METALS 🟢
#Gold Futures in New York were up ⬆️ 0.8% to $5,072 a troy ounce,
while the U.S. dollar index fell ⬇️ 0.2% to 96.60, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers.
#Gold Futures in New York were up ⬆️ 0.8% to $5,072 a troy ounce,
while the U.S. dollar index fell ⬇️ 0.2% to 96.60, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers.
The only major countries in Europe richer than the US:
1. Norway with #oil & #gas
2. Switzerland with #banks
3. Ireland with #corporate #tax evasion schemes
The rest of Europe is throttled by regulations, overtaxation and left redistribution. Will Europe get prosperous again?
1. Norway with #oil & #gas
2. Switzerland with #banks
3. Ireland with #corporate #tax evasion schemes
The rest of Europe is throttled by regulations, overtaxation and left redistribution. Will Europe get prosperous again?
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📰 Top Headlines
📋 RBA commitment to fight inflation\n
Headline: RBA Will Do Whatever It Takes to Lower Inflation, Deputy Gov Says.\n
Implication: Hawkish rhetoric increases odds of further tightening or delayed easing. AUD likely supported versus low-yielders; local rates and bond yields may rise. Risk assets could see rotation away from rate-sensitive sectors.
✅ US payrolls beat; unemployment falls\n
Headline: US Nonfarm Payrolls Top Estimates / US Economy Seen Adding 70K Jobs / US Jobless Rate Falls to 4.3% in January.\n
Implication: Strong labor data keeps Fed on higher-for-longer path. USD strength likely across the board, boosting USD/JPY and USD/CHF; equities may wobble on tighter rate expectations while Treasury yields trend up.
🔖 Kraft Heinz pauses separation, boosts investment\n
Headline: Kraft Heinz to Pause Work on Separation, Boost Investments in Food Business.\n
Implication: Corporate capital reallocation toward operations over M&A could be seen as defensive corporate strategy amid macro uncertainty. Food sector equities may find support; modest risk-off tilt could benefit safe-haven currencies like USD and JPY.
📌 Cross-market summary & fx outlook\n
Short-term drivers: Strong US jobs + lower unemployment = USD bid; RBA hawkish comments = AUD support but limited if global risk sentiment weakens.\n
Pairs to watch:
Rates & bonds: US Treasury yields likely to push higher on payroll surprises; move could steepen curve if growth data stays resilient.
📋 Trading strategy ideas (short notes)\n
- Favor short USD carry into data surprises, but hedge for continued USD strength.\n
- Consider AUD longs vs low-yielders on RBA hawkishness but size for volatility around US payrolls.\n
- Monitor equity-to-bond flows; rising yields could pressure growth sectors—defensives and commodities may outperform.
✅ Watchlist / triggers\n
- Fed speakers and April dot plot adjustments.\n
- RBA meeting minutes for policy trajectory.\n
- Weekly US jobless claims and upcoming CPI/PCE prints for inflation trajectory.
🔖 Bottom line\n
US labor strength is the dominant short-term market driver supporting the USD and yields; RBA hawkishness gives conditional support to AUD. Corporate actions like Kraft Heinz’s shift are second-order, nudging sector flows but not overriding macro forces.
📋 RBA commitment to fight inflation\n
Headline: RBA Will Do Whatever It Takes to Lower Inflation, Deputy Gov Says.\n
Implication: Hawkish rhetoric increases odds of further tightening or delayed easing. AUD likely supported versus low-yielders; local rates and bond yields may rise. Risk assets could see rotation away from rate-sensitive sectors.
✅ US payrolls beat; unemployment falls\n
Headline: US Nonfarm Payrolls Top Estimates / US Economy Seen Adding 70K Jobs / US Jobless Rate Falls to 4.3% in January.\n
Implication: Strong labor data keeps Fed on higher-for-longer path. USD strength likely across the board, boosting USD/JPY and USD/CHF; equities may wobble on tighter rate expectations while Treasury yields trend up.
🔖 Kraft Heinz pauses separation, boosts investment\n
Headline: Kraft Heinz to Pause Work on Separation, Boost Investments in Food Business.\n
Implication: Corporate capital reallocation toward operations over M&A could be seen as defensive corporate strategy amid macro uncertainty. Food sector equities may find support; modest risk-off tilt could benefit safe-haven currencies like USD and JPY.
📌 Cross-market summary & fx outlook\n
Short-term drivers: Strong US jobs + lower unemployment = USD bid; RBA hawkish comments = AUD support but limited if global risk sentiment weakens.\n
Pairs to watch:
USD/JPY (rate differential + safe-haven flows), AUD/USD (RBA rhetoric vs USD strength), EUR/USD (risk sentiment & ECB messaging).\nRates & bonds: US Treasury yields likely to push higher on payroll surprises; move could steepen curve if growth data stays resilient.
