China is steadily removing the dollar from its trade system.
- Yuan trade settlement rose from ~12% in 2019
- It climbed to roughly 30% by 2024–2025
- That is a ~170% increase in 6 years
China has a dominant global role:
- China is the biggest trade partner to most countries
- Processes 90% of the world’s critical minerals
China has been pushing trade partners to settle directly in yuan, reducing reliance on dollar clearing and Western banks.
- For exporters, using yuan lowers exposure to sanctions and asset freezes
- For China, it pulls partners further into its sphere of influence
- For the US, this is a catastrophe... demand for USTs is falling while supply is rising
Don’t be mistaken: this is war, economic warfare for now, but the US won’t give up dollar hegemony without a fight.
Hard assets will outperform in this volatile era.
- Yuan trade settlement rose from ~12% in 2019
- It climbed to roughly 30% by 2024–2025
- That is a ~170% increase in 6 years
China has a dominant global role:
- China is the biggest trade partner to most countries
- Processes 90% of the world’s critical minerals
China has been pushing trade partners to settle directly in yuan, reducing reliance on dollar clearing and Western banks.
- For exporters, using yuan lowers exposure to sanctions and asset freezes
- For China, it pulls partners further into its sphere of influence
- For the US, this is a catastrophe... demand for USTs is falling while supply is rising
Don’t be mistaken: this is war, economic warfare for now, but the US won’t give up dollar hegemony without a fight.
Hard assets will outperform in this volatile era.
✍1
Friday, Jan 30 2026, 12:00 UTC time
📋 ✅ US: Dollar heads for a second weekly drop as market trims Fed rate-hike odds; US 10-year yield ticks up on Kevin Warsh Fed chatter. US-El Salvador sign trade pact to boost critical-minerals investment. Market impact: softer USD supports risk assets; watch PPI and Fed signals.
🔖 📌 Canada: TSX retreats after fresh records; headlines note U.S.-Canada tensions — Trump threatens grounding Canadian aircraft and tariffs (WSJ), raising geopolitics risk and downside pressure on the CAD. Analysts flag potential CAD weakness if disputes escalate.
📋 🔖 Australia & New Zealand: Australia Q4 producer inflation undershoots and private credit growth hits 5½-year high — AUD set for a second weekly gain. New Zealand consumer confidence at a 4.5-year high and NZD poised for a strong monthly gain. Market take: AU/NZ FX strength vs USD amid easing PPI and firmer domestic demand signals.
✅ 📌 China & FX: Offshore yuan eyes a fourth monthly gain as Asian risk dynamics improve; China to lower whisky tariffs with UK (trade tone positive). EUR set for a ~1.5% monthly gain; EUR/USD volatile on Warsh/Fed chatter.
📋 🔖 Europe (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Eurozone): Eurozone posts resilient 2025 growth; inflation expectations tick up in ECB poll. France Q4 GDP +0.2% (prelim), households cut spending; producer inflation slows. Germany Q4 growth +0.3%, import prices down sharply; bund yields drifting lower ahead of inflation reads. Italy Q4 GDP beats forecasts; BTP yields under 3.5%. UK mortgage approvals fall to lowest since 2024 while sterling nears a four-year high. Switzerland KOF barometer slips — watch CHF for safe-haven flows.
📋 ✅ South Korea & Japan: Korea won slips amid trade uncertainty—monitor export data and FX sensitivity. (No major Japan-specific headlines in this batch.)
🔖 📌 Brazil: Ibovespa reverses early gains to close lower — watch commodity/FX links for spillovers to EM risk.
📋 ✅ Markets to watch: Oil/earnings calendar, US PPI, central bank cues (Fed/ECB/BoE/BoC), and geopolitics (US-Canada tensions) — these will steer yields, USD, EUR, CAD, AUD/NZD and CHF in the near term.
