From the Research Desk –
· Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping oil benchmarks bid. Brent crude rallied nearly 7% and is fast approaching US$90/barrel. President Trump recently said the Strait of Hormuz is open, but vessel flows do not reflect that, and the current situation shows both sides hardening their demands.
· Equities are treading water, with US cash equity indexes closing modestly lower on Monday, while regional indices were bid overnight in Asia (Tokyo was closed for a holiday). Investors are cautious ahead of key US inflation data tomorrow.
· The RBA held the cash rate on hold at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting. The immediate downside move in the AUD came on the back of the bank’s latest forecasts, which showed a downward revision to the cash rate to 4.4%, with the YY trimmed-mean inflation forecast also revised lower to 3.3% by year-end and to 3% by June 2027. Essentially, this signals to traders that the central bank does not see the need to hike rates to bring inflation down. However, in her press conference, RBA Governor Bullock struck a hawkish tone, noting that inflation risks remain to the upside and that a rate hike was discussed at the meeting.
· The JPY has now lost half of its gains against the USD following the coordinated intervention to support the yen. Fundamental change is needed here. The BoJ's July minutes show the board leaning hawkish: several members argued that inflation risks are now skewed to the upside – driven by yen weakness, Middle East oil costs, and AI-fuelled demand – and that rate hikes may need to come faster than markets expect, with one member framing it as a shift from ‘lifting inflation to 2%’ to ‘preventing an overshoot’. Policy was held steady this meeting only to assess the impact of the prior hike, but the tone points squarely towards a September move.
· US Treasuries fell amid inflation fears. Fed President Beth Hammack recently noted that it will likely take more than one rate hike to bring inflation down, comparing the approach to gradually pumping the brakes rather than slamming them, though she declined to prejudge the exact number of moves needed. This follows her dissent at the last FOMC meeting, where she favoured hiking. This also comes ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI inflation report and follows weak jobs data. Expectations are for the YY headline and core measures to come in slightly lower at 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
#FPMarkets #Forex #stocks #bonds #oil #markets
· Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping oil benchmarks bid. Brent crude rallied nearly 7% and is fast approaching US$90/barrel. President Trump recently said the Strait of Hormuz is open, but vessel flows do not reflect that, and the current situation shows both sides hardening their demands.
· Equities are treading water, with US cash equity indexes closing modestly lower on Monday, while regional indices were bid overnight in Asia (Tokyo was closed for a holiday). Investors are cautious ahead of key US inflation data tomorrow.
· The RBA held the cash rate on hold at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting. The immediate downside move in the AUD came on the back of the bank’s latest forecasts, which showed a downward revision to the cash rate to 4.4%, with the YY trimmed-mean inflation forecast also revised lower to 3.3% by year-end and to 3% by June 2027. Essentially, this signals to traders that the central bank does not see the need to hike rates to bring inflation down. However, in her press conference, RBA Governor Bullock struck a hawkish tone, noting that inflation risks remain to the upside and that a rate hike was discussed at the meeting.
· The JPY has now lost half of its gains against the USD following the coordinated intervention to support the yen. Fundamental change is needed here. The BoJ's July minutes show the board leaning hawkish: several members argued that inflation risks are now skewed to the upside – driven by yen weakness, Middle East oil costs, and AI-fuelled demand – and that rate hikes may need to come faster than markets expect, with one member framing it as a shift from ‘lifting inflation to 2%’ to ‘preventing an overshoot’. Policy was held steady this meeting only to assess the impact of the prior hike, but the tone points squarely towards a September move.
· US Treasuries fell amid inflation fears. Fed President Beth Hammack recently noted that it will likely take more than one rate hike to bring inflation down, comparing the approach to gradually pumping the brakes rather than slamming them, though she declined to prejudge the exact number of moves needed. This follows her dissent at the last FOMC meeting, where she favoured hiking. This also comes ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI inflation report and follows weak jobs data. Expectations are for the YY headline and core measures to come in slightly lower at 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
#FPMarkets #Forex #stocks #bonds #oil #markets
Following last week’s disappointing US jobs report, today is all about the US CPI inflation print – expected
to edge lower at both headline and core levels.
#FPMarkets
to edge lower at both headline and core levels.
#FPMarkets
The key macro driver in focus today will be the RBA rate decision. With markets widely pricing in no policy
adjustment, the focus will be on the central bank’s communication and its quarterly updates – particularly
on inflation and cash rate projections.
#FPMarkets #RBA #macro #AUD
adjustment, the focus will be on the central bank’s communication and its quarterly updates – particularly
on inflation and cash rate projections.
#FPMarkets #RBA #macro #AUD
Following last week’s disappointing US jobs report, today is all about the US CPI inflation print – expected
to edge lower at both headline and core levels.
#FPMarkets
to edge lower at both headline and core levels.
#FPMarkets
From the Research desk:
US CPI inflation preview -
Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.
A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.
US CPI inflation preview -
Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.
A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.
From the Research desk:
US CPI inflation preview -
Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.
A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.
US CPI inflation preview -
Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.
A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.
A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.
🇺🇸 White House vows to PASS the crypto CLARITY Act in September.
Patrick Witt says the Trump administration remains “fully committed” to passing the crypto bill, adding, the US "can’t afford to wait forever.”
The bill now faces a 60-vote test on September 15.
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Patrick Witt says the Trump administration remains “fully committed” to passing the crypto bill, adding, the US "can’t afford to wait forever.”
The bill now faces a 60-vote test on September 15.
💧 Rainbet.com the #1 Non-KYC Crypto Casino @rainbetcom
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Source: https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/2086830836104528208
"Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset in the world to global liquidity."
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Source: https://x.com/BitcoinArchive/status/2086830836104528208
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Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2087242987696685516
Source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2087242987696685516
JUST IN: 🇨🇦 $600 billion National Bank of Canada just revealed they more than doubled their stake in Bitcoin treasury company Strategy $MSTR to 1.2 million shares ($116 million).
A systemically important bank, doubling down.
Source: https://x.com/BTCtreasuries/status/2087258478112858425
A systemically important bank, doubling down.
Source: https://x.com/BTCtreasuries/status/2087258478112858425
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2nd Largest Bank in the Nordics btw.
Source: https://x.com/BTCtreasuries/status/2087275361742492117
2nd Largest Bank in the Nordics btw.
Source: https://x.com/BTCtreasuries/status/2087275361742492117