Key overhangs influencing market behavior include:
1. Potential impact of Trump-era tariff discussions resurfacing
2. The upcoming Union Budget
3. Slightly elevated market valuations
4. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and wars
5. Q3 earnings season and forward guidance
6. Rupee Depreciation
Absorbing and pricing in these factors is not a quick process. Historically, such macro and fundamental variables take at least 3–4 months to settle and reflect clearly in price action.
In this phase, our focus should shift from broad index-level expectations to sectoral charts that are technically positioned to resume or initiate an uptrend. Trade setups should be aligned strictly with these stronger sectors, where relative strength and structure are favorable.
Patience remains the key. Avoid impulsive positioning, respect risk management, and continue to trust disciplined setups. Markets reward preparation and conviction far more than reaction.
1. Potential impact of Trump-era tariff discussions resurfacing
2. The upcoming Union Budget
3. Slightly elevated market valuations
4. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and wars
5. Q3 earnings season and forward guidance
6. Rupee Depreciation
Absorbing and pricing in these factors is not a quick process. Historically, such macro and fundamental variables take at least 3–4 months to settle and reflect clearly in price action.
In this phase, our focus should shift from broad index-level expectations to sectoral charts that are technically positioned to resume or initiate an uptrend. Trade setups should be aligned strictly with these stronger sectors, where relative strength and structure are favorable.
Patience remains the key. Avoid impulsive positioning, respect risk management, and continue to trust disciplined setups. Markets reward preparation and conviction far more than reaction.
Markets Don’t Reward Stories. They Reward Timing, Valuations, and Discipline.
In 2025, markets were driven largely by narratives rather than by price discipline.
Investors were sold powerful optimism: India will become the third-largest economy, there is no better place to invest than India, and this is a once-in-a-lifetime, now-or-never opportunity.
The critical point most ignored was valuation.
These optimistic stories were aggressively promoted when market valuations were already stretched, risk-reward had deteriorated, and expectations were priced far ahead of fundamentals. What followed was not surprising. A broad-based correction played out through the year as excesses were unwound and markets reverted to fair value.
Fast forward to today in 2026, and the narrative has completely reversed.
Now we are sold stories of wars, tariffs, global uncertainty, potential crashes, and doubts over India’s growth trajectory. Fear has replaced euphoria, even though valuations are far more reasonable and price structures are stabilizing in several pockets of the market.
This is how market cycles function.
Optimism is sold near tops.
Fear is sold near bottoms.
Smart money does not buy into stories at expensive levels, nor does it exit quality assets during corrections. It accumulates when valuations normalize, expectations reset, and risk-reward improves.
As market participants, our role is not to trade headlines.
Our role is to identify strong sectors, quality stocks, and high-probability technical setups backed by price action and institutional behavior.
We are here to buy setups, not stories.
Narratives will keep changing, but price, structure, and risk-reward always tell the real story.
Those who focus on discipline rather than emotions are the ones who benefit when the cycle turns.
In 2025, markets were driven largely by narratives rather than by price discipline.
Investors were sold powerful optimism: India will become the third-largest economy, there is no better place to invest than India, and this is a once-in-a-lifetime, now-or-never opportunity.
The critical point most ignored was valuation.
These optimistic stories were aggressively promoted when market valuations were already stretched, risk-reward had deteriorated, and expectations were priced far ahead of fundamentals. What followed was not surprising. A broad-based correction played out through the year as excesses were unwound and markets reverted to fair value.
Fast forward to today in 2026, and the narrative has completely reversed.
Now we are sold stories of wars, tariffs, global uncertainty, potential crashes, and doubts over India’s growth trajectory. Fear has replaced euphoria, even though valuations are far more reasonable and price structures are stabilizing in several pockets of the market.
This is how market cycles function.
Optimism is sold near tops.
Fear is sold near bottoms.
Smart money does not buy into stories at expensive levels, nor does it exit quality assets during corrections. It accumulates when valuations normalize, expectations reset, and risk-reward improves.
As market participants, our role is not to trade headlines.
Our role is to identify strong sectors, quality stocks, and high-probability technical setups backed by price action and institutional behavior.
We are here to buy setups, not stories.
Narratives will keep changing, but price, structure, and risk-reward always tell the real story.
Those who focus on discipline rather than emotions are the ones who benefit when the cycle turns.
