🚨 THE WORLD RUNS THROUGH 8 STRAITS
Trade, Oil, LNG, Military power.
Key chokepoints:
• Malacca ~25% of global traded goods
• Hormuz ~25% of global oil, ~⅓ of LNG
• Singapore ~50% of global seaborne trade
• Gibraltar Atlantic ↔ Mediterranean
• Bosphorus Black Sea outlet
• Magellan Atlantic ↔ Pacific backup
• Bering Arctic gateway
• Bass Australian passage
These are pressure points.
Close Hormuz... Oil spikes.
Disrupt Malacca... Asia freezes.
Block Bosphorus... Black Sea trade halts.
Geopolitics isn’t abstract.
It’s maritime geometry.
#oott #commodity #trade
Trade, Oil, LNG, Military power.
Key chokepoints:
• Malacca ~25% of global traded goods
• Hormuz ~25% of global oil, ~⅓ of LNG
• Singapore ~50% of global seaborne trade
• Gibraltar Atlantic ↔ Mediterranean
• Bosphorus Black Sea outlet
• Magellan Atlantic ↔ Pacific backup
• Bering Arctic gateway
• Bass Australian passage
These are pressure points.
Close Hormuz... Oil spikes.
Disrupt Malacca... Asia freezes.
Block Bosphorus... Black Sea trade halts.
Geopolitics isn’t abstract.
It’s maritime geometry.
#oott #commodity #trade
🚨 NUCLEAR JUST HIT A NEW RECORD
And it’s climbing again.
• 2025 = highest global nuclear generation ever
• Set to rise steadily through 2030
• China driving most of the growth
• US stable... EU recovering
Post-2011 dip is over.
Asia is scaling reactors fast.
Why it matters:
• AI + data centers need baseload power
• Nuclear = zero-carbon + reliable
• Uranium demand strengthens structurally
This isn’t a nostalgia trade.
Nuclear is back in the energy mix.
#energy #nuclear #uranium #China
And it’s climbing again.
• 2025 = highest global nuclear generation ever
• Set to rise steadily through 2030
• China driving most of the growth
• US stable... EU recovering
Post-2011 dip is over.
Asia is scaling reactors fast.
Why it matters:
• AI + data centers need baseload power
• Nuclear = zero-carbon + reliable
• Uranium demand strengthens structurally
This isn’t a nostalgia trade.
Nuclear is back in the energy mix.
#energy #nuclear #uranium #China
OpenAI sent a memo to congress regarding Deepseek distillation:
"Sustaining the American advantage on AI depends on depends on whether we can reliably generate and deliver power at scale."
Power Delivery - $VRT, $ETN, $PWR, $WMB, $KMI
Tier-1 Energy Providers: $CEG, $VST, $TLN, $GEV, $NEE, $BEPC, $D
Grid-Energy / Storage - $TSLA, $FLNC, $NRGV, $BE
Energy: $TE, $FSLR, $NRG
This is a tailwind reiterated for these companies.
And there's a second-order tailwind for companies that already secured GW capacity like $IREN, $NBIS, $WULF, and $CIFR.
The core issue of the memo was around IP theft and national security issues. But the largest warning about sustaining an advantage was Energy.
OpenAI warning Congress that in 2024, China added 429 Gigawatts (GW) of new power capacity, which was more than a third of the entire US grid and more than half of global electricity growth. Without a radical expansion of the American power grid, they believe China’s "brute force" energy buildout will eventually allow them to surpass Western AI capabilities.
Photonics, Advanced Packaging, and Memory are three fastest growing bottlenecks right now. However, OpenAI explicitly warned the U.S. government that whoever generates the most power wins the AI race.
Their message: Invest in American Energy.
"Sustaining the American advantage on AI depends on depends on whether we can reliably generate and deliver power at scale."
Power Delivery - $VRT, $ETN, $PWR, $WMB, $KMI
Tier-1 Energy Providers: $CEG, $VST, $TLN, $GEV, $NEE, $BEPC, $D
Grid-Energy / Storage - $TSLA, $FLNC, $NRGV, $BE
Energy: $TE, $FSLR, $NRG
This is a tailwind reiterated for these companies.
And there's a second-order tailwind for companies that already secured GW capacity like $IREN, $NBIS, $WULF, and $CIFR.
The core issue of the memo was around IP theft and national security issues. But the largest warning about sustaining an advantage was Energy.
