Lindsay Graham

"My hope is that in the coming weeks, if we can't find a diplomatic solution (Iran 🇮🇷), that we engage in a great endeavor... To those who participate in this endeavor, god bless you."

"Our date with history is upon us."

Federal Reserve's Repurchase Agreements (REPO) spiked to $30 billion today.

REPO is overnight lending to the banking system when they're short of liquidity. It's usually a sign of stress.

Why the current Feb-Apr 2026 Treasury market situation is unique with no precedent:

The Feb–Apr 2026 clusters (~$300–508 billion single-day settlements, $640–708 billion weekly) stem from a post-2020 "maturity wall" pandemic-era short-term debt (issued 2020–2022) now rolling off amid ongoing ~$2 trillion annual deficits.

This creates peacetime gross rollover volumes unprecedented in history: Total maturing debt in 2026–2028 cited in analyses: $9–15 trillion.

No prior era had this combination of scale + tight clustering before a crisis. Abnormally large rollovers like 2026's have always occurred during a financial crisis, not pre-crisis warnings. The current setup is structurally a new peacetime maturity cliff on steroids.

The U.S. has never faced a true Treasury rollover crisis in its history.

T-Bills held by the Federal Reserve has already exceeded $305 billion.
How will Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell navigate this?

I know I have already said it before. But this time it’s official. We are f*cked 🤣

🇨🇳China Now Consumes 1 in Every 3 kWh on Earth

1980
US dominated global electricity demand.

2025
#China ≈ 33% of global power consumption.
US ≈ 16–17%.

#Russia marginal.
Rest of world shrinking share.

This is the real shift....

Industrial output,Data centers,EVs,Heavy manufacturing.

#Energy is economic gravity.

And China now sits at the center of the power map.

$RCAT $PLTR $KTOS $UMAC $DPRO $ONDS | Secretary of War Pete Hegseth: "President Trump is hell bent on maintaining and accelerating the most powerful, lethal, and American made military the world has ever seen."

Hedge funds pile into commodities.

Recent price movements and geopolitical tensions have caused hedge funds to increase their commodity positions.

The commodity space is ~$5 trillion vs. NVIDIA ~$4.5 trillion.

Once meaningful capital rotates into hard assets, expect prices to explode.

🚨America Is Building Gas And Japan Is Funding It💰

The US already has 88 gas plants planned or under construction, adding 40 GW of new capacity.

🇺🇸 🇯🇵 President Trump announced the 1st projects under a $550B US–Japan trade deal, including:

• A critical minerals site in Georgia
• A Texas LNG project
• A gas power plant in Ohio

No financing details yet. But the direction is clear.

This is not just domestic build-out.
It’s coordinated energy + industrial policy.

🔹 AI + data centers → rising power demand
🔹 LNG exports → global energy leverage
🔹 Gas plants → firm capacity for renewables
🔹 Critical minerals → supply chain security

Gas is no longer just a fuel.

It’s infrastructure.
It’s diplomacy.
It’s trade strategy.

The US grid is expanding.
And allies are tying capital to it.

#oott #LNG #AI #Japan #NatGas

Yotta Data Services is building a $2 billion AI hub using 20,736 $NVDA NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPUs.

Under a $1 billion deal, Yotta will host one of APAC’s largest DGX Cloud clusters, providing massive compute for the IndiaAI Mission. The supercluster is set to go live by August.

$MP $UUUU $UAMY $USAR $LAC $CRML | U.S. officials have finalized a "price floor" system for critical minerals to de-risk private investment and counter Chinese dumping.

Led by State Dept official Jacob Helberg, the framework uses adjustable tariffs and the Pax Silica alliance.

If BlackRock were a country, it would be the 3rd largest “economy” in the world.
BlackRock manages nearly $14 trillion in Assets Under Management (AUM) — more than the GDP of most nations.

Comparison:
🇺🇸 USA — ~$27T GDP
🇨🇳 China — ~$17T GDP
🏦 BlackRock — $14T AUM
🇩🇪 Germany — ~$4.5T GDP
🇮🇳 India — ~$4T GDP

This puts into perspective how powerful global asset managers have become — influencing markets, industries, and capital flows worldwide.

Wednesday, Feb 18 2026, 12:00 UTC time

📋 US/Markets — ✅ Dollar stabilizes; Fed minutes awaited: U.S. futures and 10‑yr Treasury yields steady ahead of Fed minutes that may signal a higher bar for rate cuts as inflation lingers. Markets eye Fed guidance for policy timing. 

✅ US-China Trade — 🔖 U.S. exports to China weakening: Leader of a major U.S. seaport warns exports to China look dismal, underscoring softer trade flows and potential headwinds for US exporters and Asian supply chains. 

📌 UK — ✅ Inflation cools; BoE cut bets rise: Headline CPI eased to 3.0% in January (lowest in nearly a year), core inflation down, and producer inflation eased — boosting odds of a BoE rate cut in March and helping the FTSE 100 hit record highs. Sterling remains below $1.36. 

