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Islamogram
بسم الله الرحمن الرحیم
Dear followers and members of Islamogram,
With immense hardship and only the narrowest window of internet access, we have reached you with this urgent message. At this very moment, as these words are written, we stand beneath the shadow of incoming Tomahawk missiles while our air-defense systems operate at full intensity.
First, I offer my deepest gratitude to my dear friend Adam, who has truly honored the sacred trust placed in him. For an entire month he has managed the channel’s affairs with flawless dedication. A warm welcome to every new follower, and heartfelt thanks to all of you—old and new—for your steadfast companionship through these trying times.
This channel is a vast, carefully preserved archive—a true treasury—of profoundly important material exposing the extensive Zionist infiltration of global power structures and a wealth of revelatory disclosures. Regrettably, under the present circumstances I am unable to post new content or deliver real-time updates on the situation inside Iran.
Yet I have one pressing request for you:
Please search the older posts in our archives. Find those that you believe are most needed right now—when opposition to Israeli aggression has reached its historical zenith and the peoples of the world are thirsting for truth and awareness. Share them far and wide. Your efforts can become a powerful wave of enlightenment reaching every corner of the globe.
My second request is this: Follow the interviews and penetrating analyses of Professor John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs. Pay close attention to Tucker Carlson’s programs as well—they contain points of genuine strategic importance. Likewise, keep track of Dr. Marandi’s perspectives and select episodes of Piers Morgan.
Together, in this hour of reckoning, we continue the work of awakening minds and defending justice.
Thank you for standing with us.
Your support is more vital now than ever.
With immense hardship and only the narrowest window of internet access, we have reached you with this urgent message. At this very moment, as these words are written, we stand beneath the shadow of incoming Tomahawk missiles while our air-defense systems operate at full intensity.
First, I offer my deepest gratitude to my dear friend Adam, who has truly honored the sacred trust placed in him. For an entire month he has managed the channel’s affairs with flawless dedication. A warm welcome to every new follower, and heartfelt thanks to all of you—old and new—for your steadfast companionship through these trying times.
This channel is a vast, carefully preserved archive—a true treasury—of profoundly important material exposing the extensive Zionist infiltration of global power structures and a wealth of revelatory disclosures. Regrettably, under the present circumstances I am unable to post new content or deliver real-time updates on the situation inside Iran.
Yet I have one pressing request for you:
Please search the older posts in our archives. Find those that you believe are most needed right now—when opposition to Israeli aggression has reached its historical zenith and the peoples of the world are thirsting for truth and awareness. Share them far and wide. Your efforts can become a powerful wave of enlightenment reaching every corner of the globe.
My second request is this: Follow the interviews and penetrating analyses of Professor John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs. Pay close attention to Tucker Carlson’s programs as well—they contain points of genuine strategic importance. Likewise, keep track of Dr. Marandi’s perspectives and select episodes of Piers Morgan.
Together, in this hour of reckoning, we continue the work of awakening minds and defending justice.
Thank you for standing with us.
Your support is more vital now than ever.
❤🔥15🫡8
Dear followers and members of Islamogram,
Condolences to every pure-hearted and noble soul across the world on the martyrdom of the Leader of the Ummah, the Guide of the free and the oppressed, His Eminence Ayatollah al-Uzma Seyyed Ali Khamenei. One month has passed since this soul-shattering grief, yet the wound in our hearts still burns as fiercely as on the first day. Seyyed Ali Khamenei was not merely a leader—he was the father of an entire nation, our guide and spiritual master, the kindest to his friends and the most resolute against his enemies. The blood price of this great man is not only the destruction of Israel, but the complete annihilation of America and global arrogance. By the sacred blood of our martyred leader, we swear that we will not lay down our struggle until falsehood is defeated and the ground is prepared for the return and reappearance of the Imam of the Age, Imam Mahdi (may Allah hasten his noble advent).