#GROWW is prepared for IPO base breakout
Key levels
Demand Zone 160-165
Upside after breakout 200-250
Stoploss 155
We can see good upside after closing above 170
Key levels
Demand Zone 160-165
Upside after breakout 200-250
Stoploss 155
We can see good upside after closing above 170
👍3
#IFCI
IFCI shares surged 26% in one week following SEBI Chairman's indication that NSE IPO approval may come this month. IFCI benefits from its 52% stake in SHCIL, which holds 4.4% in NSE, creating indirect exposure worth approximately ₹12,000 crores. SEBI is in advanced stages of issuing NOC for NSE's long-awaited IPO, with government approving 2.5% stake dilution.
IFCI shares have experienced a remarkable rally, surging 26% over the past week amid growing expectations that the National Stock Exchange IPO may finally receive regulatory approval. The smallcap PSU stock jumped over 10% to ₹62.56 on BSE during morning trading, though it remains down 1% over the last six months.
Source - Scanx
IFCI shares surged 26% in one week following SEBI Chairman's indication that NSE IPO approval may come this month. IFCI benefits from its 52% stake in SHCIL, which holds 4.4% in NSE, creating indirect exposure worth approximately ₹12,000 crores. SEBI is in advanced stages of issuing NOC for NSE's long-awaited IPO, with government approving 2.5% stake dilution.
IFCI shares have experienced a remarkable rally, surging 26% over the past week amid growing expectations that the National Stock Exchange IPO may finally receive regulatory approval. The smallcap PSU stock jumped over 10% to ₹62.56 on BSE during morning trading, though it remains down 1% over the last six months.
Source - Scanx
Only Positional Community
#IFCI IFCI shares surged 26% in one week following SEBI Chairman's indication that NSE IPO approval may come this month. IFCI benefits from its 52% stake in SHCIL, which holds 4.4% in NSE, creating indirect exposure worth approximately ₹12,000 crores. SEBI…
Understand the #GAME, the fall for just for stoploss hunting.
One can consider trimming gains at these levels. Personally, I captured around 220% upside. I’ve booked partial profits and continue to hold a portion of the position for further potential upside.
India Budget 2026 is clearly capex-focused, which remains structurally positive for the economy and long-term market growth. One short-term negative has been the increase in STT, which has added some pressure on market sentiment.
Irrespective of these near-term concerns, Indian markets when compared to gold, silver, and other emerging markets are now relatively cheaper in valuation terms. In fact, if we look at other emerging markets, many of them have already delivered the returns that were anticipated.
Over the last one and a half years, Indian markets have largely gone through a phase of time and valuation correction, allowing excesses to cool off while fundamentals continued to improve. This has helped create a healthier base for the next move.
Irrespective of these near-term concerns, Indian markets when compared to gold, silver, and other emerging markets are now relatively cheaper in valuation terms. In fact, if we look at other emerging markets, many of them have already delivered the returns that were anticipated.
Over the last one and a half years, Indian markets have largely gone through a phase of time and valuation correction, allowing excesses to cool off while fundamentals continued to improve. This has helped create a healthier base for the next move.
From a technical standpoint, the market is currently undergoing a healthy corrective phase within a larger uptrend. Momentum has cooled, prices are gradually approaching higher-timeframe demand zones, and markets are yet to fully test patience during February and March.
We expect markets to complete this correction and form a bottom by mid-March. Once this base is formed, April onwards should see a strong upside momentum, supported by improving market structure and participation.
There is nothing to worry about at this stage. This is a phase of patience and preparation.
I will start sharing stock names as and when the market becomes ready and conditions turn favorable for fresh buying.
We expect markets to complete this correction and form a bottom by mid-March. Once this base is formed, April onwards should see a strong upside momentum, supported by improving market structure and participation.
There is nothing to worry about at this stage. This is a phase of patience and preparation.
I will start sharing stock names as and when the market becomes ready and conditions turn favorable for fresh buying.
👍6❤1
Today’s move is largely a reaction to the trade deal news rather than a genuine structural shift in the indices. The overall market structure remains unchanged, and a sustainable bullish setup will require more time to develop.
I have booked partial profits in positions that benefited from the gap-up opening. From here, I expect gap-filling / gap-covering action, which should help prices rebalance and stabilize before any meaningful directional move emerges.
Until the structure improves, it’s prudent to remain selective and manage risk tightly rather than chase momentum.
I have booked partial profits in positions that benefited from the gap-up opening. From here, I expect gap-filling / gap-covering action, which should help prices rebalance and stabilize before any meaningful directional move emerges.
Until the structure improves, it’s prudent to remain selective and manage risk tightly rather than chase momentum.
❤2