Its a simple one this week as we want to pay more attention to the market when it opens.

Use the levels for support and resistance which have been published on the group. Please also read the Weekly analysis which has already been posted for a longer term view on Gold.

We'll be back in the morning for the early sessions.

Wishing everyone a successful weeks trading ahead.

KOG

Gold gave us a nice trade down and then up again yesterday as we assumed on the daily KOG report. We're holding 50% of our longs with the stop at entry waiting for the price to resume a little more bullish behaviour.

We're looking for support below and what looks like the formation of a IHS on the hourly. The arrows indicate what we're looking for today. We're expecting the price levels of 1877 and above that 1880. These levels need to hold as resistance in order for the bears to maintain control on the downward move. Breaking support below and we are likely going to see the lower levels of 1835 and below that 1820-10. Support here would represent a good buying opportunity in our view.

We have an Excalibur indication of more bearish pressure to we're keeping an eye on the above levels.

KOG

Members:

We have some big events in the coming sessions. Especially tomorrow with FOMC. We're going to be scanning the markets putting together our analysis for the coming week and share what we are expecting to happen. Other pairs are moving quite aggressively so lets see what the US session has in store for us.

As always, trade safe. When coming up to big events like this its best to trade a little smaller than you usually would as Gold is known to extremely choppy and the movements can throw you off.

DXY 4H -

This is what we need to be really careful of. Excalibur has left us a very bearish target on DXY. DXY is in an ascending wedge so can break either way. Because of that target we're assuming any break up would be a false breakout which could give Gold a chance to find an intermediate bottom. We're monitoring this closely and it seems that FOMC could be a bit of a trigger tomorrow. Now we know there is a correlation between Gold and the DXY, however, they can move in the same direction as we've seen a lot in the past. Its something to keep an eye on if you're trading Gold. As always we'll update the group regularly on its progress.

XAUUSD Update:

Reminder of levels for your charts.

Gold is playing in a tight range its its right in the middle of our liquidity box. Looks like its gathering enough orders in both directions before it makes its move. In scenarios like this its even hard to scalp as the price action is so choppy. It will spike up and down within the range triggering orders and stops.

We've added the fib. You can see where its accumulating and wicking. Please refer to our previous posts in this group where we've drawn out an accumulation chart to show you how the price behaves in this kind of tight range.

This is the area we were expecting the bounce. Lets see if it holds

XAUUSD -1H

We're out of this for now. Want to see if this tests the low from yesterday. We won't enter anymore now as its the end of the day and FOMC tomorrow.

The statement at 19:00GMT will cause some volatility, however its the press conference at 19:30 which will create the drama.

We're putting together our analysis this morning on what we think is going to happen. We'll share it here shortly.

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/lfQVz4Wi-GOLD-FOMC-KOG-Report/

FOMC KOG REPORT published on TradingView for those who want an early preview.

Your likes and comments are very much appreciated 🙏

This is the chart. Full breakdown is available on TradingView. DXY analysis will be posted later. No one can determine the exact movement of price, we can only analyse enough to get a high probability of what we think is going to happen. We would advise as usual, anyone with less than a years trading experience please don't trade these events. Its better to wait for it to be over and let the market settle.

Anyone who's wandering. Our KOG targets from previous charts are still active. This is just the FOMC review applicable for today and tomorrow.

As always, trade safe.

KOG

FOMC -

We've entered a small lot here. Stick to the STOP LOSS if you follow. If this closes below the level it will leave buyers hanging and go lower. SMALL LOTS, STICK TO SL if you follow

SL HIT. We're out. We said we'll take one shot at it and it didn't work out. We'll wait for Excalibur to give us confirmation tomorrow.

Thankfully we took that SL where it was. Insane drop on Gold.

KOG Weekly Chart:

We would expect some retracement on the price after yesterdays bearish move down. Our weekly chart is showing there is still a lower level of around 1794-6 which is a key weekly level. The price can still go lower to this level before turning back to correct some of the move from yesterday. The concerning thing here for us is we now have KOG targets above and below which tells us Gold isn't ready to settle any time soon. For this reason we'll trade the daily Excalibur targets until we get confirmation of the new trend.

We're going to share the 4H chart which shows the break of trend and what could possibly be the start of a new short term bearish trend on Gold which could lead us to the lower KOG targets first before turning back up.

4H -

This lines up nicely with the weekly 1794-6 price level which was also the Apr/May accumulation and then the breakout towards 1900.

So we have 2 key support levels here:

1794-6 and below that is around 1760

Key resistance levels:

1813 and above that 1830.

This gives us a short term range and also an idea of turning points for gold

Our plan for today:

We took a stop loss on the long trade we took last night with a small loss. Now we're going to wait for Excalibur to give us a clear indication of which way the market wants to move short term. A level of 1820 has been identified but we would rather wait for a strong support to form around here. Because of that level of 1794 its possible the US session will push the price lower before correcting some of the move from yesterday. Right now we're sitting neutral and will share our trade just before the US session starts

KOG Update:

1H –

After the FOMC move down breaking 1800 we can now see the formation of a double bottom on the hourly. Excalibur is suggesting the move down for this week at least is over with. It hasn’t left us any sell signals apart from the previous ones below at 1720 and 1647. We have to keep in mind we also have the targets above at 1908 and 1917 so for this reason we’re going to trade intraday until we get confirmation of a new trend and direction short-term. Right now we’re looking for support to form back at the 1785 level which needs to hold. We have an indication of a move further up towards the 1802-5 levels which could happen during the US session. Technically this should correct some of the FOMC movement so a 1800 challenge seems feasible.

Levels are on the chart so please add these intraday levels along with the Daily levels we’re going to publish next.

In scenarios like this where the price action looks uncertain its best to trade it level to level and have a strict stop loss policy in place. Excalibur gave us a long signal which has now hit its target, we do know that after an Excalibur target is hit it usually pulls back a bit so keep an eye on that support level below. If 1802-5 acts as resistance today then its likely this will come back down to test the low and potentially open up the lower levels of 1750 and then the KOG target of 1720. For now we’ll take longs for the retracement and short capture, however, we shall remain short on this unless it breaks 1830 and holds above it. Its Friday so try not to enter any trades after the US session unless the setup is there, which we will share with you if it arises. Don’t get stuck in trades over the weekend, we want to see how this weekly candle closes today and ideally start Fresh on Monday.