But dear ones, allow me to describe the situation inside Iran in the words of someone who has been present on the ground continuously for the past month:
From the very night the news of our martyred Imam’s martyrdom was announced, the people poured into the streets in processions. Yet the nature and essence of these marches were entirely different from any other we have seen before. To explain this precisely, I must first clarify a few fundamental realities:
In Iran and the Axis of Resistance, “processions” carry a meaning far deeper than mere demonstrations in other countries. It was through these very marches that Imam Khomeini toppled the tyrannical regime and expelled America from Iran. Every participant sends one clear message to the world: “We are the soldiers of our Leader. We stand ready for his call to jihad. We will not abandon the battlefield, and we are prepared to lay down our lives in his service.” This is the message carried by every single person—from infants to the elderly and even the disabled. Truly, anyone who joins these processions harbors not the slightest fear of sacrificing their life for Islam and the fight against oppression.
Since the victory of the Islamic Revolution, these processions have taken on a consistent and unique form: the massive presence of the people in the main streets and squares of cities. Even the historic 27-million-strong funeral procession for Martyr Haj Qasem Soleimani followed this exact pattern.
However, the processions that began after the martyrdom of Imam Khamenei carried four profound differences:
First, alongside the main squares and streets, gatherings now spread throughout every neighborhood in cities across the country. For the first time in decades, we witnessed an overwhelming flood of regime supporters pouring into local neighborhoods. Personally, while I had always estimated the revolutionary population at 15 to 20 million, I now hold a completely different view: I believe there are at least 30 million steadfast revolutionaries—excluding children. I personally saw countless people who deeply wished to join these gatherings but were physically unable to do so.
Second, among these crowds are thousands upon thousands who, before the martyrdom of Imam Khamenei, were actually opposed to the system. Yet the pure blood of that divine man awakened a vast number of hearts and guided countless souls.
Third, unlike the past when anti-revolutionary elements dared to show disrespect and spout nonsense in public, today the vast majority of them have zipped their filthy mouths shut and cower like hyenas before the roaring lions of the revolution.
Fourth, these processions and gatherings represent the longest sustained series of marches since the Revolution itself. Tomorrow marks exactly one month since they began. During this period we have also held multiple funeral processions for the pure bodies of new martyrs—some days featuring three separate marches.
Condolences to every pure-hearted and noble soul across the world on the martyrdom of the Leader of the Ummah, the Guide of the free and the oppressed, His Eminence Ayatollah al-Uzma Seyyed Ali Khamenei. One month has passed since this soul-shattering grief, yet the wound in our hearts still burns as fiercely as on the first day. Seyyed Ali Khamenei was not merely a leader—he was the father of an entire nation, our guide and spiritual master, the kindest to his friends and the most resolute against his enemies. The blood price of this great man is not only the destruction of Israel, but the complete annihilation of America and global arrogance. By the sacred blood of our martyred leader, we swear that we will not lay down our struggle until falsehood is defeated and the ground is prepared for the return and reappearance of the Imam of the Age, Imam Mahdi (may Allah hasten his noble advent).
But dear ones, allow me to describe the situation inside Iran in the words of someone who has been present on the ground continuously for the past month:
From the very night the news of our martyred Imam’s martyrdom was announced, the people poured into the streets in processions. Yet the nature and essence of these marches were entirely different from any other we have seen before. To explain this precisely, I must first clarify a few fundamental realities:
In Iran and the Axis of Resistance, “processions” carry a meaning far deeper than mere demonstrations in other countries. It was through these very marches that Imam Khomeini toppled the tyrannical regime and expelled America from Iran. Every participant sends one clear message to the world: “We are the soldiers of our Leader. We stand ready for his call to jihad. We will not abandon the battlefield, and we are prepared to lay down our lives in his service.” This is the message carried by every single person—from infants to the elderly and even the disabled. Truly, anyone who joins these processions harbors not the slightest fear of sacrificing their life for Islam and the fight against oppression.
Since the victory of the Islamic Revolution, these processions have taken on a consistent and unique form: the massive presence of the people in the main streets and squares of cities. Even the historic 27-million-strong funeral procession for Martyr Haj Qasem Soleimani followed this exact pattern.