📋 Trading strategy ideas (short notes)\n
- Favor short USD carry into data surprises, but hedge for continued USD strength.\n
- Consider AUD longs vs low-yielders on RBA hawkishness but size for volatility around US payrolls.\n
- Monitor equity-to-bond flows; rising yields could pressure growth sectors—defensives and commodities may outperform.
✅ Watchlist / triggers\n
- Fed speakers and April dot plot adjustments.\n
- RBA meeting minutes for policy trajectory.\n
- Weekly US jobless claims and upcoming CPI/PCE prints for inflation trajectory.
🔖 Bottom line\n
US labor strength is the dominant short-term market driver supporting the USD and yields; RBA hawkishness gives conditional support to AUD. Corporate actions like Kraft Heinz’s shift are second-order, nudging sector flows but not overriding macro forces.
🔥 US macroeconomic data:
▪️ Unemployment rate (January)
FACT: 4.3%
FORECAST: 4.4%
PREVIOUS.: 4.4%
</b>▪️ Change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector (January)
FACT: 130K
FORECAST: 66K
PREVIOUS.: 48K
▪️ Average hourly wage (compared to the same period last year) (y/y) (January)
FACT: 3.7%
FORECAST: 3.6%
PREVIOUS.: 3.7%
▪️ Average hourly wage (m/m) (January)
FACT: 0.4%
FORECAST: 0.3%
PREVIOUS.: 0.1%
▪️ Unemployment rate (January)
FACT: 4.3%
FORECAST: 4.4%
PREVIOUS.: 4.4%
</b>▪️ Change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector (January)
FACT: 130K
FORECAST: 66K
PREVIOUS.: 48K
▪️ Average hourly wage (compared to the same period last year) (y/y) (January)
FACT: 3.7%
FORECAST: 3.6%
PREVIOUS.: 3.7%
▪️ Average hourly wage (m/m) (January)
FACT: 0.4%
FORECAST: 0.3%
PREVIOUS.: 0.1%
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🚨 Europe cut off Russian gas and replaced it with American LNG, spending billions in the process.
What it means ?
More room for US #LNG
The real challenge isn’t supply.
It’s infrastructure and integration.
🚨 1 company owns 25% of the pipeline behind the decade's top 2 energy demand themes:
→ US LNG exports (67% growth by 2030)
→ AI power demand (163% increase in Texas data centers)
#Russia #energy
What it means ?
More room for US #LNG
The real challenge isn’t supply.
It’s infrastructure and integration.
🚨 1 company owns 25% of the pipeline behind the decade's top 2 energy demand themes:
→ US LNG exports (67% growth by 2030)
→ AI power demand (163% increase in Texas data centers)
#Russia #energy
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
EU Import Dependence on Critical Raw Materials 🇪🇺 This infographic illustrates the European Union's current reliance on non-EU countries for materials essential to the energy transition and digital economy.
China provides 97% of the EU’s magnesium and 100% of its processed rare earth elements.
Türkiye supplies 99% of the EU's boron.
For 10 out of 26 materials essential for the energy transition, the EU is 100% dependent on external sources.
Opening a mine in the EU typically takes 10 to 15 years, and in some cases, like Sweden, it can exceed 30 years due to complex environmental and social considerations.
Türkiye supplies 99% of the EU's boron.
For 10 out of 26 materials essential for the energy transition, the EU is 100% dependent on external sources.
Opening a mine in the EU typically takes 10 to 15 years, and in some cases, like Sweden, it can exceed 30 years due to complex environmental and social considerations.
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Alliance Global Partners reiterates Buy on $UAMY (United States Antimony), raising its price target to $13.50 from $8.25 after expanding critical minerals processing in the U.S.
AGP sees UAMY as a key domestic supplier amid tightening global antimony markets, citing higher NAV, stronger margins, and growing strategic importance to U.S. supply chains.
AGP sees UAMY as a key domestic supplier amid tightening global antimony markets, citing higher NAV, stronger margins, and growing strategic importance to U.S. supply chains.
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If winning the AI race means building endless data centers,
which country will win?
The country with:
- critical minerals needed for data centers
- the power to operate them
Or the country that:
- runs endless deficits to import resources
- had two decades of zero electricity generation growth
No critical minerals + energy, no AI.
which country will win?
The country with:
- critical minerals needed for data centers
- the power to operate them
Or the country that:
- runs endless deficits to import resources
- had two decades of zero electricity generation growth
No critical minerals + energy, no AI.
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🔥 57% of Europe’s LNG now comes from the US
Russia once supplied 40%+ of EU gas.
Today? America dominates LNG flows.
🇺🇸 now anchors European gas security.
