Perfect backtest of the breakout and rejection. Gold is moving just as we planned this morning. Now we're look for 2 levels to hold as resistance, 1720 and 1730.

Yesterdays trade idea.

We're facing strong support here around the 1710-08 level. Its also a very recent triple bottom so it looks like at some point the price is going to try and test the resistance levels above.

A good sign is that Gold closed below 1720 which maintains the negative pressure. However, that is still a resistance level that needs to hold. We have a lower target now of around 1675-80. We want to get in on a good retracement and catch that trade. It doesn't look like its ready yet, there will be a lot of buy orders going in and a lot of sellers holding for lower levels so expect a bit of a shake out in the coming sessions.

Levels are on the chart

We're accumulating at the moment and may well do so for the the rest of today. We're anticipating a breakout at some point. Not in any trades at the moment apart from small scalps up and down. We'll update you all when we see a good set up and confirmation of direction short-term.

Daily. We have to be really careful here and make sure we don't get stuck the wrong way in a new short-term trend. As you can see on the hourly we have a triple bottom, we're also at the bottom of a long-term trend on the daily. A technical retracement is due but this is Gold we're talking about. For reference only.

We seem to be inside a descending triangle on the M30 chart. This kind of pattern is most of the time a continuation pattern which should mean the price will continue down. However, even though we can see sellers are strong in this range, they are failing to break the triangle bottom resulting in the triple bottom on the 1H timeframe.

We're keeping an eye on this, when it breaks the price is likely to move fast. Market seems to be waiting for US open and Powells speech later today. Also NFP tomorrow so there's a chance this breaks and they price in NFP before the actual numbers are released.

As always, trade safe.

15M. If you remember, the last time we spoke about triangles we said they tend to give false signals in the first instance, they'll break one way then go the opposite. We've broken up and price is trying to break back in. Lets see if it tests the bottom again.

This could also be the retest of the break, candle closes in 2mins

As you're aware, we don't give signals, only share trade ideas and analysis. We will always give clues though, they're all in the messages, you just need to read through them. If you were scalping today that was a perfect trade.

Gold is trying to break 1700

Please read the message.

DXY Target reached. It took its sweet time but finally its filled the gap

We have NFP this afternoon so we will remain neutral for now. The chart isn't suggesting any bullishness as yet so we'll wait for the numbers to get released and then decide what we're going to do. We'll share a chart with our thoughts in about an hour. If a high probability trade presents itself we'll also share that. If you're not in any positions at the moment its advisable to remain that way until after NFP and the market has settled.

This is where we stand at the moment. We don't think Gold is done with the flush as yet. Next week we may turn bullish short-term but we have a target lower down which also coincides with the potential 1H trend its in. Lets see where we close today.

We didn't trade today, we'll wait until Monday before getting back into the markets.

Wishing everyone a great weekend. See you on Sunday for our weekly overview and charts.

As always, trade safe.

Knights of Gold

As we’ve previously said, this stopped being a bullflag a long time ago. The trend goes back to the beginning of the last bull run. Traders will all have different interpretations of the chart and its trend, supply/demand etc, this is just our view.
We’ve broken out of the previous trendline which was retested and confirmed the bull trend in March 2020.

I would expect there to be some for or retracement over the coming days. A lot of buyers will have come in to buy the dip again last week so we may see a spike down to trigger some stops.
We’ve extended the downtrend line to show we are still in the trend, however, we have a confirmed weekly close and market open below the uptrend support which could possible now become resistance.
A retest is very likely so a good target for longs.

Support:
1685
1655-50
1645

Resistance:
1705
1720
1745-50

The reason for the boxes. Its not often you get 3 black crows on a weekly chart. Previously it was November 2020 where we formed the candlestick pattern.

As we analysed on the weekly chart, there is still room to go lower before we go higher to fulfil the retracement we’re looking for.
For this reason, on opening we will remain neutral in the markets until we have a confirmed setup on the lower timeframes for a trade.
It wouldn’t surprise us to see a glitch on opening due to the news release, as always it should respect the technical levels.

We have a level on this chart that sticks out which is situated at 1748 and a lower level 1675-1667.

Support:
1675
1664-66
1640

Resistance:
1721
1730
1745-50