All roads lead to inflation
In a decade:
- Interest expense: set to double
- Healthcare: up ~80%
- Social Security: up ~70%
- Defense: up ~20%
Together, these grow faster than GDP,
pushing the deficit ~30% higher.
All of this assumes long-term CPI inflation of ~2.4%.
If inflation runs hotter, even modestly,
spending rises faster, deficits widen,
and financing costs jump.
Which feeds inflation again.
The risk of an inflationary surge remains elevated
In a decade:
- Interest expense: set to double
- Healthcare: up ~80%
- Social Security: up ~70%
- Defense: up ~20%
Together, these grow faster than GDP,
pushing the deficit ~30% higher.
All of this assumes long-term CPI inflation of ~2.4%.
If inflation runs hotter, even modestly,
spending rises faster, deficits widen,
and financing costs jump.
Which feeds inflation again.
The risk of an inflationary surge remains elevated
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
The 22% #silver flash crash today was driven by aggressive shorting.
- Trading volume hit 1.3 million ounces this morning
- That’s nearly 2× global mine supply in a single session
- The SHFE flagged six groups of accounts for abnormal trading behavior
- Those accounts were restricted from opening new positions
This wasn’t organic selling.
It was a deliberate attempt to force prices lower using concentrated short pressure.
Someone was desperate to break silver and they pushed hard enough that the exchange had to step in.
- Trading volume hit 1.3 million ounces this morning
- That’s nearly 2× global mine supply in a single session
- The SHFE flagged six groups of accounts for abnormal trading behavior
- Those accounts were restricted from opening new positions
This wasn’t organic selling.
It was a deliberate attempt to force prices lower using concentrated short pressure.
Someone was desperate to break silver and they pushed hard enough that the exchange had to step in.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
$UAMY $NB $USAR $CRML $70 Billion Funding Push: • Bipartisan senators (led by Kevin Cramer and Mark Warner) are expected to introduce legislation today to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank, potentially adding $70 billion to support these critical mineral…
$MP $UUUU $UAMY $USAR $CRML $LAC | Senators Kevin Cramer and Mark Warner have introduced a $70B deal to expand the US Export-Import Bank.
The 10-year reauthorization lifts the lending cap to $205B to fund Trump’s critical minerals agenda and decouple supply chains from China.
The 10-year reauthorization lifts the lending cap to $205B to fund Trump’s critical minerals agenda and decouple supply chains from China.
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🚨 #VP invites allies to form a critical minerals trading bloc: "For those of you who join, we offer you a necessary foundation for private financing, and secure access to the critical mineral supplies your nation would require in an emergency or some other…
$MP $UUUU $UAMY $USAR $CRML $LAC | Vice President Vance has announced the FORGE Initiative, establishing a critical minerals trading bloc with over 50 allies.
The system uses adjustable tariffs to enforce price floors, shielding domestic miners from foreign market manipulation.
The system uses adjustable tariffs to enforce price floors, shielding domestic miners from foreign market manipulation.
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Brien Lundin: Mining stocks are still undervalued.
- Gold producers are printing money
- Their P/E ratios are at the lowest levels in history
- Large-cap gold miners are starting to outperform gold
- Juniors are beginning to outperforming the majors
Fortunes will be made, especially in the junior mining sector.
- Gold producers are printing money
- Their P/E ratios are at the lowest levels in history
- Large-cap gold miners are starting to outperform gold
- Juniors are beginning to outperforming the majors
Fortunes will be made, especially in the junior mining sector.
📦 The World Runs on Imports
Some More Than Others
This map shows imports as % of GDP.
• EU average 46% → structurally trade dependent
• US 14% → scale = insulation
• #China 17% → manufacturing depth matters
Small hubs dominate the top:
• Hong Kong 178%
• #Luxembourg 160%
• #Singapore 144%
High import reliance = exposure to freight, FX, geopolitics
Low reliance = policy flexibility and shock absorption
Global trade isn’t fragile everywhere.
It’s fragile where dependence is highest.
#trade #GDP
Some More Than Others
This map shows imports as % of GDP.
• EU average 46% → structurally trade dependent
• US 14% → scale = insulation
• #China 17% → manufacturing depth matters
Small hubs dominate the top:
• Hong Kong 178%
• #Luxembourg 160%
• #Singapore 144%
High import reliance = exposure to freight, FX, geopolitics
Low reliance = policy flexibility and shock absorption
Global trade isn’t fragile everywhere.
It’s fragile where dependence is highest.
#trade #GDP
New listing ✨
Pure-play #uranium exposure, on-chain.
$URNM is now tradable.
Trade $URNM with up to 100x leverage:➡️ gains.trade/trading#URNM-USD
Pure-play #uranium exposure, on-chain.
$URNM is now tradable.
Trade $URNM with up to 100x leverage:
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Inflation just got a second wind.
The Fed has agreed to purchase $40 billion in Treasuries per month.
Here’s how it works:
- The Fed creates money to buy Treasuries
- The Treasury spends that money into the economy via deficits
The result:
- Money supply expands
- Inflationary pressures increase
Elevated inflation will be the dominant macro trend in the coming years.
The Fed has agreed to purchase $40 billion in Treasuries per month.
