🚨 Gold just overtook the US dollar in central bank reserves
• Gold share: 13% → 24% (2021–2025) 📈
• US debt share: 28% → 23% 📉
• 2025 is the first year gold leads.
This isn’t about fear or inflation.
It’s about trust, sanctions risk, and currency credibility.
Central banks aren’t trading.
They’re re-anchoring.
If reserves are shifting quietly… when do markets fully catch up?
#gold
• Gold share: 13% → 24% (2021–2025) 📈
• US debt share: 28% → 23% 📉
• 2025 is the first year gold leads.
This isn’t about fear or inflation.
It’s about trust, sanctions risk, and currency credibility.
Central banks aren’t trading.
They’re re-anchoring.
If reserves are shifting quietly… when do markets fully catch up?
#gold
🚨 Critical Minerals Reality Check
Who digs them up ≠ who controls them
⛏️ Extraction
• #Copper → 🇨🇱 Chile
• #Nickel → 🇮🇩 Indonesia
• Cobalt → 🇨🇩 DRC
• Lithium → 🇦🇺 Australia
• Rare earths → 🇨🇳 China
🏭 Processing
• Copper, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, Rare earths → 🇨🇳 #China dominates
Mining is global. Control is Chinese.
Processing, not extraction, is the real choke point in energy, EVs, and defense.
Who cracks processing first: the US, Europe… or no one?
Who digs them up ≠ who controls them
⛏️ Extraction
• #Copper → 🇨🇱 Chile
• #Nickel → 🇮🇩 Indonesia
• Cobalt → 🇨🇩 DRC
• Lithium → 🇦🇺 Australia
• Rare earths → 🇨🇳 China
🏭 Processing
• Copper, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, Rare earths → 🇨🇳 #China dominates
Mining is global. Control is Chinese.
Processing, not extraction, is the real choke point in energy, EVs, and defense.
Who cracks processing first: the US, Europe… or no one?
🚨 Copper Margins Are Blowing Out
🔺 Copper prices near cycle highs
🔻 C1 costs historically low
➕ Gold & silver by-product credits at records
What’s happening?
• By-products are offsetting mining costs
• Energy and processing costs haven’t caught up
• Margins are at multi-year highs
This is a margin super-cycle for copper producers.
Do miners reinvest aggressively… or return cash before costs snap back?
#copper #mining #metals
🔺 Copper prices near cycle highs
🔻 C1 costs historically low
➕ Gold & silver by-product credits at records
What’s happening?
• By-products are offsetting mining costs
• Energy and processing costs haven’t caught up
• Margins are at multi-year highs
This is a margin super-cycle for copper producers.
Do miners reinvest aggressively… or return cash before costs snap back?
#copper #mining #metals
China just handed itself a strategic own goal.
Beijing tried to pressure Japan by weaponizing rare earths. Export controls. Threats. Political pressure.
Instead of weakening Sanae Takaichi, it turbo-charged her support.
Every squeeze made her message stronger:
• China is a security risk
• Japan must re-arm
• Strategic autonomy matters
Public opinion hardened. Defense spending became easier to sell. Her leadership credentials improved.
So China quietly backed down and reopened exports. Not goodwill. Fear.
Fear that Japan would accelerate domestic rare-earth production.
Fear that once Japan produces its own supply, the US and Europe won’t care about price. They’ll buy security.
That’s the real loss for China.
Not leverage today. Permanent leverage tomorrow.
Lesson:
Coercion creates resilience.
Pressure builds alternatives.
And economic weapons stop working once the target adapts.
#china #Japan #minerals
Beijing tried to pressure Japan by weaponizing rare earths. Export controls. Threats. Political pressure.
Instead of weakening Sanae Takaichi, it turbo-charged her support.
Every squeeze made her message stronger:
• China is a security risk
• Japan must re-arm
• Strategic autonomy matters
Public opinion hardened. Defense spending became easier to sell. Her leadership credentials improved.
So China quietly backed down and reopened exports. Not goodwill. Fear.
Fear that Japan would accelerate domestic rare-earth production.
