In 1997, at the age of 27, Matt Damon won his first Academy Award for Best Screenplay ("Good Will Hunting").
After Damon won the Oscar, he went home, sat down on his sofa, & looked at the award.
As he looked at it, he was suddenly overwhelmed by a heartbreaking thought.
"Imagine chasing that, and not getting it, and getting it finally in your 80s or your 90s with all of life behind you and realizing what an unbelievable waste of your life...It can't fill you up. If that's a hole that you have, that won't fill it."
"My heart broke," Damon said. "I imagined another one of me [not getting that award until I was] an old man, and going like, 'oh my god. where did my life go? What have I done?' And then it's over."
Takeaway 1:
Many successful, rich, famous, etc. people talk about chasing success, money, fame, etc., getting it, and realizing that it didn't feel like they thought it would. That it didn't, as Damon said, fill the hole they had.
One of my favorite analogies for this pattern comes from Sam Hinkie.
Hinkie was asked about what he's learned from reading Robert Caro's books—about some very successful, rich, famous, etc. people.
"I think of it like the Pacific Salmon," Hinkie said. "They spend their whole life making this journey upstream to spawn in this one spot. And as soon as they do, they die. That's largely what Caro shows you."
Takeaway 2:
Before he was a big-time comedian, Hasan Minhaj was asked if he thought he was going to become a big-time comedian.
“I don’t like that question,” he said. “I fundamentally don’t like that question.”
Because that question implies that he is only doing comedy as a means to some end (success, money, fame, etc.).
“No, no, no,” he said, “The set I get to do tonight at 7:20 PM is the win. I get to do comedy—I won. It being predicated on doing X or being bigger than Y—no, no, no. To me, it’s always just been about the work."
"The work is the win," as Ryan Holiday once told me.
- - -
"It's such a gift to be able to [do] something and to love it for the sake of it...I see people with talent, with all those things. But the one thing they don't have is just that love for doing it for the sake of it...So if there's anything, just find joy in what you do for the sake of it." — Rodney Mullen / via Billy Oppenheimer
After Damon won the Oscar, he went home, sat down on his sofa, & looked at the award.
As he looked at it, he was suddenly overwhelmed by a heartbreaking thought.
"Imagine chasing that, and not getting it, and getting it finally in your 80s or your 90s with all of life behind you and realizing what an unbelievable waste of your life...It can't fill you up. If that's a hole that you have, that won't fill it."
"My heart broke," Damon said. "I imagined another one of me [not getting that award until I was] an old man, and going like, 'oh my god. where did my life go? What have I done?' And then it's over."
Takeaway 1:
Many successful, rich, famous, etc. people talk about chasing success, money, fame, etc., getting it, and realizing that it didn't feel like they thought it would. That it didn't, as Damon said, fill the hole they had.
One of my favorite analogies for this pattern comes from Sam Hinkie.
Hinkie was asked about what he's learned from reading Robert Caro's books—about some very successful, rich, famous, etc. people.
"I think of it like the Pacific Salmon," Hinkie said. "They spend their whole life making this journey upstream to spawn in this one spot. And as soon as they do, they die. That's largely what Caro shows you."
Takeaway 2:
Before he was a big-time comedian, Hasan Minhaj was asked if he thought he was going to become a big-time comedian.
“I don’t like that question,” he said. “I fundamentally don’t like that question.”
Because that question implies that he is only doing comedy as a means to some end (success, money, fame, etc.).
“No, no, no,” he said, “The set I get to do tonight at 7:20 PM is the win. I get to do comedy—I won. It being predicated on doing X or being bigger than Y—no, no, no. To me, it’s always just been about the work."
"The work is the win," as Ryan Holiday once told me.
- - -
"It's such a gift to be able to [do] something and to love it for the sake of it...I see people with talent, with all those things. But the one thing they don't have is just that love for doing it for the sake of it...So if there's anything, just find joy in what you do for the sake of it." — Rodney Mullen / via Billy Oppenheimer
How Erik helped Gokul in Framing:
How to present
In 2006, I helped Eric Schmidt create a deck outlining Google’s strategy, for a presentation Eric was delivering to the company. It taught me a profound lesson on how to present.
