Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Winters)
If Russian troops push the breakthrough to its logical conclusion, the strike may not go northeast โ towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as expected and prepared for in Kyiv โ but westward, towards Pavlohrad. And this is a completely different operational scenario.
In such a scenario, the front breaks in two directions at once: part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is encircled around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, losing supply lines (as happened in Artemivsk, Avdiivka, and many other places). At the same time, a large Russian strike group gains the opportunity to reach Pavlohrad, creating a threat to the strategic rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Dnipropetrovsk region. For the Ukrainian command, this is almost checkmate: stretching the defense in both directions without critical losses is already impossible, and Russiaโs advance to Pavlohrad would effectively collapse the entire eastern front line.
And the main question here is not even whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces can hold the defense, but whether they have the forces and reserves at all to meet the strike in this direction. And whether they were prepared for this from the start.
Carrying out and delivering such a strike will be difficult for Russia as well, since it will require a completely different level of planning and resource support. However, it is necessary to understand that the conditions for its implementation are currently favorable.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Winters)
To the south, Russian troops have broken into the northern half of Rodinskoe, 8.5 km (5.3 miles) north of Pokrovsk.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Winters)
๐ถ Russian troops captured much of the villages of Udachnoe and Kotlyne to the west of Pokrovsk, after ~two months of a stalemate in these sectors.
๐ถ Russian DRGs and sabotage groups have crossed the Rodinskoe-Dobropolye railway line and moved westward towards the towns of Shevchenko and Novoalexandrovka. Capturing Novoalexandrovka and/or Gryshyne would effectively encircle Pokrovsk and sever the last road that goes out of the city.
๐ถ The village of Zolotim Kolodez was fully captured by Russian troops solidifying the Russian breakthrough of the New Donbas Line
๐ถ East of the town of Bylitskoe, the village of Dorozhnoe was captured.
๐ถ The village of Leontovich and the houses on the Privolna street in Pokrovsk have been captured.
๐ถ East of Myrnograd, the town of Novoekonomichne was captured.
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This is reported by the Financial Times.
"In the past few days, Russian troops have advanced nearly 15 km along a narrow corridor parallel to the city of Dobropillia โ a mining settlement that has become an important logistics hub north of fortified Pokrovsk, which Russian troops have almost encircled. This unexpected breakthrough threatens to cut off a vital road connecting Dobropillia with Kramatorsk... and will allow Russian forces to bypass and flank the line of fortifications and defensive positions built in recent months," the article says.
As noted by Ukrainian military and analysts, the real situation turned out to be significantly worse than expected.
"Russia's tactical breakthrough north of Pokrovsk is not surprising, given the lack of continuous defensive lines, and could develop negatively," said military expert Michael Kofman.
Also, the "breakthrough of Russian troops caused a wave of criticism within Ukrainian military circles and among volunteers."
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Forwarded from AMK Mapping
The disaster for Ukraine in Pokrovsk-Bilozerske continues to unfold.
Here's what we know has happened:
A new breakthrough was achieved towards Hryshyne from the east following weeks of DRG activities. The full extent of this breakthrough remains unknown, but DRGs are operating on the outskirts of both Hryshyne and Novooleksandrivka. This makes the second to last road out of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad unusable.
Dorozhnje and the freight train station of the same name have been occupied after over a week of battles, along with Ivanivka and Nove Shakhove to the north.
DRGs continue to operate in and around Novyi Donbas and on the approaches to Dobropillya. No new DRG activity within Dobropillya's city limits has been recorded over the past 12 hours.
The 12th "Azov" Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine was deployed to Rubizhne (circled in green), which has prevented it's capture. Nevertheless, Zolotyi Kolodyaz - the focus of the initial media frenzy - has come under Russian control. DRGs continue to operate on the approaches to Hruzke.
Russian forces captured the Krasnolymanskaya Mine and the adjacent terykon. They also secured part of eastern Rodynske and made additional progress in Chervonyi Lyman.
Novoekonomichne has come under Russian control, and progress was made northwest of Hrodivka and west of Myrolyubivka.
