Friday, Feb 13 2026, 12:00 UTC time

Latest Important Headlines

📝 📋 US Inflation & Fed Watch — Markets brace for US CPI: futures volatile, Treasury yields mixed as investors weigh if soft inflation could spark rate-cut expectations; Dallas Fed’s Miran says policy is tighter than it seems, housing inflation measurement key and fiscal outlook may lower neutral rates. 

📈 ✅ US–Taiwan Trade Deal — Agreement finalized: tariffs cut and commitments to boost purchases of US goods; seen as supportive for US exports and potentially inflation-sensitive sectors. 

🏦 🔖 Fed / Market Commentary — Miran (Dallas Fed): inflation largely under control, policy tightening risks growth, some slack in labor market remains; measurement issues (housing, fees) could distort inflation signals. 

🇯🇵 📌 Japan & Asia FX / Rates — Offshore yuan slips but posts weekly gains; South Korea export price growth slowed in December and won pauses gains; market focus ahead of US CPI keeps Asian currencies choppy. 

🇳🇿 📋 New Zealand Data — Tourist arrivals +7.0% YoY (Dec); Q1 inflation expectations highest in 2 years; NZD heads for weekly advance amid mixed local flows. 

🇨🇭 ✅ Switzerland — Swiss inflation steady at 0.1%; franc briefly softens after data but remains generally strong; SNB may have room to cut if low inflation persists. 

🇩🇪 🔖 Germany / Europe Rates — German wholesale prices rose in January; 10‑year Bund yield falls to two‑month low amid risk-off ahead of US inflation — broader eurozone yields slip. 

🇬🇧 📌 UK GDP & Gilts — Seasonal quirks in UK GDP raise economist suspicion; gilt yields edge higher as traders await US CPI for global rate cues. 

🇫🇷 📋 France / Eurozone — France sees rising decarbonised power outlook to 2035; eurozone employment and Q4 GDP hold steady — growth and jobs supporting regional resilience. 

🇮🇹 ✅ Italy Bonds — 10‑year BTP yield slides to a three‑month low on safe‑haven flows and falling European yields. 

🇷🇺 🔖 Russia Monetary Move — Russian central bank cuts key rate to 15.5% (from 16%) as growth cools; ruble eases from three‑year high. 

🇨🇳 📌 China Markets — 10‑year yield rises ahead of holiday; offshore yuan volatile but on track for weekly gain; exports to US rose despite tariffs — trade dynamics remain complex. 

🇧🇷 📋 Brazil / Commodities — Copper, silver volatile; miners rebound on dip‑buying ahead of US CPI — commodity swings to influence EM FX and risk flows. 

Market Takeaway — US CPI is the immediate market pivot: lower print could push USD/dollar down and fuel rate‑cut hopes; geopolitics and central bank moves (Russia, SNB) add regional FX pressures.

Friday, Feb 13 2026, 12:05 UTC time

📋 EU / Czech Republic — Czech central bank comments on January inflation
✅ Key point: Czech central bank published a statement on January inflation dynamics. 
🔖 Market impact: Elevated inflation or hawkish tone supports CZK strength and keeps pressure on ECB-rate-sensitive assets across Europe; watch bond yields and regional FX. 
📌 Trade note: Monitor koruna moves vs. EUR and flows into short-duration CZ government bonds.

✅ Canada / China — Titan Mining backs tariffs on Chinese graphite
✅ Key point: Titan Mining (Canada) applauds tariffs on Chinese graphite, arguing it reinforces need for domestic/Western supply chains. 
🔖 Market impact: Positive for Canadian critical-minerals producers and graphite juniors; potential supply-chain re-shoring could tighten global graphite markets and lift commodity-linked CAD sentiment. 
📌 Trade note: Watch mining equities, base/critical-metals ETF flows, and FX sensitivity in CAD vs. USD.

🔖 USA — Trump reportedly plans rollback of some steel & aluminium tariffs
✅ Key point: FT reports former President Trump aims to roll back parts of tariffs on steel and aluminium goods. 
🔖 Market impact: Easing tariffs would reduce input costs for US manufacturing, potentially boosting industrial stocks and weighing modestly on USD safe-haven flows if it reduces trade tensions. Positive for global supply chains and exporters in allied countries (EU, Canada, Japan). 
📌 Trade note: Track moves in steelmakers, industrials, and currency pairs sensitive to US growth and trade optimism (USD, CAD, EUR, JPY).