When I showed up to my first meeting with Eric, he asked me to visit with every product team at Google, chat with them to figure out what they were working on, and then summarize it on one slide (for each team).
Easy enough, I thought. I would use 3-5 bullet points per slide. Piece of cake. I started mentally mapping things out and got ready to leave.
“But”, Eric said, “I want no words on any slide”.
My well-laid plans disintegrated in an instant. How was I supposed to convey the key messages from each team, without WORDS?
Eric must have seen the panic on my face, and kindly gave me a hint. “Put the text in speaker notes”.
“But what goes on the slides, Eric?” I continued panicking.
That classic, gentle “Eric smile” fluttered on his face. “Why, images, of course!”
“You mean, you want each slide to just be comprised of images?”
“You got it. And use the title wisely. 7-8 words max. Let’s meet in a week to review progress.”
As I left the meeting, little was I to know that this conversation would fundamentally change my view on how to deliver effective presentations.
17 years later, I still cling tightly to the following principles:
1. The larger the audience, the fewer the words on the slide. In Eric’s case, the audience was thousands of employees, so we had 0 words per slide.
2. The title does most of the heavy lifting, which means it cannot be passive. It must be action oriented. Eg: not “Subscriber retention” but “Subscribers continue to be retained strongly” or even better “Net revenue retention continues to be > 100%”.
3. Use memorable images that substantiate and give credence to the words of the title. This image is what will occupy most of the slide area, so you need to spend much of your time thinking about what picture will best get the point (made by the title) across. In some cases, it might be a customer image or logo. in other cases, a graph. In yet other cases, it could be something else entirely. For the Google presentation, one of the images that gave me the most trouble was a slide on Google Search Appliance and other Enterprise products. The title stated that these products were increasingly being used by larger customers. The team didn’t want to share customer logos broadly since some were confidential, so logos were not an option. I decided to go with a trend line on the % of searches from enterprise customers, but the person who was supposed to pull this data for me, flaked at the last minute and I had to scramble. I ended up scrambling to create a mosaic of a bunch of consumer product logos with some kind of icon that denoted large enterprises. Not my finest moment but it got the point across.
4. Use speaker notes. Like Eric said, speaker notes should contain most of the details. It puts a lot of burden on the speaker since they cannot just read off the slides. But this doesn’t deter good speakers, since they prepare dozens of times, and then again.
So there you have it: my 4 principles for delivering compelling presentations to live audiences.
(CAVEAT: If the presentation has to be emailed to an audience who will consume it asynchronously, that’s completely different and has different rules).
How did the 2006 Google strategy presentation turn out, you ask? It went quite well, and later I got a nice thank you note from Eric. I didn’t realize at the time that I should have been the one thanking him for the once-in-a-lifetime learning opportunity.
How to present
In 2006, I helped Eric Schmidt create a deck outlining Google’s strategy, for a presentation Eric was delivering to the company. It taught me a profound lesson on how to present.
When I showed up to my first meeting with Eric, he asked me to visit with every product team at Google, chat with them to figure out what they were working on, and then summarize it on one slide (for each team).
Easy enough, I thought. I would use 3-5 bullet points per slide. Piece of cake. I started mentally mapping things out and got ready to leave.
“But”, Eric said, “I want no words on any slide”.
My well-laid plans disintegrated in an instant. How was I supposed to convey the key messages from each team, without WORDS?
Eric must have seen the panic on my face, and kindly gave me a hint. “Put the text in speaker notes”.
“But what goes on the slides, Eric?” I continued panicking.
That classic, gentle “Eric smile” fluttered on his face. “Why, images, of course!”
“You mean, you want each slide to just be comprised of images?”
“You got it. And use the title wisely. 7-8 words max. Let’s meet in a week to review progress.”
As I left the meeting, little was I to know that this conversation would fundamentally change my view on how to deliver effective presentations.
17 years later, I still cling tightly to the following principles:
1. The larger the audience, the fewer the words on the slide. In Eric’s case, the audience was thousands of employees, so we had 0 words per slide.