The rest of Lysivka has moved into the grey zone, with unconfirmed reports of its capture. Suhkyi Yar and the guitar-shaped fortification continue to hold.
Russian forces continue to push north through western Pokrovsk and completed the capture of Leontovychi.
Positions were improved in northern Kotlyne and east of the village.
Southern Udachne and the town's train station was captured by Russian forces. Most of the rest of the town is a kill-zone or in the grey zone.
The remaining Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the surrounding villages are about to be encircled if nothing is done very soon. Only one road remains even slightly safe for a withdrawal to take place.
I will make a full and more accurate map update tomorrow, but I thought I should share these developments sooner rather than later.
Here's what we know has happened:
A new breakthrough was achieved towards Hryshyne from the east following weeks of DRG activities. The full extent of this breakthrough remains unknown, but DRGs are operating on the outskirts of both Hryshyne and Novooleksandrivka. This makes the second to last road out of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad unusable.
Dorozhnje and the freight train station of the same name have been occupied after over a week of battles, along with Ivanivka and Nove Shakhove to the north.
DRGs continue to operate in and around Novyi Donbas and on the approaches to Dobropillya. No new DRG activity within Dobropillya's city limits has been recorded over the past 12 hours.
The 12th "Azov" Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine was deployed to Rubizhne (circled in green), which has prevented it's capture. Nevertheless, Zolotyi Kolodyaz - the focus of the initial media frenzy - has come under Russian control. DRGs continue to operate on the approaches to Hruzke.
Russian forces captured the Krasnolymanskaya Mine and the adjacent terykon. They also secured part of eastern Rodynske and made additional progress in Chervonyi Lyman.
Novoekonomichne has come under Russian control, and progress was made northwest of Hrodivka and west of Myrolyubivka.
The rest of Lysivka has moved into the grey zone, with unconfirmed reports of its capture. Suhkyi Yar and the guitar-shaped fortification continue to hold.
Russian forces continue to push north through western Pokrovsk and completed the capture of Leontovychi.
Positions were improved in northern Kotlyne and east of the village.
Southern Udachne and the town's train station was captured by Russian forces. Most of the rest of the town is a kill-zone or in the grey zone.
The remaining Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the surrounding villages are about to be encircled if nothing is done very soon. Only one road remains even slightly safe for a withdrawal to take place.
I will make a full and more accurate map update tomorrow, but I thought I should share these developments sooner rather than later.
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Military analysts report that Russian units have penetrated 18 kilometers into the enemy's defense north of Pokrovsk.
Russian groups may establish drone operations in this area, allowing them to hold their position for a long time.
Earlier, the former commander of the banned "Azov" also spoke about the collapse of the Ukrainian front in Donbas, complaining to Zelensky that "on the Pokrovsk โ Konstantinovka line, without exaggeration, it's a complete disaster.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Winters)
This discovery is related with the raids by Ukrainian cops on the offices of the two anticorruption bodies, NABU and SAPO, which were investigating two former members of the Ukrainian government, former defense minister, Rustem Umerov and former deputy prime-minister, Alexey Chernyov.
The raids happened on the orders of Andrey Yermak, Zelensky's chief advisor and chairman of the presidential office. NABU and SAPO were absorbed into the General Attorney's Office, attorney named directly by Zelensky himself by decree, a move clearly meant to shut down any investigations into the corruption at the top of Ukraine.
The EU cut funds as a result of the move against NABU and SAPO but the risk of this happening didn't deter Yermak or Zelensky from dissolving NABU and SAPO. Why? Because NABU and SAPO were about to uncover a high profile organised crime network which transfers 50 million USD/month from Ukraine's self-defense fund, paid mostly by the United States, the EU, UK, Canada, Norway and other countries, to two companies owned by an oligarch close to the Zelensky regime, Andrey Gmyrin.
