-four hours earlier), still classified as Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (preliminary)
• U.S. January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final)
• U.S. January 1-year inflation expectations (final)
• SOON: Token unlock of 5.63% of circulating supply (~USD 7.4 million)
• ANIME: Token unlock of 13.84% of circulating supply (~USD 6.3 million)
Macroeconomy
• U.S. November PCE price index rose 2.8% YoY, in line with expectations
• U.S. Q3 real GDP (final) was revised slightly higher to 4.4% QoQ, the fastest pace in two years; core PCE inflation held at 2.9%
• Trump: A 25% tariff on countries engaged in (trade) dealings with Iran will take effect soon
• The U.S. House of Representatives passed the fiscal-year appropriations bill, further reducing the risk of a government shutdown
Policy Direction
• The latest crypto market structure bill from the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee failed to reach an agreement with Democrats
• Kansas proposed a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill
• The U.S. SEC and CFTC will jointly advance regulatory coordination on crypto, in line with Trump’s pro-crypto stance
• The Netherlands plans to introduce an “unrealized capital gains tax” on assets such as cryptocurrencies by 2028, with rates potentially as high as 36%
Industry Highlights
• KuCoin reached an investment intention agreement with Jinjun Services, planning to jointly promote an integrated gold industry platform in collaboration with the Hong Kong Gold Exchange.
• KuCoin co-hosted the 2026 World Laureates Forum, advancing the integration of digital infrastructure with AI–blockchain technologies.
• X (formerly Twitter) added a dedicated meme category to its “Global Trends” page
• Nomura-backed Laser Digital launched a tokenized Bitcoin yield fund
• BitGo, a crypto asset custody firm, completed the first crypto IPO of 2026, listing on the NYSE
• Bitwise launched the Bitwise Proficio Currency Debasement ETF, covering gold, Bitcoin, silver, other precious metals, and mining equities
• SpaceX has reached agreements with four banks in preparation for a potential “mega IPO”
• Major South Korean banks are accelerating alliances ahead of stablecoin legislation, positioning for KRW-denominated stablecoin issuance
Macro Risks Ease Gradually, Crypto Assets Stabilize
Summary
• Macroeconomy: U.S. data continue to point to solid economic momentum and stable inflation. Together with fading concerns over geopolitical tensions, market risk appetite has rebounded. Major U.S. equity indices have closed higher for two consecutive sessions, while small-cap stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 for the 15th straight trading day, setting fresh highs—signaling a further extension of risk appetite toward higher-beta assets. Meanwhile, gold has maintained its strong uptrend, repeatedly hitting record highs and approaching the USD 5,000 level.
• Crypto Market: As macro uncertainty gradually recedes, Bitcoin has moved largely in lockstep with Nasdaq futures, posting a marginal daily gain of 0.12%. While prices have temporarily stabilized, altcoins remain broadly weak. Market sentiment is still stuck in the “extreme fear” zone, with risk appetite cautious and any meaningful recovery likely to depend on time or new positive catalysts.
• Project Updates
◦ Trending Tokens: TROLL, RIVER, ELSA
◦ XAUT / PAXG: Gold broke above USD 4,950, extending to new all-time highs
◦ ELSA: Upbit listed ELSA in KRW, BTC, and USDT pairs; ELSA surged 35% on the day
◦ RIVER: RIVER rose 30% on a short squeeze; funding rates have remained negative for three consecutive days, with the 24-hour average funding rate dipping to as low as -1.8%
◦ SKR: With multiple mentions of Seeker by the Solana founder and continued listings on additional exchanges, SKR’s market capitalization briefly exceeded USD 500 million
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 24 (vs. 20 twenty-four hours earlier), still classified as Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (preliminary)
• U.S. January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final)
• U.S. January 1-year inflation expectations (final)
• SOON: Token unlock of 5.63% of circulating supply (~USD 7.4 million)
• ANIME: Token unlock of 13.84% of circulating supply (~USD 6.3 million)
Macroeconomy
• U.S. November PCE price index rose 2.8% YoY, in line with expectations
• U.S. Q3 real GDP (final) was revised slightly higher to 4.4% QoQ, the fastest pace in two years; core PCE inflation held at 2.9%
• Trump: A 25% tariff on countries engaged in (trade) dealings with Iran will take effect soon
• The U.S. House of Representatives passed the fiscal-year appropriations bill, further reducing the risk of a government shutdown
Policy Direction
• The latest crypto market structure bill from the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee failed to reach an agreement with Democrats
• Kansas proposed a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill
• The U.S. SEC and CFTC will jointly advance regulatory coordination on crypto, in line with Trump’s pro-crypto stance
• The Netherlands plans to introduce an “unrealized capital gains tax” on assets such as cryptocurrencies by 2028, with rates potentially as high as 36%
Industry Highlights
• KuCoin reached an investment intention agreement with Jinjun Services, planning to jointly promote an integrated gold industry platform in collaboration with the Hong Kong Gold Exchange.
• KuCoin co-hosted the 2026 World Laureates Forum, advancing the integration of digital infrastructure with AI–blockchain technologies.
• X (formerly Twitter) added a dedicated meme category to its “Global Trends” page
• Nomura-backed Laser Digital launched a tokenized Bitcoin yield fund
• BitGo, a crypto asset custody firm, completed the first crypto IPO of 2026, listing on the NYSE
• Bitwise launched the Bitwise Proficio Currency Debasement ETF, covering gold, Bitcoin, silver, other precious metals, and mining equities
• SpaceX has reached agreements with four banks in preparation for a potential “mega IPO”
• Major South Korean banks are accelerating alliances ahead of stablecoin legislation, positioning for KRW-denominated stablecoin issuance
2026.1.27
Yen Stabilization Eases Panic as Risk Assets Rebound, While Crypto Remains Range-Bound
Summary
• Macro Economy: USD/JPY stabilized around the 153 level, effectively easing market panic triggered by earlier FX volatility during the Asian session. At the same time, U.S. durable goods orders posted their largest month-over-month increase in nearly six months, signaling resilient economic fundamentals and lifting risk appetite across U.S. equities, with all three major indices closing higher. Precious metals remained strong: gold briefly broke above the $5,000/oz threshold for the first time intraday, silver surged as much as 14% at its peak, and LME copper rose for a second consecutive session, approaching record highs. However, gains were partially retraced as risk sentiment cooled.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin moved largely in tandem with U.S. equity index futures, rebounding above $88,000 but remaining confined within a consolidation range. Bitcoin dominance stayed broadly stable, while altcoins showed muted performance, indicating no clear expansion in risk appetite toward higher-beta assets. Although prices saw a modest recovery, market sentiment improved only from “Extreme Fear” to “Fear.” The lack of fresh catalysts continues to cap upside momentum. In addition, the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee postponed its hearing on the crypto market structure bill to January 29 due to weather-related disruptions, further extending the consolidation phase.
• Project Updates
◦ Hot Tokens: WHITEWHALE, RIVER, AXS
◦ MORPHO: Bitwise launched its first on-chain vault strategy via Morpho.
◦ HYPER: Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest climbed to approximately $790 million, marking a new all-time high.
◦ RIVER: A single entity reportedly controls 2,418 addresses, with highly concentrated token holdings. Average funding rates again touched -1.8%, suggesting potential price manipulation via short-term liquidations.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 29 (vs. 20 24 hours ago), level: Fear
Today’s Outlook
• SEC and CFTC to host a joint “regulatory coordination” event focused on crypto
• U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee rescheduled its crypto market structure bill hearing to January 29
Macro Economy
• U.S. November durable goods orders rose 5.3% MoM, the largest increase in nearly six months
• Trump: Raising reciprocal tariffs on South Korea from 15% to 25%
• OPEC+ delegates: Production increases may remain paused in March; oil supply largely unaffected by geopolitical risks
• Prediction markets indicate the probability of a new U.S. government shutdown is approaching 80%
Policy Direction
• Japan may approve spot crypto ETFs as early as 2028
• U.S. SEC to withdraw its 2023 lawsuit against Gemini Trust Co.
• U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee plans to revisit the crypto market structure bill at 10:30 a.m. local time later this week
Industry Highlights
• Strategy spent $264.1 million last week to acquire 2,932 BTC at an average price of ~$90,061
• BitMine increased its ETH holdings by ~40,300 ETH last week, bringing total holdings above 4.24 million ETH; total ETH staked surpassed 2 million
• South Korea’s third-largest crypto exchange, Coinone, is seeking to sell part of its equity stake
• Bitwise launched its first on-chain vault strategy via Morpho
Yen Stabilization Eases Panic as Risk Assets Rebound, While Crypto Remains Range-Bound
Summary
• Macro Economy: USD/JPY stabilized around the 153 level, effectively easing market panic triggered by earlier FX volatility during the Asian session. At the same time, U.S. durable goods orders posted their largest month-over-month increase in nearly six months, signaling resilient economic fundamentals and lifting risk appetite across U.S. equities, with all three major indices closing higher. Precious metals remained strong: gold briefly broke above the $5,000/oz threshold for the first time intraday, silver surged as much as 14% at its peak, and LME copper rose for a second consecutive session, approaching record highs. However, gains were partially retraced as risk sentiment cooled.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin moved largely in tandem with U.S. equity index futures, rebounding above $88,000 but remaining confined within a consolidation range. Bitcoin dominance stayed broadly stable, while altcoins showed muted performance, indicating no clear expansion in risk appetite toward higher-beta assets. Although prices saw a modest recovery, market sentiment improved only from “Extreme Fear” to “Fear.” The lack of fresh catalysts continues to cap upside momentum. In addition, the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee postponed its hearing on the crypto market structure bill to January 29 due to weather-related disruptions, further extending the consolidation phase.
• Project Updates
◦ Hot Tokens: WHITEWHALE, RIVER, AXS
◦ MORPHO: Bitwise launched its first on-chain vault strategy via Morpho.
◦ HYPER: Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest climbed to approximately $790 million, marking a new all-time high.
◦ RIVER: A single entity reportedly controls 2,418 addresses, with highly concentrated token holdings. Average funding rates again touched -1.8%, suggesting potential price manipulation via short-term liquidations.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 29 (vs. 20 24 hours ago), level: Fear
Today’s Outlook
• SEC and CFTC to host a joint “regulatory coordination” event focused on crypto
• U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee rescheduled its crypto market structure bill hearing to January 29
Macro Economy
• U.S. November durable goods orders rose 5.3% MoM, the largest increase in nearly six months
• Trump: Raising reciprocal tariffs on South Korea from 15% to 25%
• OPEC+ delegates: Production increases may remain paused in March; oil supply largely unaffected by geopolitical risks
• Prediction markets indicate the probability of a new U.S. government shutdown is approaching 80%
Policy Direction
• Japan may approve spot crypto ETFs as early as 2028
• U.S. SEC to withdraw its 2023 lawsuit against Gemini Trust Co.
• U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee plans to revisit the crypto market structure bill at 10:30 a.m. local time later this week
Industry Highlights
• Strategy spent $264.1 million last week to acquire 2,932 BTC at an average price of ~$90,061
• BitMine increased its ETH holdings by ~40,300 ETH last week, bringing total holdings above 4.24 million ETH; total ETH staked surpassed 2 million
• South Korea’s third-largest crypto exchange, Coinone, is seeking to sell part of its equity stake
• Bitwise launched its first on-chain vault strategy via Morpho
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Jan 28, 2026
Dollar Weakens, Gold Hits New Highs, BTC Rebounds to 89k
Summary
• Macro Economy:Rising macro uncertainty and Trump’s remarks on the US dollar pushed the Dollar Index (DXY) below 96. US equities showed divergence: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.41% and 0.91%, while the Dow fell 0.83%. US consumer confidence came in below expectations, and Treasury yields dipped to intraday lows. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported a rebound in crude oil. Gold marked its sixth consecutive day of record highs, breaking above $5,200/oz for the first time.
• Crypto Market:BTC dipped to $86,000 before rebounding slightly toward $89,000. Overall sentiment remains in the “Fear” zone. Altcoins were relatively muted, with no clear expansion in risk appetite. The $85,000 level has become a key battleground after multiple retests, holding as support so far. The market remains in a consolidation phase, with bulls and bears locked in stalemate awaiting a directional break.
• Project Updates:
◦ Trending Tokens: XAUT/PAXG, HYPE, PENGUIN, PUMP
◦ XAUT/PAXG: Gold continues making new highs above $5,200/oz
◦ HYPE: HIP-3 trading volume reached a new record; HYPE surged over 25% in a single day
◦ PENGUIN: Solana co-founder changed their X profile picture to a penguin-themed concept image, triggering a short-term token rally
◦ PUMP: Meme token sentiment on Solana has recovered; Pump.fun protocol revenue surpassed Hyperliquid over the past 24 hours
◦ BIRB: NFT project Moonbirds released the BIRB tokenomics model
◦ COPPERINU: Echo.xyz founder Cobie posted about “Copper Inu” on X, driving a rise in the similarly named token
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 29 (unchanged from 24 hours ago) — Level: Fear
Today’s Watchlist
• Federal Reserve FOMC meeting
• Fed Chair to hold a monetary policy press conference
• US Treasury: Trump to attend the Trump Account Summit
• Google to remove unregistered overseas crypto exchange apps from the Korean app store starting Jan 28
• Optimism token buyback proposal vote ends on Jan 28
• SIGN unlock: 17.68% of circulating supply (~$12.2M)
• JUP unlock: 1.70% of circulating supply (~$10.6M)
Macro Economy
• South Korea’s special envoy will visit the US to discuss trade agreement implementation; Trump announced higher tariffs on Korea this morning
• Dollar Index DXY fell below 96, now at 95.886, the lowest since Feb 2022
Policy Direction
• South Korea is considering allowing domestic institutions to issue virtual assets; stablecoins remain controversial
• Japan plans to classify XRP as a regulated financial product before Q2 2026
• US senators agreed to withdraw the credit card swipe-fee amendment to avoid jeopardizing the CLARITY Act review
• Australia listed regulatory gaps in crypto oversight as a key risk for 2026
• Arizona draft bill proposes exempting “virtual currency” from property tax
Dollar Weakens, Gold Hits New Highs, BTC Rebounds to 89k
Summary
• Macro Economy:Rising macro uncertainty and Trump’s remarks on the US dollar pushed the Dollar Index (DXY) below 96. US equities showed divergence: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.41% and 0.91%, while the Dow fell 0.83%. US consumer confidence came in below expectations, and Treasury yields dipped to intraday lows. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported a rebound in crude oil. Gold marked its sixth consecutive day of record highs, breaking above $5,200/oz for the first time.
• Crypto Market:BTC dipped to $86,000 before rebounding slightly toward $89,000. Overall sentiment remains in the “Fear” zone. Altcoins were relatively muted, with no clear expansion in risk appetite. The $85,000 level has become a key battleground after multiple retests, holding as support so far. The market remains in a consolidation phase, with bulls and bears locked in stalemate awaiting a directional break.
