📈 U.S. Imports from China Plunge Amid Trade War and Rising Tariffs
U.S. imports from China fell sharply between May and November 2025, reflecting the impact of escalating tariffs and trade tensions. During this period, imports were 41% lower than in the same months of 2024, highlighting the accelerating shift in trade flows.
#China #USA #exports #trade #manufacturing #tariffs #DataViz
U.S. imports from China fell sharply between May and November 2025, reflecting the impact of escalating tariffs and trade tensions. During this period, imports were 41% lower than in the same months of 2024, highlighting the accelerating shift in trade flows.
#China #USA #exports #trade #manufacturing #tariffs #DataViz
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🛢️How Big is the Oil market?
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
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Western and Chinese futures markets operate under entirely different rules.
- In the West, fewer than 1–2% of contracts are settled in physical form
- Most contracts are rolled, netted, or cash-settled.
- In China, physical settlement is mandatory.
- If pyhsical settlment can't be met, traders face 20% penalties
China is where futures converge into physical reality.
This mirrors a larger structural divide:
- The West specializes in financial claims
- China specializes in physical production
Paper can set prices, but it cannot build factories.
When supply chains tighten, only one system controls the metal... and it isn’t the one trading paper.
- In the West, fewer than 1–2% of contracts are settled in physical form
- Most contracts are rolled, netted, or cash-settled.
- In China, physical settlement is mandatory.
- If pyhsical settlment can't be met, traders face 20% penalties
China is where futures converge into physical reality.
This mirrors a larger structural divide:
- The West specializes in financial claims
- China specializes in physical production
Paper can set prices, but it cannot build factories.
When supply chains tighten, only one system controls the metal... and it isn’t the one trading paper.
✍1
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Rebuilding the US military will ignite a massive commodity bull market
The most important lesson of WW II was to design military applications so that the existing US industry could produce them en masse.
Today, the US designs them based on what’s possible under ideal circumstances.
In the Iran–Israel war:
- The US depleted 25% of its THAAD interceptors (air defense)
- The US currently produces ~10 per year and lost ~120 interceptors
In its current state, the US can’t hope to win a prolonged war against either China, Iran, or Russia.
To be able to fight any of its peer competitors, the US would need to redesign its entire military application base to match the requirements of the existing US industrial base and massively increase its stockpiles and capacity.
Rebuilding the US military would require a massive increase in:
- Smelting
- Refining
- Mining
A capital-intensive, resource-intensive, and time-intensive endeavor.
In short, rebuilding the US military would ignite a massive commodity bull market.
The most important lesson of WW II was to design military applications so that the existing US industry could produce them en masse.
Today, the US designs them based on what’s possible under ideal circumstances.
In the Iran–Israel war:
- The US depleted 25% of its THAAD interceptors (air defense)
- The US currently produces ~10 per year and lost ~120 interceptors
In its current state, the US can’t hope to win a prolonged war against either China, Iran, or Russia.
To be able to fight any of its peer competitors, the US would need to redesign its entire military application base to match the requirements of the existing US industrial base and massively increase its stockpiles and capacity.
Rebuilding the US military would require a massive increase in:
- Smelting
- Refining
- Mining
A capital-intensive, resource-intensive, and time-intensive endeavor.
In short, rebuilding the US military would ignite a massive commodity bull market.
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Gold volatility can move fast. Leverage magnifies it.
Trade commodities with up to 250x leverage ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAU-USD
Gold volatility can move fast. Leverage magnifies it.
Trade commodities with up to 250x leverage ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAU-USD
The US is desperately trying to achieve mineral and processing independence.
- China produces only ~13% of global silver
- Yet controls ~70% of the world’s refined silver supply
Mining is not the advantage.... Processing is.
Silver ore is economically useless without refinement.
Refined silver is required for:
- Advanced military systems
- AI chips and high-performance electronics
It is simple:
No processed #silver. No AI revolution. No war
- China produces only ~13% of global silver
- Yet controls ~70% of the world’s refined silver supply
Mining is not the advantage.... Processing is.
Silver ore is economically useless without refinement.
Refined silver is required for:
- Advanced military systems
- AI chips and high-performance electronics
It is simple:
No processed #silver. No AI revolution. No war
AI will ignite a commodity supercycle
- Data center operators have a combined market cap of ~$27T
- They are committing to spend ~$7T
- Into sectors with a combined market cap of ~$9T
That’s the equivalent of trying to push the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.
- On paper, you can scale data centers fast.
- But in the real world, you can't scale mines, grids and factories on demand.
After more than 10 yrs of underinvestment, supply capacity is constrained across the real economy. New production takes time, capital, skilled workers and permits... none of which respond instantly.
Expect the real world to outperform the digital one.
- Data center operators have a combined market cap of ~$27T
- They are committing to spend ~$7T
- Into sectors with a combined market cap of ~$9T
That’s the equivalent of trying to push the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.
- On paper, you can scale data centers fast.
- But in the real world, you can't scale mines, grids and factories on demand.
After more than 10 yrs of underinvestment, supply capacity is constrained across the real economy. New production takes time, capital, skilled workers and permits... none of which respond instantly.
Expect the real world to outperform the digital one.
