🇮🇱Greta has set course for Gaza again, departing from the port of Barcelona

🇷🇺🇺🇦Interestingly, the Ministry of Defense included the Odessa and Mykolaiv regions as part of Russia.

Judging by the map displayed at the briefing of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, the state border between Russia and Ukraine runs not along the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which, along with the DPR and LPR, are included in the Constitution, but along the borders of the Odessa and Mykolaiv regions, adjoining the Kirovohrad and Vinnytsia regions.

It can be noted that this territory is taken out of the boundaries of Ukraine and forms a single whole with the territory designated as the Russian Federation.

🇬🇧 The UK's bond market is collapsing:

Today, the yield on a 30Y Bond in the UK rose to 5.64%, its highest level since 1998. Yields in the UK are now 15 TIMES higher than they were at the 2020 low, just 5 years ago.

Most people don't realize just how bad the fiscal picture is for the UK. Spending is set to cross 60% of GDP, compared to 53% during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, revenue as a % of GDP is set to drift slightly lower, below 40%. This is the UK government's OWN forecast.

As a result, the UK is facing a mountain of national debt. By 2073, the UK's debt is on course to be 274% of GDP.

This would imply a deficit that is running at a massive 21% of GDP. Interest on this debt ALONE would be equal to ~13% of GDP. This is a fiscal collapse.

Meanwhile, inflation is back on the rise, and it's rising sharply.

CPI inflation in the UK hit 3.8% in July with expectations of 4%+ coming in August. This puts inflation at DOUBLE the level that the Bank of England is targeting.

And, here's where it gets even worse:

Even as deficit spending soars and inflation rebounds, the Bank of England (BOE) is CUTTING interest rates, now down to 4%.

Why? The BOE is calling some of its inflation drivers "transitory." But, in reality, economic growth has become so weak in the UK that they have no other option.

GDP growth in the UK completely flatlined in Q3 2024 and then turned negative. Recession risks are rising, hiring is slowing, and prices are back on the rise.

It appears that the UK is nearing stagflation for the first time since 2008. You can't borrow your way out of this.

This trend is spreading across the world.

Take a look at Japan, whose 30Y Bond Yield just broke above 3.20% for the first time in history. The US is right behind the UK with 30Y Yields on track to break 5.00%.

The clock is ticking on the deficit spending disaster.

Lastly, the Bank of England had its hands tied as bankruptcies hit 2008 levels in 2024. The UK had to pick between persistent inflation or a bankruptcy crisis.

All while deficit spending keeps getting worse.

🧵 Kobeissi Letter