📋 ✅ US: Dollar heads for a second weekly drop as market trims Fed rate-hike odds; US 10-year yield ticks up on Kevin Warsh Fed chatter. US-El Salvador sign trade pact to boost critical-minerals investment. Market impact: softer USD supports risk assets; watch PPI and Fed signals.
🔖 📌 Canada: TSX retreats after fresh records; headlines note U.S.-Canada tensions — Trump threatens grounding Canadian aircraft and tariffs (WSJ), raising geopolitics risk and downside pressure on the CAD. Analysts flag potential CAD weakness if disputes escalate.
📋 🔖 Australia & New Zealand: Australia Q4 producer inflation undershoots and private credit growth hits 5½-year high — AUD set for a second weekly gain. New Zealand consumer confidence at a 4.5-year high and NZD poised for a strong monthly gain. Market take: AU/NZ FX strength vs USD amid easing PPI and firmer domestic demand signals.
✅ 📌 China & FX: Offshore yuan eyes a fourth monthly gain as Asian risk dynamics improve; China to lower whisky tariffs with UK (trade tone positive). EUR set for a ~1.5% monthly gain; EUR/USD volatile on Warsh/Fed chatter.
📋 🔖 Europe (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Eurozone): Eurozone posts resilient 2025 growth; inflation expectations tick up in ECB poll. France Q4 GDP +0.2% (prelim), households cut spending; producer inflation slows. Germany Q4 growth +0.3%, import prices down sharply; bund yields drifting lower ahead of inflation reads. Italy Q4 GDP beats forecasts; BTP yields under 3.5%. UK mortgage approvals fall to lowest since 2024 while sterling nears a four-year high. Switzerland KOF barometer slips — watch CHF for safe-haven flows.
📋 ✅ South Korea & Japan: Korea won slips amid trade uncertainty—monitor export data and FX sensitivity. (No major Japan-specific headlines in this batch.)
🔖 📌 Brazil: Ibovespa reverses early gains to close lower — watch commodity/FX links for spillovers to EM risk.
📋 ✅ Markets to watch: Oil/earnings calendar, US PPI, central bank cues (Fed/ECB/BoE/BoC), and geopolitics (US-Canada tensions) — these will steer yields, USD, EUR, CAD, AUD/NZD and CHF in the near term.
I'm pleased to announce that I'm nominating Kevin Warsh to be the head of the Federal Reserve.
Kevin currently holds the position of Shepard Family Visiting Economist at the Hoover Institution and lectures at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He is a partner of Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne Family Office LLC.
Kevin earned a bachelor's degree from Stanford University and a law degree from Harvard Law School. He has conducted extensive research in the fields of economics and finance. Kevin prepared an independent report for the Bank of England with proposals for reforming monetary policy in the UK. The Parliament adopted the recommendations of this report.
Kevin Warsh became the youngest member of the Federal Reserve in history - he was only 35 years old. He served on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 to 2011, represented the Fed in the G-20 and was the Council's special representative in developing and developed countries in Asia.
In addition, he was an administrative manager, overseeing the Council's work, personnel policy, and financial indicators. Before his appointment to the Council, from 2002 to 2006, Kevin served as a special assistant to the president on economic policy and executive secretary of the National Economic Council at the White House. Previously, Kevin worked in the mergers and acquisitions department of Morgan Stanley & Co. in New York, holding the positions of vice president and executive director. I've known Kevin for a long time and have no doubt that he will go down in history as one of the GREATEST heads of the Federal Reserve, and possibly the best. Among other things, he looks exactly the way a person in this position should look, and he will never let you down. Congratulations, Kevin!
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
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"U.S. BOMBERS ARE GETTING READY TO STRIKE IRAN"
Two KC-135R Stratotankers and one KC-46A Pegasus tanker departed from Fairchild Air Force Base in Washington state, heading northwest.
These tankers are providing aerial refueling support for multiple B-52H Stratofortress heavy bombers transiting across the Pacific Ocean.