• Project Updates:
◦ Trending Tokens: XAUT/PAXG, HYPE, PENGUIN, PUMP
◦ XAUT/PAXG: Gold continues making new highs above $5,200/oz
◦ HYPE: HIP-3 trading volume reached a new record; HYPE surged over 25% in a single day
◦ PENGUIN: Solana co-founder changed their X profile picture to a penguin-themed concept image, triggering a short-term token rally
◦ PUMP: Meme token sentiment on Solana has recovered; Pump.fun protocol revenue surpassed Hyperliquid over the past 24 hours
◦ BIRB: NFT project Moonbirds released the BIRB tokenomics model
◦ COPPERINU: Echo.xyz founder Cobie posted about “Copper Inu” on X, driving a rise in the similarly named token
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 29 (unchanged from 24 hours ago) — Level: Fear
Today’s Watchlist
• Federal Reserve FOMC meeting
• Fed Chair to hold a monetary policy press conference
• US Treasury: Trump to attend the Trump Account Summit
• Google to remove unregistered overseas crypto exchange apps from the Korean app store starting Jan 28
• Optimism token buyback proposal vote ends on Jan 28
• SIGN unlock: 17.68% of circulating supply (~$12.2M)
• JUP unlock: 1.70% of circulating supply (~$10.6M)
Macro Economy
• South Korea’s special envoy will visit the US to discuss trade agreement implementation; Trump announced higher tariffs on Korea this morning
• Dollar Index DXY fell below 96, now at 95.886, the lowest since Feb 2022
Policy Direction
• South Korea is considering allowing domestic institutions to issue virtual assets; stablecoins remain controversial
• Japan plans to classify XRP as a regulated financial product before Q2 2026
• US senators agreed to withdraw the credit card swipe-fee amendment to avoid jeopardizing the CLARITY Act review
• Australia listed regulatory gaps in crypto oversight as a key risk for 2026
• Arizona draft bill proposes exempting “virtual currency” from property tax
Jan 30, 2026
U.S. Equities and Precious Metals Plunge from Highs, Crypto Market Sees Panic Sell-Off
Summary
• Macro Economy:U.S. equities have entered a clear downward phase, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq seeing sharp pullbacks. Rising macro uncertainty, shifts in monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical risks have jointly amplified market volatility. Microsoft at one point plunged 12%, marking its largest single-day decline since the pandemic, wiping out roughly USD 430 billion in market capitalization. Precious metals also saw violent corrections from elevated levels: gold fell nearly 9% intraday after approaching a record high near USD 5,600, while silver dropped more than 12% after briefly hitting a new high of USD 121.
• Crypto Market:The crypto market came under broad pressure, with Bitcoin falling more than 5% in a single day and major assets such as Ethereum generally dropping over 6%. Amid continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC briefly slid to its lowest level since last November, triggering concentrated sell-offs and prompting some crypto institutions to begin adjusting their asset allocations. This downturn was primarily sparked by a sharp, simultaneous sell-off in U.S. equities and gold during the early U.S. session, with risk-off sentiment quickly spilling over into the crypto market. Market sentiment has now entered the extreme fear zone, with altcoins seeing even steeper losses and overall liquidity tightening noticeably.
• Project Updates
◦ Trending Tokens: PIGGY, BP, WLD, SENT
◦ PIGGY: After being delisted following a sharp crash on Dec 5 due to a suspected token hack, PIGGY was relisted on Binance Alpha on Jan 29, surging approximately 750% within one hour.
◦ BP: Kevin Gill, brother of well-known trader Keith Gill, publicly confirmed that his pet dog is named “Puppy,” driving a sharp price rally.
◦ WLD: Rumors suggest OpenAI is evaluating multiple “proof-of-personhood” solutions, including Worldcoin’s Orb iris-scanning device. In addition, World released World ID v4.0, introducing account abstraction and multi-key support. WLD posted a peak gain of nearly 40% on the 29th.
◦ SENT: Listed on Upbit and Bithumb, rising over 60% on the day.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 16 (vs. 26 twenty-four hours earlier), classified as Extreme Fear
Today’s Watchlist
• U.S. December PPI data release
• Apple earnings report
Macro Economy
• Trump threatens to impose a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft
• U.S. President Trump: Will pursue bipartisan cooperation to avoid a government shutdown
• U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending Jan 24: 209,000 (vs. 205,000 expected)
• Trump declares a national emergency and imposes tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba
Policy Developments
• The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee advanced key CLARITY Act procedures in a 12–11 party-line vote, pending review by the Banking Committee
• The UAE Central Bank approved the country’s first USD-pegged stablecoin, USDU, issued by Universal Digital
• The UK government stated that banks should not deprive crypto clients of basic banking services
• The UK Financial Services Regulation Committee launched a regulatory inquiry into stablecoins
• The U.S. SEC released new guidance on tokenized securities, clarifying that tokenization does not alter the application of securities laws
• Russia will roll out a crypto regulatory framework in July, allowing retail investor participation
Industry Highlights
• Moonbirds airdrop claim site goes live alongside the launch of Nesting 2.0
• MetaPlanet to raise USD 137 million via share issuance and warrants to increase BTC holdings
• Fidelity to launch a GENIUS-compliant stablecoin, FIDD, on Ethereum
• AC’s new project Flying Tulip has raised a total of USD 225.5 million
• Lighter adjusts LLP access requirements, requiring LIT staking with gradual refunds of excess allocation
• Uniswap: Token auction feature to go live on the web app on Feb 2
• MegaETH: Public mainnet scheduled to launch on Feb 9
U.S. Equities and Precious Metals Plunge from Highs, Crypto Market Sees Panic Sell-Off
Summary
• Macro Economy:U.S. equities have entered a clear downward phase, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq seeing sharp pullbacks. Rising macro uncertainty, shifts in monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical risks have jointly amplified market volatility. Microsoft at one point plunged 12%, marking its largest single-day decline since the pandemic, wiping out roughly USD 430 billion in market capitalization. Precious metals also saw violent corrections from elevated levels: gold fell nearly 9% intraday after approaching a record high near USD 5,600, while silver dropped more than 12% after briefly hitting a new high of USD 121.
• Crypto Market:The crypto market came under broad pressure, with Bitcoin falling more than 5% in a single day and major assets such as Ethereum generally dropping over 6%. Amid continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC briefly slid to its lowest level since last November, triggering concentrated sell-offs and prompting some crypto institutions to begin adjusting their asset allocations. This downturn was primarily sparked by a sharp, simultaneous sell-off in U.S. equities and gold during the early U.S. session, with risk-off sentiment quickly spilling over into the crypto market. Market sentiment has now entered the extreme fear zone, with altcoins seeing even steeper losses and overall liquidity tightening noticeably.
• Project Updates
◦ Trending Tokens: PIGGY, BP, WLD, SENT
◦ PIGGY: After being delisted following a sharp crash on Dec 5 due to a suspected token hack, PIGGY was relisted on Binance Alpha on Jan 29, surging approximately 750% within one hour.
◦ BP: Kevin Gill, brother of well-known trader Keith Gill, publicly confirmed that his pet dog is named “Puppy,” driving a sharp price rally.
◦ WLD: Rumors suggest OpenAI is evaluating multiple “proof-of-personhood” solutions, including Worldcoin’s Orb iris-scanning device. In addition, World released World ID v4.0, introducing account abstraction and multi-key support. WLD posted a peak gain of nearly 40% on the 29th.
◦ SENT: Listed on Upbit and Bithumb, rising over 60% on the day.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 16 (vs. 26 twenty-four hours earlier), classified as Extreme Fear
Today’s Watchlist
• U.S. December PPI data release
• Apple earnings report
Macro Economy
• Trump threatens to impose a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft
• U.S. President Trump: Will pursue bipartisan cooperation to avoid a government shutdown
• U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending Jan 24: 209,000 (vs. 205,000 expected)
• Trump declares a national emergency and imposes tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba
Policy Developments
• The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee advanced key CLARITY Act procedures in a 12–11 party-line vote, pending review by the Banking Committee
• The UAE Central Bank approved the country’s first USD-pegged stablecoin, USDU, issued by Universal Digital
• The UK government stated that banks should not deprive crypto clients of basic banking services
• The UK Financial Services Regulation Committee launched a regulatory inquiry into stablecoins
• The U.S. SEC released new guidance on tokenized securities, clarifying that tokenization does not alter the application of securities laws
• Russia will roll out a crypto regulatory framework in July, allowing retail investor participation
Industry Highlights
• Moonbirds airdrop claim site goes live alongside the launch of Nesting 2.0
• MetaPlanet to raise USD 137 million via share issuance and warrants to increase BTC holdings
• Fidelity to launch a GENIUS-compliant stablecoin, FIDD, on Ethereum
• AC’s new project Flying Tulip has raised a total of USD 225.5 million
• Lighter adjusts LLP access requirements, requiring LIT staking with gradual refunds of excess allocation
• Uniswap: Token auction feature to go live on the web app on Feb 2
• MegaETH: Public mainnet scheduled to launch on Feb 9
2026.2.2
Multiple Uncertainties Weigh on Risk Assets as Crypto Sells Off on Heavy Weekend Volume
Summary
• Macro Economy: Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran are in talks and that negotiations over Greenland are nearing an agreement, easing geopolitical risks temporarily. However, the U.S. Senate passed a roughly $1.2 trillion government spending bill, while a brief government shutdown still appears unavoidable. At the same time, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, and December PPI data came in hotter than expected, further reinforcing hawkish expectations. These overlapping uncertainties pressured risk appetite, sending all three major U.S. equity indices lower. Precious metals were also hit by the “Warsh shock,” with gold falling below $4,700/oz.
• Crypto Market: Amid Middle East geopolitical volatility, U.S. government shutdown uncertainty, and increasingly cautious internal crypto sentiment, the crypto market saw a sharp, high-volume sell-off. Total market liquidations on Saturday hit the highest single-day level since the “10/11 crash,” with Bitcoin plunging intraday to $75.7k. Altcoins declined in tandem on surging volume, and market sentiment quickly deteriorated into extreme fear.
• Project Updates:
◦ Hot tokens: ZK, VIRTUAL, JUP
◦ ZK: zkSync released its 2026 roadmap, including Prividium integrating enterprise systems and workflows, and Airbender expanding application scenarios.
◦ VIRTUAL: Virtuals Protocol announced that OpenClaw will soon integrate ACP, with the initial version supporting “buyer mode” and x402 micropayment settlement.
◦ JUP: Jupiter launched “Jupiter Global,” integrated Polymarket, and announced that the GUM private beta is coming soon, with APIs supporting login, swaps, general deposits, cross-chain spot trading, and perpetuals.
◦ LUNC: An FTX creditor representative stated that the next round of distributions is expected on March 31.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 14 (unchanged from 24 hours ago), Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• The White House will convene banks and crypto firms to seek legislative compromise
• Uniswap to launch auction functionality on its web app
• Record date for Trump Media & Technology Group’s digital token plan
• Aster begins Phase 6 airdrop, allocating 0.8% of total supply
• Ethena (ENA) unlock of ~40.63 million tokens (~$5.7m)
Macro Economy
• U.S. President Trump: Kevin Warsh to serve as Fed Chair; Warsh reportedly implicated in the Epstein case
• U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a brief shutdown remains unavoidable; House Speaker Johnson said he is “confident” the government will resume operations by Tuesday
• U.S. December PPI m/m at 0.5% (vs. 0.2% expected); PPI y/y at 3.0% (vs. 2.7% expected)
• Fed’s Bostic: No need for rate cuts at present
• Trump said the U.S. and Iran are negotiating; an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader said a “negotiation framework” is taking shape; Trump also said Greenland talks are close to an agreement
Policy Direction
• U.S. Treasury sanctioned crypto exchanges Zedcex and Zedxion over Iran-related transactions
• A Tennessee state lawmaker proposed legislation to establish a “Tennessee Strategic Bitcoin Reserve”
• A U.S. judge ruled that a shareholder lawsuit alleging insider trading by Coinbase directors may proceed
• Hong Kong’s Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau plans to submit four virtual asset service provider regulatory bills within the year
• SEC Chair: The time is ripe to allow cryptocurrencies into 401(k) retirement accounts
Industry Highlights
• The WLS 2026 Mobius Forum, hosted by WLA and co-hosted by KuCoin, opened in Dubai
• Network-wide liquidations on January 31 reached $2.5615 billion, the highest single-day total since the “10/11 crash”
• Michael Saylor again released Bitcoin Tracker updates, potentially signaling another purchase disclosure next week
• Close associates of the Abu Dhabi royal family reportedly invested $500 million to acquire a 49% stake in the Trump family’s WLFI company
Multiple Uncertainties Weigh on Risk Assets as Crypto Sells Off on Heavy Weekend Volume
Summary
• Macro Economy: Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran are in talks and that negotiations over Greenland are nearing an agreement, easing geopolitical risks temporarily. However, the U.S. Senate passed a roughly $1.2 trillion government spending bill, while a brief government shutdown still appears unavoidable. At the same time, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, and December PPI data came in hotter than expected, further reinforcing hawkish expectations. These overlapping uncertainties pressured risk appetite, sending all three major U.S. equity indices lower. Precious metals were also hit by the “Warsh shock,” with gold falling below $4,700/oz.
• Crypto Market: Amid Middle East geopolitical volatility, U.S. government shutdown uncertainty, and increasingly cautious internal crypto sentiment, the crypto market saw a sharp, high-volume sell-off. Total market liquidations on Saturday hit the highest single-day level since the “10/11 crash,” with Bitcoin plunging intraday to $75.7k. Altcoins declined in tandem on surging volume, and market sentiment quickly deteriorated into extreme fear.
• Project Updates:
◦ Hot tokens: ZK, VIRTUAL, JUP
◦ ZK: zkSync released its 2026 roadmap, including Prividium integrating enterprise systems and workflows, and Airbender expanding application scenarios.
◦ VIRTUAL: Virtuals Protocol announced that OpenClaw will soon integrate ACP, with the initial version supporting “buyer mode” and x402 micropayment settlement.
◦ JUP: Jupiter launched “Jupiter Global,” integrated Polymarket, and announced that the GUM private beta is coming soon, with APIs supporting login, swaps, general deposits, cross-chain spot trading, and perpetuals.
