The key macro driver in focus today will be the RBA rate decision. With markets widely pricing in no policy
adjustment, the focus will be on the central bank’s communication and its quarterly updates – particularly
on inflation and cash rate projections.
#FPMarkets #RBA #macro #AUD
adjustment, the focus will be on the central bank’s communication and its quarterly updates – particularly
on inflation and cash rate projections.
#FPMarkets #RBA #macro #AUD
Following last week’s disappointing US jobs report, today is all about the US CPI inflation print – expected
to edge lower at both headline and core levels.
#FPMarkets
to edge lower at both headline and core levels.
#FPMarkets
From the Research desk:
US CPI inflation preview -
Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.
A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.
US CPI inflation preview -
Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.
A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.
From the Research desk:
US CPI inflation preview -
Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.
A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.
US CPI inflation preview -
Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.
A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.
🇺🇸 White House vows to PASS the crypto CLARITY Act in September.
Patrick Witt says the Trump administration remains “fully committed” to passing the crypto bill, adding, the US "can’t afford to wait forever.”
The bill now faces a 60-vote test on September 15.
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Patrick Witt says the Trump administration remains “fully committed” to passing the crypto bill, adding, the US "can’t afford to wait forever.”
The bill now faces a 60-vote test on September 15.
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NEW: 🟠 "Bitcoin can rise 50% per year solely on money printing"
"Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset in the world to global liquidity."
- Anthony Pompliano
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/2086830836104528208
"Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset in the world to global liquidity."
- Anthony Pompliano
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/2086830836104528208
ICYMI: 🇺🇸 Trump Media & Technology disclosed a Bitcoin treasury of 14,139 BTC worth over $900 million! 🤯
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2086925681334657035
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2086925681334657035
BREAKING: 🇷🇺 Russia's central bank announces it approved Bitcoin for public trading on domestic exchanges, TASS reports.
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2087166866649153805
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2087166866649153805
NEW: 🟠 Latin America's largest Bitcoin treasury company OranjeBTC reaches 3,950 BTC in holdings ($255M).
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/2087184511649866056
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/2087184511649866056
NEW: 🇺🇸 SEC to consider new rules for certain "crypto asset" investment contracts on Friday 👀
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2087191141904966125
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2087191141904966125
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC 'will proceed with digital asset rulemakings' even if the Clarity Act does not pass, Chairman Selig reportedly said 👀
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2087242987696685516
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2087242987696685516
JUST IN: 🇨🇦 $600 billion National Bank of Canada just revealed they more than doubled their stake in Bitcoin treasury company Strategy $MSTR to 1.2 million shares ($116 million).
A systemically important bank, doubling down.
Source: https://x.com/BTCtreasuries/status/2087258478112858425
A systemically important bank, doubling down.
Source: https://x.com/BTCtreasuries/status/2087258478112858425
JUST IN: 🇩🇰 Denmark's Largest Bank Danske Bank just announced they hold 131,607 shares ($11.44 million) of #Bitcoin treasury company Strategy $MSTR.
2nd Largest Bank in the Nordics btw.
Source: https://x.com/BTCtreasuries/status/2087275361742492117
2nd Largest Bank in the Nordics btw.
Source: https://x.com/BTCtreasuries/status/2087275361742492117
The CFTC charges a Florida man over a $397 MILLION crypto Ponzi scheme with 1,600 victims.
Christopher Delgado and his firm Goliath Ventures allegedly lied about putting customer funds in DeFi liquidity pools.
Instead he spent $48 million on a yacht, $4.9 million on world travel and $2.9 million on luxury apparel and jewelry.
Delgado already pleaded guilty to wire fraud in June and faces up to 20 years per count. The SEC filed parallel charges Tuesday.
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Christopher Delgado and his firm Goliath Ventures allegedly lied about putting customer funds in DeFi liquidity pools.
Instead he spent $48 million on a yacht, $4.9 million on world travel and $2.9 million on luxury apparel and jewelry.
Delgado already pleaded guilty to wire fraud in June and faces up to 20 years per count. The SEC filed parallel charges Tuesday.
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NEW: 🇰🇭 BREAKING: 🇰🇭 Cambodia moves to regulate Bitcoin & crypto.
• Prime Minister ordered new working group.
• Co-led by Finance Ministry & Central Bank.
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/2087267620118532176
• Prime Minister ordered new working group.
• Co-led by Finance Ministry & Central Bank.
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/2087267620118532176