However, the processions that began after the martyrdom of Imam Khamenei carried four profound differences:
First, alongside the main squares and streets, gatherings now spread throughout every neighborhood in cities across the country. For the first time in decades, we witnessed an overwhelming flood of regime supporters pouring into local neighborhoods. Personally, while I had always estimated the revolutionary population at 15 to 20 million, I now hold a completely different view: I believe there are at least 30 million steadfast revolutionaries—excluding children. I personally saw countless people who deeply wished to join these gatherings but were physically unable to do so.
Second, among these crowds are thousands upon thousands who, before the martyrdom of Imam Khamenei, were actually opposed to the system. Yet the pure blood of that divine man awakened a vast number of hearts and guided countless souls.
Third, unlike the past when anti-revolutionary elements dared to show disrespect and spout nonsense in public, today the vast majority of them have zipped their filthy mouths shut and cower like hyenas before the roaring lions of the revolution.
Fourth, these processions and gatherings represent the longest sustained series of marches since the Revolution itself. Tomorrow marks exactly one month since they began. During this period we have also held multiple funeral processions for the pure bodies of new martyrs—some days featuring three separate marches.
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Islamogram
The Great Reckoning: Iran vs. the United States The probability of a direct military confrontation between Iran and the U.S. has reached its historical zenith. This will not be a mere skirmish, but a total war—far more complex than the 12-day Iran-Israel…
Yet dear ones, on January 30 I had predicted the course of this war, and as you can see, a great portion of that vision has already come true: the end of the myth of American invincibility, the death of the unipolar world, the deepening of America’s internal crisis with the historic 7-million-strong “No Kings” protests—the largest in American history—the collapse of crypto markets, Iran’s firm control over the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil prices, Trump’s threats to seize Greenland and Cuba, the destruction of numerous U.S. bases and infrastructure, strikes on Aramco, the ruin of the UAE’s tourism industry, and much more.
Alhamdulillah, up to this point we have achieved a breathtaking victory, and I pray that the war continues until every last American base and piece of equipment in the region is obliterated.
We have also secured tremendous military achievements, including:
- The destruction of numerous air-defense systems, radars, electronic warfare aircraft, and American-Israeli drones
- The downing of an F-35 fighter jet for the first time in history
- Devastating blows to the aircraft carriers Abraham Lincoln and Gerald R. Ford, forcing their retreat
…and countless other victories which, God willing, we will present to the world in a complete series of posts after our final triumph and the end of the war.
Regarding the successor to our martyred Imam, His Eminence Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei: He is the product of a man unmatched in the entire history of Shi’ism—a man who single-handedly stood against the global system of arrogance and brought it to its knees. He is, in the words of the Dua al-Nudba, “the righteous after the righteous.” From this moment, I pledge my allegiance to him and declare that my life is his ransom. Just as I was a devoted follower and lover of his martyred father, I am now a devoted follower and lover of him. I am certain that he will reshape the order of the world in a way that leaves the entire globe astonished. By the pure blood of my martyred Leader, I swear that until our last drop of blood we will remain the loyal followers of his most worthy son.
In conclusion, I have a message for all freedom-loving souls:
Be grateful to God, for the end of the oppressors’ tyranny is near. The Day of Reckoning is near. The liberation of Palestine is near.
Alhamdulillah, up to this point we have achieved a breathtaking victory, and I pray that the war continues until every last American base and piece of equipment in the region is obliterated.
We have also secured tremendous military achievements, including:
- The destruction of numerous air-defense systems, radars, electronic warfare aircraft, and American-Israeli drones
- The downing of an F-35 fighter jet for the first time in history
- Devastating blows to the aircraft carriers Abraham Lincoln and Gerald R. Ford, forcing their retreat
…and countless other victories which, God willing, we will present to the world in a complete series of posts after our final triumph and the end of the war.
Regarding the successor to our martyred Imam, His Eminence Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei: He is the product of a man unmatched in the entire history of Shi’ism—a man who single-handedly stood against the global system of arrogance and brought it to its knees. He is, in the words of the Dua al-Nudba, “the righteous after the righteous.” From this moment, I pledge my allegiance to him and declare that my life is his ransom. Just as I was a devoted follower and lover of his martyred father, I am now a devoted follower and lover of him. I am certain that he will reshape the order of the world in a way that leaves the entire globe astonished. By the pure blood of my martyred Leader, I swear that until our last drop of blood we will remain the loyal followers of his most worthy son.