◦ LUNC: An FTX creditor representative stated that the next round of distributions is expected on March 31.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 14 (unchanged from 24 hours ago), Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• The White House will convene banks and crypto firms to seek legislative compromise
• Uniswap to launch auction functionality on its web app
• Record date for Trump Media & Technology Group’s digital token plan
• Aster begins Phase 6 airdrop, allocating 0.8% of total supply
• Ethena (ENA) unlock of ~40.63 million tokens (~$5.7m)
Macro Economy
• U.S. President Trump: Kevin Warsh to serve as Fed Chair; Warsh reportedly implicated in the Epstein case
• U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a brief shutdown remains unavoidable; House Speaker Johnson said he is “confident” the government will resume operations by Tuesday
• U.S. December PPI m/m at 0.5% (vs. 0.2% expected); PPI y/y at 3.0% (vs. 2.7% expected)
• Fed’s Bostic: No need for rate cuts at present
• Trump said the U.S. and Iran are negotiating; an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader said a “negotiation framework” is taking shape; Trump also said Greenland talks are close to an agreement
Policy Direction
• U.S. Treasury sanctioned crypto exchanges Zedcex and Zedxion over Iran-related transactions
• A Tennessee state lawmaker proposed legislation to establish a “Tennessee Strategic Bitcoin Reserve”
• A U.S. judge ruled that a shareholder lawsuit alleging insider trading by Coinbase directors may proceed
• Hong Kong’s Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau plans to submit four virtual asset service provider regulatory bills within the year
• SEC Chair: The time is ripe to allow cryptocurrencies into 401(k) retirement accounts
Industry Highlights
• The WLS 2026 Mobius Forum, hosted by WLA and co-hosted by KuCoin, opened in Dubai
• Network-wide liquidations on January 31 reached $2.5615 billion, the highest single-day total since the “10/11 crash”
• Michael Saylor again released Bitcoin Tracker updates, potentially signaling another purchase disclosure next week
• Close associates of the Abu Dhabi royal family reportedly invested $500 million to acquire a 49% stake in the Trump family’s WLFI company
2026.2.3
US Stocks Resume Gains, Precious Metals Rebound; Bitcoin Swings Widely and Tests 79K
Summary
• Macroeconomy:
The US and India reached a trade agreement that reduces tariff barriers between the two sides, boosting market sentiment that had recently been repeatedly hit by geopolitical disruptions.
The US January ISM Manufacturing Index surged to 52.6, far exceeding expectations, reinforcing the resilience of the US economy.
Supported by multiple tailwinds, US equities regained upward momentum and kicked off February with a strong start, with all three major indices closing higher.
After a sharp sell-off, precious metals rebounded, with gold returning to $4,800/oz.
• Crypto Market:
Following a major pullback, the battle between bulls and bears intensified significantly. Bitcoin posted an intraday amplitude of 6.3%, reaching a session high of $79.4K.
Altcoin markets continued to see heavy volume, with trading activity hitting a new year-to-date high, maintaining around 60% of total market share.
Market sentiment recovered slightly from the weekend but remains stuck in the “Extreme Fear” zone.
• Project Updates
◦ Trending Tokens: HYPE, XRP, ZAMA
◦ HYPE: Hyperliquid announced that HyperCore will support outcome trading (HIP-4).
◦ XRP: Ripple obtained a “full EMI license” from Luxembourg’s CSSF, enabling expansion of blockchain payments and digital asset services across the EU.
◦ ZAMA: Coinbase, Binance, Bybit, HTX, Bitget, and others have rapidly listed spot and derivatives products, while disclosing staking and DPoS mechanisms.
◦ UNI: Uniswap launched an on-chain auction feature (CCA) on its web interface; Rainbow token RNBW will be auctioned via CCA.
◦ JUP: Jupiter is bringing Polymarket to Solana and secured a $35M strategic investment in JUP from ParaFi.
◦ CLANKER: Activity in the Base ecosystem remains strong, with Clanker generating over $8M in protocol fees last week, a record high.
◦ DEEP/WAL: Coinbase added DeepBook (DEEP) and Walrus (WAL) to its listing roadmap.
◦ Purch: Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire mentioned the Purch project on X, triggering a rapid market cap surge for the Solana-based token PURCH.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 17 (14 twenty-four hours ago) — Level: Extreme Fear
Today’s Watchlist
• 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will deliver remarks
• CoinList will launch the public sale of AC’s new project Flying Tulip (FT)
• US December JOLTs job openings data postponed due to the government shutdown
Macroeconomic Development
• Trump released positive tariff-related signals: US tariffs on India reduced to 18%
• US January ISM Manufacturing Index jumped to 52.6, the highest since February 2022
• Due to the partial US government shutdown, January employment data will not be released on schedule
• Fed’s Bostic: Inflation remains elevated; rate cuts are unlikely in 2026
Policy & Regulatory Signals
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March
• EU warned 12 member states for failing to implement crypto tax rules
• Bhutan’s sovereign wealth fund reduced holdings by another 26,535 ETH over the past 24 hours
Industry Headlines
• Trump on Abu Dhabi royal family’s $500M investment into WLFI: Unaware; matters handled by his son
• WSJ: Cboe plans to relaunch binary options trading to compete directly with prediction markets
• BitMine added 41,788 ETH last week; Tom Lee said weak sentiment still reflects the lingering shock from the 10/11 crash
• Strategy bought another 855 BTC at elevated levels, raising its average cost basis to $76,052
• CoinShares: Digital asset investment products saw $1.7B net outflows last week, turning year-to-date flows negative
• Ripple obtained Luxembourg CSSF’s full EMI license, enabling EU-wide expansion of blockchain payment and digital asset services
US Stocks Resume Gains, Precious Metals Rebound; Bitcoin Swings Widely and Tests 79K
Summary
• Macroeconomy:
The US and India reached a trade agreement that reduces tariff barriers between the two sides, boosting market sentiment that had recently been repeatedly hit by geopolitical disruptions.
The US January ISM Manufacturing Index surged to 52.6, far exceeding expectations, reinforcing the resilience of the US economy.
Supported by multiple tailwinds, US equities regained upward momentum and kicked off February with a strong start, with all three major indices closing higher.
After a sharp sell-off, precious metals rebounded, with gold returning to $4,800/oz.
• Crypto Market:
Following a major pullback, the battle between bulls and bears intensified significantly. Bitcoin posted an intraday amplitude of 6.3%, reaching a session high of $79.4K.
Altcoin markets continued to see heavy volume, with trading activity hitting a new year-to-date high, maintaining around 60% of total market share.
Market sentiment recovered slightly from the weekend but remains stuck in the “Extreme Fear” zone.
• Project Updates
◦ Trending Tokens: HYPE, XRP, ZAMA
◦ HYPE: Hyperliquid announced that HyperCore will support outcome trading (HIP-4).
◦ XRP: Ripple obtained a “full EMI license” from Luxembourg’s CSSF, enabling expansion of blockchain payments and digital asset services across the EU.
◦ ZAMA: Coinbase, Binance, Bybit, HTX, Bitget, and others have rapidly listed spot and derivatives products, while disclosing staking and DPoS mechanisms.
◦ UNI: Uniswap launched an on-chain auction feature (CCA) on its web interface; Rainbow token RNBW will be auctioned via CCA.
◦ JUP: Jupiter is bringing Polymarket to Solana and secured a $35M strategic investment in JUP from ParaFi.
◦ CLANKER: Activity in the Base ecosystem remains strong, with Clanker generating over $8M in protocol fees last week, a record high.
◦ DEEP/WAL: Coinbase added DeepBook (DEEP) and Walrus (WAL) to its listing roadmap.
◦ Purch: Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire mentioned the Purch project on X, triggering a rapid market cap surge for the Solana-based token PURCH.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 17 (14 twenty-four hours ago) — Level: Extreme Fear
Today’s Watchlist
• 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will deliver remarks
• CoinList will launch the public sale of AC’s new project Flying Tulip (FT)
• US December JOLTs job openings data postponed due to the government shutdown
Macroeconomic Development
• Trump released positive tariff-related signals: US tariffs on India reduced to 18%
• US January ISM Manufacturing Index jumped to 52.6, the highest since February 2022
• Due to the partial US government shutdown, January employment data will not be released on schedule
• Fed’s Bostic: Inflation remains elevated; rate cuts are unlikely in 2026
Policy & Regulatory Signals
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March
• EU warned 12 member states for failing to implement crypto tax rules
• Bhutan’s sovereign wealth fund reduced holdings by another 26,535 ETH over the past 24 hours
Industry Headlines
• Trump on Abu Dhabi royal family’s $500M investment into WLFI: Unaware; matters handled by his son
• WSJ: Cboe plans to relaunch binary options trading to compete directly with prediction markets
• BitMine added 41,788 ETH last week; Tom Lee said weak sentiment still reflects the lingering shock from the 10/11 crash
• Strategy bought another 855 BTC at elevated levels, raising its average cost basis to $76,052
• CoinShares: Digital asset investment products saw $1.7B net outflows last week, turning year-to-date flows negative
• Ripple obtained Luxembourg CSSF’s full EMI license, enabling EU-wide expansion of blockchain payment and digital asset services
Feb 4, 2026
AI's disruptive impact triggers panic as Bitcoin hits new phase low
Summary
•Macroeconomy:President Trump signed a funding bill, temporarily ending parts of the U.S. government shutdown and marginally easing near-term policy risks. However, a newly released AI tool by Anthropic sparked concerns about potential disruption to software business models, triggering panic selling in software stocks and dragging U.S. equities sharply lower. All three major U.S. indices closed down, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 1.5%. Capital rotated out of tech stocks into small-cap equities and gold: small caps rose 0.3% against the trend, while precious metals rebounded strongly—spot gold jumped more than 6% on the day, and silver’s intraday gain briefly approached 12%.
• Crypto Market:The crypto market moved lower in tandem with the Nasdaq. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $72,835, breaking below its pre-tariff low from April last year. Despite a notable rebound into the close, the market remains in a weak recovery phase overall.
• Project Updates
◦ Hot Tokens: HYPE, STX, XAUT
◦ HYPE: The Hyperliquid ecosystem is advancing the HIP-4 proposal and preparing to launch a prediction market. Revenues of Hyperliquid’s HLP surged due to liquidations of large whale positions. Meanwhile, dissatisfaction within the crypto community toward CEXs following the “10/11” incident has fueled FOMO around DEX narratives. These factors combined to push HYPE up more than 18%.
◦ WLFI: The White House has drawn a red line, opposing crypto-related legislative provisions proposed by Democrats targeting Donald Trump.
◦ XAUT / PAXG: Gold reclaimed the $5,000 level once again.
◦ BIRB: Upbit announced the listing of BIRB in KRW, BTC, and USDT markets, driving a short-term surge of over 46%.
◦ CLAWD: Supported by ClawFomo incentives, CLAWD’s market cap rebounded to $20 million, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 80%.
◦ OWL: The number of OWL holders surpassed 90,000, with recent average daily trading volume of $2–2.5 billion. Owlto plans to develop a new meme project in 2026.
◦ CLAWSTR: An AI-agent-related token in the Base ecosystem, up more than 33x in 24 hours.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 14 (vs. 17 24 hours ago), indicating Extreme Fear
Today’s Watchlist
• U.S. January ADP Employment Report
• U.S. January ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• Tether-backed Stable mainnet upgrade to v1.2.0
Macroeconomic Updates
• Trump signs funding bill, ending parts of the U.S. government shutdown
• Federal Reserve Governor Milan has resigned as Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers
Policy Signals
• Trump: “I am a firm supporter of cryptocurrencies and the one who has spoken up the most for the crypto industry.”
• The White House is reportedly holding internal discussions with crypto firms and banks on stablecoin yield issues
• The Reserve Bank of India proposes advancing “BRICS digital currency interconnectivity,” planning to build a cross-border settlement “bridge” using a consortium blockchain
• Nevada files a civil lawsuit against Coinbase, alleging it offered sports event contracts without proper authorization
Industry Highlights
• German retail banking giant ING Deutschland opens access for retail investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETPs
• Kalshi records over $9.5 billion in notional trading volume in January, a new single-month all-time high
• Aptos ecosystem lending protocol Echelon opens airdrop claims
• Solana records 148 million non-vote transactions in a single day, a new all-time high; weekly transactions near 1 billion, roughly equivalent to Ethereum’s total over the past two years
• Billiton Diamond and Ctrl Alt complete the tokenization of $280 million worth of polished diamonds in the UAE, using Ripple custody and the XRP Ledger
• Elon Musk responds to the “Dogecoin to the Moon” timeline: possibly next year
• ZKsync to launch a ZKnomics staking pilot program
AI's disruptive impact triggers panic as Bitcoin hits new phase low
Summary
•Macroeconomy:President Trump signed a funding bill, temporarily ending parts of the U.S. government shutdown and marginally easing near-term policy risks. However, a newly released AI tool by Anthropic sparked concerns about potential disruption to software business models, triggering panic selling in software stocks and dragging U.S. equities sharply lower. All three major U.S. indices closed down, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 1.5%. Capital rotated out of tech stocks into small-cap equities and gold: small caps rose 0.3% against the trend, while precious metals rebounded strongly—spot gold jumped more than 6% on the day, and silver’s intraday gain briefly approached 12%.
• Crypto Market:The crypto market moved lower in tandem with the Nasdaq. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $72,835, breaking below its pre-tariff low from April last year. Despite a notable rebound into the close, the market remains in a weak recovery phase overall.
• Project Updates
◦ Hot Tokens: HYPE, STX, XAUT
◦ HYPE: The Hyperliquid ecosystem is advancing the HIP-4 proposal and preparing to launch a prediction market. Revenues of Hyperliquid’s HLP surged due to liquidations of large whale positions. Meanwhile, dissatisfaction within the crypto community toward CEXs following the “10/11” incident has fueled FOMO around DEX narratives. These factors combined to push HYPE up more than 18%.
◦ WLFI: The White House has drawn a red line, opposing crypto-related legislative provisions proposed by Democrats targeting Donald Trump.
◦ XAUT / PAXG: Gold reclaimed the $5,000 level once again.
◦ BIRB: Upbit announced the listing of BIRB in KRW, BTC, and USDT markets, driving a short-term surge of over 46%.
◦ CLAWD: Supported by ClawFomo incentives, CLAWD’s market cap rebounded to $20 million, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 80%.
◦ OWL: The number of OWL holders surpassed 90,000, with recent average daily trading volume of $2–2.5 billion. Owlto plans to develop a new meme project in 2026.
◦ CLAWSTR: An AI-agent-related token in the Base ecosystem, up more than 33x in 24 hours.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 14 (vs. 17 24 hours ago), indicating Extreme Fear
Today’s Watchlist
• U.S. January ADP Employment Report
• U.S. January ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• Tether-backed Stable mainnet upgrade to v1.2.0
Macroeconomic Updates
• Trump signs funding bill, ending parts of the U.S. government shutdown
• Federal Reserve Governor Milan has resigned as Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers
Policy Signals
• Trump: “I am a firm supporter of cryptocurrencies and the one who has spoken up the most for the crypto industry.”
• The White House is reportedly holding internal discussions with crypto firms and banks on stablecoin yield issues
• The Reserve Bank of India proposes advancing “BRICS digital currency interconnectivity,” planning to build a cross-border settlement “bridge” using a consortium blockchain
• Nevada files a civil lawsuit against Coinbase, alleging it offered sports event contracts without proper authorization
Industry Highlights
• German retail banking giant ING Deutschland opens access for retail investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETPs
• Kalshi records over $9.5 billion in notional trading volume in January, a new single-month all-time high
• Aptos ecosystem lending protocol Echelon opens airdrop claims
• Solana records 148 million non-vote transactions in a single day, a new all-time high; weekly transactions near 1 billion, roughly equivalent to Ethereum’s total over the past two years
• Billiton Diamond and Ctrl Alt complete the tokenization of $280 million worth of polished diamonds in the UAE, using Ripple custody and the XRP Ledger
• Elon Musk responds to the “Dogecoin to the Moon” timeline: possibly next year
• ZKsync to launch a ZKnomics staking pilot program
2026.2.5
U.S. Employment Weakness Pushes Bitcoin to a New Cycle Low
Summary
• Macro Environment: U.S.–Iran negotiations, originally scheduled for the 6th and previously at risk of collapse after U.S. threats to withdraw, have temporarily resumed. U.S. economic data showed divergence: the services PMI remained strong while ADP employment figures weakened sharply. Ongoing AI-related concerns continued to pressure U.S. equities, with mega-cap tech underperforming again; among the three major indices, only the Dow posted gains. Driven by geopolitical risk and employment concerns, gold briefly returned above $5,000 but failed to hold the level.