2. The title does most of the heavy lifting, which means it cannot be passive. It must be action oriented. Eg: not “Subscriber retention” but “Subscribers continue to be retained strongly” or even better “Net revenue retention continues to be > 100%”.
3. Use memorable images that substantiate and give credence to the words of the title. This image is what will occupy most of the slide area, so you need to spend much of your time thinking about what picture will best get the point (made by the title) across. In some cases, it might be a customer image or logo. in other cases, a graph. In yet other cases, it could be something else entirely. For the Google presentation, one of the images that gave me the most trouble was a slide on Google Search Appliance and other Enterprise products. The title stated that these products were increasingly being used by larger customers. The team didn’t want to share customer logos broadly since some were confidential, so logos were not an option. I decided to go with a trend line on the % of searches from enterprise customers, but the person who was supposed to pull this data for me, flaked at the last minute and I had to scramble. I ended up scrambling to create a mosaic of a bunch of consumer product logos with some kind of icon that denoted large enterprises. Not my finest moment but it got the point across.
4. Use speaker notes. Like Eric said, speaker notes should contain most of the details. It puts a lot of burden on the speaker since they cannot just read off the slides. But this doesn’t deter good speakers, since they prepare dozens of times, and then again.
So there you have it: my 4 principles for delivering compelling presentations to live audiences.
(CAVEAT: If the presentation has to be emailed to an audience who will consume it asynchronously, that’s completely different and has different rules).
How did the 2006 Google strategy presentation turn out, you ask? It went quite well, and later I got a nice thank you note from Eric. I didn’t realize at the time that I should have been the one thanking him for the once-in-a-lifetime learning opportunity.
Inflation Frames.
Frame One: Cost-Push Inflation
Prices increase when the cost of production increases.
Frame Two: Demand-Pull Inflation
Prices increase when demand increases faster than production.
Frame Three: Built-In Inflation (Wage-Price Spiral)
Workers want higher wages to keep up with the cost of living.
Frame One: Cost-Push Inflation
Prices increase when the cost of production increases.
Frame Two: Demand-Pull Inflation
Prices increase when demand increases faster than production.
Frame Three: Built-In Inflation (Wage-Price Spiral)
Workers want higher wages to keep up with the cost of living.
Framing Uncertainty
1. Uncertainty is inherent in all aspects of life: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of the world we live in. It is present in various domains such as science, economics, relationships, and decision-making. No matter how much information we gather, there will always be a level of uncertainty attached to it.
2. Uncertainty is not the same as risk: While uncertainty and risk are related concepts, they are distinct. Risk refers to situations where the probabilities of various outcomes are known, whereas uncertainty refers to situations where the probabilities are unknown or cannot be accurately estimated. Uncertainty often involves unpredictable or unforeseen events.
3. Uncertainty can be subjective and objective: Uncertainty can arise due to both subjective factors (such as personal beliefs, emotions, and biases) and objective factors (such as incomplete information, complexity, and randomness). Subjective uncertainty is influenced by individuals' perception and interpretation of events, while objective uncertainty exists independently of individual perspectives.
4. Uncertainty can be quantified and managed: Although uncertainty is inherently difficult to measure precisely, various techniques and models exist to quantify and manage it to some extent. Probability theory, statistical analysis, and decision-making frameworks help in assessing and addressing uncertainty. Techniques like scenario planning and sensitivity analysis can provide insights into the potential range of outcomes.
5. Uncertainty can lead to opportunities and threats: Uncertainty is not always negative; it can create opportunities for innovation, growth, and adaptation. Uncertain environments often stimulate creativity and problem-solving abilities. However, uncertainty can also pose threats and challenges, particularly when it comes to decision-making, resource allocation, and planning.
6. Uncertainty requires adaptability and flexibility: Dealing with uncertainty necessitates being adaptable and flexible in our thinking and actions. It is crucial to acknowledge that uncertainty exists, embrace it as a natural part of life, and be open to adjusting plans and strategies as new information emerges.