Fear that once Japan produces its own supply, the US and Europe won’t care about price. They’ll buy security.
That’s the real loss for China.
Not leverage today. Permanent leverage tomorrow.
Lesson:
Coercion creates resilience.
Pressure builds alternatives.
And economic weapons stop working once the target adapts.
#china #Japan #minerals
The #uranium supply–demand model is broken
- India plans to 10x nuclear generation capacity by 2047, reaching 100 GW
- This would add 50 mlbs of annual uranium demand
- Equivalent to roughly 30% of current global uranium production
At the same time, uranium supply is expected to decline over this period.
This creates a projected cumulative deficit of 1.7B lbs...
nearly 10x current annual uranium production.
Uranium is one of my favorite long-term plays.
Trade $URA with up to 100x leverage: gains.trade/trading#URA-USD
- India plans to 10x nuclear generation capacity by 2047, reaching 100 GW
- This would add 50 mlbs of annual uranium demand
- Equivalent to roughly 30% of current global uranium production
At the same time, uranium supply is expected to decline over this period.
This creates a projected cumulative deficit of 1.7B lbs...
nearly 10x current annual uranium production.
Uranium is one of my favorite long-term plays.
Trade $URA with up to 100x leverage: gains.trade/trading#URA-USD
Almost no one is invested in #gold miners.
- All gold and gold-mining ETFs combined have a market cap of ~$600B
- Apple alone has a market cap of ~$3.65T
- Apple’s market cap is ~5× larger
- Gold miners make up just ~0.2% of the S&P’s sector weighting
We haven’t seen the big capital rotation into gold miners yet.
We’re early.
- All gold and gold-mining ETFs combined have a market cap of ~$600B
- Apple alone has a market cap of ~$3.65T
- Apple’s market cap is ~5× larger
- Gold miners make up just ~0.2% of the S&P’s sector weighting
We haven’t seen the big capital rotation into gold miners yet.
We’re early.
🚨 CHINA’S $1.19 TRILLION SURPLUS
⚔️THIS IS THE REAL TRADE WAR MAP
Forget slogans, Follow the money
China just printed one of the largest trade surpluses in history.
And the partners tell you exactly where pressure will land next.
• 🇭🇰 Hong Kong: +$304B
• 🇺🇸 United States: +$280B
• 🇮🇳 #India: +$116B
• 🇻🇳 Vietnam: +$100B
• 🇳🇱 Netherlands: +$73B
• 🇬🇧 UK: +$66B
👉 Top 3 alone = $700B+
👉 Asia + US dominate the imbalance
👉 Europe is exposed but fragmented
📌 Why this matters now
• Tariffs are back
• Supply chains are being forced to move
• India is being courted, not pressured
• Vietnam is in the crosshairs
• Europe talks strategy, but absorbs surplus
#China doesn’t need confrontation everywhere.
It just needs persistent surplus concentration.
⚠️ Trade wars don’t start where deficits are small.
They start where imbalances are politically impossible to ignore.
The next phase of global trade tension will not be ideological.
It will be arithmetical.
Who do you think Washington pressures next.
Vietnam, India, or Europe?
⚔️THIS IS THE REAL TRADE WAR MAP
Forget slogans, Follow the money
China just printed one of the largest trade surpluses in history.
And the partners tell you exactly where pressure will land next.
• 🇭🇰 Hong Kong: +$304B
• 🇺🇸 United States: +$280B
• 🇮🇳 #India: +$116B
• 🇻🇳 Vietnam: +$100B
• 🇳🇱 Netherlands: +$73B
• 🇬🇧 UK: +$66B
👉 Top 3 alone = $700B+
👉 Asia + US dominate the imbalance
👉 Europe is exposed but fragmented
📌 Why this matters now
• Tariffs are back
• Supply chains are being forced to move
• India is being courted, not pressured
• Vietnam is in the crosshairs
• Europe talks strategy, but absorbs surplus
#China doesn’t need confrontation everywhere.
It just needs persistent surplus concentration.
⚠️ Trade wars don’t start where deficits are small.