In conclusion, I have a message for all freedom-loving souls:
Be grateful to God, for the end of the oppressors’ tyranny is near. The Day of Reckoning is near. The liberation of Palestine is near.
🫡9🔥3
Islamogram pinned «Dear followers and members of Islamogram, Condolences to every pure-hearted and noble soul across the world on the martyrdom of the Leader of the Ummah, the Guide of the free and the oppressed, His Eminence Ayatollah al-Uzma Seyyed Ali Khamenei. One month…»
Islamogram
Dear followers and members of Islamogram, Condolences to every pure-hearted and noble soul across the world on the martyrdom of the Leader of the Ummah, the Guide of the free and the oppressed, His Eminence Ayatollah al-Uzma Seyyed Ali Khamenei. One month…
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Iran's army vs US's army
America's circus 🤡 vs Iran's warriors ⚔️
America's circus 🤡 vs Iran's warriors ⚔️
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The Expanding Strategic Costs of War with Iran
The current confrontation involving Iran has already entered a military phase, even if it is presently limited to aerial and remote forms of warfare. Treating the conflict as a hypothetical future scenario ignores the fact that escalation dynamics are already in motion, and that any further expansion—especially into ground operations—would fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region.
History demonstrates that external powers have previously attempted to weaken Iran through large-scale military support to regional adversaries. During the Iran–Iraq War, Iraq received massive financial, intelligence, and military backing from global powers while Iran faced sanctions, internal restructuring, and severe logistical limitations. Despite those disadvantages, Iran prevented territorial collapse and adapted its military structure under pressure.
Since then, Iran has restructured its defense architecture around decentralization and resilience, most notably through its mosaic defense doctrine. Under this model, defensive responsibilities are distributed across provincial and regional commands, each supported by local forces deeply familiar with their terrain and infrastructure. Multiple layers of command succession are embedded into the system to ensure continuity even if senior commanders or central facilities are targeted. The intent of this structure is to ensure that no single strike or limited occupation can decisively neutralize Iran’s defensive capacity, forcing any aggressor into a prolonged and geographically dispersed conflict.
Modern military precedent underscores how difficult territorial occupation is even under favorable conditions. The United States required roughly 500,000 troops to defeat and occupy Iraq in 2003, despite Iraq’s weakened military, flatter terrain, limited naval capability, and significant domestic opposition to its leadership. Iran, by contrast, possesses more complex geography, larger population centers, and a defense doctrine specifically designed for nationwide resistance rather than centralized battlefield engagements.
If the conflict were to expand from aerial confrontation into direct ground incursions, the consequences would not remain confined to Iranian territory. Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that any ground attack launched from the territory of a neighboring state would be met with reciprocal action against that state’s soil. This means that countries hosting staging bases for such operations could themselves become active battlefields.
In practical geopolitical terms, any Iranian ground response into territories such as Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates would not only be a military reaction but also a strategic attempt to reshape regional power balances. Control over or sustained military pressure on these small but economically and geographically critical states would affect maritime trade routes, energy transit corridors, and the security architecture of the Persian Gulf, thereby increasing Iran’s leverage in regional negotiations and security arrangements.
Even a limited landing operation—for example, the insertion of 30,000 foreign troops onto an Iranian island—would not guarantee a decisive outcome. Such forces would face layered missile threats, maritime interdiction, and decentralized ground resistance, while simultaneously exposing their countries of origin to retaliatory operations. The capture or destruction of large numbers of deployed troops would carry not only military but also severe domestic political consequences for the states involved.
Under these conditions, the continuation or expansion of the conflict risks transforming a contained aerial campaign into a multi-front regional war with unpredictable economic and geopolitical consequences. Rather than producing a quick strategic victory, further escalation would likely amplify instability across the Gulf, disrupt global energy flows, and permanently alter the balance of influence in favor of actors able to sustain long-duration asymmetric warfare.
