🧵 First—apologies for my absence.
IRL duties called.
But Baghdad didn't pause.
Three initials just surfaced from the Coordination Framework: S-U-Z.
They're vetting an independent oil/gas technocrat. Twenty-two years of experience. No militia ties. And notably—Nouri al-Maliki isn't on their candidate list.
The Framework met at 2 AM. Produced nine names. Excluded the guy who's blocked reform for years.
Why the next 72 hours matter:
• Thursday: Presidential naming session. They pick or stall.
• Saturday: Budget vote deadline. No government, no execution.
The pattern is shifting. They've moved from arguing about candidates to selecting one. The street rate volatility—hitting 2,000 then dropping—wasn't chaos. It was pressure releasing because the political blockage is clearing.
What to watch this week:
1. Thursday's framework session
2. Which initials get the nomination
3. Saturday's budget vote
The dominoes aren't scattered anymore. They're lined up.
IRL duties called.
But Baghdad didn't pause.
Three initials just surfaced from the Coordination Framework: S-U-Z.
They're vetting an independent oil/gas technocrat. Twenty-two years of experience. No militia ties. And notably—Nouri al-Maliki isn't on their candidate list.
The Framework met at 2 AM. Produced nine names. Excluded the guy who's blocked reform for years.
Why the next 72 hours matter:
• Thursday: Presidential naming session. They pick or stall.
• Saturday: Budget vote deadline. No government, no execution.
The pattern is shifting. They've moved from arguing about candidates to selecting one. The street rate volatility—hitting 2,000 then dropping—wasn't chaos. It was pressure releasing because the political blockage is clearing.
What to watch this week:
1. Thursday's framework session
2. Which initials get the nomination
3. Saturday's budget vote
The dominoes aren't scattered anymore. They're lined up.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🧵 First—apologies for my absence. IRL duties called. But Baghdad didn't pause. Three initials just surfaced from the Coordination Framework: S-U-Z. They're vetting an independent oil/gas technocrat. Twenty-two years of experience. No militia ties. And…
🚨 New satellite imagery shows activity at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan.
What we're seeing:
• 12+ F-15E Strike Eagles
• 9+ A-10C Thunderbolts
• Positioned for rapid response scenarios
Why this combination matters:
The assets deployed suggest preparation beyond standard deterrence. Heavy strike aircraft paired with close air support platforms indicates operational planning rather than presence patrols.
The location matters too:
This base sits at a distance from the Gulf. Close enough for short flight times. Far enough to create geographic separation between forward assets and primary installations.
What the positioning suggests:
When you deploy this aircraft combination to this location, you're creating a launch capability—not a defensive screen. The visible deployment, confirmed by satellite imagery released today, also serves psychological purposes.
The timeline question:
Every day without diplomatic movement, the probability of transition from preparation to action increases. The window is compressed. Measured in days, not months.
What to watch:
• Official statements from regional capitals
• Movement of proxy forces
• Shifts in diplomatic posture
The pressure is at maximum. The margin for delay decreases daily.
What we're seeing:
• 12+ F-15E Strike Eagles
• 9+ A-10C Thunderbolts
• Positioned for rapid response scenarios
Why this combination matters:
The assets deployed suggest preparation beyond standard deterrence. Heavy strike aircraft paired with close air support platforms indicates operational planning rather than presence patrols.
The location matters too:
This base sits at a distance from the Gulf. Close enough for short flight times. Far enough to create geographic separation between forward assets and primary installations.
What the positioning suggests:
When you deploy this aircraft combination to this location, you're creating a launch capability—not a defensive screen. The visible deployment, confirmed by satellite imagery released today, also serves psychological purposes.
The timeline question:
Every day without diplomatic movement, the probability of transition from preparation to action increases. The window is compressed. Measured in days, not months.
