US–China rivalry 💥

#China dominates the physical layer of the energy transition:
• Rare earth refining: 92%
• Lithium refining: 70%
• Aluminium refining: 59%
• #Copper refining: 44%

The US dominates the digital layer:
• Data center capacity: 44% vs China 26%

Hardware vs software.
Atoms vs electrons.

One controls the inputs.
The other controls the compute.

#energy

Global #copper inventories are plunging.

- Copper inventories are down 60% since the 2024 high
- They only cover ~2 days of copper consumption
- Long-term average is 12 days
- We are 80% below that

Copper deficits are piling up.

Metals still under pressure

When volatility hit, positioning mattered more than narratives.

• Violent pullback. Not random.

• Forced de-risking across every crowded trade

• Precious metals, base metals, Asia tech, short USD . all hit together

The tape tells the story:

• #GOLD : -7% today after -9% Friday → biggest 2-day drop in a decade

• #Silver : -12% today after -26% → worst drop on record

Where is the new level?

The SILVER sell off is not about demand

Silver is down double digits in days📉
While industrial demand is structurally locked📈

• 38% of demand is electronics
• 29% is solar
• >65% is non-discretionary industrial use
• Jewellery + investment are marginal at the margin

This is a positioning event.

What’s really happening.

• Macro longs were crowded
• Volatility spiked
• VAR limits hit
• Liquidation followed price . not fundamentals

Industrial buyers don’t sell dips.
Financial flows do.

That’s the mismatch.

Price trades the paper market.
Demand lives in the real one.

Where is the clearing level?

#Silver #Metals

🇨🇳China installed 256 GW of solar in H1 2025 🔋

🌍The rest of the world combined did 124 GW.

That’s more than 2x

Look at the acceleration:

• 37 GW in 2022
• 98 GW in 2023
• 125 GW in 2024
• 256 GW in 2025

That’s exponential.

#China controls:
• Panel production
• Supply chains
• Installation velocity

Everyone else reacts.
China sets the clearing pace.
Where is the bottleneck grid, capital or materials?
#energy #Solar

⚠️ Volatility is back ⚠️

This is not a trend change.
It’s a volatility event.

#GOLD -5%.
#Silver -10%.

Same move.
Same driver.

Mechanics first.

• Speculators crowded in
• Volatility spiked
• Institutions stepped aside
• Paper flows took control

This is a shakeout.
Not a fundamental break.

Oil fits the pattern.

#Brent -5%.
Risk premium cooled as #Iran–US tension eased.

Volatility clears positioning.
Not narratives.

Is this the reset or just the first volatility wave?

#oott #commodity

$USAR $CRML $UAMY

The United States will push for a joint "pricing mechanism" among allied nations to weaken China's dominance in the rare earth market at a critical minerals ministerial meeting in Washington on February 4.

The initiative is seen as an attempt by the US and its allies to establish a "price defense line" to protect mining and refining companies from China's low-cost rare earth offensive and secure stable supply chains.

Jacob Helberg, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment, told Bloomberg on Thursday that the US government would seek agreement on a pricing mechanism to protect rare earth refiners and miners at the meeting.

$NB $METC

$NGAS/USD H2 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI

Shanghai #silver price: 122 -> 102$
Western silver price: 79 -> 73$

This will be an interesting week.

There is no commodity bull market without energy.

We saw a tight correlation between energy and commodities until 2025.

Commodities surged while energy went nowhere.

I expect energy to follow commodities.

Retailers are buying the dip in #gold.

- Australia
- Singapore
- Thailand

Are queuing to buy gold.

With MKS PAMP SA, a leading bullion brand, sold out for the day.

We are in a commodity bull market and no one is positioned for it

- Commodities vs financial assets are at a historic low
- At the peak of the 2000s bull market, the ratio was ~8x higher
- At the peak of the 1980s bull market, the ratio was ~45x higher

Commodities remain ultra cheap vs financial assets.

Since the 1980s, interest rates and inflation steadily fell, providing a tailwind for growth stocks. This lowered the risk-free rate (the US 10-year yield) and pushed investors further out the risk curve.

Companies and real estate investors benefited as well, they could refinance debt at ever-lower rates, enjoying a 40-year tailwind for their businesses.

That trend ended in 2021.

Reckless government spending across the globe led to surging inflation and interest rates. This means the winners of the last 40 years won’t be the winners of the next.

Our current macro picture resembles war:

- Future cash flows are less certain
- Access to commodities and energy is less certain
- Inflation and interest rates are elevated

Commodities and hard assets outperform in this environment.

Volatility in gold and silver is breathtaking.

Within a few hours

- Gold: 4450 -> 4790
- Silver: 72 -> 83

Trump Launches $12 Billion Minerals Stockpile to Counter China $MP $UUUU $UAMY $USAR $NB $AREC

The Trump administration is preparing to establish a $12 billion strategic stockpile of critical minerals to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese supplies and protect American manufacturers from supply disruptions.

The initiative, known as Project Vault, will combine $10 billion in financing from the U.S. Export-Import Bank with $1.67 billion in private capital to procure and store minerals essential for manufacturing, according to Bloomberg News, citing senior administration officials who requested anonymity ahead of the official announcement.

The stockpile will function similarly to the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve but will focus on minerals such as gallium and cobalt that are crucial for products including iPhones, batteries, and jet engines.

More than a dozen companies have already joined the project, including General Motors Co., Stellantis NV, Boeing Co., Corning Inc., GE Vernova Inc., and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. Three commodities trading firms – Hartree Partners LP, Traxys North America LLC, and Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. – will manage the purchasing of raw materials.

The Ex-Im Bank’s board is scheduled to vote Monday on authorizing the 15-year loan, which would be more than twice the size of the bank’s previous largest deal.
This public-private partnership represents a significant step in Trump’s efforts to reduce U.S. reliance on China, which currently dominates global critical mineral production and processing.

For those who don’t know the difference between the new financial system Trump is bringing about and the Great Reset.

✅ Quantum Financial System (QFS) metals-backed
• Anchored to tangible assets (e.g., gold, silver, strategic metals).
• Value is asserted to be intrinsic and finite, derived from physical reserves.
• Money creation is constrained by verifiable supply.

❌ Great Reset — fiat/digital-credit based
• Anchored to sovereign credit, debt instruments, and confidence.
• Value is abstract, maintained through policy, taxation, and enforcement.
• Money supply is elastic, expandable through central authority.

🤌🏼 Biggest difference is that Trump’s new financial system is backed by precious metals while the Great Reset is backed by NOTHING. Just like fiat right now.

⭕️ Income tax will be done away with and tariffs will be what is used instead to run the country.