🚨 1 company owns 25% of the pipeline behind the decade's top 2 energy demand themes:
→ US LNG exports (67% growth by 2030)
→ AI power demand (163% increase in Texas data centers)
#oott #LNG #Russia
Russia once supplied 40%+ of EU gas.
Today? America dominates LNG flows.
🇺🇸 now anchors European gas security.
🚨 1 company owns 25% of the pipeline behind the decade's top 2 energy demand themes:
→ US LNG exports (67% growth by 2030)
→ AI power demand (163% increase in Texas data centers)
#oott #LNG #Russia
Trump: He who has the #gold makes the rules
Putin: The US has no gold
Maybe there’s a reason there has never been an independent audit of Fort Knox
Putin: The US has no gold
Maybe there’s a reason there has never been an independent audit of Fort Knox
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📈 Copper Has Risen 140% More Than Oil Since 2022
For much of the past two decades, oil and copper prices moved largely in tandem, reflecting global growth and industrial demand. Since October 2022, however, the relationship has diverged: oil prices fell 30% through January 2026, while copper prices rose 70%. The gap highlights contrasting supply dynamics and copper’s rising demand from electrification and green technologies.
#energy #fuels #oil #CrudeOil #OOTT #WTI #copper #metals #commodity
For much of the past two decades, oil and copper prices moved largely in tandem, reflecting global growth and industrial demand. Since October 2022, however, the relationship has diverged: oil prices fell 30% through January 2026, while copper prices rose 70%. The gap highlights contrasting supply dynamics and copper’s rising demand from electrification and green technologies.
#energy #fuels #oil #CrudeOil #OOTT #WTI #copper #metals #commodity
📈 China’s Share of U.S. Imports Falls to Early-2000s Levels Amid Tariff Pressures
Higher U.S. tariffs have pushed China’s share of total U.S. imports down from 10.6% (12 months ending January 2026) to 7.5% (12 months ending November 2026) — the lowest level since 2002. During Trump 1.0, China’s share declined from 17.0% to 15.5% (–1.5 percentage points), while under the Biden presidency it fell more sharply from 15.5% to 10.6% (–4.9 percentage points).
#USA #China #trade #exports #tariffs #TradeWar
Higher U.S. tariffs have pushed China’s share of total U.S. imports down from 10.6% (12 months ending January 2026) to 7.5% (12 months ending November 2026) — the lowest level since 2002. During Trump 1.0, China’s share declined from 17.0% to 15.5% (–1.5 percentage points), while under the Biden presidency it fell more sharply from 15.5% to 10.6% (–4.9 percentage points).
#USA #China #trade #exports #tariffs #TradeWar
Ray Dalio: The world is on the brink of a capital war
Money is being weaponized.
- Trade embargoes
- Blocking access to capital markets
- Using debt ownership as leverage
Foreign holders of US debt are trapped.
- Europe fears sanctions.
- The US fears foreign buyers stop funding deficits via UST purchases.
In response, sovereign wealth funds and central banks
are preparing for capital controls.
Historically, capital wars emerge around major conflicts.
The current standoff with China could be the catalyst.
Dalio's advice: Buy #gold
Money is being weaponized.
- Trade embargoes
- Blocking access to capital markets
- Using debt ownership as leverage
Foreign holders of US debt are trapped.
- Europe fears sanctions.
- The US fears foreign buyers stop funding deficits via UST purchases.
In response, sovereign wealth funds and central banks
are preparing for capital controls.
Historically, capital wars emerge around major conflicts.
The current standoff with China could be the catalyst.
Dalio's advice: Buy #gold
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Czechs piling up #gold
- They view gold as a safe haven given the geopolitical tensions
- Gold sales rose 150-400% yoy
- The broader public and institutions are entering the market
- Many have increased physical gold holdings to 20-50%
Meanwhile, Westerners and institutions have barely allocated any meaningful amount to gold. The US, for example, has ~1.8% of its financial assets in gold.
Goldman estimated that for each 0.01% increase in gold holdings, the price of gold rises by 1.4... that’s 140x.
The real party begins once Westerners turn to gold and institutions get involved in size.
We are still early.
- They view gold as a safe haven given the geopolitical tensions
- Gold sales rose 150-400% yoy
- The broader public and institutions are entering the market
- Many have increased physical gold holdings to 20-50%
Meanwhile, Westerners and institutions have barely allocated any meaningful amount to gold. The US, for example, has ~1.8% of its financial assets in gold.
Goldman estimated that for each 0.01% increase in gold holdings, the price of gold rises by 1.4... that’s 140x.
The real party begins once Westerners turn to gold and institutions get involved in size.
We are still early.
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🇨🇳China’s port footprint in Africa is no longer just commercial.
