EU Import Dependence on Critical Raw Materials 🇪🇺

This infographic illustrates the European Union's current reliance on non-EU countries for materials essential to the energy transition and digital economy.

Commodities ripping into the US open.

Let’s see if New York does its usual and crushes them

#GOLD #XAU/USD M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI

Gold volatility can move fast. Leverage magnifies it.

Trade commodities with up to 250x leverage ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAU-USD

Wednesday, Feb 11 2026, 12:00 UTC time

📋 US macro & markets
✅ Mixed US data softens dollar, boosts rate‑cut bets — December retail sales came in softer (within WSJ historical range); markets price Fed nearing the finish line. US futures rise ahead of a key jobs report where payrolls are expected to pick up and unemployment to hold at 4.4%. Treasury yields fell ahead of the jobs print. Credit card debt hits record highs, keeping household leverage in focus. Gold and silver gain as yields drop, supporting haven demand. Market implications: softer data = softer dollar, higher gold, Fed‑cut odds priced in.

✅ Key ticks to watch: jobs report, retail sales follow‑through, Treasury yields, gold/silver flows.

🔖 Europe & UK
✅ ECB wage tracker & yields — ECB wage tracker shows negotiated wages leveling below 3%; 2025 headline wages +3.2% with 2026 wage growth seen ~+2.4%, tempering immediate inflation upside. European yields eased: German 10Y down to four‑week low, French OAT at three‑month low, Italian BTP dips to mid‑Jan low; FTSE MIB fell >1%. Euro holds above $1.19 ahead of US jobs data. UK gilt yields fell; pound nears $1.37 as dollar softens and UK political risks ease.

✅ Italy — industrial output -0.4% in December, adding to growth concerns. Risk theme: slower activity + cooling wage pressures = more policy leeway for ECB discussion.

📌 Asia & Pacific
✅ Japan & FX — Yen holds gains after a two‑day rally as haven flows and dollar softness support JPY. Australia — RBA reiterates inflation is too high; hawkish tone keeps AUD relatively firm even as AUS 10Y yield falls to a two‑week low. New Zealand equities slipped. Copper steadies ahead of Lunar New Year; iron‑ore stabilizes on Chinese policy support hopes.

✅ China & diplomacy — Beijing warns it may target French wine if Paris pushes EU tariffs, adding geopolitics to trade risk (relevant for France/EU markets).

🔖 Russia & energy
✅ Russian fuel flows — Diesel exports from Primorsk may fall ~17% m/m in February, a note for energy markets and European supply considerations.

📌 Commodities & safe havens
✅ Gold/silver extend gains as weak US data and lower yields bolster demand; analysts see more upside while bitcoin ETFs continue inflows despite crypto selloff. Copper and base metals steady on seasonal/Chinese demand cues.

Bottom line: Softer US retail sales + dovish Fed expectations = weaker dollar, falling yields, stronger gold and JPY; ECB wage data points to modest wage pressures in Europe; RBA hawkish talk keeps AUD supported despite lower AUS yields; China‑France trade spat and Russian diesel flows add geopolitics to commodity/European supply risks.

Robert Friedland: There is not enough electricity to power America’s high-tech ambitions.

- Everything, including AI, is limited by energy.
- Data centers are consuming the equivalent of Japan’s electricity consumption.
- One ChatGPT search uses 30x more energy than a Google search.

The US is massively short energy.

Meanwhile, energy is the most hated sector within the S&P, while everyone loves AI… there is no AI without energy.

People are delusional.

Energy is the pick-and-shovel approach to AI.

Where the U.S. Gets Its Enriched #Uranium ☢️

⚡ Electricity exports (annual) – Data for 2024

1.🇫🇷 France — $6.4 billion
2.🇩🇪 Germany — $5.0 billion
3.🇨🇭 Switzerland — $4.4 billion
4.🇦🇹 Austria — $3.1 billion
5.🇸🇰 Slovakia — $2.5 billion
6.🇱🇦 Laos — $2.4 billion
7.🇨🇦 Canada — $2.2 billion
8.🇵🇱 Poland — $2.08 billion
9.🇪🇸 Spain — $2.07 billion
10.🇨🇿 Czech Republic — $2.07 billion
11.🇭🇺 Hungary — $2.04 billion
12.🇳🇴 Norway — $1.9 billion
13.🇨🇳 China — $1.7 billion
14.🇸🇪 Sweden — $1.6 billion
15.🇸🇮 Slovenia — $1.5 billion

US Dollar index #DXY/USD H2 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI

METALS 🟢

#Gold Futures in New York were up ⬆️ 0.8% to $5,072 a troy ounce,

while the U.S. dollar index fell ⬇️ 0.2% to 96.60, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers.