📋 Canada — ✅ Cooling inflation & housing softness: Inflation cooled a bit in January; existing home sales fell 5.8% in January with prices continuing to decline — mixed signals for BoC policy and domestic demand. 

🔖 Japan — ✅ Big export rebound; mixed partners: January exports surged 16.8% (biggest jump in 3 years) led by shipments to EU (+29.6%) and Asia, while exports to the U.S. fell ~5% Y/Y. Trade strength supports stocks; BOJ seen by IMF below neutral but hikes expected later. 

📌 New Zealand — ✅ RBNZ on hold; inflation to soften: RBNZ left rates unchanged, added future meetings to 2027 calendar. PPI (output and input) eased in Q4; kiwi weakened after decision but stocks rallied on bargain buying. 

📋 Australia — ✅ Wages & yields steady: Q4 annual wage growth ~3.4% with wages edging higher; leading index muted. AUD drifted lower; 10‑yr yields rebounded after wage data. 

🔖 Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania) — ✅ Inflation and yields easing: French inflation slows to 0.4% monthly and hits a 5‑year low. German housing permits rebound expected by 2025. Italian 10‑yr BTP yields at lowest since October; French 10‑yr OAT at multi‑month lows. Poland sees 10‑yr yields near 4‑year lows and improved consumer confidence; Romania revises inflation forecasts and eyes return to target by 2027. ECB policy impact seen limited if leadership changes. Euro drifts toward $1.18. 

📌 Switzerland/Europe markets — ✅ Stocks higher ahead: European stocks set for higher open; French stocks extend gains on cooling inflation backdrop. 

📋 Japan‑US economic ties — ✅ Investment & security focus: Japan trade minister says upcoming U.S. investment projects will strengthen economic security — signaling continued deepening of industrial ties. 

🔖 Energy & Geopolitics — ✅ Oil, LNG and US–Iran talks: Oil trims losses as traders weigh progress in U.S.–Iran talks; booming LNG exports draw policy debate in the U.S. on cost‑of‑living impacts. 

📌 Commodities & Safe Havens — ✅ Gold & silver muted: Gold holds losses while silver ticks up modestly ahead of Fed minutes; markets balanced between risk and policy uncertainty. 

Quick FX/Fixed income take: Dollar steady pre‑Fed; sterling gains from UK disinflation and BoE cut bets; euro softer toward $1.18; JPY supported by strong trade; global yields generally muted as inflation data cools in several advanced economies.

Wednesday, Feb 18 2026, 12:05 UTC time

📈 📋 US Mortgage Rates Snapshot
5-year ARM 5.29% (week to Feb 13): down 4 bps vs last week, down 13 bps vs prior period — lower short-term yields are easing borrowing costs.

🏠 ✅ Refinance Activity
MBA Deputy Chief Economist Kan: Lower rates “helped to revive some refinance activity.” Refinance index +7.1% (13-week), up 131.8% vs 1 year — clear pickup from higher-rate doldrums, though still volatile vs 4-week lags (-13.0%).

🛒 🔖 Purchase Market
Mortgage purchase index -2.7% (13-week), down 19.1% vs 4 weeks but +9.1% vs 1 year — purchase demand mixed: weaker on the month but improving year-on-year.

📊 📌 Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Fixed-rate mortgage index +2.5% (13-week), -15.6% vs 4 weeks, yet +53.0% vs 1 year — fixed-rate activity rising significantly year-over-year as some borrowers lock in amid rate shifts.

🔎 📋 Market Takeaway for FX & Rates Traders
- Softer short-term yields and revived refinance flows point to potential downward pressure on USD if trend persists. 
- Mixed signals from purchase indices suggest consumer sensitivity to rate moves; watch US data and Fed commentary for next directional cue. 
- Tactical: monitor mortgage indices alongside Treasury moves for rate-sensitive currency pairs (USD, CAD, AUD, EUR).

✅ Bottom Line
Lower rates are re-igniting refinance demand and boosting year-on-year mortgage activity, while purchase activity shows near-term softness. Policy and Treasury yields will drive next moves across FX and housing-sensitive assets.

#Gold miners vs S&P are set for a massive bull run

- Gold miners vs S&P are about to break out of a decade-old range
- 2011: Gold miners vs S&P were 3× higher

But this gold cycle is different

- Central banks are net buyers
- Stablecoin providers have emerged as a new demand source
- Trust in the US and USD is at a record low

I expect this gold bull market to be similar to the one in the 1970s

NVIDIA $NVDA has exited its equity stakes in $WRD WeRide, $APLD Applied Digital, and Arm Holdings $ARM as of its latest 13F filing.

The firm is reallocating capital into larger infrastructure nodes, disclosing new multi billion dollar positions in $INTC Intel and $NOK Nokia.

✈️ Notable movement of aircraft to US Bases in Europe => Middle East in the past 48 hrs:

48 x F-16
12 x F-22
18 x F-35A
6 x E-3G Sentry
1 x E-11A BACN
≈ 40 x KC-46A or KC-135 Tankers