What to watch:
• Official statements from regional capitals
• Movement of proxy forces
• Shifts in diplomatic posture
The pressure is at maximum. The margin for delay decreases daily.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🚨 New satellite imagery shows activity at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan. What we're seeing: • 12+ F-15E Strike Eagles • 9+ A-10C Thunderbolts • Positioned for rapid response scenarios Why this combination matters: The assets deployed suggest preparation…
💰 February 3, 2026: The White House announced creation of a $12 billion critical mineral reserve.
Copper. Lithium. Rare earth elements. The industrial inputs that run modern economies.
Why this matters for the bigger picture:
When governments start stockpiling strategic commodities, they're preparing for supply chain restructuring. For commodity price volatility. For fundamental transition in how value settles.
This announcement doesn't exist in isolation.
What's happening simultaneously:
• Regional political transitions (Iraq PM selection in final phase)
• Military asset positioning in critical locations
• Bond market signalling liquidity events
• Infrastructure positioning for regulatory clarity
• Treaty expirations creating diplomatic windows
The convergence pattern:
Multiple independent tracks all accelerating toward the same temporal window. Economic preparation happening while political and military structures shift.
What asset-backed systems require:
1. Physical asset identification
2. Settlement infrastructure
3. Political clearing
4. Military security
5. Liquidity activation
All five areas showing activity simultaneously.
The question isn't whether transition happens.
The question is which event in the next 72 hours triggers the cascade.
Keep watching:
• Industrial commodity prices
• Infrastructure regulatory developments
• Political formation completion signals
• International SSA's
The preparation phase is complete.
The activation phase is approaching.
Copper. Lithium. Rare earth elements. The industrial inputs that run modern economies.
Why this matters for the bigger picture:
When governments start stockpiling strategic commodities, they're preparing for supply chain restructuring. For commodity price volatility. For fundamental transition in how value settles.
This announcement doesn't exist in isolation.
What's happening simultaneously:
• Regional political transitions (Iraq PM selection in final phase)
• Military asset positioning in critical locations
• Bond market signalling liquidity events
• Infrastructure positioning for regulatory clarity
• Treaty expirations creating diplomatic windows
The convergence pattern:
Multiple independent tracks all accelerating toward the same temporal window. Economic preparation happening while political and military structures shift.
What asset-backed systems require:
1. Physical asset identification
2. Settlement infrastructure
3. Political clearing
4. Military security
5. Liquidity activation
All five areas showing activity simultaneously.
The question isn't whether transition happens.
The question is which event in the next 72 hours triggers the cascade.
Keep watching:
• Industrial commodity prices
• Infrastructure regulatory developments
• Political formation completion signals
• International SSA's
The preparation phase is complete.
The activation phase is approaching.
✍1
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
Reserves don’t equal power🛢️
Access does 🇺🇸
#Venezuela holds 303 bn barrels.
#Iran 209 bn.
#Iraq 145 bn.
The US knows this
Recent moves aren’t random
• Pressure on Iran stays tight
• Venezuela access is negotiated
• Iraq remains strategically managed
• Gulf partners stay anchored
Washington doesn’t need the biggest reserves.
It needs leverage over the ones that matter.
Flow beats stock.
Control beats ownership.
Access does 🇺🇸
#Venezuela holds 303 bn barrels.
#Iran 209 bn.
#Iraq 145 bn.
The US knows this
Recent moves aren’t random
• Pressure on Iran stays tight
• Venezuela access is negotiated
• Iraq remains strategically managed
• Gulf partners stay anchored
Washington doesn’t need the biggest reserves.
It needs leverage over the ones that matter.
Flow beats stock.
Control beats ownership.
JP Morgan: #Gold to hit 8500 by the end of the decade
Private investor allocation just has to rise from 3% to 4.6%
I wouldn’t be surprised if a standard portfolio allocation ends up much higher
Private investor allocation just has to rise from 3% to 4.6%
I wouldn’t be surprised if a standard portfolio allocation ends up much higher
On February 4, 2026, #SecRubio will host the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial at the #StateDept. The U.S. will welcome delegations from over 50 nations to advance collective efforts to strengthen and diversify critical minerals supply chains.