✍1
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#Tungsten's hardness and high density make it suitable for military applications in penetrating projectiles.
This is what a bullet looks like after hitting against a tungsten cube.
This is what a bullet looks like after hitting against a tungsten cube.
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#Tungsten's hardness and high density make it suitable for military applications in penetrating projectiles. This is what a bullet looks like after hitting against a tungsten cube.
Rightly so, it’s one of the purest war elements on the Periodic table. No #gas turbine, no jet engine, no drilling of anything hard without tungsten.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. Military Experts: In the next strike on Iran, the number of B‑2 Spirit strategic bombers involved will be greater than in the first strike last year. The B‑2 Spirit is used to destroy heavily fortified underground targets, and increasing the…
#Tungsten is the basic chemical element for manufacturing bombs like the GBU-57 "bunker buster," designed for deep penetration.
China, Russia, and Vietnam are among the world's top tungsten-producing countries! Rwanda is the fourth largest producer and the largest in Africa.
China, Russia, and Vietnam are among the world's top tungsten-producing countries! Rwanda is the fourth largest producer and the largest in Africa.
⚡1
▪️Waller, Fed Chairman:
- The CLARITY bill on the structure of the crypto market has stalled in Congress.
- The euphoria around cryptocurrency after the arrival of Donald Trump is fading.
- Risky deals have forced major companies to reduce their exposure to cryptocurrency.
▪️Miran, Fed Chairman:
- The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is a strategic advantage for the US.
- Revenues from tariffs replenish the budget and eventually create room for rate cuts.
- I support the use of the Fed's balance sheet during stressful periods.
▪️Bostic, Fed Chairman:
- I'm starting to notice questions about trust in the US dollar.
▪️Hammack, Fed Chairman:
- The US is on an unsustainable fiscal trajectory.
- I doubt the usefulness of stablecoins, but I don't consider them a threat to deposits.
📌 Market expectations (#FED rate):
- March 18: PAUSE.
- April 29: PAUSE.
- June 17: reduction by 25 bps to 3.25-3.50%.
- July 29: PAUSE.
- September 16: reduction by 25 bps to 3.00-3.25%.
- October 28: PAUSE.
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🚨 VENEZUELA IS NOT JUST AN OIL STORY
It’s a resource superpower.
• 🇻🇪 Oil 303B barrels, first globally
• Natural gas 5.5 Tcm, Top 10
• #Gold ~2,300 tonnes (est.)
• Iron ore ~6 Gt
• Bauxite, diamonds, #coal
Most concentrated around the Orinoco Belt & #Mining Arc.
#Venezuela isn’t a 1 commodity bet.
It’s a geology advantage.
If political normalization accelerates:
• Hydrocarbons scale first
• Mining FDI follows
• Strategic metals re-rate
Venezuela isn’t just a turnaround oil trade.
It’s a multi-resource optionality play.
#oott #NatGas
It’s a resource superpower.
• 🇻🇪 Oil 303B barrels, first globally
• Natural gas 5.5 Tcm, Top 10
• #Gold ~2,300 tonnes (est.)
• Iron ore ~6 Gt
• Bauxite, diamonds, #coal
Most concentrated around the Orinoco Belt & #Mining Arc.
#Venezuela isn’t a 1 commodity bet.
It’s a geology advantage.
If political normalization accelerates:
• Hydrocarbons scale first
• Mining FDI follows
• Strategic metals re-rate
Venezuela isn’t just a turnaround oil trade.
It’s a multi-resource optionality play.
#oott #NatGas
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🚨 IRAN RISK IS BACK ON THE OIL TAPE
And STS activity tells you why.
• Iranian STS transfers peaked ~50+ in Mar-25
• Still ~20–30 per month into 2026
• Majority routed via China-linked hubs
• Shadow flows remain active
Now overlay this:
US military reportedly preparing for weeks-long operations against Iran if ordered.
This isn’t symbolic escalation.
It’s sustained disruption risk.
Why it matters:
• Iran exports ~1.3–1.5 mb/d
• Much of it moves via STS + opaque channels
• Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil flows
If operations begin:
• STS activity collapses
• China-linked refiners scramble
• Freight rates spike
• Risk premium returns fast
The market is pricing surplus.
Geopolitics is pricing optionality.
Hormuz is the real variable.
#Iran #oott
And STS activity tells you why.
• Iranian STS transfers peaked ~50+ in Mar-25
• Still ~20–30 per month into 2026
• Majority routed via China-linked hubs
• Shadow flows remain active
Now overlay this:
US military reportedly preparing for weeks-long operations against Iran if ordered.
This isn’t symbolic escalation.
It’s sustained disruption risk.
Why it matters:
• Iran exports ~1.3–1.5 mb/d
• Much of it moves via STS + opaque channels
• Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil flows
If operations begin:
• STS activity collapses
• China-linked refiners scramble
• Freight rates spike
• Risk premium returns fast
The market is pricing surplus.
Geopolitics is pricing optionality.
Hormuz is the real variable.
#Iran #oott
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$MP $UUUU $UAMY $USAR $LAC $CRML | President Trump: "My administration has taken extraordinary steps to make sure the United States has all of the critical minerals and rare earths that we need."