We're still ranging like we did yesterday. 1770-75 is holding as support as is the ascending trendline on the 4H and 1H timeframes. However, as we've said in our earlier analysis, we would not rule out a deeper pullback before this goes higher.

It looks like FOMC will be the catalyst, unless we get movement over the US session later.

In scenarios like this its best to observe the markets and plan the trades you want to take after the event. Trying to trade leading up to a big event is risky. Unless you're scalping with tight stop losses.

We're running behind schedule today. We're going to be back in an hour or so with our thoughts for FOMC

Please don't just enter into positions without thought and a plan.

Gold seems to be following our initial analysis on Sunday where we were expecting it to pullback into lower levels before resuming its journey to higher pricing. We still have 3 KOG targets, 1797-99 and 1810-13 above, as well as 1720 below. We’re waiting for a good opportunity to short this to the lower levels, however, we can see this potentially going up first. We want to be in that long trade as long as we get good support below.

So, we’re looking for support at the following levels:

1758-61
1749-52
Below that 1737-35 (this would complete what is a potential H&S on the 1H and 4H timeframes)

Our resistance levels:

1770
1775
1785
1795-98 (KOG TARGET)
1801-5
1810-13 (KOG TARGET)

Our plan is to let this play out for the rest of the day, as usual we’ll analyse the markets and different pairs 30-45mins before the release of the minutes to look for clues as to which direction we think its going to go first. Unless this goes straight up, we want to find a good level to test the long trade for the KOG targets above. Around 1790-1810 we will be looking to exit these positions. Our view will then turn towards the bearish side. We’ll update you as we go along.

FOMC is later today so it is advisable not to trade until after the event unless you’re an experienced trader. The market will be looking for clues during the press conference so we may experience a couple of hours of volatility. We may even see volatility during the US session which will be opening soon. Please trade safely, use a stop loss, trade small lots and be sensible. Remember, cash is also a position in the markets, you don’t have to trade every day, the money in your trading account isn’t going to disappear if you don’t trade it.

FOMC 3mins

Its very choppy on the smaller timeframes, its given us Excalibur signals upwards but when its like this the pullbacks can be extreme. Unless this breaks and holds below 1750 we would still remain bullish on it

We have the following KOG targets:

1792
1795-97
1810-12

Below:
1754
1720
1640

Members, remember tomorrow is the last trading day of the month. The price has consolidated enough and a breakout looks imminent. We're expecting NYSE to have an impact, if not, tomorrow a lot of traders will want to come out of positions so the price can be very choppy. If you go back through our analysis you'll find the accumulation chart which gives you an idea of how the market plays buyers and sellers in a ranging market.

Before:

After:

We were expecting this to pullback into our levels identified. However, we're concerned that it hasn't broken out, it's started ranging instead, especially as its the monthly close and a Friday. The previous levels still apply but remember its a long weekend in the UK on Monday.

We wouldn't advise to enter any trades unless you entered earlier on the wick down. That long should be in profit but we suggest you protect it

We can not emphasise this enough, if you're a new trader please try to exercise patience in the markets during this time. There's a reason we haven't shared our trades a lot this week and its because we can see some extreme moves coming in the following days. We don't want anyone here to get stuck. You'll thank us next week hopefully

A small range last week which enabled us to scalp the markets up and down on the smaller timeframes. Looking at the weekly we can see the price is struggling to break above the trendline resistance which tell us next week we may see the price attempt to challenge the lower support levels.
1760-65 has proven to be a strong support last week and we managed to close a fraction above it. We want to see how this holds on market open and breaking this level will result in a deeper pullback, which we were expecting last week.

We still have our Excalibur targets of 1795-97 and then 1808-12 so for now we will remain in the direction of the short-term trend. We also have our lower levels of 1720 and below that 1647, however, we feel the market isn't ready for the drop yet. We'll analyse the lower timeframes and wait for the market to open which will give us a better idea and help us plan for the week.

We’ve kept the same support levels as last week as they haven’t changed much due to the ranging market we experienced last week. It’s a new month, however we have a UK holiday on Monday so expecting there to be low volume in the markets. It will be an interesting month as

Support:

1768
1751-48
1736

Resistance:

1782
1794/5
1806-10
1820-25
1850-60

On the daily chart we can see we ranged in our identified area from last week. Although we don’t rely on trendlines we can see how the daily trendline is resisting the price in a strong way. In order for the price to hit our targets this trendline will need to show weakness at some point and break to the upside. For this reason we’re expecting that deeper pullback into next week before the resumption of the rise. This all depends on the how the early part of the week plays out, which we will be monitoring and updating as we go along.

Our key level here is the 1745-50 region, breaking this will result in the price going lower to our previous level of around 1730-35. We’re thinking this is potentially the turning point.

Last week we didn’t take many Gold trades because of the range it was in. We were expecting this to move to our targets but the accumulation was a little prolonged.