The current confrontation involving Iran has already entered a military phase, even if it is presently limited to aerial and remote forms of warfare. Treating the conflict as a hypothetical future scenario ignores the fact that escalation dynamics are already in motion, and that any further expansion—especially into ground operations—would fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region.
History demonstrates that external powers have previously attempted to weaken Iran through large-scale military support to regional adversaries. During the Iran–Iraq War, Iraq received massive financial, intelligence, and military backing from global powers while Iran faced sanctions, internal restructuring, and severe logistical limitations. Despite those disadvantages, Iran prevented territorial collapse and adapted its military structure under pressure.
Since then, Iran has restructured its defense architecture around decentralization and resilience, most notably through its mosaic defense doctrine. Under this model, defensive responsibilities are distributed across provincial and regional commands, each supported by local forces deeply familiar with their terrain and infrastructure. Multiple layers of command succession are embedded into the system to ensure continuity even if senior commanders or central facilities are targeted. The intent of this structure is to ensure that no single strike or limited occupation can decisively neutralize Iran’s defensive capacity, forcing any aggressor into a prolonged and geographically dispersed conflict.
Modern military precedent underscores how difficult territorial occupation is even under favorable conditions. The United States required roughly 500,000 troops to defeat and occupy Iraq in 2003, despite Iraq’s weakened military, flatter terrain, limited naval capability, and significant domestic opposition to its leadership. Iran, by contrast, possesses more complex geography, larger population centers, and a defense doctrine specifically designed for nationwide resistance rather than centralized battlefield engagements.
If the conflict were to expand from aerial confrontation into direct ground incursions, the consequences would not remain confined to Iranian territory. Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that any ground attack launched from the territory of a neighboring state would be met with reciprocal action against that state’s soil. This means that countries hosting staging bases for such operations could themselves become active battlefields.
In practical geopolitical terms, any Iranian ground response into territories such as Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates would not only be a military reaction but also a strategic attempt to reshape regional power balances. Control over or sustained military pressure on these small but economically and geographically critical states would affect maritime trade routes, energy transit corridors, and the security architecture of the Persian Gulf, thereby increasing Iran’s leverage in regional negotiations and security arrangements.
Even a limited landing operation—for example, the insertion of 30,000 foreign troops onto an Iranian island—would not guarantee a decisive outcome. Such forces would face layered missile threats, maritime interdiction, and decentralized ground resistance, while simultaneously exposing their countries of origin to retaliatory operations. The capture or destruction of large numbers of deployed troops would carry not only military but also severe domestic political consequences for the states involved.
Under these conditions, the continuation or expansion of the conflict risks transforming a contained aerial campaign into a multi-front regional war with unpredictable economic and geopolitical consequences. Rather than producing a quick strategic victory, further escalation would likely amplify instability across the Gulf, disrupt global energy flows, and permanently alter the balance of influence in favor of actors able to sustain long-duration asymmetric warfare.
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Islamogram
The Expanding Strategic Costs of War with Iran The current confrontation involving Iran has already entered a military phase, even if it is presently limited to aerial and remote forms of warfare. Treating the conflict as a hypothetical future scenario ignores…
هزینههای فزایندهٔ راهبردی جنگ با ایران
تقابل کنونی با ایران عملاً وارد فاز نظامی شده است، هرچند در حال حاضر عمدتاً به حوزهٔ هوایی و حملات از راه دور محدود مانده است. تلقی این وضعیت بهعنوان یک سناریوی صرفاً فرضی، نادیده گرفتن واقعیتی است که نشان میدهد روند تشدید درگیریها از هماکنون آغاز شده و هرگونه گسترش آن—بهویژه ورود به عملیات زمینی—میتواند توازن راهبردی منطقه را بهطور اساسی دگرگون کند.