Here’s how it works:
- The Fed creates money to buy Treasuries
- The Treasury spends that money into the economy via deficits
The result:
- Money supply expands
- Inflationary pressures increase
Elevated inflation will be the dominant macro trend in the coming years.
This is a good reminder of how small the physical #silver market really is and how easy it is to manipulate it
- Paper silver to physical silver ratio: 408:1
- Annual silver production: ~$70B
If just ~0.25% of paper silver were settled in physical, it would wipe out 1 year of global silver production.
- Paper silver to physical silver ratio: 408:1
- Annual silver production: ~$70B
If just ~0.25% of paper silver were settled in physical, it would wipe out 1 year of global silver production.
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
A lot has been said.
A lot has been debated.
Now let’s look at what commodities actually did over the last year.
• #Oil ↓ ~10%
Low prices feel fine in the short term.
But they quietly choke capex.
Underinvestment always shows up later as tighter supply.
That’s how oil cycles turn.
• #Copper ↑ ~35%
Electrification. EVs. Grids. AI data centers.
Demand is structural.
Supply is slow, capital-intensive, and constrained.
Price is just following the math.
• #Gold ↑ ~72%
Not just inflation.
Not just fear.
This is about currency credibility, central bank buying, and real rates.
• #Silver ↑ ~159%
Half monetary. Half industrial.
When growth expectations and debasement collide,
silver doesn’t move. It overreacts.
Geopolitics drives volatility.
Fundamentals drive direction.
For investors in real assets,
volatility is the noise.
Supply curves and demand math are the signal.
That’s where conviction is built.
#oott #metals #energy
A lot has been debated.
Now let’s look at what commodities actually did over the last year.
• #Oil ↓ ~10%
Low prices feel fine in the short term.
But they quietly choke capex.
Underinvestment always shows up later as tighter supply.
That’s how oil cycles turn.
• #Copper ↑ ~35%
Electrification. EVs. Grids. AI data centers.
Demand is structural.
Supply is slow, capital-intensive, and constrained.
Price is just following the math.
• #Gold ↑ ~72%
Not just inflation.
Not just fear.
This is about currency credibility, central bank buying, and real rates.
• #Silver ↑ ~159%
Half monetary. Half industrial.
When growth expectations and debasement collide,
silver doesn’t move. It overreacts.
Geopolitics drives volatility.
Fundamentals drive direction.
For investors in real assets,
volatility is the noise.
Supply curves and demand math are the signal.
That’s where conviction is built.
#oott #metals #energy
New listing ✨
Natural gas: powering industries and heating economies.
$NATGAS is now tradable on-chain.
Trade $NATGAS with up to 150x leverage:➡️ gains.trade/trading#NATGAS-USD
Natural gas: powering industries and heating economies.
$NATGAS is now tradable on-chain.
Trade $NATGAS with up to 150x leverage:
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New listing ✨
Brent crude: one of the most actively traded energy benchmarks worldwide.
$BRENT is now tradable on-chain.
Trade $BRENT with up to 150x leverage:➡️ gains.trade/trading#BRENT-USD
Brent crude: one of the most actively traded energy benchmarks worldwide.
$BRENT is now tradable on-chain.
Trade $BRENT with up to 150x leverage:
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#HG/USD M15 #Copper #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI Trade key industrial and precious metals with up to 250x leverage, as commodities continue to see renewed momentum. ➡️ gains.trade/trading#HG-USD
#HG/USD M15 #Copper
#Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Trade key industrial and precious metals with up to 250x leverage, as commodities continue to see renewed momentum.
➡️ gains.trade/trading#HG-USD
#Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Trade key industrial and precious metals with up to 250x leverage, as commodities continue to see renewed momentum.
➡️ gains.trade/trading#HG-USD
Imagine being a country with no major natural resources.
And choosing higher energy costs anyway.
Imagine relying on energy-intensive industries.
and deliberately squeezing their competitiveness.
Imagine a world where AI and data centers drive power demand higher every year.
And opting out of cheap, reliable energy.
⚠️Now imagine doing all of this voluntarily.
#Germany didn’t lose its edge overnight.
It chose to give it up.
#energy #nuclear
Trade $URA with up to 100x leverage: gains.trade/trading#URA-USD
Trade $URNM with up to 100x leverage: gains.trade/trading#URNM-USD
And choosing higher energy costs anyway.
Imagine relying on energy-intensive industries.
and deliberately squeezing their competitiveness.
Imagine a world where AI and data centers drive power demand higher every year.
And opting out of cheap, reliable energy.
⚠️Now imagine doing all of this voluntarily.
#Germany didn’t lose its edge overnight.
It chose to give it up.
#energy #nuclear
Trade $URA with up to 100x leverage: gains.trade/trading#URA-USD
Trade $URNM with up to 100x leverage: gains.trade/trading#URNM-USD
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Robert Friedland to Trump: You can’t reindustrialize without a lot of metal
- Everything you touch has to be mined
- Mining is just 1% of the S&P
- Down from 11% in the 1960s
Morale among miners with regard to the Trump administration is sky high
Reshoring America’s industry and gaining independence from China will ignite a historic commodity bull market.
- Everything you touch has to be mined
- Mining is just 1% of the S&P
- Down from 11% in the 1960s
Morale among miners with regard to the Trump administration is sky high
Reshoring America’s industry and gaining independence from China will ignite a historic commodity bull market.
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