They start where imbalances are politically impossible to ignore.
The next phase of global trade tension will not be ideological.
It will be arithmetical.
Who do you think Washington pressures next.
Vietnam, India, or Europe?
US, Canadian and Australian critical minerals stocks surged during Fridays session.
Top performers include $ATMY up 27.54 percent, $UAMY up 15.42 percent, $UCU up 14.68 percent, $TMC up 13.45 percent, and $AREC up 12.64 percent. Notably, Canadian antimony explorer $MAXM, focused on highgrade projects in British Columbia, rose 7.65 percent, underscoring broader North American benefits from enhanced critical mineral security.
This development fosters economic resilience and national security through targeted stockpiling of essential materials like antimony and rare earths. #CriticalMinerals #ProjectVault
Top performers include $ATMY up 27.54 percent, $UAMY up 15.42 percent, $UCU up 14.68 percent, $TMC up 13.45 percent, and $AREC up 12.64 percent. Notably, Canadian antimony explorer $MAXM, focused on highgrade projects in British Columbia, rose 7.65 percent, underscoring broader North American benefits from enhanced critical mineral security.
This development fosters economic resilience and national security through targeted stockpiling of essential materials like antimony and rare earths. #CriticalMinerals #ProjectVault
The fight between China and the US for control of resources will ignite a commodity bull market.
- China’s Belt and Road Initiative investment surged ~75% in 2025 vs. 2024
- Spending was dominated by energy, metals&mining
We’re now seeing an important dynamic play out.
As the US tries to regain independence from China’s dominance in critical minerals, by investing in mining and processing capacity, China is almost doubling its 2024 pace.
Make no mistake: these are resource wars.
For both empires, securing supply chains and resources is a matter of national security. Access and control matter more than profits.
In this environment, you want to own resources.
He who controls downstream industries ultimately rules upstream industries.
- China’s Belt and Road Initiative investment surged ~75% in 2025 vs. 2024
- Spending was dominated by energy, metals&mining
We’re now seeing an important dynamic play out.
As the US tries to regain independence from China’s dominance in critical minerals, by investing in mining and processing capacity, China is almost doubling its 2024 pace.
Make no mistake: these are resource wars.
For both empires, securing supply chains and resources is a matter of national security. Access and control matter more than profits.
In this environment, you want to own resources.
He who controls downstream industries ultimately rules upstream industries.
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Former Hecla Mining president on #silver
- The US administration is looking to increase its silver stockpiles
- This is the first time in decades
- Silver production peaked in 2016
- Production will not reach that peak by 2030
Demand for silver is surging, while production is not.
- The US administration is looking to increase its silver stockpiles
- This is the first time in decades
- Silver production peaked in 2016
- Production will not reach that peak by 2030
Demand for silver is surging, while production is not.
Central bank gold buying is far from over
Despite record-high prices:
- Poland plans to buy as much as 150 tonnes of gold
- Poland would become one of the top 10 gold-holding countries
- Its central bank could allocate 30% of its assets to gold
#Gold is becoming the preferred reserve asset.
Despite record-high prices:
- Poland plans to buy as much as 150 tonnes of gold
- Poland would become one of the top 10 gold-holding countries
- Its central bank could allocate 30% of its assets to gold
#Gold is becoming the preferred reserve asset.
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💥China’s grip on copper isn’t at the mine
It’s at the refinery
Copper underpins electrification, grids, EVs, and clean energy systems. But the real bottleneck is refining.
In 2024, 🇨🇳 China refined roughly 12 million tonnes of copper.
That’s more than the next 9 countries combined, including the 🇺🇸 US and 🇮🇳 India.
Mining spreads risk.
Refining concentrates power.
#copper #minerals #metals #China #India
It’s at the refinery
Copper underpins electrification, grids, EVs, and clean energy systems. But the real bottleneck is refining.
In 2024, 🇨🇳 China refined roughly 12 million tonnes of copper.
That’s more than the next 9 countries combined, including the 🇺🇸 US and 🇮🇳 India.