تاریخ نشان داده است که قدرتهای خارجی پیشتر نیز تلاش کردهاند از طریق حمایت گستردهٔ نظامی از بازیگران منطقهای، ایران را تضعیف کنند. در جنگ ایران و عراق، بغداد از پشتیبانی مالی، اطلاعاتی و تسلیحاتی وسیعی برخوردار بود، در حالی که ایران با تحریم، بیثباتی ساختاری و محدودیتهای لجستیکی جدی روبهرو بود. با وجود این شرایط، ایران از فروپاشی سرزمینی جلوگیری کرد و در همان دوران ساختار نظامی خود را با شرایط جنگی تطبیق داد.
از آن زمان تاکنون، ایران معماری دفاعی خود را بر پایهٔ تمرکززدایی و تابآوری بازطراحی کرده است که بارزترین نمود آن دکترین دفاع موزائیکی است. در این الگو، مسئولیتهای دفاعی میان فرماندهیهای استانی و منطقهای توزیع شده و هر منطقه توسط نیروهای بومی آشنا با جغرافیا و زیرساختهای خود حفاظت میشود. در سطوح مختلف فرماندهی نیز چندین جانشین آموزشدیده تعیین شدهاند تا در صورت هدف قرار گرفتن فرماندهان یا مراکز اصلی، زنجیرهٔ فرماندهی دچار اختلال نشود. هدف این ساختار آن است که هیچ حملهٔ محدود یا اشغال موضعی نتواند توان دفاعی کشور را بهطور قاطع از کار بیندازد و مهاجم را به جنگی طولانی و پراکنده بکشاند.
سابقهٔ نظامی معاصر نیز نشان میدهد که اشغال سرزمینی حتی در شرایط مطلوب چه میزان نیرو نیاز دارد. ایالات متحده برای اشغال عراق در سال ۲۰۰۳ حدود ۵۰۰ هزار نیرو به منطقه اعزام کرد؛ در حالی که ارتش عراق تضعیف شده بود، جغرافیای آن هموارتر بود، توان دریایی محدودی داشت و بخش قابل توجهی از جمعیت آن نیز با حکومت صدام مخالف بودند. ایران اما از جغرافیایی پیچیدهتر، جمعیتی بزرگتر و دکترین دفاعی مبتنی بر مقاومت سراسری برخوردار است.
در صورتی که این درگیری از سطح حملات هوایی فراتر رفته و به تهاجم زمینی مستقیم تبدیل شود، پیامدهای آن به خاک ایران محدود نخواهد ماند. ایران بارها اعلام کرده است که هرگونه حملهٔ زمینی که از خاک کشورهای همسایه انجام شود، با پاسخ متقابل در همان خاک روبهرو خواهد شد. این بدان معناست که کشورهایی که میزبان پایگاههای عملیاتی باشند، خود به میدان نبرد تبدیل خواهند شد.
از منظر ژئوپولیتیکی، ورود نیروهای ایرانی به سرزمینهایی مانند بحرین یا امارات تنها یک واکنش نظامی نخواهد بود، بلکه میتواند به تلاشی برای تغییر موازنهٔ قدرت در خلیج فارس تبدیل شود. اعمال کنترل یا فشار نظامی بر این کشورها—که با وجود وسعت کم، از نظر اقتصادی و موقعیت جغرافیایی بسیار حیاتی هستند—میتواند بر مسیرهای تجارت دریایی، انتقال انرژی و ساختار امنیتی منطقه تأثیر بگذارد و اهرم نفوذ ایران را در معادلات منطقهای بهطور قابل توجهی افزایش دهد.
حتی در سناریویی که نیرویی خارجی بتواند حدود ۳۰ هزار سرباز را در یکی از جزایر ایران پیاده کند، چنین اقدامی تضمینکنندهٔ موفقیت نخواهد بود. این نیروها با تهدیدهای چندلایهٔ موشکی، اختلال در خطوط تدارکاتی دریایی و مقاومت غیرمتمرکز زمینی روبهرو خواهند شد و در عین حال، کشورهای مبدأ آنها نیز در معرض عملیات تلافیجویانه قرار خواهند گرفت. وارد آمدن تلفات سنگین یا اسارت شمار زیادی از این نیروها میتواند پیامدهای سیاسی و اجتماعی گستردهای در داخل کشورهای مهاجم ایجاد کند.