7. Uncertainty can be managed through robustness and resilience: In the face of uncertainty, building robustness and resilience can help individuals, organizations, and systems withstand and navigate uncertain situations. Robustness involves planning and preparing for a wide range of potential outcomes, while resilience focuses on the ability to recover quickly from disruptions and adapt to changing circumstances.
8. Uncertainty is an opportunity for learning and growth: Embracing uncertainty can lead to personal and intellectual growth. Uncertain situations often require us to step out of our comfort zones, challenge our assumptions, and explore new possibilities. By embracing uncertainty, we can learn valuable lessons, gain new perspectives, and develop resilience for future challenges.
1. Uncertainty is inherent in all aspects of life: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of the world we live in. It is present in various domains such as science, economics, relationships, and decision-making. No matter how much information we gather, there will always be a level of uncertainty attached to it.
2. Uncertainty is not the same as risk: While uncertainty and risk are related concepts, they are distinct. Risk refers to situations where the probabilities of various outcomes are known, whereas uncertainty refers to situations where the probabilities are unknown or cannot be accurately estimated. Uncertainty often involves unpredictable or unforeseen events.
3. Uncertainty can be subjective and objective: Uncertainty can arise due to both subjective factors (such as personal beliefs, emotions, and biases) and objective factors (such as incomplete information, complexity, and randomness). Subjective uncertainty is influenced by individuals' perception and interpretation of events, while objective uncertainty exists independently of individual perspectives.
4. Uncertainty can be quantified and managed: Although uncertainty is inherently difficult to measure precisely, various techniques and models exist to quantify and manage it to some extent. Probability theory, statistical analysis, and decision-making frameworks help in assessing and addressing uncertainty. Techniques like scenario planning and sensitivity analysis can provide insights into the potential range of outcomes.
5. Uncertainty can lead to opportunities and threats: Uncertainty is not always negative; it can create opportunities for innovation, growth, and adaptation. Uncertain environments often stimulate creativity and problem-solving abilities. However, uncertainty can also pose threats and challenges, particularly when it comes to decision-making, resource allocation, and planning.
6. Uncertainty requires adaptability and flexibility: Dealing with uncertainty necessitates being adaptable and flexible in our thinking and actions. It is crucial to acknowledge that uncertainty exists, embrace it as a natural part of life, and be open to adjusting plans and strategies as new information emerges.
7. Uncertainty can be managed through robustness and resilience: In the face of uncertainty, building robustness and resilience can help individuals, organizations, and systems withstand and navigate uncertain situations. Robustness involves planning and preparing for a wide range of potential outcomes, while resilience focuses on the ability to recover quickly from disruptions and adapt to changing circumstances.
8. Uncertainty is an opportunity for learning and growth: Embracing uncertainty can lead to personal and intellectual growth. Uncertain situations often require us to step out of our comfort zones, challenge our assumptions, and explore new possibilities. By embracing uncertainty, we can learn valuable lessons, gain new perspectives, and develop resilience for future challenges.
10 Thinking Frames that will level up your Thinking:
1. First Principle Thinking - Rethink the problem from the ground up.
Separate the underlying facts from assumptions made based on them.
2. Second-Order Thinking - Instead of thinking about the immediate consequences, think about the second-level consequences.
3. Inversion - Look at the problem at hand from the endpoint instead of the starting point.
Don't ask: "What do I need to do?" Ask: "What must I avoid?"
4. Opportunity Costs - Think about the costs that arise because you decide in favor of one option and thus against every other option.
5. Randomness - Keep in mind that there aren't always cause-effect relationships.
Lots of stuff is random.
6. Leverage - “Give me a lever long enough and I shall move the world.” - Archimedes
7. Margin of Safety - Assume that your assumptions can be wrong and plan with a safety margin.
8. Occam's Razor - Always start with the simplest explanation, the one based on the least assumptions.
Then move to the other explanations if wrong.
9. Law of Diminishing Returns - Up to a certain point, additional units offer more value.
But there's a turning point where additional units offer less and less value, and costs rise.
