Odds of the Fed cutting rates on March 18 dropped to 9.8%, per CME Group.

$TSLA $MBLY $AMZN $NVDA $SERV $RR | NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: "The world faces a shortage of 100 million workers due to aging populations."

"Humanoid robotics will bridge this gap in a $50 trillion industry."

Tuesday, Feb 17 2026, 12:00 UTC time

📈 📋 Latest Important Headlines — Market & Macro Brief

📌 ✅ US / Dollar & Rates\n
Dollar holds gains in thin holiday trading as markets await Fed minutes and US GDP. US 10-year yield hit a ~2½‑month low, keeping Treasury-driven risk sentiment supportive for equities.

💹 🔖 UK — Jobs, Wages & Sterling\n
U.K. jobless rate rose to near a five‑year high, payrolls show mixed signals and wage growth cooled toward a ~4‑year low. Sterling slid to about a one‑month low; markets price higher odds of a BOE rate cut as gilt yields fell (UK 10‑yr down to ~1‑month low). FTSE 100 still hitting fresh highs amid sector rotation.

🌏 📋 Australia & New Zealand\n
RBA minutes leaned hawkish on inflation risks; AUD weakened after the release. Australia 10‑yr yield fell to over a one‑month low. In NZ, food inflation rebounded and NZ equities slipped for a fourth session.

🇩🇪 ✅ Germany & Eurozone\n
German inflation confirmed at 2.1%; Bund yields slid further as growth prospects dim — DIHK warns German economy remains stuck with ~1.0% growth expected in 2026. Eurozone investor morale unexpectedly eased, keeping ECB outlook cautious.

🇮🇹 🔖 Italy & France\n
Italy’s trade surplus widened (largest in five months); BTP yields moved lower tracking global peers. French 10‑yr OAT yield hit a six‑month low as bond markets rally.

🇯🇵 📋 Japan & FX\n
Yen reversed earlier losses; EUR/USD ticked down ahead of US data — cross‑asset volatility subdued into Fed minutes.

🇨🇦 ✅ Canada & Commodities\n
TSX futures fell as gold dipped and inflation data remained a focus for Canadian markets; mining names mixed on metals moves.

🇧🇷 🔖 Global / Other Notes\n
Bitcoin upside seen capped by slowing global liquidity and rising debt. European stocks mixed to lower ahead of US macro releases; FTSE MIB and DAX cautious. Ireland & Italy report stronger exports to the US; Medtronic flags tariff impacts to FY26 EPS.

📌 📋 What traders should watch next\n
Key catalysts: Fed minutes, US GDP, further UK labour data, RBA/Fed commentary, and 10‑yr yield moves. Positioning: risk flows favor equities on lower yields but FX sensitivity to macro surprises remains high.

Digest prepared for traders — concise actionable macro & fixed income cues.

Tuesday, Feb 17 2026, 12:05 UTC time

Latest Important Headlines

📰 📋 Vulcan Materials (VMC) — 4Q Aggregates Shipments\n
📌 Aggregates shipments at Vulcan Materials rose to 55.1M tons in 4Q, beating expectations — a positive signal for U.S. construction activity and industrial demand.

✅ 🔖 Market implications (US / FX / Equities)\n
📌 Stronger-than-expected shipments point to resilient U.S. infrastructure and construction demand, supportive for industrial names and materials sectors. This can be mildly USD-positive if it feeds into stronger growth/outlook; could bolster cyclicals and bond yields if replicated across other data.

📈 📋 Trading / Strategy Notes\n
📌 Long bias on U.S. industrials/materials (including VMC) on confirmation of broader demand strength; monitor PMI, housing, and capex cues. Watch USD/JPY and commodity-linked FX for risk-on flow; tighten stops around earnings or macro surprises.

🔎 ✅ Key Data\n
📌 4Q shipments: 55.1M tons — beats consensus; focus on follow-up quarterly guidance and sectoral order books for confirmation.

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The easy #copper is gone.

New supply now requires:

- Deeper drilling
- Lower ore grades
- Smaller, more complex deposits

That means higher costs, longer timelines, and more capital risk.

Which is exactly why copper remains one of the most attractive long-term setups in commodities

Iran will close parts of the Strait of Hormuz.

- It is part of military drills
- It comes after a 2nd round of negotiations led nowhere
- And increased US military presence in the Middle East

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for:

- ~30% of seaborne oil trade
- ~20% of global LNG trade

Any disruption would have immediate implications for energy markets.

Tensions are escalating fast.

Kazakhstan and Cameco, together responsible for roughly ~60% of global #uranium supply, are effectively tightening the market.

In 2026:

- Kazakhstan plans to cut output by ~8 m lb
- That equals roughly ~5% of global uranium supply
- Cameco has signaled it will not ramp production

When the two largest suppliers choose discipline over volume, it sends a clear message.