• Crypto Market: Amid complex external pressures, Bitcoin fell to a new cycle low, briefly touching $71.8K. Total crypto market capitalization dropped below $2.5 trillion. Altcoins declined with increased volume but posted relatively smaller losses, leading to a slight rebound in market dominance. Sentiment remains deeply entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone with no meaningful improvement.
• Project Updates
◦ Trending Tokens: XAUT, OPN, WHITEWHALE
◦ XAUT/PAXG: Gold briefly reclaimed the $5,000 level
◦ HYPE: Ripple Prime integrated Hyperliquid, expanding institutional DeFi access
◦ OPN: Prediction market platform Opinion completed a $20M Series A led by investors including Jump Crypto
◦ WHITEWHALE: Market cap rebounded to $100M; token’s prototype figure “The White Whale” has been actively accumulating
◦ WMTX: World Mobile released its 2026 global expansion roadmap, accelerating decentralized telecom adoption
◦ DOOD: Coinbase listed Doodles (DOOD)
◦ CLAWSTR: AI-agent decentralized social network Clawstr’s token surged 33x within 24 hours, with market cap reaching $13.7M
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 12 (vs. 14 24h earlier) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• U.S. initial jobless claims (week ending Jan 31)
• Speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic (2027 FOMC voter)
• XDC Network (XDC) token unlock: ~841M tokens (~$29.3M)
Macro Economy
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed the January Nonfarm Payrolls report to Feb 11
• U.S.–Iran talks scheduled for the 6th have resumed after nearing collapse
• U.S. January ISM Services PMI: 53.8, matching the highest level since Oct 2024 and beating expectations
• U.S. January ADP employment: +22K, below the 48K consensus; labor market continues to cool
• U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding plan released in line with expectations
Policy & Regulation
• CME affiliate Bitnomial to launch the first regulated Tezos (XTZ) futures in the U.S.
• Hong Kong accelerates stablecoin regulation; HKMA aims to issue the first licenses in March
• Nevada filed a civil lawsuit against Coinbase for allegedly offering sports event contracts without a license
• CFTC to reassess regulatory and enforcement approaches toward prediction markets/event contracts, rolling back some Biden-era initiatives
Industry Highlights
• Ripple Prime integrates Hyperliquid for on-chain derivatives trading
• European stablecoin progress: BBVA joins EU bank stablecoin initiative Qivalis
• ProShares launches the first U.S. ETF offering one-click exposure to the top 20 crypto assets
• Prediction market Opinion completes $20M Series A (Jump Crypto among investors)
• UBS reportedly considering crypto services for retail clients
• U.S.-listed firm Tian Ruixiang plans equity-linked transactions to acquire 15,000 BTC
• Vitalik Buterin states the original L2 vision is “outdated,” calling for new development paths
• UK’s largest Bitcoin treasury company SWC lists on the London Stock Exchange main board
U.S. Employment Weakness Pushes Bitcoin to a New Cycle Low
Summary
• Macro Environment: U.S.–Iran negotiations, originally scheduled for the 6th and previously at risk of collapse after U.S. threats to withdraw, have temporarily resumed. U.S. economic data showed divergence: the services PMI remained strong while ADP employment figures weakened sharply. Ongoing AI-related concerns continued to pressure U.S. equities, with mega-cap tech underperforming again; among the three major indices, only the Dow posted gains. Driven by geopolitical risk and employment concerns, gold briefly returned above $5,000 but failed to hold the level.
• Crypto Market: Amid complex external pressures, Bitcoin fell to a new cycle low, briefly touching $71.8K. Total crypto market capitalization dropped below $2.5 trillion. Altcoins declined with increased volume but posted relatively smaller losses, leading to a slight rebound in market dominance. Sentiment remains deeply entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone with no meaningful improvement.
• Project Updates
◦ Trending Tokens: XAUT, OPN, WHITEWHALE
◦ XAUT/PAXG: Gold briefly reclaimed the $5,000 level
◦ HYPE: Ripple Prime integrated Hyperliquid, expanding institutional DeFi access
◦ OPN: Prediction market platform Opinion completed a $20M Series A led by investors including Jump Crypto
◦ WHITEWHALE: Market cap rebounded to $100M; token’s prototype figure “The White Whale” has been actively accumulating
◦ WMTX: World Mobile released its 2026 global expansion roadmap, accelerating decentralized telecom adoption
◦ DOOD: Coinbase listed Doodles (DOOD)
◦ CLAWSTR: AI-agent decentralized social network Clawstr’s token surged 33x within 24 hours, with market cap reaching $13.7M
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 12 (vs. 14 24h earlier) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• U.S. initial jobless claims (week ending Jan 31)
• Speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic (2027 FOMC voter)
• XDC Network (XDC) token unlock: ~841M tokens (~$29.3M)
Macro Economy
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed the January Nonfarm Payrolls report to Feb 11
• U.S.–Iran talks scheduled for the 6th have resumed after nearing collapse
• U.S. January ISM Services PMI: 53.8, matching the highest level since Oct 2024 and beating expectations
• U.S. January ADP employment: +22K, below the 48K consensus; labor market continues to cool
• U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding plan released in line with expectations
Policy & Regulation
• CME affiliate Bitnomial to launch the first regulated Tezos (XTZ) futures in the U.S.
• Hong Kong accelerates stablecoin regulation; HKMA aims to issue the first licenses in March
• Nevada filed a civil lawsuit against Coinbase for allegedly offering sports event contracts without a license
• CFTC to reassess regulatory and enforcement approaches toward prediction markets/event contracts, rolling back some Biden-era initiatives
Industry Highlights
• Ripple Prime integrates Hyperliquid for on-chain derivatives trading
• European stablecoin progress: BBVA joins EU bank stablecoin initiative Qivalis
• ProShares launches the first U.S. ETF offering one-click exposure to the top 20 crypto assets
• Prediction market Opinion completes $20M Series A (Jump Crypto among investors)
• UBS reportedly considering crypto services for retail clients
• U.S.-listed firm Tian Ruixiang plans equity-linked transactions to acquire 15,000 BTC
• Vitalik Buterin states the original L2 vision is “outdated,” calling for new development paths
• UK’s largest Bitcoin treasury company SWC lists on the London Stock Exchange main board
Feb 6, 2026
Risk Asset Selloff Continues as Bitcoin Plunges Toward 200-Day Moving Average
Summary
• Macro: Latest U.S. employment data point to a notably softening labor market, yet market expectations for a March rate cut have not materially increased. Both the ECB and the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, with the BoE delivering a more explicit dovish signal. Meanwhile, panic surrounding the AI sector continued to spread. Under pressure from a sharp selloff in tech stocks, all three major U.S. equity indices closed lower. Precious metals pulled back, while rising risk aversion drove U.S. Treasury yields sharply downward.
• Crypto Market: The crypto market saw a steep decline, with Bitcoin briefly falling to $60K and recording its largest single-day drop since October 2022. Total crypto market capitalization erased over $200 billion, with trading volumes continuing to expand. Altcoins also declined but underperformed Bitcoin in terms of downside, leading to a slight increase in their market share. Market sentiment remains highly fearful. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average, around the $58,000–$60,000 range, may serve as a key potential support zone. Amid the recent surge in market volatility, close attention is advised on technical stability, risk controls for leveraged derivatives, liquidity management contingency planning, and enhanced user care and retention measures during extreme market conditions.
• Project Developments
◦ Hot tokens: HYPE, RNBW
◦ HYPE: Coinbase to list HYPE spot trading; Hyperliquid previously proposed HIP-4; Ripple Prime integrates Hyperliquid
◦ RNBW: Coinbase to list RNBW; Binance Alpha to list RNBW and distribute an airdrop; CoinList distribution underway
◦ SKR/ZRO: Robinhood launches SKR and ZRO spot trading
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 9 (24h prior: 12) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• Release of U.S. January unemployment rate, January nonfarm payrolls (seasonally adjusted), and final 2025 nonfarm benchmark revision postponed
• Amazon to release annual report
• Preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (U.S.)
• Strategy to release 2025 Q4 earnings and host conference call
• Hyperliquid (HYPE) token unlock: ~9.92M tokens (~$305M)
• Berachain (BERA) token unlock: ~63.75M tokens (~$30.8M)
Macro Economy
• U.S. initial jobless claims (week ending Jan 31): 231K vs. 212K expected, prior 209K
• U.S. December JOLTS job openings: 6.542M, lowest since Sep 2020 (expected 7.25M); November revised down to 6.928M
• U.S. Challenger January layoffs: 108K, highest for the month since 2009, up 205% MoM
• ECB kept all three key rates unchanged, in line with expectations
• BoE held rates at 3.75%; 5–4 vote signaled strong easing bias
• Trump stated that “Waller would already be out if he proposed hikes”; Bessent said the president can intervene with the Fed
Policy Direction
• Brazil plans to ban issuance and trading of algorithmic stablecoins; offshore stablecoins must be provided by locally operated entities
• CFTC withdraws Biden-era proposal banning political event prediction contracts; CFTC chair supports lawful innovation in prediction markets and calls for clear regulatory frameworks
• U.S. House launches probe into a $500M transaction involving WLFI and a UAE royal family member
• Hong Kong SFC reportedly considering allowing licensed VATPs to offer tokenized securities secondary trading to retail investors
Industry Highlights
• ~$2.114B liquidated across the crypto market in the past 24 hours
• Strategy reported a $12.4B net loss in Q4 2025; raised $25.3B throughout the year; unrealized losses on holdings once widened to $10.16B, a record high
• Some Antminer S21 models and Whatsminer M60-and-below series have reached shutdown price levels
• Gemini to cease operations in the UK, EEA, and Australia
• Circle partners with Polymarket to bring stablecoin infrastructure into prediction markets
• Tether makes $100M strategic equity investment in Anchorage Digital
Risk Asset Selloff Continues as Bitcoin Plunges Toward 200-Day Moving Average
Summary
• Macro: Latest U.S. employment data point to a notably softening labor market, yet market expectations for a March rate cut have not materially increased. Both the ECB and the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, with the BoE delivering a more explicit dovish signal. Meanwhile, panic surrounding the AI sector continued to spread. Under pressure from a sharp selloff in tech stocks, all three major U.S. equity indices closed lower. Precious metals pulled back, while rising risk aversion drove U.S. Treasury yields sharply downward.
• Crypto Market: The crypto market saw a steep decline, with Bitcoin briefly falling to $60K and recording its largest single-day drop since October 2022. Total crypto market capitalization erased over $200 billion, with trading volumes continuing to expand. Altcoins also declined but underperformed Bitcoin in terms of downside, leading to a slight increase in their market share. Market sentiment remains highly fearful. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average, around the $58,000–$60,000 range, may serve as a key potential support zone. Amid the recent surge in market volatility, close attention is advised on technical stability, risk controls for leveraged derivatives, liquidity management contingency planning, and enhanced user care and retention measures during extreme market conditions.
• Project Developments
◦ Hot tokens: HYPE, RNBW
◦ HYPE: Coinbase to list HYPE spot trading; Hyperliquid previously proposed HIP-4; Ripple Prime integrates Hyperliquid
◦ RNBW: Coinbase to list RNBW; Binance Alpha to list RNBW and distribute an airdrop; CoinList distribution underway
◦ SKR/ZRO: Robinhood launches SKR and ZRO spot trading
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 9 (24h prior: 12) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• Release of U.S. January unemployment rate, January nonfarm payrolls (seasonally adjusted), and final 2025 nonfarm benchmark revision postponed
• Amazon to release annual report
• Preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (U.S.)
• Strategy to release 2025 Q4 earnings and host conference call
• Hyperliquid (HYPE) token unlock: ~9.92M tokens (~$305M)
• Berachain (BERA) token unlock: ~63.75M tokens (~$30.8M)
Macro Economy
• U.S. initial jobless claims (week ending Jan 31): 231K vs. 212K expected, prior 209K
• U.S. December JOLTS job openings: 6.542M, lowest since Sep 2020 (expected 7.25M); November revised down to 6.928M
• U.S. Challenger January layoffs: 108K, highest for the month since 2009, up 205% MoM
• ECB kept all three key rates unchanged, in line with expectations
• BoE held rates at 3.75%; 5–4 vote signaled strong easing bias
• Trump stated that “Waller would already be out if he proposed hikes”; Bessent said the president can intervene with the Fed
Policy Direction
• Brazil plans to ban issuance and trading of algorithmic stablecoins; offshore stablecoins must be provided by locally operated entities
• CFTC withdraws Biden-era proposal banning political event prediction contracts; CFTC chair supports lawful innovation in prediction markets and calls for clear regulatory frameworks
• U.S. House launches probe into a $500M transaction involving WLFI and a UAE royal family member
• Hong Kong SFC reportedly considering allowing licensed VATPs to offer tokenized securities secondary trading to retail investors
Industry Highlights
• ~$2.114B liquidated across the crypto market in the past 24 hours
• Strategy reported a $12.4B net loss in Q4 2025; raised $25.3B throughout the year; unrealized losses on holdings once widened to $10.16B, a record high
• Some Antminer S21 models and Whatsminer M60-and-below series have reached shutdown price levels
• Gemini to cease operations in the UK, EEA, and Australia
• Circle partners with Polymarket to bring stablecoin infrastructure into prediction markets
• Tether makes $100M strategic equity investment in Anchorage Digital
Feb 10, 2026
Bessent rules out aggressive balance-sheet reduction; crypto market trades quietly and consolidates
Summary
• Macro:
Ahead of Wednesday’s nonfarm payroll release, the White House signaled expectations in advance to manage market sentiment. Hassett hinted that job growth may come in below market expectations.
Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that even if Warsh were to become Fed Chair, the balance-sheet reduction process would not be accelerated, effectively ruling out aggressive monetary tightening.
Previously battered tech and software sectors extended their rebound, lifting U.S. equities broadly; the Dow closed at another record high for the second consecutive session.
Precious metals remained range-bound, with gold consolidating around $5,000 and silver near $80.
• Crypto market:
The crypto market has entered a consolidation phase. Bitcoin is fluctuating around the $70k level, with trading volume slightly rebounding from Sunday. Overall activity remains subdued; most altcoins continue to decline and volumes are contracting.
Market sentiment has weakened further since the weekend, with the Fear & Greed Index falling back to single digits.