The only major countries in Europe richer than the US:

1. Norway with #oil & #gas

2. Switzerland with #banks

3. Ireland with #corporate #tax evasion schemes

The rest of Europe is throttled by regulations, overtaxation and left redistribution. Will Europe get prosperous again?

📰 Top Headlines

📋 RBA commitment to fight inflation\n
Headline: RBA Will Do Whatever It Takes to Lower Inflation, Deputy Gov Says.\n
Implication: Hawkish rhetoric increases odds of further tightening or delayed easing. AUD likely supported versus low-yielders; local rates and bond yields may rise. Risk assets could see rotation away from rate-sensitive sectors.

✅ US payrolls beat; unemployment falls\n
Headline: US Nonfarm Payrolls Top Estimates / US Economy Seen Adding 70K Jobs / US Jobless Rate Falls to 4.3% in January.\n
Implication: Strong labor data keeps Fed on higher-for-longer path. USD strength likely across the board, boosting USD/JPY and USD/CHF; equities may wobble on tighter rate expectations while Treasury yields trend up.

🔖 Kraft Heinz pauses separation, boosts investment\n
Headline: Kraft Heinz to Pause Work on Separation, Boost Investments in Food Business.\n
Implication: Corporate capital reallocation toward operations over M&A could be seen as defensive corporate strategy amid macro uncertainty. Food sector equities may find support; modest risk-off tilt could benefit safe-haven currencies like USD and JPY.

📌 Cross-market summary & fx outlook\n
Short-term drivers: Strong US jobs + lower unemployment = USD bid; RBA hawkish comments = AUD support but limited if global risk sentiment weakens.\n
Pairs to watch: USD/JPY (rate differential + safe-haven flows), AUD/USD (RBA rhetoric vs USD strength), EUR/USD (risk sentiment & ECB messaging).\n
Rates & bonds: US Treasury yields likely to push higher on payroll surprises; move could steepen curve if growth data stays resilient.

📋 Trading strategy ideas (short notes)\n
- Favor short USD carry into data surprises, but hedge for continued USD strength.\n
- Consider AUD longs vs low-yielders on RBA hawkishness but size for volatility around US payrolls.\n
- Monitor equity-to-bond flows; rising yields could pressure growth sectors—defensives and commodities may outperform.

✅ Watchlist / triggers\n
- Fed speakers and April dot plot adjustments.\n
- RBA meeting minutes for policy trajectory.\n
- Weekly US jobless claims and upcoming CPI/PCE prints for inflation trajectory.

🔖 Bottom line\n
US labor strength is the dominant short-term market driver supporting the USD and yields; RBA hawkishness gives conditional support to AUD. Corporate actions like Kraft Heinz’s shift are second-order, nudging sector flows but not overriding macro forces.

🔥 US macroeconomic data:

▪️ Unemployment rate (January)

FACT: 4.3%
FORECAST: 4.4%
PREVIOUS.: 4.4%

</b>▪️ Change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector (January)

FACT: 130K
FORECAST: 66K
PREVIOUS.: 48K

▪️ Average hourly wage (compared to the same period last year) (y/y) (January)

FACT: 3.7%
FORECAST: 3.6%
PREVIOUS.: 3.7%

▪️ Average hourly wage (m/m) (January)

FACT: 0.4%
FORECAST: 0.3% 
PREVIOUS.: 0.1%

China provides 97% of the EU’s magnesium and 100% of its processed rare earth elements.

Türkiye supplies 99% of the EU's boron.

For 10 out of 26 materials essential for the energy transition, the EU is 100% dependent on external sources.

Opening a mine in the EU typically takes 10 to 15 years, and in some cases, like Sweden, it can exceed 30 years due to complex environmental and social considerations.

Alliance Global Partners reiterates Buy on $UAMY (United States Antimony), raising its price target to $13.50 from $8.25 after expanding critical minerals processing in the U.S.

AGP sees UAMY as a key domestic supplier amid tightening global antimony markets, citing higher NAV, stronger margins, and growing strategic importance to U.S. supply chains.

$UAMY/USD M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI

If winning the AI race means building endless data centers,

which country will win?

The country with:

- critical minerals needed for data centers
- the power to operate them

Or the country that:

- runs endless deficits to import resources
- had two decades of zero electricity generation growth

No critical minerals + energy, no AI.

Top 100 24h Gainers 🚀

ZRO          $2.46        +40.39%
PIPPIN    $0.4784    +21.38%
UNI          $3.76        +13.12%
ASTER      $0.6990    +7.89% 
XMR          $340.20    +3.85% 

Top 100 24h Losers 🔻

MYX          $3.85        -34.75%
LIT          $1.33        -10.31%
TAO          $144.70    -8.29% 
STABLE    $0.0213    -8.28% 
MORPHO    $1.07        -6.99%