Summary view for FX/Markets: 
Inflation rhetoric in Europe, supply-chain protectionism easing in commodities, and potential US tariff rollbacks form the near-term backdrop. Expect sector rotation: miners/commodity exporters (CAD) may gain on tariffs; CZK and European assets respond to inflation signals; US industrials and risk assets could get a lift if tariff rollbacks proceed.

🔥 Macrodata (CPI):

▪️ Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (January)

FACT: 2.4%
FORECAST: 2.5%
PRED.: 2.7%

▪️ Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) (January)

FACT: 0.2% 
FORECAST: 0.3%
PRED.: 0.3%

▪️ Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) (January)

FACT: 0.3%
FORECAST: 0.3% 
PRED.: 0.2%

▪️ Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (January)

FACT: 2.5%
FORECAST: 2.5%
PRED.: 2.6%

📈 U.S. Imports from China Plunge Amid Trade War and Rising Tariffs

U.S. imports from China fell sharply between May and November 2025, reflecting the impact of escalating tariffs and trade tensions. During this period, imports were 41% lower than in the same months of 2024, highlighting the accelerating shift in trade flows.

#China #USA #exports #trade #manufacturing #tariffs #DataViz

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Western and Chinese futures markets operate under entirely different rules.

- In the West, fewer than 1–2% of contracts are settled in physical form
- Most contracts are rolled, netted, or cash-settled.
- In China, physical settlement is mandatory.
- If pyhsical settlment can't be met, traders face 20% penalties

China is where futures converge into physical reality.

This mirrors a larger structural divide:

- The West specializes in financial claims
- China specializes in physical production

Paper can set prices, but it cannot build factories.

When supply chains tighten, only one system controls the metal... and it isn’t the one trading paper.

Rebuilding the US military will ignite a massive commodity bull market

The most important lesson of WW II was to design military applications so that the existing US industry could produce them en masse.

Today, the US designs them based on what’s possible under ideal circumstances.

In the Iran–Israel war:

- The US depleted 25% of its THAAD interceptors (air defense)
- The US currently produces ~10 per year and lost ~120 interceptors

In its current state, the US can’t hope to win a prolonged war against either China, Iran, or Russia.

To be able to fight any of its peer competitors, the US would need to redesign its entire military application base to match the requirements of the existing US industrial base and massively increase its stockpiles and capacity.

Rebuilding the US military would require a massive increase in:

- Smelting
- Refining
- Mining

A capital-intensive, resource-intensive, and time-intensive endeavor.

In short, rebuilding the US military would ignite a massive commodity bull market.

The whole US military is totally dependent on China

It's not just minerals... it's everything

Creating alternative supply chains will be a huge investment trend

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The US is desperately trying to achieve mineral and processing independence.

- China produces only ~13% of global silver
- Yet controls ~70% of the world’s refined silver supply

Mining is not the advantage.... Processing is.

Silver ore is economically useless without refinement.
Refined silver is required for:

- Advanced military systems
- AI chips and high-performance electronics

It is simple:

No processed #silver. No AI revolution. No war

AI will ignite a commodity supercycle

- Data center operators have a combined market cap of ~$27T
- They are committing to spend ~$7T
- Into sectors with a combined market cap of ~$9T

That’s the equivalent of trying to push the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.

- On paper, you can scale data centers fast.
- But in the real world, you can't scale mines, grids and factories on demand.

After more than 10 yrs of underinvestment, supply capacity is constrained across the real economy. New production takes time, capital, skilled workers and permits... none of which respond instantly.

Expect the real world to outperform the digital one.

#Tungsten's hardness and high density make it suitable for military applications in penetrating projectiles.

This is what a bullet looks like after hitting against a tungsten cube.

Rightly so, it’s one of the purest war elements on the Periodic table. No #gas turbine, no jet engine, no drilling of anything hard without tungsten.

#Tungsten is the basic chemical element for manufacturing bombs like the GBU-57 "bunker buster," designed for deep penetration.

China, Russia, and Vietnam are among the world's top tungsten-producing countries! Rwanda is the fourth largest producer and the largest in Africa.