Mining spreads risk.
Refining concentrates power.
#copper #minerals #metals #China #India
$UAMY #Antimony
UKRAINE 🇺🇦
🔸 #Ukraine is a "critical minerals superpower", possessing deposits of 117 out of the 120 most globally used metals and minerals. These resources, valued at over $26 trillion.
🔸 #Antimony
Ukraine possesses antimony deposits, though it is currently not a major producer.
The metal is recognized as a "critical" resource for Ukraine's future due to its essential role in defense technology.
#Antimony is included in the official Ukrainian government's list of critical minerals approved for development and auction.
Strategic minerals are those metallic and non-metallic resources of national importance that are essential for long-term economic development.
Critical minerals like #Antimony, however, include those already deemed strategic and others that are vital for the economy and defence, but are characterised by a lack of substitutes and a high risk of supply disruptions on the international market.
https://cms-lawnow.com/en/ealerts/2025/07/the-government-of-ukraine-has-approved-the-lists-of-strategic-and-critical-minerals#
#Antimony is one of the minerals the United States will gain access to under the landmark 2025 Mineral Resources Agreement signed with Ukraine.
https://imaginelawyers.com/legal/u-s-ukraine-minerals-agreement-and-implementation-framework/#
———
🔸 #Titanium:
Ukraine holds Europe’s largest reserves (7% of global reserves) and is one of the world's few producers of titanium ore, crucial for aerospace and defense.
———
🔸 #Lithium:
Estimates suggest nearly 500,000 tons of lithium (one of Europe's largest deposits), which is vital for electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
———
🔸 #Uranium:
Ukraine possesses Europe's largest recoverable uranium reserves (2% of world reserves), essential for nuclear power.
———
🔸 #Graphite:
The country holds 20% of the world's graphite resources, a key component for lithium-ion batteries.
———
🔸 #Manganese:
Ukraine has the world's largest proven reserves of manganese ores, primarily in the Nikopol Basin.
———
🔸 #RareEarth Elements (REEs): Significant deposits of scandium, yttrium, neodymium, and dysprosium are used in electronics and wind turbines.
———
🔸 Other Strategic Minerals: Significant reserves of beryllium, zirconium, gallium (5th largest global producer), germanium, and cobalt.
UKRAINE 🇺🇦
🔸 #Ukraine is a "critical minerals superpower", possessing deposits of 117 out of the 120 most globally used metals and minerals. These resources, valued at over $26 trillion.
🔸 #Antimony
Ukraine possesses antimony deposits, though it is currently not a major producer.
The metal is recognized as a "critical" resource for Ukraine's future due to its essential role in defense technology.
#Antimony is included in the official Ukrainian government's list of critical minerals approved for development and auction.
Strategic minerals are those metallic and non-metallic resources of national importance that are essential for long-term economic development.
Critical minerals like #Antimony, however, include those already deemed strategic and others that are vital for the economy and defence, but are characterised by a lack of substitutes and a high risk of supply disruptions on the international market.
https://cms-lawnow.com/en/ealerts/2025/07/the-government-of-ukraine-has-approved-the-lists-of-strategic-and-critical-minerals#
#Antimony is one of the minerals the United States will gain access to under the landmark 2025 Mineral Resources Agreement signed with Ukraine.
https://imaginelawyers.com/legal/u-s-ukraine-minerals-agreement-and-implementation-framework/#
———
🔸 #Titanium:
Ukraine holds Europe’s largest reserves (7% of global reserves) and is one of the world's few producers of titanium ore, crucial for aerospace and defense.
———
🔸 #Lithium:
Estimates suggest nearly 500,000 tons of lithium (one of Europe's largest deposits), which is vital for electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
———
🔸 #Uranium:
Ukraine possesses Europe's largest recoverable uranium reserves (2% of world reserves), essential for nuclear power.
———
🔸 #Graphite:
The country holds 20% of the world's graphite resources, a key component for lithium-ion batteries.
———
🔸 #Manganese:
Ukraine has the world's largest proven reserves of manganese ores, primarily in the Nikopol Basin.