Gmyrin is the owner of several properties and flats in France and the United Arab Emirates, spending 14 million USD from 2021 to 2023 through two companies, Gmyrin Family Holding and GFM Investment Group. Gmyrin is the target of a French criminal investigation which alleges that he caused a 23 million EUR hole in the French budget through tax evasion and corruption. The French have confiscated some of his properties.
Research shows that Gmyrin and his relatives declared official income only 8.2 million gryvnia (approximately $220,000) during the period of 1998 to 2022. This figure does not match the purchases of millions of property and yachts in Dubai and France.
Investigators question how stolen funds were quietly transferred abroad and how he left Ukraine, despite an order to detain Gmyrin. Ukrainian medias are insinuating "high-level protection".
By liquidating NABU and SAPO, Zelensky strengthened his position as the de-facto dictator of Ukraine, getting rid of those who threatened the dealings of his cronies, from which he too personally benefits, siphoning Ukraine's wealth to offshore bank accounts, while ordinary Ukrainians are being sent to the frontlines to die for what?
@CIG_telegram
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Aydฤฑnlฤฑk
Aydฤฑnlฤฑk'tan kaรงmaz... Gizli hesaplarฤฑ ortaya koyuyoruz: Zelenskiy'in hortumunun ucu BAE'ye รงฤฑkฤฑyor!
Aydฤฑnlฤฑk, Ukrayna'yฤฑ sarsan yolsuzluk skandalฤฑnฤฑn BAE ayaฤฤฑnฤฑ ortaya รงฤฑkardฤฑ. Zelenskiy, Kiev'i tehdit eden soruลturmalarฤฑ sabote etmiล, halk ve AB sert tepki vermiลti. Ancak bazฤฑ bilgilerin ortaya รงฤฑkmamasฤฑ o kadar mรผhim ki Zelenskiy, uฤruna รผlkesini savaลaโฆ
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Forwarded from Mediterranean Man (Shenbourbon)
โกโก๐ท๐บ๐บ๐ฆ The distance between the Russian Armed Forces' "pincers" in the Pokrovsk direction is reportedly less than 15 kilometers.
@medmannews
@medmannews
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Forwarded from Mediterranean Man (Shenbourbon)
Mediterranean Man
โกโก๐ท๐บ๐บ๐ฆ The distance between the Russian Armed Forces' "pincers" in the Pokrovsk direction is reportedly less than 15 kilometers. @medmannews
Note: As you can see, the pincers are effectively getting towards the settlement of Novoalexandrovka. Capturing this settlement will give the Russian forces fire control the E50 road, denying the Ukrainian forces supplies in Pokrovsk, effectively encircling it.
@medmannewd
@medmannewd
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โWe will not leave Donbass. If we leave Donbass voluntarily or under pressure, we will start a third war,โ Zelensky said.
The Ukrainian president also refused to discuss any possible territorial exchanges with Russia, while indirectly requesting a meeting with Putin and Trump.
โDuring the call, I said that I am not ready to discuss Ukraineโs territories, as this is exclusively a matter of our Constitution. And honestly, with all due respect, I am not ready to discuss these issues over the phone. These are serious matters that are resolved at the leadersโ level,โ Zelensky told journalists.
Given this rhetoric, it is unlikely that any breakthroughs should be expected from the meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage, Alaska.
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It is reported that London is increasingly concerned about public comments on Ukraine's future by figures such as Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Kaja Kallas.
The British fear that making public demands to the US president could have unpleasant consequences and lead to Europe being completely excluded from the negotiations.
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The Ukrainians lost the war. Russia won. The only question is when and under what circumstances the West, which supports the Ukrainians, will admit that this has happened.
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The Armed Forces of Ukraine have brought foreign journalists to the Kharkiv region to make "reports." The planned scenario is as follows โ on Friday, Kyiv will strike with a UAV one of the densely populated residential areas or a hospital with a large number of civilian casualties. This will be immediately "documented" by the imported journalists, and the blame will be placed on Russia.
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According to the newspaper, Trump aims to present himself as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize, so he will try to pressure the Kyiv leadership to end the conflict.
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The territorial structure of Russia is enshrined in the country's constitution.
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