They want to see higher prices

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📰 Top Headlines

📋 Market Drivers — Quick FX & Macro Update

✅ German CPI confirmed 2.1% y/y in Jan (Reuters)
Impact: Confirms still-moderate inflation in the Eurozone’s largest economy. Keeps ECB rate expectations steady-to-slightly-hawkish vs. earlier disinflation hopes. EUR may find support on dips, but no dramatic repricing unless momentum changes.

🔖 Germany ZEW Sentiment weaker than expected (Trading Economics)
Impact: Sentiment weakness signals growth concerns and reduced risk appetite in Europe. Short-term downside pressure for EUR and European equities; dovish narrative could limit ECB tightening expectations over time.

📌 Antofagasta 2025 core profit +52% on soaring copper prices (Reuters)
Impact: Strong copper earnings underline continued commodity strength — bullish for commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD) and mining equities. Higher commodity revenue also supports risk assets and currencies of resource exporters.

✅ Canada inflation cools to 2.3% in Jan (Dow Jones / Trading Economics)
Impact: Cooling but still above 2% keeps the BoC data-dependent: softer inflation reduces immediate hawkish pressure, so CAD could underperform vs. USD/EUR on rate-hike repricing. Market will watch core components and BoC commentary for guidance.

🔖 Cross-theme takeaways
Risk & Rates: Mixed macro: soft sentiment (ZEW) + moderate CPI in Germany vs. persistent commodity strength. Expect bouts of risk-off on growth worries, but commodity flows can offset via AUD/NZD/CAD strength when prices rise. Central banks remain data-dependent; small CPI cooling may slow tightening cycles for Canada, while Euro area remains sensitive to inflation surprises.

📋 Short-term FX positioning to watch
EUR: Supported by stickier CPI but vulnerable to sentiment shocks. 
CAD: Faces modest downside amid cooler inflation; commodity outperformance could counter. 
AUD/NZD: Beneficiaries from higher copper/metal prices and mining earnings. 
USD: Safe-haven flows likely in risk-off; watch US data for directional bias.

📌 Trade considerations
- Favor pairs reflecting commodity vs. growth-sensitivity (e.g., AUD/CAD, AUD/JPY). 
- Short EUR on sharp risk-off if ZEW-led pessimism persists and CPI fails to reaccelerate. 
- Monitor next BoC/ECB commentary and upcoming US prints for confirmation.

🔖 Bottom line
Mixed macro: moderation in some inflation prints reduces immediate tightening pressure, while commodity strength supports resource-linked FX. Sentiment indicators add downside risk to cyclical currencies; central bank forward guidance will be the key near-term driver.

#Copper deficits are projected to persist for 25 years.

- We are barely investing in new mine exploration
- When we do, it takes ~18 years to bring new copper production online
- By 2050, deficits are expected to reach ~80% of current production

This is fundamentally a time problem.

Even when we throw endless money at producing new copper, we cannot compress the timelines.

Copper’s supply-demand model is broken.

🚨 Is America Is Throwing Away Its Critical Minerals?

Buried in US mining waste:

• 229,000+ kt of aluminum
• 81,000+ kt of lead
• 3,400 kt of copper
• 1,020 kt of nickel
• Rare earths, cobalt, lithium

At the same time the US imports thousands of kilotons of these materials every year.

The real story?

Supply risk isn’t only about new mines.
It’s about reprocessing tailings already sitting on U.S. soil.

Critical minerals are not just underground.
They’re in yesterday’s waste piles.

#minerals #metals

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Trade $XAU: gains.trade/trading#XAU-USD

$BTC $ETH $IBIT $MSTR $BMNR $SBET $IREN | The White House officially backs the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, signaling a push for a federal framework.

Brokered by Secretary Bessent, the deal aims to resolve stablecoin yield issues by Feb 28 to secure US leadership.

Critical Metals $CRML reports its strongest results to date at the Tanbreez Hill Deposit, with grades up to 0.94% TREO.

Assays confirm a high 24.1% heavy rare earth component and significant gallium levels, derisking the project for 2026 development.

President Trump announces that US-Japan trade deal has officially launched, which includes:

1. $550 billion investment by Japan in the US
2. Funding an LNG facility in Texas
3. Funding a gas power plant in Ohio
4. Funding a critical minerals plant in Georgia

Top 100 24h Gainers 🚀

M              $1.52        +11.40%
NEXO        $0.9120    +6.05% 
PI            $0.1784    +4.91% 
JUP          $0.1644    +4.42% 
CC            $0.1655    +4.30% 

Top 100 24h Losers 🔻

PIPPIN    $0.4932    -29.87%
STABLE    $0.0266    -9.24% 
LIT          $1.56        -4.57% 
QNT          $68.03      -2.69% 
IP            $1.15        -2.62%

🚨 BREAKING Institutions now own 43.8% of $UAMY

Q4 2024: 48 funds
Q4 2025: 222 funds

61.3M shares. 91 new positions in Q4 alone. Including Five state pensions.

Insiders own 23.82%. That's 67.6% accounted for.