These B-52H bombers are part of a strategic transit across the Pacific Ocean, with reports indicating they may be destined for Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to join other B-52s in the region.
This buildup echoes prior patterns seen in 2025, when B-52s and B-2 Spirits rotated through Diego Garcia amid tensions with Iran and its proxies.
The current leadership in Iran has grounds to begin feeling concerned.........
Two KC-135R Stratotankers and one KC-46A Pegasus tanker departed from Fairchild Air Force Base in Washington state, heading northwest.
These tankers are providing aerial refueling support for multiple B-52H Stratofortress heavy bombers transiting across the Pacific Ocean.
These B-52H bombers are part of a strategic transit across the Pacific Ocean, with reports indicating they may be destined for Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to join other B-52s in the region.
This buildup echoes prior patterns seen in 2025, when B-52s and B-2 Spirits rotated through Diego Garcia amid tensions with Iran and its proxies.
The current leadership in Iran has grounds to begin feeling concerned.........
🔥1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
"U.S. BOMBERS ARE GETTING READY TO STRIKE IRAN" Two KC-135R Stratotankers and one KC-46A Pegasus tanker departed from Fairchild Air Force Base in Washington state, heading northwest. These tankers are providing aerial refueling support for multiple B-52H…
‼️🇺🇸 Four B-52H Stratofortress strategic bombers have departed the United States and are en route to the Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The Warsh Doctrine: A Fed Reset
Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh signals a regime change at the Fed — away from heavy intervention and toward credibility and discipline.
Warsh rejects rigid “higher for longer,” favors balance-sheet discipline over QE, and warns against financial repression. Markets may read this as hawkish at first, but the bigger shift is less Fed distortion and better price discovery.
Winners: financials, insurers, real-asset industrials, and alternative asset managers.
Near term: higher volatility as markets reprice the rules.
Different Fed. Different game.
Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh signals a regime change at the Fed — away from heavy intervention and toward credibility and discipline.
Warsh rejects rigid “higher for longer,” favors balance-sheet discipline over QE, and warns against financial repression. Markets may read this as hawkish at first, but the bigger shift is less Fed distortion and better price discovery.
Winners: financials, insurers, real-asset industrials, and alternative asset managers.
Near term: higher volatility as markets reprice the rules.
Different Fed. Different game.
✍1
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
BOARD OF PEACE - Season 1
🇷🇺🇦🇪❌🇺🇸🔥 The United Arab Emirates is in talks with Russia to purchase the S-400 amid rising tensions in between US and Iran.
🇦🇪UAE will pay in #GOLD for buying S-400 instead of $AED or USD.
🇦🇪UAE will pay in #GOLD for buying S-400 instead of $AED or USD.
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Only future millionaires can like this post.
🐳2
🔥 US macroeconomic data (PPI):
▪️ Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY) (Dec)
FACT: 3.0%
FORECAST: 2.7%
PREVIOUS.: 3.0%
▪️ Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) (Dec)
FACT: 0.5%
FORECAST: 0.2%
PREVIOUS.: 0.2%
▪️ Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) (Dec)
FACT: 0.7%
FORECAST: 0.2%
PREVIOUS.: 0.0%
▪️ Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY) (Dec)
FACT: 3.3%
FORECAST: 2.9%
PREVIOUS.: 3.0%
▪️ Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY) (Dec)
FACT: 3.0%
FORECAST: 2.7%
PREVIOUS.: 3.0%
▪️ Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) (Dec)
FACT: 0.5%
FORECAST: 0.2%
PREVIOUS.: 0.2%
▪️ Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) (Dec)
FACT: 0.7%
FORECAST: 0.2%
PREVIOUS.: 0.0%
▪️ Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY) (Dec)
FACT: 3.3%
FORECAST: 2.9%
PREVIOUS.: 3.0%
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
🚨 Antimony (Sb) screaming CRITICAL for 2026! Supply: Extremely tight Demand: Defense + booming Solar H1 Outlook: BULLISH EXTREME ↑ One of the most vital (and overlooked) critical metals right now.