OpenAI warning Congress that in 2024, China added 429 Gigawatts (GW) of new power capacity, which was more than a third of the entire US grid and more than half of global electricity growth. Without a radical expansion of the American power grid, they believe China’s "brute force" energy buildout will eventually allow them to surpass Western AI capabilities.
Photonics, Advanced Packaging, and Memory are three fastest growing bottlenecks right now. However, OpenAI explicitly warned the U.S. government that whoever generates the most power wins the AI race.
Their message: Invest in American Energy.
⚡️Energy Demand
2024
• Fossil fuels: 79.8%
• Renewables: 15.4%
• Nuclear: 4.8%
2050 (projection)
• Fossil fuels: 67.1%
• Renewables: 26.3%
• Nuclear: 6.6%
Even in 2050,
Oil + gas + coal still dominate.
Oil barely moves.
Gas grows.
Coal declines but remains material.
The transition is additive.
Not subtractive.
Hydrocarbons don’t disappear.
They get supplemented.
That has huge implications for oil, LNG and mining capital cycles.
#oott #LNG #coal
2024
• Fossil fuels: 79.8%
• Renewables: 15.4%
• Nuclear: 4.8%
2050 (projection)
• Fossil fuels: 67.1%
• Renewables: 26.3%
• Nuclear: 6.6%
Even in 2050,
Oil + gas + coal still dominate.
Oil barely moves.
Gas grows.
Coal declines but remains material.
The transition is additive.
Not subtractive.
Hydrocarbons don’t disappear.
They get supplemented.
That has huge implications for oil, LNG and mining capital cycles.
#oott #LNG #coal
#Gold is at the heart of modern portfolio construction.
- Ray Dalio: Investors should have a 5–15% gold allocation
- Morgan Stanley: It should be more like 20%
- Bank of America: Nah, 30% is rational
- Average portfolio manager: I am at 1.9%
Despite gold’s record price rally, almost no one has a meaningful gold allocation.
We are witnessing a paradigm shift in portfolio construction, away from the traditional 60% equity / 40% bond portfolio and toward an equity / gold standard portfolio.
This bull market is far from over.
- Ray Dalio: Investors should have a 5–15% gold allocation
- Morgan Stanley: It should be more like 20%
- Bank of America: Nah, 30% is rational
- Average portfolio manager: I am at 1.9%
Despite gold’s record price rally, almost no one has a meaningful gold allocation.
We are witnessing a paradigm shift in portfolio construction, away from the traditional 60% equity / 40% bond portfolio and toward an equity / gold standard portfolio.
This bull market is far from over.
#Copper’s supply is fundamentally broken.
- By 2040, the world needs an additional 14Mt of annual copper supply
- ~50% more than today’s output
- projected deficits alone approach ~10Mt
That scale of expansion is unprecedented.
To understand how extreme this is, consider the math:
- Humanity has mined ~700 Mt of copper in total history
- Over the next 14 years, we must mine ~525Mt more
- That's equivalent of adding 10 of the world biggest copper mine
You cannot compress thousands of years of copper extraction into a single decade.
- By 2040, the world needs an additional 14Mt of annual copper supply
- ~50% more than today’s output
- projected deficits alone approach ~10Mt
That scale of expansion is unprecedented.
To understand how extreme this is, consider the math:
- Humanity has mined ~700 Mt of copper in total history
- Over the next 14 years, we must mine ~525Mt more
- That's equivalent of adding 10 of the world biggest copper mine
You cannot compress thousands of years of copper extraction into a single decade.
Monday, February 16:
🇺🇸 USA - No trading (Presidents' Day)
🇨🇳 China - No trading (Chinese New Year)
Tuesday, February 17:
🇨🇳 Hong Kong - No trading (Chinese New Year)
Wednesday, February 18:
🇨🇳 Hong Kong - No trading (Chinese New Year)
🇺🇸 USA - Minutes from the last Fed meeting
Thursday, February 19:
🇨🇳 Hong Kong - No trading (Chinese New Year)
🇺🇸 USA - Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, February 20:
🇺🇸 The US Supreme Court plans to rule on the legality of Donald Trump's trade tariffs
🇨🇳 China - No trading (Chinese New Year)
🇺🇸 USA - Fed balance sheet
🇺🇸 USA - S&P Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI (Feb)
🇺🇸 USA - Consumer inflation expectations (Feb)
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
$MP $UUUU $UAMY $USAR $LAC $CRML | EXIM President John Jovanovic: "Project Vault marries capital with our most urgent needs. Best of all, American taxpayers will earn a return on financing the first strategic critical minerals reserve in history."