• Project developments:
◦ Trending tokens: XAU/XAG, XRP, PIPPIN
◦ XAU/XAG: Gold consolidates around $5,000; silver around $80
◦ XRP: Ripple expands custody/staking services; partners with Figment to support Ethereum and Solana staking
◦ PIPPIN: Market cap temporarily at $278M, up 11% in 24h
◦ SKY: Sky Protocol repurchased 31M SKY tokens last week; cumulative buyback exceeds 108M USDS
◦ ADA/LINK/XLM: CME lists futures for ADA, LINK, and XLM, including micro contracts
◦ TON: TON Foundation launches payment SDK “TON Pay”
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 9 (14, 24 hours ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s outlook
• Next White House meeting on stablecoin yield discussions
• Speech: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack
• Speech: 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan
• U.S. December retail sales MoM
• Robinhood annual report release
• Consensus HK opens
• Aptos (APT) unlock: ~11.31M tokens (~$12.3M)
Macro economy
• Trump claims Warsh could drive 15% U.S. economic growth and again criticizes Powell
• Hassett: Employment data likely to decline slightly but should not trigger panic
• Fed Governor Waller: A “streamlined master account” will be introduced this year
Policy direction
• Former House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry and White House advisor Patrick Witt said in a livestream that U.S. crypto legislation is accelerating. A major bill covering crypto market structure could be completed within months.
• The Bithumb incident may affect CEX business qualifications; Korean regulators will investigate the “ghost bitcoin” issue across the industry.
• U.S. law firms begin investigating potential securities claims against Balancer related to the $128M hack.
• Hong Kong Chief Executive’s Policy Unit digital finance roundtable: shifting focus from financial innovation toward serving the real economy and promoting high-quality financial development.
• Polymarket sues Massachusetts, seeking federal court intervention.
Industry highlights
• KuCoin will attend Consensus Hong Kong 2026 (Feb 10–12). VP and Head of Risk Control Edwin Wong will join the roundtable “Turning Intelligence Into Action,” discussing how “trust-first” infrastructure can convert market data, on-chain signals, and AI capabilities into actionable risk control and governance practices.
• Strategy bought an additional 1,142 BTC last week for $90M (avg. price $78,815).
• Bitmine added another 40,000 ETH today (~$83.38M); last week added 40,613 ETH. Tom Lee expects ETH to stage a typical “V-shaped” rebound.
• CME officially launches ADA, LINK, and XLM futures.
• CoinShares: Digital asset investment products saw $187M outflows last week.
• Jump Trading exchanged market-making/liquidity services for small equity stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket.
Bessent rules out aggressive balance-sheet reduction; crypto market trades quietly and consolidates
Summary
• Macro:
Ahead of Wednesday’s nonfarm payroll release, the White House signaled expectations in advance to manage market sentiment. Hassett hinted that job growth may come in below market expectations.
Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that even if Warsh were to become Fed Chair, the balance-sheet reduction process would not be accelerated, effectively ruling out aggressive monetary tightening.
Previously battered tech and software sectors extended their rebound, lifting U.S. equities broadly; the Dow closed at another record high for the second consecutive session.
Precious metals remained range-bound, with gold consolidating around $5,000 and silver near $80.
• Crypto market:
The crypto market has entered a consolidation phase. Bitcoin is fluctuating around the $70k level, with trading volume slightly rebounding from Sunday. Overall activity remains subdued; most altcoins continue to decline and volumes are contracting.
Market sentiment has weakened further since the weekend, with the Fear & Greed Index falling back to single digits.
• Project developments:
◦ Trending tokens: XAU/XAG, XRP, PIPPIN
◦ XAU/XAG: Gold consolidates around $5,000; silver around $80
◦ XRP: Ripple expands custody/staking services; partners with Figment to support Ethereum and Solana staking
◦ PIPPIN: Market cap temporarily at $278M, up 11% in 24h
◦ SKY: Sky Protocol repurchased 31M SKY tokens last week; cumulative buyback exceeds 108M USDS
◦ ADA/LINK/XLM: CME lists futures for ADA, LINK, and XLM, including micro contracts
◦ TON: TON Foundation launches payment SDK “TON Pay”
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 9 (14, 24 hours ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s outlook
• Next White House meeting on stablecoin yield discussions
• Speech: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack
• Speech: 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan
• U.S. December retail sales MoM
• Robinhood annual report release
• Consensus HK opens
• Aptos (APT) unlock: ~11.31M tokens (~$12.3M)
Macro economy
• Trump claims Warsh could drive 15% U.S. economic growth and again criticizes Powell
• Hassett: Employment data likely to decline slightly but should not trigger panic
• Fed Governor Waller: A “streamlined master account” will be introduced this year
Policy direction
• Former House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry and White House advisor Patrick Witt said in a livestream that U.S. crypto legislation is accelerating. A major bill covering crypto market structure could be completed within months.
• The Bithumb incident may affect CEX business qualifications; Korean regulators will investigate the “ghost bitcoin” issue across the industry.
• U.S. law firms begin investigating potential securities claims against Balancer related to the $128M hack.
• Hong Kong Chief Executive’s Policy Unit digital finance roundtable: shifting focus from financial innovation toward serving the real economy and promoting high-quality financial development.
• Polymarket sues Massachusetts, seeking federal court intervention.
Industry highlights
• KuCoin will attend Consensus Hong Kong 2026 (Feb 10–12). VP and Head of Risk Control Edwin Wong will join the roundtable “Turning Intelligence Into Action,” discussing how “trust-first” infrastructure can convert market data, on-chain signals, and AI capabilities into actionable risk control and governance practices.
• Strategy bought an additional 1,142 BTC last week for $90M (avg. price $78,815).
• Bitmine added another 40,000 ETH today (~$83.38M); last week added 40,613 ETH. Tom Lee expects ETH to stage a typical “V-shaped” rebound.
• CME officially launches ADA, LINK, and XLM futures.
• CoinShares: Digital asset investment products saw $187M outflows last week.
• Jump Trading exchanged market-making/liquidity services for small equity stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket.
❤1
Feb 13, 2026
Escalating AI Fears Weigh on U.S. Equities; Crypto Market Remains in Defensive Consolidation
Summary
Macro：Investor concerns over AI disrupting traditional industry business models continued to intensify, triggering broad-based selling across risk assets. All three major U.S. equity indices fell more than 1%, with the Nasdaq leading losses at over 2%. Spot silver plunged more than 10%, while gold dropped over 3%, breaking below key technical levels. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries rallied, with yields on both the 10-year and 30-year bonds declining by more than 7 basis points, reflecting a clear shift toward risk aversion.
Crypto Market：Despite January’s nonfarm payrolls broadly signaling economic resilience, Bitcoin faced repeated resistance near the $69,000 level. After forming a short-term top, BTC entered a phase of choppy decline and established a short-term consolidation range between $67,800 and $68,000, indicating defensive price action following a structural breakdown.Expectations for altcoins to outperform remain subdued overall, though select narrative-driven tokens have shown relative strength. Market sentiment remains in the fear zone, albeit with modest improvement compared to the previous day.
Project Updates
Trending Tokens: ESP, S, WHITEWHALE, WIFI, BERA
• ESP: Airdrop and multi-platform listings launched simultaneously; listings on major exchanges boosted market attention.
• BERA: Token surged abnormally, with intraday gains exceeding 130%. The rally followed a strategic shift toward revenue-oriented applications and the smooth absorption of the Feb 6 token unlock without triggering a sell-off.
• WIFI: WLFI plans to launch a forex platform, World Swap.
• S: Sonic Labs announced a strategic restructuring, focusing on core blockchain infrastructure while streamlining peripheral product lines; the token rose briefly.
• WHITEWHALE: After market cap halved, trader “TheWhiteWhale” publicly accumulated tokens, raising holdings to 58% of supply. Weekly purchases exceeded $2.1 million, with a daily rebound surpassing 50%.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 9 (24 hours ago: 5) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Key Events
• U.S. January CPI (YoY)
• Coinbase annual report release
• Pendle launches PENDLE buyback program
Macro Developments
• U.S. House passes resolution opposing Trump’s proposed tariff increase on Canada
• Mizuho Bank: Bank of Japan may raise rates up to three times this year
Policy & Regulatory
• American Bankers Association urges regulators to slow crypto banking license approvals
• Thai cabinet approves amendments to the “Derivatives Act” to allow cryptocurrencies as underlying assets
• UAE Central Bank and Hong Kong Monetary Authority deepen financial cooperation and market connectivity
• SEC Chair: Providing a clear regulatory framework for digital assets is among the SEC’s top priorities this year
Industry Highlights
• Base.dev launches a leaderboard feature showcasing top-performing applications on Base
• USD AI introduces a “Level Up” mechanism; Allo Game participants can choose Boost and Max strategies
• Stellar partners with TopNod to accelerate real-world asset (RWA) adoption
• Lightning Labs open-sources lightning-agent-tools, enabling native AI agent integration with Lightning Network payments
• Pudgy Penguins to launch Pengu Visa card in partnership with KAST
• Strategy plans to issue additional perpetual preferred shares to reduce stock price volatility
• Zerohash adds support for Monad to expand USDC stablecoin payment services
• Sui collaborates with Ethena Labs to launch synthetic dollar eSui Dollar
Escalating AI Fears Weigh on U.S. Equities; Crypto Market Remains in Defensive Consolidation
Summary
Macro：Investor concerns over AI disrupting traditional industry business models continued to intensify, triggering broad-based selling across risk assets. All three major U.S. equity indices fell more than 1%, with the Nasdaq leading losses at over 2%. Spot silver plunged more than 10%, while gold dropped over 3%, breaking below key technical levels. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries rallied, with yields on both the 10-year and 30-year bonds declining by more than 7 basis points, reflecting a clear shift toward risk aversion.
Crypto Market：Despite January’s nonfarm payrolls broadly signaling economic resilience, Bitcoin faced repeated resistance near the $69,000 level. After forming a short-term top, BTC entered a phase of choppy decline and established a short-term consolidation range between $67,800 and $68,000, indicating defensive price action following a structural breakdown.Expectations for altcoins to outperform remain subdued overall, though select narrative-driven tokens have shown relative strength. Market sentiment remains in the fear zone, albeit with modest improvement compared to the previous day.
Project Updates
Trending Tokens: ESP, S, WHITEWHALE, WIFI, BERA
• ESP: Airdrop and multi-platform listings launched simultaneously; listings on major exchanges boosted market attention.
• BERA: Token surged abnormally, with intraday gains exceeding 130%. The rally followed a strategic shift toward revenue-oriented applications and the smooth absorption of the Feb 6 token unlock without triggering a sell-off.
• WIFI: WLFI plans to launch a forex platform, World Swap.
• S: Sonic Labs announced a strategic restructuring, focusing on core blockchain infrastructure while streamlining peripheral product lines; the token rose briefly.
• WHITEWHALE: After market cap halved, trader “TheWhiteWhale” publicly accumulated tokens, raising holdings to 58% of supply. Weekly purchases exceeded $2.1 million, with a daily rebound surpassing 50%.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 9 (24 hours ago: 5) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Key Events
• U.S. January CPI (YoY)
• Coinbase annual report release
• Pendle launches PENDLE buyback program
Macro Developments
• U.S. House passes resolution opposing Trump’s proposed tariff increase on Canada
• Mizuho Bank: Bank of Japan may raise rates up to three times this year
Policy & Regulatory
• American Bankers Association urges regulators to slow crypto banking license approvals
• Thai cabinet approves amendments to the “Derivatives Act” to allow cryptocurrencies as underlying assets
• UAE Central Bank and Hong Kong Monetary Authority deepen financial cooperation and market connectivity
• SEC Chair: Providing a clear regulatory framework for digital assets is among the SEC’s top priorities this year
Industry Highlights
• Base.dev launches a leaderboard feature showcasing top-performing applications on Base
• USD AI introduces a “Level Up” mechanism; Allo Game participants can choose Boost and Max strategies
• Stellar partners with TopNod to accelerate real-world asset (RWA) adoption
• Lightning Labs open-sources lightning-agent-tools, enabling native AI agent integration with Lightning Network payments
• Pudgy Penguins to launch Pengu Visa card in partnership with KAST
• Strategy plans to issue additional perpetual preferred shares to reduce stock price volatility
• Zerohash adds support for Monad to expand USDC stablecoin payment services
• Sui collaborates with Ethena Labs to launch synthetic dollar eSui Dollar
February 24, 2026
Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Risk Assets; BTC Trades with a Weak Bias
Summary
Macro Economy
• Tariff policy maintains a hawkish stance, reigniting global trade uncertainty and pressuring market risk appetite. The three major U.S. equity indices each closed down around 1% or more, with weakness in the financials and software sectors dragging overall performance. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned part of former President Trump’s tariff measures, the U.S. dollar pulled back for two consecutive days from a four-week high. In commodities, safe-haven demand briefly pushed gold back above $5,200 intraday, but prices later retraced and fell below $5,150.
Crypto Market
• Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, with no clear directional breakout yet. Price retreated again toward the $64,000 level. A high-volume bearish candle into the close suggests persistent overhead selling pressure. Altcoins overall remain relatively weak; however, AI-related tokens have shown relative strength amid capital rotation. Market sentiment remains in the fear zone, though marginally improved from yesterday.
Project Developments
Trending Tokens: PIPPIN, AGLD, KITE, ARC, NEET
• PIPPIN: Social media traction returned, with daily social interactions up over 60%; token price gained more than 21% on the day.
• AGLD: Following the launch of the Dark Forest on-chain game, open interest surged; daily gain exceeded 44%.
• KITE: Price rallied significantly amid expanding trading volume and renewed market focus on the AI Agent narrative.
• ARC: AI-concept token; on-chain transfers have been active, with daily transfer volume up over 176% on Feb 22; gained more than 14% yesterday.
• NEET: Strong speculative sentiment drove a daily gain exceeding 85%.
m
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 8 (vs. 5 24 hours ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Key Events
• U.S. President Trump delivers the State of the Union address
• Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on the economic outlook
• Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks on AI
• SOSO to unlock 15.825 million tokens (~$6.35 million)
Macro Developments
• U.S. Customs has ceased collecting tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court.
• U.S.–Iran negotiators will meet in Geneva on Thursday, potentially representing the last opportunity to avoid military escalation.
Policy & Regulatory Updates
• Missouri’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill has advanced to the House Commerce Committee.
• The Bank of Korea has urged regulators to limit the issuance of KRW-denominated stablecoins to licensed commercial banks.
Industry Highlights
• Vitalik proposed introducing a transaction simulation feature to enhance Ethereum wallet and smart contract security, improving user experience.
• Traditional finance giants, including BlackRock and Citadel, are accelerating DeFi deployment, potentially to secure access to core DeFi infrastructure.
• Prediction markets recorded over 38 million weekly transactions, reaching a new all-time high.
• Pump.fun has cumulatively repurchased over $300 million worth of PUMP tokens.
• Australia’s Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF increased its BTC holdings to 1,248 coins.
• Bitdeer responded to its Bitcoin sale plan, stating it aims to reserve liquidity for land acquisition.
• IoTeX released a security incident update; compensation details for affected users will be announced within 48 hours.
• sUSDD’s TVL on Morpho surpassed $47 million.
Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Risk Assets; BTC Trades with a Weak Bias
Summary
Macro Economy
• Tariff policy maintains a hawkish stance, reigniting global trade uncertainty and pressuring market risk appetite. The three major U.S. equity indices each closed down around 1% or more, with weakness in the financials and software sectors dragging overall performance. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned part of former President Trump’s tariff measures, the U.S. dollar pulled back for two consecutive days from a four-week high. In commodities, safe-haven demand briefly pushed gold back above $5,200 intraday, but prices later retraced and fell below $5,150.