در چنین شرایطی، ادامه یا گسترش جنگ میتواند یک تقابل محدود هوایی را به جنگی چندجبههای و منطقهای تبدیل کند که پیامدهای اقتصادی، انرژی و ژئوپولیتیکی آن بسیار فراتر از میدان نبرد خواهد بود و موازنهٔ نفوذ در خلیج فارس را بهطور بنیادین تغییر خواهد داد.
تقابل کنونی با ایران عملاً وارد فاز نظامی شده است، هرچند در حال حاضر عمدتاً به حوزهٔ هوایی و حملات از راه دور محدود مانده است. تلقی این وضعیت بهعنوان یک سناریوی صرفاً فرضی، نادیده گرفتن واقعیتی است که نشان میدهد روند تشدید درگیریها از هماکنون آغاز شده و هرگونه گسترش آن—بهویژه ورود به عملیات زمینی—میتواند توازن راهبردی منطقه را بهطور اساسی دگرگون کند.
تاریخ نشان داده است که قدرتهای خارجی پیشتر نیز تلاش کردهاند از طریق حمایت گستردهٔ نظامی از بازیگران منطقهای، ایران را تضعیف کنند. در جنگ ایران و عراق، بغداد از پشتیبانی مالی، اطلاعاتی و تسلیحاتی وسیعی برخوردار بود، در حالی که ایران با تحریم، بیثباتی ساختاری و محدودیتهای لجستیکی جدی روبهرو بود. با وجود این شرایط، ایران از فروپاشی سرزمینی جلوگیری کرد و در همان دوران ساختار نظامی خود را با شرایط جنگی تطبیق داد.
از آن زمان تاکنون، ایران معماری دفاعی خود را بر پایهٔ تمرکززدایی و تابآوری بازطراحی کرده است که بارزترین نمود آن دکترین دفاع موزائیکی است. در این الگو، مسئولیتهای دفاعی میان فرماندهیهای استانی و منطقهای توزیع شده و هر منطقه توسط نیروهای بومی آشنا با جغرافیا و زیرساختهای خود حفاظت میشود. در سطوح مختلف فرماندهی نیز چندین جانشین آموزشدیده تعیین شدهاند تا در صورت هدف قرار گرفتن فرماندهان یا مراکز اصلی، زنجیرهٔ فرماندهی دچار اختلال نشود. هدف این ساختار آن است که هیچ حملهٔ محدود یا اشغال موضعی نتواند توان دفاعی کشور را بهطور قاطع از کار بیندازد و مهاجم را به جنگی طولانی و پراکنده بکشاند.
سابقهٔ نظامی معاصر نیز نشان میدهد که اشغال سرزمینی حتی در شرایط مطلوب چه میزان نیرو نیاز دارد. ایالات متحده برای اشغال عراق در سال ۲۰۰۳ حدود ۵۰۰ هزار نیرو به منطقه اعزام کرد؛ در حالی که ارتش عراق تضعیف شده بود، جغرافیای آن هموارتر بود، توان دریایی محدودی داشت و بخش قابل توجهی از جمعیت آن نیز با حکومت صدام مخالف بودند. ایران اما از جغرافیایی پیچیدهتر، جمعیتی بزرگتر و دکترین دفاعی مبتنی بر مقاومت سراسری برخوردار است.
در صورتی که این درگیری از سطح حملات هوایی فراتر رفته و به تهاجم زمینی مستقیم تبدیل شود، پیامدهای آن به خاک ایران محدود نخواهد ماند. ایران بارها اعلام کرده است که هرگونه حملهٔ زمینی که از خاک کشورهای همسایه انجام شود، با پاسخ متقابل در همان خاک روبهرو خواهد شد. این بدان معناست که کشورهایی که میزبان پایگاههای عملیاتی باشند، خود به میدان نبرد تبدیل خواهند شد.
