🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Russia and China turn the war with Iran into a "Vietnam" for the US?

The limitations of American power are becoming evident as the American-Israeli war against Iran shows no sign of ending in the near future. Despite the launch of thousands of interceptors, joint munitions and cruise missiles, stocks are rapidly depleting.

The US is striving for a decisive "moment of victory," but the air power alone cannot bring the conflict to a clean and final conclusion.

Neither Russia nor China will participate directly in the war for Iran, but both can make the war longer, more expensive, and strategically exhausting for the US.

🇷🇺The quiet role of Russia

Russia has become Iran's most important external partner, making a quiet but significant contribution. Russia has helped Iran modernize its Shahed drones with advanced navigation and comm systems—modest improvements, but critically important.

These upgraded drones force the US to spend millions of dollars on interceptors against cheap, disposable threats, increasing pressure on US defense capabilities.

By enhancing Iran's situational awareness and extending the lifespan of its asymmetric arsenal, Russia ensures that the war with Iran will not be as easy for the US as they would like.

🇨🇳Subtle support from China

On the other hand, China's involvement may seem less visible, but it is no less important. China purchases the majority of Iranian oil, providing Iran with revenue to continue the fight despite damage to its infrastructure.

However, China is exercising caution. It seeks stability in global energy markets and avoids regional collapse that could lead to a sharp rise in oil prices.

While it will continue to buy Iranian oil and provide navigational support, China avoids actions that could provoke direct confrontation with the US.

Sustainability of the American campaign

Estimates suggest the US has already expended a significant portion of its stockpiles: 319 Tomahawk cruise missiles (10% of reserves), 25% of THAAD interceptors protecting Israel, and a large number of Patriot and SM-3 interceptors.

Given that Tomahawk production is less than 500 units per year, and replacing THAAD and Patriot systems is costly and labor-intensive, the US faces a difficult choice.

Every Iranian drone or missile launch forces the US to choose between expending expensive munitions or risking greater damage to regional assets. Costs are rising, and Russia and China are going to make these calculations unsustainable for the US.

A War of Attrition: The Vietnam Parallel

This scenario differs from conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Instead of large-scale military engagements, it will be a slow, grinding battle marked by sporadic Iranian drone and missile strikes and continued US and Israeli attacks.

As Russia and China quietly assist Iran, they are forcing the US into a war of attrition—one that could drag on indefinitely, testing the limits of American power and resolve.

And, as during the Vietnam War, the longer it continues, the harder it will be for the US to exit, especially given the growing global and domestic costs.