No need to panic..! This was bound to happen. 🤞🏻✅

This chart is important for us to act 🤞🏻✅

#CNXSMALLCAP
Understanding the direction is important, I am not at all excited by the oversold bounce of the market. This is structure on daily chart.

Levels to consider deployment 14400-14600.

#NIFTY
Nifty - 22000-22200 leg downside. Now not much room left for downside.

Once we reach these levels - we can then expected this correction to end and market reversal. We will get clear picture by this month end.

Good Morning!!

Have patience - We are almost there. 14400-14600 - CNXSMALLCAP

Market Perspective — Understand the Phase 📊

We all know the kind of pain the market is putting everyone through right now and the reality is, everyone is in the same boat. 😅🤞🏻

But if you step back and observe objectively, the market is currently undergoing a major value correction.

It is very important not to get carried away by external noise - whether it’s negative news flow, geopolitical tensions, or war headlines. These factors may increase the intensity of the correction, but they are not the reason behind it.

This correction was long overdue. 📉

Now, if we rely on data and historical market behavior, there are strong indications that we are approaching the bottom phase:

✅ Nearly 80% of stocks are trading below their 200-day moving average — this is a classic sign of capitulation / panic zones

✅ The 40-day advance-decline ratio is at one of the worst readings — historically a contrarian signal for bottom formation

✅ FII positioning shows 85–90% net short exposure — which can lead to:
→ Panic bottom
→ Followed by sharp short covering rally

✅ If you study breadth and diffusion indicators, almost every indicator is at extreme bearish levels
→ When everything turns bearish together, it usually signals exhaustion, not continuation

✅ If we compare Gold vs Nifty / Gold vs Smallcap, equities have already seen a massive value correction in real terms
→ This makes equities one of the most attractive asset classes currently

✅ Also, from a time-cycle perspective, markets typically correct for 500–600 days, and we are already within that window

Putting all of this together, the data strongly suggests that we are very close to a market bottom — possibly within 1–3 weeks.

However, one final phase is often required — the flush out of weak hands.

For that, markets typically break key psychological and technical levels, triggering panic and forced selling. Based on current structure:

🎯 Small Cap Index: Critical zone at 14,400 – 14,600
🎯 Nifty: Critical zone at 21,800 – 22,000

A breakdown below these levels can:

✅ Trigger final capitulation
✅ Create ideal risk-reward for FIIs to cover shorts
✅ Mark the formation of a durable bottom

So understand the game.

Don’t get trapped in headlines, war panic, or noise-driven sentiment. Markets move on structure, positioning, and liquidity — not emotions.

This is not the phase to panic. This is the phase to prepare, observe, and gradually position for the next cycle.

Thank you.

Tomorrow we might see a good day. But again major trend is not changed yet.

Understand one simple thing — markets don’t bottom out quietly. They bottom out in panic.

Right now, what we’re seeing is just noise. Every day there’s some news — one day positive, one day negative — and the market is just reacting to that with gap ups and gap downs. This kind of behaviour is very normal in uncertain or war-like situations. High volatility, no clear direction.

But this is not how a real bottom is formed.

A proper bottom comes when there is fear everywhere — when people start giving up, when there’s forced selling, when it feels like the market will keep falling. We haven’t seen that kind of panic yet.

So what should we do?

Honestly, not much.

If you have good trades, it makes sense to book profits instead of getting caught in this volatility. And when it comes to deploying fresh money — better to wait. No need to rush in the middle of this noise.

Let the market settle, let the panic come, and then we act.

For now, the levels to watch remain the same:
Smallcap Index around 14,600–14,800
Nifty around 21,800–22,000

Till then, patience is the edge.

You know what I did in this phase — if I was holding positions that were already in loss, I chose to exit them before the market corrected further by 8–9%.

Now the same stocks are available at 15–25% lower prices, and I’m looking to re-enter them again.

This is also a practical approach in such markets.

Earlier, for example, if I had deployed around ₹2 lakhs, today I can get the same quantity in roughly ₹1.5 lakhs. So effectively, I’m reducing my cost and improving my overall positioning.

But this works only when done with clarity — not out of panic. The idea is to exit weak positions early and re-enter them at better valuations, not to keep buying blindly in a falling market.

In volatile phases like this, capital efficiency matters just as much as stock selection.

Also, at this point, sharing stock names doesn’t really make sense.
I already have my watchlist ready, everything is planned, analysed, and filtered. These are the stocks I’ll be focusing on once the market gives a proper bottom.

But the reason I’m not sharing anything right now is simple I don’t want anyone to buy emotionally or based on sentiment. In phases like this, that usually leads to wrong entries.
Buying should always be structured and systematic not driven by fear of missing out or random conviction.

Once the correction is done and the market starts giving clarity, we’ll again get clean setups and strong opportunities.
Be prepared for that phase.
You’ll get a solid watchlist and proper setups to act on at the right time.

Activity today. We were already expecting this. 🤞

Now the question is — how do we track when the market is actually ready to reverse, and when the bottom is forming?

There are a few key things I’m personally watching.

First is Brent crude oil. It needs to cool off. As long as crude stays elevated, it keeps pressure on the overall market sentiment.

Second is USD/INR. We need to see some relief here. Ideally, the rupee should start strengthening — we should see USD/INR cooling down towards the 88–90 zone, or even lower. That would signal stability coming back.

Third, and most important — liquidity sweep in the market. We need to see a proper breakdown of key levels for a day or two, where stops get hunted and weak hands exit. That kind of move usually creates the base for a reversal.

So overall, just focus on these three things for now:
• USD/INR movement
• Brent crude oil behaviour
• Market sweeping key levels and liquidity

Once these start aligning, we can start thinking about the market bottoming out.

I know this may not sound good to everyone, but I’m not here to be liked. I’m here to give you a clear view of what’s actually happening in the market.

If you look at the last few days, the market is behaving exactly in line with what we discussed.

Today again, crude prices have moved up, and we’ve seen a negative reaction in the market. On top of that, FIIs were net sellers yesterday by more than ₹8,000 crore, that’s not normal selling, that’s aggressive distribution.

So understand the environment we are in, this is not a stable or bullish phase right now.

Just to be very clear, I am not against the idea of a bull market. I’m equally bullish for the long term.
But the key question is when that bull phase resumes and that’s what we need to focus on.
Right now, I’m simply going with what the market is showing, not what I want it to do.

Also, try to rely more on charts than on news. News should only be considered if it makes sense and aligns with price action. Now, most of the news flow is just creating confusion.
Take recent global cues for example sudden statements around geopolitical situations keep changing the sentiment.
One day there’s positive news, markets rally sharply. Next day, negative headlines come in, and markets fall again.
But if you step back and look at the bigger picture the US markets had already seen a strong rally earlier, and what we’re witnessing now is more of a corrective phase with profit booking. In such phases,
it’s very normal to see frequent negative news flow, with occasional good news triggering temporary pullbacks.

Technically speaking, what we saw recently was not a trend reversal.
In indices (especially F&O driven), it was largely a short covering rally.
And in stocks, many were deeply oversold, so we saw a bounce from oversold zones.

But overall, the market is still in a sell-on-rise structure.
One important thing to understand a real trend change doesn’t happen like this.

We need to see:
• Strong buying coming from a clear demand zone (the actual bottom)
• Followed by a change in structure
Right now, the structure is still lower top, lower bottom.
The moment this shift to higher top, higher bottom, that’s when the real bull phase begins.

And once that happens no one can stop the next bull market. Mark that.