Crypto Market
• Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, with no clear directional breakout yet. Price retreated again toward the $64,000 level. A high-volume bearish candle into the close suggests persistent overhead selling pressure. Altcoins overall remain relatively weak; however, AI-related tokens have shown relative strength amid capital rotation. Market sentiment remains in the fear zone, though marginally improved from yesterday.
Project Developments
Trending Tokens: PIPPIN, AGLD, KITE, ARC, NEET
• PIPPIN: Social media traction returned, with daily social interactions up over 60%; token price gained more than 21% on the day.
• AGLD: Following the launch of the Dark Forest on-chain game, open interest surged; daily gain exceeded 44%.
• KITE: Price rallied significantly amid expanding trading volume and renewed market focus on the AI Agent narrative.
• ARC: AI-concept token; on-chain transfers have been active, with daily transfer volume up over 176% on Feb 22; gained more than 14% yesterday.
• NEET: Strong speculative sentiment drove a daily gain exceeding 85%.
m
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 8 (vs. 5 24 hours ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Key Events
• U.S. President Trump delivers the State of the Union address
• Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on the economic outlook
• Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks on AI
• SOSO to unlock 15.825 million tokens (~$6.35 million)
Macro Developments
• U.S. Customs has ceased collecting tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court.
• U.S.–Iran negotiators will meet in Geneva on Thursday, potentially representing the last opportunity to avoid military escalation.
Policy & Regulatory Updates
• Missouri’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill has advanced to the House Commerce Committee.
• The Bank of Korea has urged regulators to limit the issuance of KRW-denominated stablecoins to licensed commercial banks.
Industry Highlights
• Vitalik proposed introducing a transaction simulation feature to enhance Ethereum wallet and smart contract security, improving user experience.
• Traditional finance giants, including BlackRock and Citadel, are accelerating DeFi deployment, potentially to secure access to core DeFi infrastructure.
• Prediction markets recorded over 38 million weekly transactions, reaching a new all-time high.
• Pump.fun has cumulatively repurchased over $300 million worth of PUMP tokens.
• Australia’s Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF increased its BTC holdings to 1,248 coins.
• Bitdeer responded to its Bitcoin sale plan, stating it aims to reserve liquidity for land acquisition.
• IoTeX released a security incident update; compensation details for affected users will be announced within 48 hours.
• sUSDD’s TVL on Morpho surpassed $47 million.
February 25, 2026
AI Concerns Ease, U.S. Stocks Rebound, BTC Momentum Recovers
Macro Economy: Anthropic announced plans to proactively build industry partnerships, easing previous market concerns over a potential “AI shock.” The move supported a rebound in U.S. equities, with shares of partner companies broadly advancing. The U.S. Dollar Index remained resilient, rebounding after a brief consolidation and approaching a four-week high. In commodities, gold retreated after posting intraday highs for two consecutive sessions earlier this month, and is currently consolidating around $5,140.
Crypto Market: Continued liquidity tightness in the crypto market—driven by Federal Reserve tightening and weak capital inflows—has weighed on overall performance. After a sharp decline, BTC found support in the $62,800–$63,000 range, forming a short-term base before grinding higher. The latest breakout above $65,000 and the prior high-volume resistance zone has significantly improved short-term momentum. Altcoins have lagged overall, though market sentiment, while still in extreme fear territory, has shown signs of marginal stabilization.
Project Updates
Trending Tokens: PIPPIN, ESP, GPS, SKR, PAXG/XAUT, STEEM
PIPPIN: Extended gains for three consecutive days; social engagement rose over 27% yesterday, with the token up more than 13% on the day.
ESP: Surged over 110% following listings on two major Korean exchanges.
GPS: Jumped over 20% intraday on news of a Korean exchange listing.
SKR: Spiked more than 42% after spot trading launched on a Korean exchange.
PAXG/XAUT: Rising safe-haven demand and higher gold prices boosted interest in tokenized gold assets.
STEEM: Derivatives activity surged, with open interest spiking; the token rose over 30% at one point during the day.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 11 (24 hours ago: — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
NVIDIA earnings release
Eurozone January CPI (final YoY and MoM readings)
Plasma (XPL) to unlock ~88.89 million tokens (~$10.79M)
Humanity (H) to unlock ~105 million tokens (~$14.12M)
Macro Developments
Trump’s new 10% global import tariff has officially taken effect for the next 150 days.
Trump signaled a preference for negotiations over war regarding U.S.–Iran tensions.
Policy & Regulation
The Federal Reserve is considering removing “reputational risk” from supervisory criteria, potentially easing debanking pressure on crypto firms.
The U.S. SEC granted exemptive relief to WisdomTree’s Treasury Money Market Digital Fund.
Industry Highlights
The Ethereum Foundation initiated treasury staking, deploying 70,000 ETH to support ecosystem development and operations.
Hong Kong-based stablecoin payments firm RedotPay is reportedly considering a U.S. IPO, targeting a $1B valuation.
X updated its API policy to curb AI-driven comment spam.
Better and Framework Ventures announced a $500M stablecoin partnership to advance mortgage tokenization.
BlackRock and Citadel are accelerating their expansion into DeFi to gain access to DeFi infrastructure.
Trump’s “Peace Committee” is reportedly exploring a USD stablecoin pilot in Gaza.
Bitcoin BIP-110 proposal faces public opposition from several OG community members.
iShares filed for a staked Ethereum ETF, proposing a Nasdaq listing.
The Ethereum Foundation established a dedicated DeFi team to advance the DeFipunk protocol.
AI Concerns Ease, U.S. Stocks Rebound, BTC Momentum Recovers
Macro Economy: Anthropic announced plans to proactively build industry partnerships, easing previous market concerns over a potential “AI shock.” The move supported a rebound in U.S. equities, with shares of partner companies broadly advancing. The U.S. Dollar Index remained resilient, rebounding after a brief consolidation and approaching a four-week high. In commodities, gold retreated after posting intraday highs for two consecutive sessions earlier this month, and is currently consolidating around $5,140.
Crypto Market: Continued liquidity tightness in the crypto market—driven by Federal Reserve tightening and weak capital inflows—has weighed on overall performance. After a sharp decline, BTC found support in the $62,800–$63,000 range, forming a short-term base before grinding higher. The latest breakout above $65,000 and the prior high-volume resistance zone has significantly improved short-term momentum. Altcoins have lagged overall, though market sentiment, while still in extreme fear territory, has shown signs of marginal stabilization.
Project Updates
Trending Tokens: PIPPIN, ESP, GPS, SKR, PAXG/XAUT, STEEM
PIPPIN: Extended gains for three consecutive days; social engagement rose over 27% yesterday, with the token up more than 13% on the day.
ESP: Surged over 110% following listings on two major Korean exchanges.
GPS: Jumped over 20% intraday on news of a Korean exchange listing.
SKR: Spiked more than 42% after spot trading launched on a Korean exchange.
PAXG/XAUT: Rising safe-haven demand and higher gold prices boosted interest in tokenized gold assets.
STEEM: Derivatives activity surged, with open interest spiking; the token rose over 30% at one point during the day.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 11 (24 hours ago: — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
NVIDIA earnings release
Eurozone January CPI (final YoY and MoM readings)
Plasma (XPL) to unlock ~88.89 million tokens (~$10.79M)
Humanity (H) to unlock ~105 million tokens (~$14.12M)
Macro Developments
Trump’s new 10% global import tariff has officially taken effect for the next 150 days.
Trump signaled a preference for negotiations over war regarding U.S.–Iran tensions.
Policy & Regulation
The Federal Reserve is considering removing “reputational risk” from supervisory criteria, potentially easing debanking pressure on crypto firms.
The U.S. SEC granted exemptive relief to WisdomTree’s Treasury Money Market Digital Fund.
Industry Highlights
The Ethereum Foundation initiated treasury staking, deploying 70,000 ETH to support ecosystem development and operations.
Hong Kong-based stablecoin payments firm RedotPay is reportedly considering a U.S. IPO, targeting a $1B valuation.
X updated its API policy to curb AI-driven comment spam.
Better and Framework Ventures announced a $500M stablecoin partnership to advance mortgage tokenization.
BlackRock and Citadel are accelerating their expansion into DeFi to gain access to DeFi infrastructure.
Trump’s “Peace Committee” is reportedly exploring a USD stablecoin pilot in Gaza.
Bitcoin BIP-110 proposal faces public opposition from several OG community members.
iShares filed for a staked Ethereum ETF, proposing a Nasdaq listing.
The Ethereum Foundation established a dedicated DeFi team to advance the DeFipunk protocol.
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March 2, 2026
Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Risk Markets; Bitcoin Volatility Intensifies but Impact Remains Contained
Summary
• Macroeconomy: Renewed inflationary pressure combined with worsening geopolitical tensions delivered consecutive shocks to global risk assets. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted their largest monthly declines since March last year, while global equities broadly opened lower on Monday. Safe-haven flows rapidly shifted into gold and crude oil—both highly sensitive to geopolitical risk. Gold briefly surged above $5,300, and oil spiked to $75 before retracing, indicating a partial release of risk-off sentiment.
• Crypto Market: Amid escalating geopolitical conflict over the weekend, crypto markets were among the first to react. Bitcoin fell to a low of $63,000 before rebounding. Compared with previous geopolitical flare-ups, the overall market impact was relatively manageable, with no disorderly sell-off. However, sentiment indicators remain in the “Extreme Fear” zone, and short-term risk appetite has yet to recover.
• Project Updates:
◦ Hot Tokens: XAUT/PAXG, AAVE, UNI
◦ XAUT/PAXG: With traditional gold markets closed over the weekend, tokenized gold assumed the primary role in price discovery during the geopolitical shock, briefly exceeding $5,400.
◦ UNI: Uniswap initiated a multi-chain fee-sharing governance vote. The proposal plans to redirect at least one-sixth of transaction fees from certain networks—currently allocated to liquidity providers—into a “token jar,” to be distributed to UNI holders who burn an equivalent amount of UNI.
◦ AAVE: The “Aave Will Win” Temp Check proposal has passed. The proposal aims to transition Aave Labs toward a fully token-centric model, allocating 100% of product revenue directly to AAVE token holders.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 10 (24h ago: 14) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• ENA unlock: 0.53% of circulating supply (~$4.3 million).
Macroeconomy
• The United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran; multiple Iranian military commanders were confirmed killed.
• Donald Trump stated that operations against Iran may last up to four weeks until objectives are achieved.
• U.S. January PPI rose 0.5% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.9% YoY (vs. 2.6% expected).
Policy & Regulatory
• The SEC Chair stated that the U.S. had previously “missed significant opportunities” in crypto and is now working to catch up.
• UK regulators are considering allowing cryptocurrencies for gambling payments.
• Minnesota proposed legislation to ban crypto ATMs to combat scams targeting the elderly.
Industry Highlights
• KuCoin Ranks Among Top Three Exchanges in Animoca Brands Research 2025 Listing Report
• Michael Saylor again posted a Bitcoin Tracker update, potentially signaling further accumulation disclosures next week.
• X platform introduced a “Paid Partnership” label to enhance content transparency; promotions related to crypto and investment services may not qualify under the updated policy.
• Vitalik Buterin stated Ethereum’s scalability roadmap will proceed in two phases (short-term and long-term), introducing multidimensional gas to prevent state bloat.
• U.S. Crypto-chartered bank SoFi now supports Solana network deposits.
• Morgan Stanley applied for a U.S. trust bank license to expand into crypto custody and staking, with plans to offer Bitcoin custody, trading, yield, and lending services.
• MoonPay unveiled PYUSDx, a stablecoin issuance framework backed by PayPal’s PYUSD, enabling applications to launch their own stablecoins.
• Barclays is exploring a blockchain-based payments platform, potentially incorporating stablecoins and tokenized deposits.
• Citi plans to launch institutional-grade Bitcoin custody services in 2026.
• SBI Holdings announced the launch of a yen-backed stablecoin, JPYSC.
Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Risk Markets; Bitcoin Volatility Intensifies but Impact Remains Contained
Summary
• Macroeconomy: Renewed inflationary pressure combined with worsening geopolitical tensions delivered consecutive shocks to global risk assets. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted their largest monthly declines since March last year, while global equities broadly opened lower on Monday. Safe-haven flows rapidly shifted into gold and crude oil—both highly sensitive to geopolitical risk. Gold briefly surged above $5,300, and oil spiked to $75 before retracing, indicating a partial release of risk-off sentiment.
• Crypto Market: Amid escalating geopolitical conflict over the weekend, crypto markets were among the first to react. Bitcoin fell to a low of $63,000 before rebounding. Compared with previous geopolitical flare-ups, the overall market impact was relatively manageable, with no disorderly sell-off. However, sentiment indicators remain in the “Extreme Fear” zone, and short-term risk appetite has yet to recover.
• Project Updates:
◦ Hot Tokens: XAUT/PAXG, AAVE, UNI
◦ XAUT/PAXG: With traditional gold markets closed over the weekend, tokenized gold assumed the primary role in price discovery during the geopolitical shock, briefly exceeding $5,400.
◦ UNI: Uniswap initiated a multi-chain fee-sharing governance vote. The proposal plans to redirect at least one-sixth of transaction fees from certain networks—currently allocated to liquidity providers—into a “token jar,” to be distributed to UNI holders who burn an equivalent amount of UNI.
◦ AAVE: The “Aave Will Win” Temp Check proposal has passed. The proposal aims to transition Aave Labs toward a fully token-centric model, allocating 100% of product revenue directly to AAVE token holders.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 10 (24h ago: 14) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• ENA unlock: 0.53% of circulating supply (~$4.3 million).
Macroeconomy
• The United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran; multiple Iranian military commanders were confirmed killed.
• Donald Trump stated that operations against Iran may last up to four weeks until objectives are achieved.
• U.S. January PPI rose 0.5% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.9% YoY (vs. 2.6% expected).
Policy & Regulatory
• The SEC Chair stated that the U.S. had previously “missed significant opportunities” in crypto and is now working to catch up.
• UK regulators are considering allowing cryptocurrencies for gambling payments.
• Minnesota proposed legislation to ban crypto ATMs to combat scams targeting the elderly.
Industry Highlights
• KuCoin Ranks Among Top Three Exchanges in Animoca Brands Research 2025 Listing Report
• Michael Saylor again posted a Bitcoin Tracker update, potentially signaling further accumulation disclosures next week.
• X platform introduced a “Paid Partnership” label to enhance content transparency; promotions related to crypto and investment services may not qualify under the updated policy.
• Vitalik Buterin stated Ethereum’s scalability roadmap will proceed in two phases (short-term and long-term), introducing multidimensional gas to prevent state bloat.
• U.S. Crypto-chartered bank SoFi now supports Solana network deposits.
• Morgan Stanley applied for a U.S. trust bank license to expand into crypto custody and staking, with plans to offer Bitcoin custody, trading, yield, and lending services.
