$BTC aggressively broke above the MA200 & EMA200 on the daily. That's a huge wake-up call for the bears

In 2018 & 2022 such a violent pump above the key MAs confirmed the end of the Bear Market 🐻❌

💭 I question myself: Do we have enough time to retrace this pump before the classic Bear Market runs out of time? And to be honest, it's hard to imagine what should happen to completely retrace this pump by mid October 🤷‍♂️

Maybe this Bear Market could last beyond October, but if there are no new lows by December 1st, I will flip 100% bullish

$BTC

This breakout weekly candle looks identical to the breakouts of April 2019 & January 2023 🤔

$BTC 1D chart

I'm still skeptical of this pump because we didn't hit the CVDD, even missed the Realized price and the timing is off.
👉 However, I will have to turn 100% bullish on December 1st.

Until then I'm gonna watch, maybe we'll just print a Higher Low in the next 2 months and break out of this giant inverse Head&Shoulders in December-January 📈

$BTC is testing the 50-Week MA 👀

Back in November we broke below this MA confirming the Bear Market.
Now we’re testing it, as we always do in the beginning of a 3-year Bull Market

I’m expecting a rejection here and a 10-15% correction.
Bears still have enough time to fight back 👊

$ARB $OP $SEI $APT printing Bull Divs on the Weekly 👀

Pay attention to $JUP here as it's trying to break out of the Triangle 👀

POC @ $0.5 is an easy mid-term target

So, $BTC broke above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. And it’s different from the May’s fake breakout/bull trap.

This time it’s a clear bullish breakout, similar to the one we had in January 2023 🤔

The only time in history when a Bullish Breakout above the Realized Short-Term Holder Price at the start of a new Bull Cycle fully retraced was in the Summer of 2015 🧐

2015 Bullish Breakout Zoomed in

The first attempt failed. Full retrace ❌

In 2015 $BTC had a similar bullish breakout above the 21-Week EMA, but was rejected by the 50-Week MA 🔨

The pump got fully retraced and on Bitfinex $BTC even made a new Low 🤷‍♂️

It doesn’t have to repeat the 2015 price action, $BTC was obviously smaller and less liquid back then, but this is something to consider.

Watch the 50-Week MA closely!

The 50-Week MA rejected the price 🤷‍♂️

$BTC

It’s hard to be a bear (expect new lows) when $BTC prints a monthly candle like this