———
🔸 #RareEarth Elements (REEs): Significant deposits of scandium, yttrium, neodymium, and dysprosium are used in electronics and wind turbines.
———
🔸 Other Strategic Minerals: Significant reserves of beryllium, zirconium, gallium (5th largest global producer), germanium, and cobalt.
✍1
🇺🇸US data center growth is running into a hard wall
AI and hyperscaler expansion will push demand past supply through at least 2028.
But the constraint has shifted.
It’s no longer capital.
It’s no longer chips.
⚡️It’s power availability, land access, and grid readiness.
The next phase of winners won’t be defined by ambition, but by infrastructure.
Strategies that ignore physical limits will fail first.
#energy #DataCenter #power
AI and hyperscaler expansion will push demand past supply through at least 2028.
But the constraint has shifted.
It’s no longer capital.
It’s no longer chips.
⚡️It’s power availability, land access, and grid readiness.
The next phase of winners won’t be defined by ambition, but by infrastructure.
Strategies that ignore physical limits will fail first.
#energy #DataCenter #power
Tech Giants pledge $600 Billion to the AI Buildout
Amazon Google Meta and Microsoft are funding the buildout
Here is who will benefit:
AI COMPUTE (Demand Creation)
$NVDA - AI accelerator platform
$AMD - Second GPU supply hyperscalers need
CUSTOM AI SILICON (Cost Control Layer)
$AVGO - Custom AI + networking silicon
$MRVL - Rack-level silicon + interconnect
MEMORY (AI’s Hidden Bottleneck)
$MU - HBM + DRAM backbone
$SNDK - AI storage infrastructure
MANUFACTURING (If These Stop, AI Stops)
$TSM - Leading-edge chip manufacturing
$ASML - EUV = advanced chips don’t exist without it
$AMAT - Wafer fabrication equipment
$KLAC - Yield + process control
DATA CENTER NERVOUS SYSTEM
$ANET - Switching inside AI clusters
$CRDO - High-speed GPU interconnect
AI INFRASTRUCTURE (AI Becomes A Utility)
$CIFR - AI infra landlord model
$IREN - Power + compute convergence
$NBIS - AI developer / software layer
$CRWV - On-demand GPU capacity
POWER + ELECTRIFICATION
$VRT - Cooling + electrical inside AI data centers
$CEG - Nuclear baseload power
$PWR - Grid + data center electrical buildout
$ETN - Electrical backbone of electrification
ALWAYS-ON AI (Next Phase Power)
$SMR - Scalable nuclear buildout
$OKLO - Local nuclear for AI clusters
Amazon Google Meta and Microsoft are funding the buildout
Here is who will benefit:
AI COMPUTE (Demand Creation)
$NVDA - AI accelerator platform
$AMD - Second GPU supply hyperscalers need
CUSTOM AI SILICON (Cost Control Layer)
$AVGO - Custom AI + networking silicon
$MRVL - Rack-level silicon + interconnect
MEMORY (AI’s Hidden Bottleneck)
$MU - HBM + DRAM backbone
$SNDK - AI storage infrastructure
MANUFACTURING (If These Stop, AI Stops)
$TSM - Leading-edge chip manufacturing
$ASML - EUV = advanced chips don’t exist without it
$AMAT - Wafer fabrication equipment
$KLAC - Yield + process control
DATA CENTER NERVOUS SYSTEM
$ANET - Switching inside AI clusters
$CRDO - High-speed GPU interconnect
AI INFRASTRUCTURE (AI Becomes A Utility)
$CIFR - AI infra landlord model
$IREN - Power + compute convergence
$NBIS - AI developer / software layer
$CRWV - On-demand GPU capacity
POWER + ELECTRIFICATION
$VRT - Cooling + electrical inside AI data centers
$CEG - Nuclear baseload power
$PWR - Grid + data center electrical buildout
$ETN - Electrical backbone of electrification
ALWAYS-ON AI (Next Phase Power)
$SMR - Scalable nuclear buildout
$OKLO - Local nuclear for AI clusters