👀1
Macro Releases: Wednesday, Feb 4 🗓
Time: 8.15 am ET.⏳
🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
Time: 9.00 am ET.⏳
🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Dec)
Time: 10.00 am ET.⏳
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jan)
Time: 8.15 am ET.
Time: 9.00 am ET.
Time: 10.00 am ET.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Rick Rule: Oil is hated, so he is bullish.
- Wall Street is using peak oil demand of 2030
- The IEA has now pushed peak oil demand to 2060
In other words, Wall Street is massively underestimating oil revenues beyond 2030.
The vilification of the oil industry has led major lenders to leave the space, increasing the cost of capital. Oil companies globally are now underinvesting in their businesses by $1–2B per day, in favor of returning cash to shareholders.
The oil industry is living off investments made a decade ago:
- Since 2019, 90% of CapEx has been committed just to maintain current production levels
- Since 2010, annual discoveries are down 60%
Sooner rather than later, this deferred capital spending will lead to lower production and higher prices.
Low prices are the cure for low prices.
- Wall Street is using peak oil demand of 2030
- The IEA has now pushed peak oil demand to 2060
In other words, Wall Street is massively underestimating oil revenues beyond 2030.
The vilification of the oil industry has led major lenders to leave the space, increasing the cost of capital. Oil companies globally are now underinvesting in their businesses by $1–2B per day, in favor of returning cash to shareholders.
The oil industry is living off investments made a decade ago:
- Since 2019, 90% of CapEx has been committed just to maintain current production levels
- Since 2010, annual discoveries are down 60%
Sooner rather than later, this deferred capital spending will lead to lower production and higher prices.
Low prices are the cure for low prices.
$TMC $OMEX
Deep-Sea Mining:
• Trump’s US$12bn “Project Vault” accelerates deep-sea mining to secure vital minerals and reduce reliance on China’s industrial supply chain
The administration is reportedly drafting an executive order to accelerate mining on the Pacific Ocean floorfor nodules containing nickel, cobalt, and manganese.
Deep-Sea Mining:
• Trump’s US$12bn “Project Vault” accelerates deep-sea mining to secure vital minerals and reduce reliance on China’s industrial supply chain
The administration is reportedly drafting an executive order to accelerate mining on the Pacific Ocean floorfor nodules containing nickel, cobalt, and manganese.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
On February 4, 2026, #SecRubio will host the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial at the #StateDept. The U.S. will welcome delegations from over 50 nations to advance collective efforts to strengthen and diversify critical minerals supply chains.
$UAMY $USAR $NB $CRML
All Eyes On DC:
Key Schedule & Events for Today (Feb 4, 2026):
•9:00 a.m. EST: Opening remarks by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and other officials.
•Morning/Early Afternoon: The summit brings together delegations from over 50 countries to sign a nonbinding Framework Agreement on Cooperation on Critical Minerals Sourcing and Processing.
•10:15 a.m. EST: Secretary Rubio will host a press availability for credentialed media.
•11:50 a.m. EST: Critical Minerals Ministerial family photo with Secretary Rubio and visiting heads of delegation.
•Throughout the Day: Discussions aimed at establishing "Project Vault," a strategic reserve for U.S. industry with $10 billion in potential EXIM Bank financing and $2 billion in private capital.
•Related Events: The CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program is also hosting a "Securing Critical Mineral Supply" government-industry dialogue.
Context for the Summit:
•Project Vault: Aimed at countering China's 70% control of rare earth mining and 90% control of processing.
•Diplomatic Activity: Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and other international officials are participating.
•Goal: To establish a "Pax Silica" framework to coordinate policy for critical mineral sourcing.
All Eyes On DC:
Key Schedule & Events for Today (Feb 4, 2026):
•9:00 a.m. EST: Opening remarks by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and other officials.
