In the Middle East, the U.S. and Israel are planning to limit Iran’s oil exports to China: a regional version of the American Energy Dominance

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu met at the White House to discuss
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The regional security architecture and Israel’s concerns over the Iranian nuclear program and missile capabilities. The U.S. is diplomatically approaching Iran through high-stakes negotiations. These were held in Oman last week, with new rounds scheduled in Geneva, Switzerland.

Washington is maintaining parallel pressure on Tehran by moving a second aircraft carrier strike group, from the Caribbean Sea closer to the Persian Gulf. While threats of war sound more credible than ever, a discussion between Trump and Netanyahu over Iran’s oil exports to China emerged from reports of last week’s summit. Apparently, the two leaders agreed to exert further pressure on Iran by attempting to slash oil exports to China, a strategy that mirrors the policy the U.S. implemented in Venezuela following the capture of former President Maduro. It is, however, less clear how the U.S. might implement such a bold plan, or whether Israeli forces would be involved in an unprecedented attempt to intercept Iranian oil tankers while they are navigating towards China. A selective oil blockade on Iran’s oil would certainly have major implications for inbound and outbound energy cargoes at the Strait of Hormuz while, at the same time, the move would also have severe repercussions on China-Israel relationship. In response to the news, China’s foreign ministry reiterated that
“normal cooperation between countries conducted within the framework of international law is reasonable and legitimate, and should be respected and protected.”

After the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, any attempt to limit Iran’s oil trade with China will be perceived in Beijing as a direct threat to national energy security. Energy leverage is real leverage. Limiting adversaries' oil revenue while strengthening U.S. production shifts the balance of power without firing a shot. That's strategic pressure, not escalation. That depends on where you are sitting in the trading network of oil. Seen from Beijing, this is a clear move that threatens the security of supplies