10. Niches - Specializing is an effective way to success. Use it and choose a niche where you become an expert.
1. First Principle Thinking - Rethink the problem from the ground up.
Separate the underlying facts from assumptions made based on them.
2. Second-Order Thinking - Instead of thinking about the immediate consequences, think about the second-level consequences.
3. Inversion - Look at the problem at hand from the endpoint instead of the starting point.
Don't ask: "What do I need to do?" Ask: "What must I avoid?"
4. Opportunity Costs - Think about the costs that arise because you decide in favor of one option and thus against every other option.
5. Randomness - Keep in mind that there aren't always cause-effect relationships.
Lots of stuff is random.
6. Leverage - “Give me a lever long enough and I shall move the world.” - Archimedes
7. Margin of Safety - Assume that your assumptions can be wrong and plan with a safety margin.
8. Occam's Razor - Always start with the simplest explanation, the one based on the least assumptions.
Then move to the other explanations if wrong.
9. Law of Diminishing Returns - Up to a certain point, additional units offer more value.
But there's a turning point where additional units offer less and less value, and costs rise.
10. Niches - Specializing is an effective way to success. Use it and choose a niche where you become an expert.
New Frame For Failure
[Failure Journal]
- Every time you fail at something, write it down.
- After a month, write down what you learned from that failure.
- After 6 months, write down a good thing that happened because of that failure.
[Failure Journal]
- Every time you fail at something, write it down.
- After a month, write down what you learned from that failure.
- After 6 months, write down a good thing that happened because of that failure.
❤1
10 Framings that explain the modern world
1. Parkinson’s Law: Companies become bigger and worse over time. Clerks manufacture work for each other as overall capacity dips. When British Navy ships went down from 68 to 20, officials increased by 78%.
2. Chesterton Fence: If you don’t know what an old custom does, don’t touch it. It may be holding back problems you’re completely unaware of. You’ve not seen the wolves yet because of the very fence you’re about to demolish.
3. The Medici Effect: Sculptors, painters, and architects converged in Florence as the Medicis were funding the artists. Their proximity led to a fertile dialogue which, in turn, led to the Renaissance. The internet will amplify this cross-pollination of ideas.
4. The Centipede's Dilemma: Ask a centipede which one of its hundred legs moves the fastest and it forgets how to move. Reflecting on what we normally do without thought ironically worsens performance. A culture of endless self-reflection, therapy, and navel gazing is eroding important life skills.
5. Tyranny of small decisions: Individuals make small decisions to maximize convenience but this leads to massive social failure. We nod along to contagious ideas like “gender is fluid” because resisting them is too much work - till kids start getting transgender surgery. The slippery slope is not a fallacy but a fundamental reality.
1. Parkinson’s Law: Companies become bigger and worse over time. Clerks manufacture work for each other as overall capacity dips. When British Navy ships went down from 68 to 20, officials increased by 78%.
2. Chesterton Fence: If you don’t know what an old custom does, don’t touch it. It may be holding back problems you’re completely unaware of. You’ve not seen the wolves yet because of the very fence you’re about to demolish.
3. The Medici Effect: Sculptors, painters, and architects converged in Florence as the Medicis were funding the artists. Their proximity led to a fertile dialogue which, in turn, led to the Renaissance. The internet will amplify this cross-pollination of ideas.
4. The Centipede's Dilemma: Ask a centipede which one of its hundred legs moves the fastest and it forgets how to move. Reflecting on what we normally do without thought ironically worsens performance. A culture of endless self-reflection, therapy, and navel gazing is eroding important life skills.
5. Tyranny of small decisions: Individuals make small decisions to maximize convenience but this leads to massive social failure. We nod along to contagious ideas like “gender is fluid” because resisting them is too much work - till kids start getting transgender surgery. The slippery slope is not a fallacy but a fundamental reality.
6. The Zebra Effect explains why people don’t want to stand out. Zebras are hard to individually study as it's nearly impossible to track one of them for long (lost in the striped chaos). So scientists once put a big red dot on one zebra so he could be tracked & studied. Lions zeroed in on him and hunted him with ease. Getting lost among others is a survival mechanism. Hence the human desire to conform.