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
$IREN $CLSK $CIFR $BITF $WULF $CRWV | President Trump on the race for AI dominance: “AI is going to be the biggest thing. We are leading China by a lot. I came up with a concept: each data center built is going to generate their own electricity”
🚨 China Cuts US Dollar Exposure
• FX reserves: $3.99T → $3.31T
• U.S. Treasuries: $1.32T → $683B
• Gold: 74M oz (~$370B) and rising
Is China exiting the system?
No
It’s derisking, not abandoning the dollar.
Less Treasuries.
More gold.
More strategic autonomy.
The shift matters for long-term US funding costs.
#China #gold
• FX reserves: $3.99T → $3.31T
• U.S. Treasuries: $1.32T → $683B
• Gold: 74M oz (~$370B) and rising
Is China exiting the system?
No
It’s derisking, not abandoning the dollar.
Less Treasuries.
More gold.
More strategic autonomy.
The shift matters for long-term US funding costs.
#China #gold
🔋 Cost ⬇️ Deployment ⬆️
Battery prices have collapsed in recent years.
The result:
• Installation costs for storage projects down 40% since 2024
• Utility-scale battery capacity in 2024 is 12x higher than 2020
Cheaper tech.
Faster build-out.
Grid-scale adoption accelerating.
The battery era isn’t coming.
It’s already here.
#energy
Battery prices have collapsed in recent years.
The result:
• Installation costs for storage projects down 40% since 2024
• Utility-scale battery capacity in 2024 is 12x higher than 2020
Cheaper tech.
Faster build-out.
Grid-scale adoption accelerating.
The battery era isn’t coming.
It’s already here.
#energy
MORE METALS... FEWER NEW MINES💥
Global copper, iron ore, nickel and gold output keeps rising.
But new mine discoveries peaked years ago.
So where’s the supply coming from?
Brownfields.
• 366 major brownfield mines drive a big share of output
• Existing sites expanding, going deeper, lasting longer
• Capex shifting to optimisation, not new projects
This isn’t discovery growth.
It’s squeezing more from fewer assets.
That concentrates risk.
#metals #minerals
Global copper, iron ore, nickel and gold output keeps rising.
But new mine discoveries peaked years ago.
So where’s the supply coming from?
Brownfields.
• 366 major brownfield mines drive a big share of output
• Existing sites expanding, going deeper, lasting longer
• Capex shifting to optimisation, not new projects
This isn’t discovery growth.
It’s squeezing more from fewer assets.
That concentrates risk.
#metals #minerals
🚨 CHINA’S METALS FRENZY IS BACK
Speculation is exploding.
• SHFE aluminium, copper, nickel, tin volume +86% MoM
• 78M lots in January. Highest in a year
• ~5x the average monthly volume in 2025
• Nickel alone: 30M lots. +300% MoM
⚠️This is retail speculation.
Metals became the hottest trade🚀
Exchanges responded:
• Margins raised
• Rules tightened
• 38 interventions in 2 months
When paper volume dwarfs physical reality,
volatility follows.
#copper #metals #China
Speculation is exploding.
• SHFE aluminium, copper, nickel, tin volume +86% MoM
• 78M lots in January. Highest in a year
• ~5x the average monthly volume in 2025
• Nickel alone: 30M lots. +300% MoM
⚠️This is retail speculation.
Metals became the hottest trade🚀
Exchanges responded:
• Margins raised
• Rules tightened
• 38 interventions in 2 months
When paper volume dwarfs physical reality,
volatility follows.
#copper #metals #China
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The U.S. military is rapidly expanding its footprint in the Middle East, moving additional fighter aircraft, ships, air defense, and support assets into the region. - The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is in the Indian Ocean and will soon enter the…
After the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group transits the Atlantic, the U.S. will have 2 aircraft carriers and 15 destroyers (plus a few subs) to work with across combatant commands.
Approx. 33% of the deployed U.S. Navy fleet is represented below, which can carry 600+ TLAMs.
Approx. 33% of the deployed U.S. Navy fleet is represented below, which can carry 600+ TLAMs.
👀1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
In the Middle East, the U.S. and Israel are planning to limit Iran’s oil exports to China: a regional version of the American Energy Dominance
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu met at the White House to discuss
🧵
The regional security architecture and Israel’s concerns over the Iranian nuclear program and missile capabilities. The U.S. is diplomatically approaching Iran through high-stakes negotiations. These were held in Oman last week, with new rounds scheduled in Geneva, Switzerland.
