Plan shared with the traders earlier in the week, all live

Tomorrow we continue with Jackson Hole and there is a Powell speech which is again is likely to move the markets. We're going to leave this group here having completed our plan for the week. Tomorrow is a Camelot day where we'll sit back and only if we get another decent entry we'll enter the markets, otherwise we have trades running and hopefully tomorrow we'll complete the week with another full house of completed TPs.

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Daily plan and analysis
KOG's bias of the week/day with targets

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Much of trading is about mindset and psychology, then discipline, money management and patience etc. That's 70-80% of your game. When focus shifts to just targets, mindset is adjusted, almost like tunnel vision, you're seeing one thing ahead and ignoring your peripheral vision. Nothing wrong with asking how to trade towards a target, but asking how to trade the target is what the question most are after. That can only be answered by you! How much chart time are you putting in, are you identifying the key levels, the trends, the ranges. Where is the target? At resistance, support, top or bottom of the trend? Most of you will find the answer you're looking for on this server.

If we focus more on the process, then add the target you'll see how much easier it becomes. Focus on the target without the process, that results in confusion. What I used to do is work backwards from Excalibur, identify the target, then look at the structure, then plot the levels of interest, trends etc. Then sit and wait, "Excalibur usually always gives a pull back or retracement". Support and resistance then come into play, no matter whether there is a trend or a range, within it will be support and resistance levels. That's your area of interest and potential entry point.

Greed and fear, these are your two biggest demons in this game. The only way around this is to have your strategy, your rules, your strict risk model and your plan. Then, trade it like a robot! Don't look at the money, don't try and get rich quick, small calculated losses and wins, that's what will make the difference. Some of you are trying to trade everything on every candle. When it goes against you, you're quiet, when it goes your way you're spamming the group with the success. Nothing out of the normal here, this is new traders mindset, the market has programmed you to take the little and be happy with it, and miss the big and not talk about it. Once you realise this is a serious game and the market has humbled you, you'll share your trades less and your thoughts more. Think about it. KOG

If a 30pip drawdown makes you stress and put's your account under pressure, sorry, give up on this dream! Certain things I'm not going to sugar coat. The game is hard team, social media has made you think you can give up your 9-5 and become rich with your £100 accounts.

Don't be that trader, that's 95% of them out there holding on to someone who will give them the secret recipe, the signals that will retire their parents and buy them a house while they spend their days driving up to the marina in their Lamborghini for the afternoon yacht party.

Learn how to trade! How do we know it works, because we've created traders through this process, we're not herding sheep. It works because I've seen people leave this server as successful traders. It works because we have full time traders who are also sharing their knowledge and trade ideas and are here to be part of a community. Put in the work, start with your discipline and your ability to read what the market is telling you.

See you on Sunday for the KOG Report. Wishing you all a great weekend ahead. KOG

Summary:

The anticipation surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is high, particularly regarding signals on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. Investors are primarily focused on two key aspects:

Timing and Magnitude of the First Rate Cut: Investors are eager to know when the Fed might initiate its first rate cut and by how much. The market is leaning towards the possibility that Powell may hint at a potential rate cut as early as September. However, there is a general expectation that Powell might avoid giving a clear indication of the exact magnitude of this initial cut.

Aggressiveness of Subsequent Easing: There is also significant interest in how aggressive the Fed will be with rate cuts following the first one. However, it is anticipated that Powell will refrain from making strong commitments about a prolonged easing cycle. Instead, he is likely to emphasize the Fed's data-dependent approach, suggesting that future rate decisions will hinge on incoming economic data.

Regarding market reactions, expectations are already dovish. US rates investors are pricing in more than a 65% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September and foresee around 100 basis points of cuts by the end of the year. If Powell confirms a September cut but remains vague about the future rate path, this could disappoint markets that are expecting more definitive guidance. However, a significant reassessment by the markets of the Fed's rate path would be necessary for the US dollar to regain strength.

In essence, while the speech could confirm an imminent rate cut, the lack of aggressive forward guidance might lead to a tempered market reaction, as investors have already set high expectations for dovishness.