•Morning/Early Afternoon: The summit brings together delegations from over 50 countries to sign a nonbinding Framework Agreement on Cooperation on Critical Minerals Sourcing and Processing.
•10:15 a.m. EST: Secretary Rubio will host a press availability for credentialed media.
•11:50 a.m. EST: Critical Minerals Ministerial family photo with Secretary Rubio and visiting heads of delegation.
•Throughout the Day: Discussions aimed at establishing "Project Vault," a strategic reserve for U.S. industry with $10 billion in potential EXIM Bank financing and $2 billion in private capital.
•Related Events: The CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program is also hosting a "Securing Critical Mineral Supply" government-industry dialogue.
Context for the Summit:
•Project Vault: Aimed at countering China's 70% control of rare earth mining and 90% control of processing.
•Diplomatic Activity: Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and other international officials are participating.
•Goal: To establish a "Pax Silica" framework to coordinate policy for critical mineral sourcing.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
$ONDS 🤯 Ondas now have a drone mothership that can carry up to TEN drones that have swarm capabilities and can travel 120kmh! I’m in awe of this company. Beyond incredible resupply, endurance, and missile/javelin capabilities, the Blue UAS-certified DT…
DRONES: $ONDS $RDW $RCAT $UAVS $AIRO $DPRO
The Pentagon is asking 25 companies to demo their unmanned one-way attack drones at an upcoming evaluation event that will help determine a future prototype buy,
The Pentagon is asking 25 companies to demo their unmanned one-way attack drones at an upcoming evaluation event that will help determine a future prototype buy,
⚡1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
$UAMY $MP $UUUU 1. Right out of the gates, they intend to start purchasing critical minerals. 2. The Administration already signed up 12+ OEMS. (Boeing , Google, GM, GE Vernova , Corning ) 3. They can go out and spend this $12 Billion quickly.
$UAMY $USAR $CRML
• Critical Minerals
The US plans to announce as many as 11 bilateral trade agreements
• Critical Minerals
The US plans to announce as many as 11 bilateral trade agreements
✍1
$UAMY $USAR $NB
The EU's critical minerals
list includes 34 raw materials, of which 17 are designated Strategic Raw Materials because they are deemed most essential for the green and digital transition, as well as for defence and aerospace.
The EU's critical minerals
list includes 34 raw materials, of which 17 are designated Strategic Raw Materials because they are deemed most essential for the green and digital transition, as well as for defence and aerospace.
👀1
Shanghai #silver: $105
Western silver price: $90
Shanghai premium: $15
China’s silver demand remains strong.
Western silver price: $90
Shanghai premium: $15
China’s silver demand remains strong.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The evolving US critical-minerals strategy runs on three tracks. 🔹Firstly, it introduced White House-driven ‘America First’ deals, focused on deeper state intervention in domestic projects. 🔹 Secondly, it expanded into bilateral agreements overseas, supported…
$CRML Greenland's Foreign Minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, has expressed optimism about reaching a diplomatic agreement with the United States
👀1
#SILICON
$GSIT
• Designs & sells SRAM memory chips (silicon CMOS)
• Customers: defense, networking, HPC, radar systems
$QUIK
• eFPGA + ultra-low-power SoCs
• Manufactures custom silicon used in:
– edge AI
– wearables
– industrial IoT
• Uses standard CMOS silicon processes
$MX
Pure silicon analog/power ICs
$HIMX
silicon IC designer
$MXL
Silicon RF & broadband ICs
$GSIT
• Designs & sells SRAM memory chips (silicon CMOS)
• Customers: defense, networking, HPC, radar systems
$QUIK
• eFPGA + ultra-low-power SoCs
• Manufactures custom silicon used in:
– edge AI
– wearables
– industrial IoT
• Uses standard CMOS silicon processes
$MX
Pure silicon analog/power ICs
$HIMX
silicon IC designer
$MXL
Silicon RF & broadband ICs