Sentiment: 📊 Both #Ethereum and #SP500 bounced back to their respective May price levels in mid-August. But #Bitcoin is still lagging behind.

Bitcoin progress to next halving: 60%

Top by open interest

The income of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase in the third quarter amounted to 590.3 million dollars, while the forecast figure was 649.2 million. Accordingly, the results of this period turned out to be noticeably worse.

The change in the COIN stock price over the past 24 hours as a result looks like this.

In nominal terms, US retail sales are still strong, up 5.4% over the past year.

But after adjusting for inflation, the story changes. Real retail sales peaked in March 2021 and are down 1.6% over the past year.

Small to medium #Bitcoin addresses (0.1 to 100 $BTC) are on one of the most aggressive accumulation cycles in history, having replenished their holdings by 9% in the last 6 months alone.

#ERC20 tokens by social signal

Analyst: The reason why the heavy overvaluation line (red arrow) is higher than in previous cycles is because it includes illiquid supply - #Bitcoin has become more scarce.
If we get an LTH rally like we did in 2019, we will likely still not reach ATH. Note that unlike 2018, we already had an LTH rally in November 2021

A couple of hours ago #Maker made the largest whale move in 3 months. 24,331 $MKR ($17.4M) was transferred to the whale address, and then another move of identical size was made. In recessions, such large-scale moves often correlate with reversals.

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Over the past year, volatility has traded in a wide range
-- Bloomberg

Glassnode experts continue to study bitcoin moves by their owners. According to analysts, most cryptoinvestors are now moving their BTCs to exchanges in a state of loss.

Accordingly, they are sending coins to trading platforms in anticipation of a further market collapse and voluntarily fixing the minus. Such is the case.

SP500 has been in a drawdown for 573 days. And at this rate, it will reach a new all-time high before we see the first signs of a recession.

Given that it usually takes more than 3 years to recover from a bear market of a major recession, I don't know if this is good news or bad news.

Rate cuts are NOT bullish for the stock market