Washington is maintaining parallel pressure on Tehran by moving a second aircraft carrier strike group, from the Caribbean Sea closer to the Persian Gulf. While threats of war sound more credible than ever, a discussion between Trump and Netanyahu over Iran’s oil exports to China emerged from reports of last week’s summit. Apparently, the two leaders agreed to exert further pressure on Iran by attempting to slash oil exports to China, a strategy that mirrors the policy the U.S. implemented in Venezuela following the capture of former President Maduro. It is, however, less clear how the U.S. might implement such a bold plan, or whether Israeli forces would be involved in an unprecedented attempt to intercept Iranian oil tankers while they are navigating towards China. A selective oil blockade on Iran’s oil would certainly have major implications for inbound and outbound energy cargoes at the Strait of Hormuz while, at the same time, the move would also have severe repercussions on China-Israel relationship. In response to the news, China’s foreign ministry reiterated that
“normal cooperation between countries conducted within the framework of international law is reasonable and legitimate, and should be respected and protected.”
After the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, any attempt to limit Iran’s oil trade with China will be perceived in Beijing as a direct threat to national energy security. Energy leverage is real leverage. Limiting adversaries' oil revenue while strengthening U.S. production shifts the balance of power without firing a shot. That's strategic pressure, not escalation. That depends on where you are sitting in the trading network of oil. Seen from Beijing, this is a clear move that threatens the security of supplies
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu met at the White House to discuss
🧵
The regional security architecture and Israel’s concerns over the Iranian nuclear program and missile capabilities. The U.S. is diplomatically approaching Iran through high-stakes negotiations. These were held in Oman last week, with new rounds scheduled in Geneva, Switzerland.
Washington is maintaining parallel pressure on Tehran by moving a second aircraft carrier strike group, from the Caribbean Sea closer to the Persian Gulf. While threats of war sound more credible than ever, a discussion between Trump and Netanyahu over Iran’s oil exports to China emerged from reports of last week’s summit. Apparently, the two leaders agreed to exert further pressure on Iran by attempting to slash oil exports to China, a strategy that mirrors the policy the U.S. implemented in Venezuela following the capture of former President Maduro. It is, however, less clear how the U.S. might implement such a bold plan, or whether Israeli forces would be involved in an unprecedented attempt to intercept Iranian oil tankers while they are navigating towards China. A selective oil blockade on Iran’s oil would certainly have major implications for inbound and outbound energy cargoes at the Strait of Hormuz while, at the same time, the move would also have severe repercussions on China-Israel relationship. In response to the news, China’s foreign ministry reiterated that
“normal cooperation between countries conducted within the framework of international law is reasonable and legitimate, and should be respected and protected.”
After the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, any attempt to limit Iran’s oil trade with China will be perceived in Beijing as a direct threat to national energy security. Energy leverage is real leverage. Limiting adversaries' oil revenue while strengthening U.S. production shifts the balance of power without firing a shot. That's strategic pressure, not escalation. That depends on where you are sitting in the trading network of oil. Seen from Beijing, this is a clear move that threatens the security of supplies
✍1
US Treasury bills are considered to be one of the world's most popular risk-free investments. However, rising debt obligations and geopolitics have increased their scrutiny but they're still considered to be virtually "risk-free".
The past 1 year has seen rise in geopolitic tensions and a shift to gold reserves as a safe haven. A few countries have increased their holdings significantly in US Treasuries, while a few have decreased. Can you spot the trend?
Largest increase:
1) United Kingdom (UK): $122 bn
2) Belgium: $120 bn
3) Japan: $116 bn
4) Canada: $100 bn
5) Norway: $56 bn
Largest decrease:
1) China: $86 bn
2) Brazil: $61 bn
3) India: $48 bn
4) Hong Kong: $10 bn
5) Ireland: $3 bn
The past 1 year has seen rise in geopolitic tensions and a shift to gold reserves as a safe haven. A few countries have increased their holdings significantly in US Treasuries, while a few have decreased. Can you spot the trend?
Largest increase:
1) United Kingdom (UK): $122 bn
2) Belgium: $120 bn
3) Japan: $116 bn
4) Canada: $100 bn
5) Norway: $56 bn
Largest decrease:
1) China: $86 bn
2) Brazil: $61 bn
3) India: $48 bn
4) Hong Kong: $10 bn
5) Ireland: $3 bn