از منظر ژئوپولیتیکی، ورود نیروهای ایرانی به سرزمینهایی مانند بحرین یا امارات تنها یک واکنش نظامی نخواهد بود، بلکه میتواند به تلاشی برای تغییر موازنهٔ قدرت در خلیج فارس تبدیل شود. اعمال کنترل یا فشار نظامی بر این کشورها—که با وجود وسعت کم، از نظر اقتصادی و موقعیت جغرافیایی بسیار حیاتی هستند—میتواند بر مسیرهای تجارت دریایی، انتقال انرژی و ساختار امنیتی منطقه تأثیر بگذارد و اهرم نفوذ ایران را در معادلات منطقهای بهطور قابل توجهی افزایش دهد.
حتی در سناریویی که نیرویی خارجی بتواند حدود ۳۰ هزار سرباز را در یکی از جزایر ایران پیاده کند، چنین اقدامی تضمینکنندهٔ موفقیت نخواهد بود. این نیروها با تهدیدهای چندلایهٔ موشکی، اختلال در خطوط تدارکاتی دریایی و مقاومت غیرمتمرکز زمینی روبهرو خواهند شد و در عین حال، کشورهای مبدأ آنها نیز در معرض عملیات تلافیجویانه قرار خواهند گرفت. وارد آمدن تلفات سنگین یا اسارت شمار زیادی از این نیروها میتواند پیامدهای سیاسی و اجتماعی گستردهای در داخل کشورهای مهاجم ایجاد کند.
در چنین شرایطی، ادامه یا گسترش جنگ میتواند یک تقابل محدود هوایی را به جنگی چندجبههای و منطقهای تبدیل کند که پیامدهای اقتصادی، انرژی و ژئوپولیتیکی آن بسیار فراتر از میدان نبرد خواهد بود و موازنهٔ نفوذ در خلیج فارس را بهطور بنیادین تغییر خواهد داد.
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Forwarded from Ruqayya
بعينِ الله أنتِ،
عندما تمشين بهدوءٍ وتتجنبين مضايقة الرجال في الشوارع، فإن اختياركِ هذا عبادةٌ.
بعينِ الله أنتِ،
عندما تحرصين على حدودكِ، وتبتعدين عن الاختلاط غير الضروري، حفاظةً على قلبكِ وكرامتكِ.
بعينِ الله أنتِ،
عندما تلتزمين بزيكِ الشرعي، ليس من أجل إرضاء أحد، بل طاعةً لمن خلقكِ.
وبعينِ الله أنتِ أكثر،
عندما تجاهدين نفسكِ في الخفاء، وتخفين صراعكِ، وتنتصرين على هواةٍ كان بإمكانكِ أن تتبعيهم.
كل موقفٍ اخترتِ فيه العفّة،
كل مرةٍ فضلتِ فيها الحياء،
كل لحظةٍ صبرتِ فيها على نفسكِ...
هي نورٌ يُكتب لكِ، وأجرٌ يُدَّخر عند الله.
فثبتي،
فمن راقبه في سرّه وعلنه، وعاش في معيته،
ومن كانت خطواته لله، كانت عنايةُ الله له.
عندما تمشين بهدوءٍ وتتجنبين مضايقة الرجال في الشوارع، فإن اختياركِ هذا عبادةٌ.
بعينِ الله أنتِ،
عندما تحرصين على حدودكِ، وتبتعدين عن الاختلاط غير الضروري، حفاظةً على قلبكِ وكرامتكِ.
بعينِ الله أنتِ،
عندما تلتزمين بزيكِ الشرعي، ليس من أجل إرضاء أحد، بل طاعةً لمن خلقكِ.
وبعينِ الله أنتِ أكثر،
عندما تجاهدين نفسكِ في الخفاء، وتخفين صراعكِ، وتنتصرين على هواةٍ كان بإمكانكِ أن تتبعيهم.
كل موقفٍ اخترتِ فيه العفّة،
كل مرةٍ فضلتِ فيها الحياء،
كل لحظةٍ صبرتِ فيها على نفسكِ...
هي نورٌ يُكتب لكِ، وأجرٌ يُدَّخر عند الله.
فثبتي،
فمن راقبه في سرّه وعلنه، وعاش في معيته،
ومن كانت خطواته لله، كانت عنايةُ الله له.
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