$UAMY 🇺🇸
🎖️ Military-Government Board Member
•General John M. “Jack” Keane – Independent Director
•Former four-star general in the U.S. Army and former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army. ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️🇺🇸
•Served 37 years in U.S. military leadership, including as acting Chief of Staff and Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, directing personnel and operations worldwide.
•He brings extensive national security and government experience to the board and has public policy/government roles beyond his military career.
🎖️ Military-Government Board Member
•General John M. “Jack” Keane – Independent Director
•Former four-star general in the U.S. Army and former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army. ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️🇺🇸
•Served 37 years in U.S. military leadership, including as acting Chief of Staff and Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, directing personnel and operations worldwide.
•He brings extensive national security and government experience to the board and has public policy/government roles beyond his military career.
✍1
🚨 Trafigura wins $600m nickel fraud case
Trafigura says it won a $600 million lawsuit against businessman Gupta, linked to the nickel fraud scandal that rocked the metals market.
What it signals.
• One of the largest fraud rulings in modern commodities trading
• Confirms the scale of counterparty and warehouse risk in physical metals
• Legal clean-up is advancing, but trust damage remains
#Nickel was the trigger.
Risk management is the real story.
#mineral #metals #India #Indonesia
Trafigura says it won a $600 million lawsuit against businessman Gupta, linked to the nickel fraud scandal that rocked the metals market.
What it signals.
• One of the largest fraud rulings in modern commodities trading
• Confirms the scale of counterparty and warehouse risk in physical metals
• Legal clean-up is advancing, but trust damage remains
#Nickel was the trigger.
Risk management is the real story.
#mineral #metals #India #Indonesia
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Rick Rule: We’re in a bull market - don’t waste it.
- In the 1970s, the gold price fell 3 times by 30% or more
- 1971-1975: Gold increased 6x, from $35 to $200
- In 1975, gold fell from $200 to $100
Everyone shaken out at $100 missed the move to $850 by 1980
“You have to prepare yourself financially and psychologically for 20-50% pullbacks.”
“You need to know your portfolio well enough that you have the conviction where price declines are opportunities instead of risks. The converse of that, is that when you see price spike up, you need to harvest gains.”
“You have not made the money until you have taken the money.”
- In the 1970s, the gold price fell 3 times by 30% or more
- 1971-1975: Gold increased 6x, from $35 to $200
- In 1975, gold fell from $200 to $100
Everyone shaken out at $100 missed the move to $850 by 1980
“You have to prepare yourself financially and psychologically for 20-50% pullbacks.”
“You need to know your portfolio well enough that you have the conviction where price declines are opportunities instead of risks. The converse of that, is that when you see price spike up, you need to harvest gains.”
“You have not made the money until you have taken the money.”
🚨THE SILVER MARKET IS BEING HEAVILY MANIPULATED RIGHT NOW.
Silver is trading at two completely different prices at the same time.
In the US (COMEX), silver is around $92. In Shanghai, physical silver is around $130. That’s a 40%+ premium in Shanghai.
Same metal. Two prices. And this gap is exactly what manipulation looks like.
Here’s why:
1. COMEX IS MOSTLY A PAPER MARKET
In the US, silver trading is dominated by paper contracts. Most of the volume is not real silver moving around. It’s contracts being bought and sold. And the paper to physical ratio is estimated around 350:1. That means for every 1 real ounce, there can be hundreds of paper claims.
So when big players dump paper contracts, the price drops even if physical silver is still tight. No actual silver needs to be sold.
They just sell paper and push the price down.
2) SMM AND SHANGHAI REFLECT REAL PHYSICAL DEMAND
SMM prices reflect actual physical transactions inside China. Silver holding around $120 there already shows stress. Shanghai spot prices near $130 show something even clearer: buyers are paying up because they need physical silver now.
These premiums appear when supply is tight, delivery matters, contracts are not enough. Shanghai is not pricing paper leverage. It is pricing availability.