7. Why the ruler can’t rule: The executive head can’t implement his ideas on ground because the bureaucrats are closer to it, and have an agenda of their own. The Tzar of Russia had to deal with the Deep State too. Nicholas II: “I never ruled Russia. 10,000 clerks ruled Russia.”
8. Gall's law: A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. Only fools and modern technocrats try to create complex systems from scratch.
9. Minimal Self Hypothesis: Narcissism is a “strategic retreat” into the safety of one’s own self. When the future looks random, inexplicable, and informationally overwhelming, people enter survival mode. The self becomes “minimal” to reduce its surface area to pain. People today are giving up on commitment of all sorts to conserve energy for vague and upcoming disasters.
10. Tetris Syndrome: The world will eventually start looking like Tetris blocks if you play the game too much. What we do most often becomes the metaphor through which we look at the world. Takeaway: Most people today are addicted to their 2D phones - and this will hurt the general aptitude for dealing with the 3D world.
7. Why the ruler can’t rule: The executive head can’t implement his ideas on ground because the bureaucrats are closer to it, and have an agenda of their own. The Tzar of Russia had to deal with the Deep State too. Nicholas II: “I never ruled Russia. 10,000 clerks ruled Russia.”
8. Gall's law: A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. Only fools and modern technocrats try to create complex systems from scratch.
9. Minimal Self Hypothesis: Narcissism is a “strategic retreat” into the safety of one’s own self. When the future looks random, inexplicable, and informationally overwhelming, people enter survival mode. The self becomes “minimal” to reduce its surface area to pain. People today are giving up on commitment of all sorts to conserve energy for vague and upcoming disasters.
10. Tetris Syndrome: The world will eventually start looking like Tetris blocks if you play the game too much. What we do most often becomes the metaphor through which we look at the world. Takeaway: Most people today are addicted to their 2D phones - and this will hurt the general aptitude for dealing with the 3D world.
[Introspection Illusion]
We think we understand our motivations and desires, our likes and dislikes.
We believe we know ourselves and why we are the way we are.
In reality, when asked to explain our emotional states, we typically make something up.
Dig deeper, reflect more.
We think we understand our motivations and desires, our likes and dislikes.
We believe we know ourselves and why we are the way we are.
In reality, when asked to explain our emotional states, we typically make something up.
Dig deeper, reflect more.
[Gambler's Fallacy]
We think future possibilities are affected by past events.
You've lost 9 in a row, but you're sure to win the next one!
You've won 9 in a row, how could you possibly lose the next one?!
Lesson: Treat each possibility independent of the past.
We think future possibilities are affected by past events.
You've lost 9 in a row, but you're sure to win the next one!
You've won 9 in a row, how could you possibly lose the next one?!
Lesson: Treat each possibility independent of the past.
[Catharsis]
The tendency for "venting" (releasing strong emotions) to—counterintuitively—lead to strong emotions and aggressive behaviour rather than relief from emotions.
If you get accustomed to blowing off steam, you become dependent on it.
Remember: "This too shall pass.”
The tendency for "venting" (releasing strong emotions) to—counterintuitively—lead to strong emotions and aggressive behaviour rather than relief from emotions.
If you get accustomed to blowing off steam, you become dependent on it.
Remember: "This too shall pass.”
[Framework For Hiring]
Scrappy candidate scoring framework for early stage: -2 to +2
-2 would not hire and I’d be upset if we did
-1 would not hire but can be convinced otherwise
NO ZEROS
+1 would hire but can be convinced otherwise
+2 would hire and I’d be upset if we didn’t
^^ Forcing function to highlight disagreement across interviewers, also you want +2s across the board
Scrappy candidate scoring framework for early stage: -2 to +2
-2 would not hire and I’d be upset if we did
-1 would not hire but can be convinced otherwise
NO ZEROS
+1 would hire but can be convinced otherwise
+2 would hire and I’d be upset if we didn’t
^^ Forcing function to highlight disagreement across interviewers, also you want +2s across the board