• MoonPay unveiled PYUSDx, a stablecoin issuance framework backed by PayPal’s PYUSD, enabling applications to launch their own stablecoins.
• Barclays is exploring a blockchain-based payments platform, potentially incorporating stablecoins and tokenized deposits.
• Citi plans to launch institutional-grade Bitcoin custody services in 2026.
• SBI Holdings announced the launch of a yen-backed stablecoin, JPYSC.
March 3, 2026
Geopolitical Risks Persist; Bitcoin Stages a V-Shaped Rebound in Sync with U.S. Equities
Summary
• Macroeconomy: Geopolitical conflict may persist for another four to five weeks. Iran claimed that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, pushing oil prices higher. The U.S. announced that it will roll out phased measures to stabilize oil prices in order to ease concerns over potential “imported inflation.” Against this backdrop, safe-haven gold extended its rally, while U.S. equities fell more than 1% intraday before rebounding to close higher.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin moved closely in line with U.S. equities, weakening during the Asian session and rebounding alongside U.S. stocks in the U.S. session, forming a V-shaped recovery. However, it faced renewed resistance at the $70,000 level. Despite the rebound, market sentiment remains in the “Extreme Fear” zone, showing little meaningful improvement. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance climbed back above 59%, indicating that capital continues to concentrate in core assets during the rebound phase, reflecting a “blue-chip first” allocation preference amid still-fragile risk appetite.
• Project Updates:
◦ Hot Tokens: NEAR, AAVE, ARC
◦ NEAR: Previously released the Nightshade 3.0 protocol upgrade, which enhances built-in privacy features, decouples formulas from execution, and separates execution from storage.
◦ FORM: Four.Meme is set to launch a new “Agentic Mode” this week, enabling AI agents to create meme tokens.
◦ DOT: Polkadot will adjust its economic framework starting March 12, setting a maximum total supply of 2.1 billion DOT. It will introduce a Dynamic Allocation Pool (DAP) to replace the previous treasury burn mechanism, allocating transaction fees, Coretime sales revenue, and slashed funds into a permanent account for dynamic budgeting.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 14 (24h ago: 10) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• MANTRA Chain plans to execute its v7.0.0 software upgrade, completing the rebranding of its native token from $OM to $MANTRA and implementing a 1:4 non-dilutive token split, increasing the maximum supply from 2.5 billion to 10 billion.
• Rayls will begin RLS pre-staking lock-up on March 3, with mainnet launch scheduled for Q3 this year.
Macroeconomy
• Donald Trump stated that military action against Iran may last four to five weeks.
• Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, stating it “will not allow a single drop of oil to pass.”
• JPMorgan warned that if passage through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for 3–4 weeks, crude oil prices could rise above $100 per barrel.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright will announce a phased oil price stabilization plan on Tuesday.
• U.S. February ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 52.4 (vs. 51.5 expected).
• A U.S. appeals court rejected the Trump administration’s request to delay tariff refund payments.
Policy & Regulation
• South Africa implemented new rules and technical measures to track crypto assets and offshore accounts.
• A draft tax law in Turkey proposes a 10% income tax on crypto assets and a 0.03% platform transaction tax.
Industry Highlights
• Strategy purchased 3,015 BTC last week at an average price of approximately $67,700, increasing its holdings to over 720,000 BTC.
• Bitmine increased its ETH holdings by 50,900 last week, bringing total ETH holdings to 4.4736 million.
• ProCap Financial added 450 BTC and accelerated share buybacks to narrow its NAV discount.
• Nasdaq is entering the prediction market, planning to launch binary options on the Nasdaq-100 index.
• Pump.fun expanded support to include tokens issued on competing meme launch platforms and other non-native assets.
Geopolitical Risks Persist; Bitcoin Stages a V-Shaped Rebound in Sync with U.S. Equities
Summary
• Macroeconomy: Geopolitical conflict may persist for another four to five weeks. Iran claimed that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, pushing oil prices higher. The U.S. announced that it will roll out phased measures to stabilize oil prices in order to ease concerns over potential “imported inflation.” Against this backdrop, safe-haven gold extended its rally, while U.S. equities fell more than 1% intraday before rebounding to close higher.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin moved closely in line with U.S. equities, weakening during the Asian session and rebounding alongside U.S. stocks in the U.S. session, forming a V-shaped recovery. However, it faced renewed resistance at the $70,000 level. Despite the rebound, market sentiment remains in the “Extreme Fear” zone, showing little meaningful improvement. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance climbed back above 59%, indicating that capital continues to concentrate in core assets during the rebound phase, reflecting a “blue-chip first” allocation preference amid still-fragile risk appetite.
• Project Updates:
◦ Hot Tokens: NEAR, AAVE, ARC
◦ NEAR: Previously released the Nightshade 3.0 protocol upgrade, which enhances built-in privacy features, decouples formulas from execution, and separates execution from storage.
◦ FORM: Four.Meme is set to launch a new “Agentic Mode” this week, enabling AI agents to create meme tokens.
◦ DOT: Polkadot will adjust its economic framework starting March 12, setting a maximum total supply of 2.1 billion DOT. It will introduce a Dynamic Allocation Pool (DAP) to replace the previous treasury burn mechanism, allocating transaction fees, Coretime sales revenue, and slashed funds into a permanent account for dynamic budgeting.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 14 (24h ago: 10) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• MANTRA Chain plans to execute its v7.0.0 software upgrade, completing the rebranding of its native token from $OM to $MANTRA and implementing a 1:4 non-dilutive token split, increasing the maximum supply from 2.5 billion to 10 billion.
• Rayls will begin RLS pre-staking lock-up on March 3, with mainnet launch scheduled for Q3 this year.
Macroeconomy
• Donald Trump stated that military action against Iran may last four to five weeks.
• Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, stating it “will not allow a single drop of oil to pass.”
• JPMorgan warned that if passage through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for 3–4 weeks, crude oil prices could rise above $100 per barrel.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright will announce a phased oil price stabilization plan on Tuesday.
• U.S. February ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 52.4 (vs. 51.5 expected).
• A U.S. appeals court rejected the Trump administration’s request to delay tariff refund payments.
Policy & Regulation
• South Africa implemented new rules and technical measures to track crypto assets and offshore accounts.
• A draft tax law in Turkey proposes a 10% income tax on crypto assets and a 0.03% platform transaction tax.
Industry Highlights
• Strategy purchased 3,015 BTC last week at an average price of approximately $67,700, increasing its holdings to over 720,000 BTC.
• Bitmine increased its ETH holdings by 50,900 last week, bringing total ETH holdings to 4.4736 million.
• ProCap Financial added 450 BTC and accelerated share buybacks to narrow its NAV discount.
• Nasdaq is entering the prediction market, planning to launch binary options on the Nasdaq-100 index.
• Pump.fun expanded support to include tokens issued on competing meme launch platforms and other non-native assets.
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March 5, 2026
Macro Data Boost Risk Appetite as Bitcoin Stages Strong Rebound
Summary
• Macro: Strong ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI helped ease market panic triggered by geopolitical tensions, driving a broad rebound across the three major U.S. stock indices. Oil prices declined for the first time since the escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, indicating a partial compression of risk premiums. Meanwhile, the South Korean government announced a KRW 100 trillion market stabilization plan. After triggering circuit breakers for two consecutive days, the Korean stock market saw a sharp rebound, signaling a notable recovery in regional risk sentiment.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin surged 6.3%, briefly breaking above $74,000, with its overall trend closely tracking U.S. equity indices. Bitcoin dominance rose for the third consecutive day, approaching 60%, indicating that capital continues to concentrate in BTC during the rebound, while altcoin activity remains in need of further recovery.
Project Updates
• Trending Tokens: BTC, ETH, PUMP, LINK
• CFG: Bithumb will list Centrifuge (CFG) with KRW trading pairs. CFG surged 35% in the past 24 hours.
• MANTRA: MANTRA Chain completed its v7.0.0 upgrade, renaming its native token from $OM to $MANTRA and executing a 1:4 non-dilutive token split, increasing the maximum supply from 2.5 billion to 10 billion. After CEXs resumed trading post-upgrade, MANTRA jumped 65% in the past 24 hours.
• ONDO: The Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) regulator has approved Ondo Finance’s tokenized stocks and ETFs for trading on Binance’s regulated platform.
• PUMP: Activity on the Solana network rebounded, combined with ongoing buybacks by Pump, driving PUMP up 6%.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 22 (24h ago: 10) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• idOS token auction via Tally and listing on March 5
Macro Highlights
• A U.S. Senate bill failed to block continued military action against Iran.
• Iran has begun governance preparations for a prolonged conflict.
• Fed Beige Book: Most districts expect slight to moderate economic growth in the coming months.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that raising tariffs to 15% is expected to be implemented within the week.
• The White House has submitted the nomination of Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate.
• U.S. February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the largest gain since November 2025, exceeding market expectations of 50,000.
• U.S. February ISM Services PMI reached its highest level since July 2022.
Policy Developments
• Arizona is advancing legislation to establish a state-level digital asset reserve fund using seized cryptocurrencies.
• The U.S. SEC and CFTC are progressing toward a regulatory framework for crypto assets and prediction markets.
Industry Highlights
• CryptoQuant’s Annual Exchange Leader Report ranked KuCoin as the leading exchange in Proof-of-Reserves transparency (96.7 score / A+ / No.1), aligning with its $2 billion Trust Project focused on security and compliance.
• Asset management giant BlackRock released a new Bitcoin advertisement.
• Morgan Stanley filed a registration statement with the SEC for a Bitcoin Trust ETF.
• Kraken’s approval for a Federal Reserve master account sparked opposition from banking industry groups.
• Lamborghini announced it will accept Bitcoin payments.
• On Polymarket, the probability of the “Clarity Act” being signed into law in 2026 rose to 72%.
Macro Data Boost Risk Appetite as Bitcoin Stages Strong Rebound
Summary
• Macro: Strong ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI helped ease market panic triggered by geopolitical tensions, driving a broad rebound across the three major U.S. stock indices. Oil prices declined for the first time since the escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, indicating a partial compression of risk premiums. Meanwhile, the South Korean government announced a KRW 100 trillion market stabilization plan. After triggering circuit breakers for two consecutive days, the Korean stock market saw a sharp rebound, signaling a notable recovery in regional risk sentiment.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin surged 6.3%, briefly breaking above $74,000, with its overall trend closely tracking U.S. equity indices. Bitcoin dominance rose for the third consecutive day, approaching 60%, indicating that capital continues to concentrate in BTC during the rebound, while altcoin activity remains in need of further recovery.
Project Updates
• Trending Tokens: BTC, ETH, PUMP, LINK
• CFG: Bithumb will list Centrifuge (CFG) with KRW trading pairs. CFG surged 35% in the past 24 hours.
• MANTRA: MANTRA Chain completed its v7.0.0 upgrade, renaming its native token from $OM to $MANTRA and executing a 1:4 non-dilutive token split, increasing the maximum supply from 2.5 billion to 10 billion. After CEXs resumed trading post-upgrade, MANTRA jumped 65% in the past 24 hours.
• ONDO: The Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) regulator has approved Ondo Finance’s tokenized stocks and ETFs for trading on Binance’s regulated platform.
• PUMP: Activity on the Solana network rebounded, combined with ongoing buybacks by Pump, driving PUMP up 6%.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 22 (24h ago: 10) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• idOS token auction via Tally and listing on March 5
Macro Highlights
• A U.S. Senate bill failed to block continued military action against Iran.
• Iran has begun governance preparations for a prolonged conflict.
• Fed Beige Book: Most districts expect slight to moderate economic growth in the coming months.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that raising tariffs to 15% is expected to be implemented within the week.
• The White House has submitted the nomination of Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate.
• U.S. February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the largest gain since November 2025, exceeding market expectations of 50,000.
• U.S. February ISM Services PMI reached its highest level since July 2022.
Policy Developments
• Arizona is advancing legislation to establish a state-level digital asset reserve fund using seized cryptocurrencies.
• The U.S. SEC and CFTC are progressing toward a regulatory framework for crypto assets and prediction markets.
Industry Highlights
• CryptoQuant’s Annual Exchange Leader Report ranked KuCoin as the leading exchange in Proof-of-Reserves transparency (96.7 score / A+ / No.1), aligning with its $2 billion Trust Project focused on security and compliance.
• Asset management giant BlackRock released a new Bitcoin advertisement.
• Morgan Stanley filed a registration statement with the SEC for a Bitcoin Trust ETF.
• Kraken’s approval for a Federal Reserve master account sparked opposition from banking industry groups.
• Lamborghini announced it will accept Bitcoin payments.
• On Polymarket, the probability of the “Clarity Act” being signed into law in 2026 rose to 72%.
March 9, 2026
Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Drive Oil Prices Higher, Stagflation Fears Weigh on Global Risk Assets
Summary
• Macro: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated further, with several oil companies announcing production cuts, pushing crude oil futures above $110. The surge in energy prices, combined with weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released Friday, intensified concerns that the global economy may slide into stagflation, significantly weakening market risk sentiment. As a result, U.S. and European equity futures declined across the board, while Japanese and Korean stock markets fell sharply at the Asian open.
• Crypto Market: Amid persistent macro uncertainty, risk appetite in the crypto market has contracted, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling back to single digits. Bitcoin dropped below $66,000, marking four consecutive days of losses. Bitcoin dominance also declined alongside price for the fourth straight day, while altcoins showed relative resilience during the correction.
Project Updates
Trending Tokens: DEGO, HUMA, PLUME
• DOT: The first U.S. spot Polkadot ETF, the 21Shares Polkadot ETF, has been listed on Nasdaq.
• ADA: Cardano’s ADA token is now accepted as a payment option at 137 Spar supermarkets in Switzerland.
• ACH: Alchemy Pay obtained a Money Transmitter License (MTL) in Delaware, expanding its regulatory footprint in the United States.
• SPK: The Spark lending platform has launched a token buyback program and has repurchased 1.84 million SPK tokens so far.
• WLFI: The WLFI governance staking proposal has opened for voting. In the future, participating in governance with unlocked WLFI tokens will require staking, with a minimum lock-up period of 180 days.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 8 (24h ago: 12) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• California will implement its Digital Asset Licensing Regulation, with the license application channel opening on March 9
• Cross-game digital asset exchange platform Nexira plans to conduct its Token Generation Event (TGE) on March 9
• MOVE token unlock: 5.18% of circulating supply (~$3.4 million)
Macroeconomic Developments
• Daylight Saving Time has begun in North America, moving U.S. and Canadian financial market trading hours and economic data releases one hour earlier.
• U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls: –92,000 (vs. expectation of +59,000).
• U.S. February Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (expected 4.3%, previous 4.3%).
• Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Kuwait Petroleum announced production cuts.
• Global oil prices rose 35.6% in a single week, breaking above $90, marking the largest weekly increase in history.
• South Korea is considering implementing an oil price cap system for the first time in 30 years.
• Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, has become Iran’s new Supreme Leader.
Crypto Policy
• The Central Bank of Russia proposed allowing banks and brokerage firms to obtain crypto trading licenses.
• Pakistan passed the Virtual Assets Act, establishing a national virtual asset regulatory authority.