• Dozens of ports financed, built, or managed by Chinese entities
• Concentration along key trade corridors. Red Sea, West Africa, Southern Africa
• Several locations hosting PLA Navy port calls or exercises
• A small number assessed as viable dual-use hubs
⚡️Control logistics nodes along #energy and #mineral routes
Secure access points near choke points.
This is infrastructure power projection.
Ports move containers in peacetime.
They move influence in competition.
#China #Africa
• Dozens of ports financed, built, or managed by Chinese entities
• Concentration along key trade corridors. Red Sea, West Africa, Southern Africa
• Several locations hosting PLA Navy port calls or exercises
• A small number assessed as viable dual-use hubs
⚡️Control logistics nodes along #energy and #mineral routes
Secure access points near choke points.
This is infrastructure power projection.
Ports move containers in peacetime.
They move influence in competition.
#China #Africa
📊 Global copper reality
• 700 Mt already produced
• 2.1 Bt discovered
• 3.5 Bt still undiscovered
➡️ 6.3 Bt total estimated endowment
Sounds abundant.
But demand is 25 Mt/year and rising fast, driven by EVs, grids, renewables, and data centers.
The constraint isn’t copper in the ground.
It’s grades, permitting, capex, and processing.
Geology matters.
Supply response matters more.
#copper #metals #minerals
• 700 Mt already produced
• 2.1 Bt discovered
• 3.5 Bt still undiscovered
➡️ 6.3 Bt total estimated endowment
Sounds abundant.
But demand is 25 Mt/year and rising fast, driven by EVs, grids, renewables, and data centers.
The constraint isn’t copper in the ground.
It’s grades, permitting, capex, and processing.
Geology matters.
Supply response matters more.
#copper #metals #minerals
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🇪🇺Europe’s GAS map has been rewritten
Before 2022:
• Russia via Nord Stream, Yamal, Ukraine transit = backbone
• Algeria + Norway = complementary
• LNG = marginal
Today:
• Norway = structural pillar
• LNG = strategic swing supply
• Russian pipeline gas = shrinking to residual flows (TurkStream, limited transit)
• Azerbaijan via TANAP/TAP gaining weight
Energy security in Europe now depends less on one supplier and more on infrastructure, regas capacity, and interconnectors.
Can infrastructure keep up with global dependence?
#energy #oott #Russia
Before 2022:
• Russia via Nord Stream, Yamal, Ukraine transit = backbone
• Algeria + Norway = complementary
• LNG = marginal
Today:
• Norway = structural pillar
• LNG = strategic swing supply
• Russian pipeline gas = shrinking to residual flows (TurkStream, limited transit)
• Azerbaijan via TANAP/TAP gaining weight
Energy security in Europe now depends less on one supplier and more on infrastructure, regas capacity, and interconnectors.
Can infrastructure keep up with global dependence?
#energy #oott #Russia
House Passes The Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply Act $MP $UUUU $USAR $UAMY $AREC $TMC $UURAF
Today, Chairman Brett Guthrie and Congressman John James announced House passage of key Energy and Commerce legislation designed to fortify America’s energy supply chains, curb dependence on adversarial nations, and protect the critical resources that underpin our economy and national security.
H.R. 3617, titled “Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply Act” requires the Department of Energy to assess critical energy resource supply chains, including critical minerals and rare earth elements, and to strengthen supply chains that are vulnerable to disruption or overreliance on adversarial nations.
By taking a holistic view of critical energy resources, the Department of Energy can identify vulnerabilities and address supply chain disruptions to help ensure Americans have access to affordable, reliable, and secure energy systems.
Lawmakers emphasized that critical minerals and rare earths are foundational to grid infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, defense systems, and next-generation technologies. Despite abundant domestic resources, the United States remains heavily import-dependent.
https://energycommerce.house.gov/posts/house-passes-energy-and-commerce-legislation-to-secure-american-energy-supply-chains
Today, Chairman Brett Guthrie and Congressman John James announced House passage of key Energy and Commerce legislation designed to fortify America’s energy supply chains, curb dependence on adversarial nations, and protect the critical resources that underpin our economy and national security.
H.R. 3617, titled “Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply Act” requires the Department of Energy to assess critical energy resource supply chains, including critical minerals and rare earth elements, and to strengthen supply chains that are vulnerable to disruption or overreliance on adversarial nations.
By taking a holistic view of critical energy resources, the Department of Energy can identify vulnerabilities and address supply chain disruptions to help ensure Americans have access to affordable, reliable, and secure energy systems.
Lawmakers emphasized that critical minerals and rare earths are foundational to grid infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, defense systems, and next-generation technologies. Despite abundant domestic resources, the United States remains heavily import-dependent.
https://energycommerce.house.gov/posts/house-passes-energy-and-commerce-legislation-to-secure-american-energy-supply-chains
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