• The White House released a U.S. cybersecurity strategy document, listing crypto and blockchain technologies as protected strategic technologies for the first time.
• The Florida Senate passed a stablecoin regulatory bill, clarifying the regulatory framework for payment stablecoins.
• The U.S. Treasury informed Congress that crypto mixers have legitimate privacy uses and suggested creating a temporary “freeze and hold” mechanism for suspicious crypto assets.
Industry Highlights
• Michael Saylor posted another Bitcoin Tracker update, potentially signaling a new BTC accumulation announcement next week.
• Nasdaq removed all restrictions on Bitcoin ETF access, allowing unlimited exposure.
• The National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to invest up to $350 million of reserve funds into crypto assets.
• BlackRock updated its Ethereum staking ETF filing, reducing the staking fee from 18% to 10%.
• Stablecoin transfer volume reached a record $1.8 trillion in February, with USDC accounting for about 70%.
Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Drive Oil Prices Higher, Stagflation Fears Weigh on Global Risk Assets
Summary
• Macro: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated further, with several oil companies announcing production cuts, pushing crude oil futures above $110. The surge in energy prices, combined with weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released Friday, intensified concerns that the global economy may slide into stagflation, significantly weakening market risk sentiment. As a result, U.S. and European equity futures declined across the board, while Japanese and Korean stock markets fell sharply at the Asian open.
• Crypto Market: Amid persistent macro uncertainty, risk appetite in the crypto market has contracted, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling back to single digits. Bitcoin dropped below $66,000, marking four consecutive days of losses. Bitcoin dominance also declined alongside price for the fourth straight day, while altcoins showed relative resilience during the correction.
Project Updates
Trending Tokens: DEGO, HUMA, PLUME
• DOT: The first U.S. spot Polkadot ETF, the 21Shares Polkadot ETF, has been listed on Nasdaq.
• ADA: Cardano’s ADA token is now accepted as a payment option at 137 Spar supermarkets in Switzerland.
• ACH: Alchemy Pay obtained a Money Transmitter License (MTL) in Delaware, expanding its regulatory footprint in the United States.
• SPK: The Spark lending platform has launched a token buyback program and has repurchased 1.84 million SPK tokens so far.
• WLFI: The WLFI governance staking proposal has opened for voting. In the future, participating in governance with unlocked WLFI tokens will require staking, with a minimum lock-up period of 180 days.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 8 (24h ago: 12) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• California will implement its Digital Asset Licensing Regulation, with the license application channel opening on March 9
• Cross-game digital asset exchange platform Nexira plans to conduct its Token Generation Event (TGE) on March 9
• MOVE token unlock: 5.18% of circulating supply (~$3.4 million)
Macroeconomic Developments
• Daylight Saving Time has begun in North America, moving U.S. and Canadian financial market trading hours and economic data releases one hour earlier.
• U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls: –92,000 (vs. expectation of +59,000).
• U.S. February Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (expected 4.3%, previous 4.3%).
• Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Kuwait Petroleum announced production cuts.
• Global oil prices rose 35.6% in a single week, breaking above $90, marking the largest weekly increase in history.
• South Korea is considering implementing an oil price cap system for the first time in 30 years.
• Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, has become Iran’s new Supreme Leader.
Crypto Policy
• The Central Bank of Russia proposed allowing banks and brokerage firms to obtain crypto trading licenses.
• Pakistan passed the Virtual Assets Act, establishing a national virtual asset regulatory authority.
• The White House released a U.S. cybersecurity strategy document, listing crypto and blockchain technologies as protected strategic technologies for the first time.
• The Florida Senate passed a stablecoin regulatory bill, clarifying the regulatory framework for payment stablecoins.
• The U.S. Treasury informed Congress that crypto mixers have legitimate privacy uses and suggested creating a temporary “freeze and hold” mechanism for suspicious crypto assets.
Industry Highlights
• Michael Saylor posted another Bitcoin Tracker update, potentially signaling a new BTC accumulation announcement next week.
• Nasdaq removed all restrictions on Bitcoin ETF access, allowing unlimited exposure.
• The National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to invest up to $350 million of reserve funds into crypto assets.
• BlackRock updated its Ethereum staking ETF filing, reducing the staking fee from 18% to 10%.
• Stablecoin transfer volume reached a record $1.8 trillion in February, with USDC accounting for about 70%.
March 10, 2026
Oil Price Volatility Disrupts Risk Markets, Bitcoin Rebounds Toward the $70K Level
Summary
• Macro: Escalating geopolitical tensions heightened concerns about potential long-term disruptions to the global energy supply chain, sending crude oil prices sharply higher and triggering a broad sell-off in global risk assets. However, market panic eased after G7 countries discussed the potential release of strategic petroleum reserves and Donald Trump stated that the conflict could end soon and that some oil-related sanctions may be lifted to help lower oil prices. As a result, crude oil retreated significantly from intraday highs, and risk assets rebounded rapidly.
• Crypto Market: Macro developments continued to dominate crypto market movements. Bitcoin largely tracked Nasdaq futures, rebounding after a lower open but facing notable resistance near $70,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance continued to rise, reaching 59.21%, indicating that capital is increasingly concentrating in major assets.
• Project Developments
◦ Trending tokens: BTC, ETH, HYPE
◦ HYPE: Amid geopolitical tensions, crude oil trading volume on Hyperliquid surged, with daily volume exceeding $1.2 billion.
◦ AAVE: The DeFi lending protocol Aave recorded approximately 155,000 monthly active users in February, a new all-time high.
◦ FLOW: Flow submitted a motion to a Seoul court requesting a suspension of the planned delisting on March 16 from major South Korean exchanges Upbit, Bithumb, and Coinone. FLOW rose 35% in the past 24 hours, with KRW trading volume accounting for over 55%.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 13 (vs. 8 twenty-four hours ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• TBD: Hong Kong plans to issue its first batch of stablecoin licenses in March; continued monitoring of developments in the Middle East.
Macro
• Donald Trump stated that military action against Iran would be a “short-term operation,” adding that the conflict may end soon, though not within this week, and that the situation is far from requiring troop deployment to Iran.
• Trump also said the U.S. may temporarily lift certain oil-related sanctions to help lower oil prices.
• Officials said G7 finance ministers have agreed not to release strategic petroleum reserves for now, but remain ready to take necessary measures to support global energy supply.
• Saudi Aramco lowered production at two oil fields.
Crypto Policy
• Bithumb may face a six-month suspension of new-user services for allegedly violating South Korea’s Special Financial Transactions Act.
Industry Highlights
• Strategy purchased 17,994 BTC last week for $1.28 billion, at an average price of about $70,946.
• Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock recorded over $1.1 billion in trading volume in a single week.
• BitMine increased its holdings by over 60,000 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to more than 4.53 million ETH.
• The 20 millionth Bitcoin has been mined.
• Bloomberg reported that Polymarket plans to launch binary options products linked to the S&P 500.
• Brazil’s central bank Pix has officially expanded to Argentina, enabling instant cross-border payments between the two countries.
• Stablecoin payment company KAST raised $80 million in funding.
Oil Price Volatility Disrupts Risk Markets, Bitcoin Rebounds Toward the $70K Level
Summary
• Macro: Escalating geopolitical tensions heightened concerns about potential long-term disruptions to the global energy supply chain, sending crude oil prices sharply higher and triggering a broad sell-off in global risk assets. However, market panic eased after G7 countries discussed the potential release of strategic petroleum reserves and Donald Trump stated that the conflict could end soon and that some oil-related sanctions may be lifted to help lower oil prices. As a result, crude oil retreated significantly from intraday highs, and risk assets rebounded rapidly.
• Crypto Market: Macro developments continued to dominate crypto market movements. Bitcoin largely tracked Nasdaq futures, rebounding after a lower open but facing notable resistance near $70,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance continued to rise, reaching 59.21%, indicating that capital is increasingly concentrating in major assets.
• Project Developments
◦ Trending tokens: BTC, ETH, HYPE
◦ HYPE: Amid geopolitical tensions, crude oil trading volume on Hyperliquid surged, with daily volume exceeding $1.2 billion.
◦ AAVE: The DeFi lending protocol Aave recorded approximately 155,000 monthly active users in February, a new all-time high.
◦ FLOW: Flow submitted a motion to a Seoul court requesting a suspension of the planned delisting on March 16 from major South Korean exchanges Upbit, Bithumb, and Coinone. FLOW rose 35% in the past 24 hours, with KRW trading volume accounting for over 55%.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 13 (vs. 8 twenty-four hours ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• TBD: Hong Kong plans to issue its first batch of stablecoin licenses in March; continued monitoring of developments in the Middle East.
Macro
• Donald Trump stated that military action against Iran would be a “short-term operation,” adding that the conflict may end soon, though not within this week, and that the situation is far from requiring troop deployment to Iran.
• Trump also said the U.S. may temporarily lift certain oil-related sanctions to help lower oil prices.
• Officials said G7 finance ministers have agreed not to release strategic petroleum reserves for now, but remain ready to take necessary measures to support global energy supply.
• Saudi Aramco lowered production at two oil fields.
Crypto Policy
• Bithumb may face a six-month suspension of new-user services for allegedly violating South Korea’s Special Financial Transactions Act.
Industry Highlights
• Strategy purchased 17,994 BTC last week for $1.28 billion, at an average price of about $70,946.
• Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock recorded over $1.1 billion in trading volume in a single week.
• BitMine increased its holdings by over 60,000 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to more than 4.53 million ETH.
• The 20 millionth Bitcoin has been mined.
• Bloomberg reported that Polymarket plans to launch binary options products linked to the S&P 500.
• Brazil’s central bank Pix has officially expanded to Argentina, enabling instant cross-border payments between the two countries.
• Stablecoin payment company KAST raised $80 million in funding.
March 12, 2026
Oil Reserve Release Fails to Ease Price Concerns, Bitcoin Continues to Consolidate Around $70K
Summary
• Macroeconomy: Despite the International Energy Agency announcing a record-scale oil reserve release plan, market concerns over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have not eased. Panic sentiment around oil prices continues to build, with crude oil rebounding in a V-shaped move after a brief pullback and once again surpassing $90 per barrel. The renewed rise in oil prices has pressured risk assets, leaving the three major U.S. stock indices mixed.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin largely moved in line with U.S. equity indices, consolidating around $70,000 and posting a 0.33% daily gain. The ETH/BTC exchange rate remained relatively stable, while Bitcoin’s market dominance held around 59%, suggesting risk appetite in the altcoin market remains cautious.
Project Developments
• Trending Tokens: PIXEL, ACX, ICP
• PIXEL (+46%): Open interest in derivatives surged to exceed its market capitalization, while funding rates remained negative, driving a short squeeze that pushed the price up 46%.
• ICP (+7%): Upbit listed Internet Computer, supporting KRW, BTC, and USDT trading pairs.
• ACX (+89%): Across Protocol is exploring a plan that would allow ACX holders to convert their tokens into equity.
• OSMO (+5%): Osmosis released a major governance proposal to potentially convert OSMO into ATOM.
• ZEC (-2%): Foundry Digital plans to launch a U.S.-based institutional-grade mining pool for Zcash.
• IMU (-0.4%): Anchorage Digital made a strategic investment in Immunefi.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 18 (vs. 15, 24 hours ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• Polkadot plans to implement an economic model reform starting March 12, limiting the total DOT supply to 2.1 billion.
• Aptos unlock: 0.69% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $10.5 million.
Macroeconomy
• U.S. February CPI (unadjusted YoY) came in at 2.4%, in line with expectations and the previous reading.
• IEA member states agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil, while the U.S. will release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Japan and Germany will also release reserves.
• Donald Trump stated that Iran has “almost no targets left to strike” and that the war with Iran will end soon.
Crypto Policy
• Hong Kong is expected to issue fewer than four initial stablecoin issuer licenses, with reports suggesting potential recipients including HSBC, Standard Chartered, and OSL.
• The chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation stated that stablecoins will not receive any form of deposit insurance under the GENIUS Act.
Industry Highlights
• The U.S. Department of Justice has launched an investigation into Iran allegedly using Binance to evade sanctions.
• Mastercard launched a new blockchain payments initiative, joined by PayPal and Ripple.
• Strategy recorded a record daily trading volume of $409 million.
• Metaplanet established two subsidiaries: one focused on the Japanese Bitcoin ecosystem, and another in the United States.
• Asset manager VanEck partnered with Basic Capital to include certain digital asset ETFs on its corporate 401(k) retirement platform.
Oil Reserve Release Fails to Ease Price Concerns, Bitcoin Continues to Consolidate Around $70K
Summary
• Macroeconomy: Despite the International Energy Agency announcing a record-scale oil reserve release plan, market concerns over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have not eased. Panic sentiment around oil prices continues to build, with crude oil rebounding in a V-shaped move after a brief pullback and once again surpassing $90 per barrel. The renewed rise in oil prices has pressured risk assets, leaving the three major U.S. stock indices mixed.
• Crypto Market: Bitcoin largely moved in line with U.S. equity indices, consolidating around $70,000 and posting a 0.33% daily gain. The ETH/BTC exchange rate remained relatively stable, while Bitcoin’s market dominance held around 59%, suggesting risk appetite in the altcoin market remains cautious.
Project Developments
• Trending Tokens: PIXEL, ACX, ICP
• PIXEL (+46%): Open interest in derivatives surged to exceed its market capitalization, while funding rates remained negative, driving a short squeeze that pushed the price up 46%.
• ICP (+7%): Upbit listed Internet Computer, supporting KRW, BTC, and USDT trading pairs.
• ACX (+89%): Across Protocol is exploring a plan that would allow ACX holders to convert their tokens into equity.
• OSMO (+5%): Osmosis released a major governance proposal to potentially convert OSMO into ATOM.
• ZEC (-2%): Foundry Digital plans to launch a U.S.-based institutional-grade mining pool for Zcash.
• IMU (-0.4%): Anchorage Digital made a strategic investment in Immunefi.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 18 (vs. 15, 24 hours ago) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
• Polkadot plans to implement an economic model reform starting March 12, limiting the total DOT supply to 2.1 billion.
• Aptos unlock: 0.69% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $10.5 million.
Macroeconomy
• U.S. February CPI (unadjusted YoY) came in at 2.4%, in line with expectations and the previous reading.
• IEA member states agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil, while the U.S. will release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Japan and Germany will also release reserves.
• Donald Trump stated that Iran has “almost no targets left to strike” and that the war with Iran will end soon.
Crypto Policy
• Hong Kong is expected to issue fewer than four initial stablecoin issuer licenses, with reports suggesting potential recipients including HSBC, Standard Chartered, and OSL.
• The chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation stated that stablecoins will not receive any form of deposit insurance under the GENIUS Act.
Industry Highlights
• The U.S. Department of Justice has launched an investigation into Iran allegedly using Binance to evade sanctions.
• Mastercard launched a new blockchain payments initiative, joined by PayPal and Ripple.
• Strategy recorded a record daily trading volume of $409 million.
• Metaplanet established two subsidiaries: one focused on the Japanese Bitcoin ecosystem, and another in the United States.
• Asset manager VanEck partnered with Basic Capital to include certain digital asset ETFs on its corporate 401(k) retirement platform.