Where paper dominates, silver prices are suppressed. Where physical demand dominates, silver trades much higher.
COMEX shows a paper price. SMM and Shanghai show the physical price.
The gap between them is proof that silver prices are being heavily influenced by paper trading, while the real market is already clearing much higher.
Silver is trading at two completely different prices at the same time.
In the US (COMEX), silver is around $92. In Shanghai, physical silver is around $130. That’s a 40%+ premium in Shanghai.
Same metal. Two prices. And this gap is exactly what manipulation looks like.
Here’s why:
1. COMEX IS MOSTLY A PAPER MARKET
In the US, silver trading is dominated by paper contracts. Most of the volume is not real silver moving around. It’s contracts being bought and sold. And the paper to physical ratio is estimated around 350:1. That means for every 1 real ounce, there can be hundreds of paper claims.
So when big players dump paper contracts, the price drops even if physical silver is still tight. No actual silver needs to be sold.
They just sell paper and push the price down.
2) SMM AND SHANGHAI REFLECT REAL PHYSICAL DEMAND
SMM prices reflect actual physical transactions inside China. Silver holding around $120 there already shows stress. Shanghai spot prices near $130 show something even clearer: buyers are paying up because they need physical silver now.
These premiums appear when supply is tight, delivery matters, contracts are not enough. Shanghai is not pricing paper leverage. It is pricing availability.
Where paper dominates, silver prices are suppressed. Where physical demand dominates, silver trades much higher.
COMEX shows a paper price. SMM and Shanghai show the physical price.
The gap between them is proof that silver prices are being heavily influenced by paper trading, while the real market is already clearing much higher.
▪️Bostic, Fed Chairman:
- The Fed needs to be patient and keep monetary policy moderately restrictive.
- A rate cut is not needed now, two cuts are not the base scenario.
- I advocate reducing the Fed's balance sheet.
▪️Wallace, Fed Chairman:
- There is still high uncertainty about the future of the labor market.
- The Fed's monetary policy should be closer to neutral, around 3%, compared to the current 3.50–3.75%.
▪️Miran, Fed Chairman:
- There are no problems with inflation now.
- The rate remains too restrictive.
- I advocate a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, deregulation will help to do this.
📌 Market expectations (rate #FED):
- March 18: PAUSE.
- April 29: PAUSE.
- June 17: a 25-basis-point cut to 3.25–3.50%.
- July 29: PAUSE.
- September 16: a 25-basis-point cut to 3.00–3.25%.
- October 28: PAUSE.
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$UAMY The U.S. is going to need more antimony for this.
• Lockheed Martin has signed a new framework agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense to dramatically increase annual production of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile interceptors.
• Annual output will grow from roughly 96 interceptors to about 400 per year under the new agreement.
• Lockheed Martin plans to start construction of a new Munitions Acceleration Center in Camden, Arkansas, which will use advanced manufacturing and robotics to support THAAD and other missile production.
• Lockheed Martin has signed a new framework agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense to dramatically increase annual production of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile interceptors.
• Annual output will grow from roughly 96 interceptors to about 400 per year under the new agreement.
• Lockheed Martin plans to start construction of a new Munitions Acceleration Center in Camden, Arkansas, which will use advanced manufacturing and robotics to support THAAD and other missile production.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
Trading $XAG with size? Execution costs matter. This table compares a $1M XAG market order at 10x leverage across perp DEXs. gTrade offers: 🍏 Tightest spreads 🍏 Lowest total costs 🍏 Up to 250x leverage Trade $XAG ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAG-USD
Traded silver with size today? This is why execution costs matter.
#fundingviewapp shows gTrade delivering the best execution path for $1M $XAG, even during extreme volatility.
Comparing Hyperliquid? Simulating a $1M market order (7:30 pm UTC on Jan 30, 2026) shows:
Execution costs (base fee + spread)
• gTrade: 0.113%
• Hyperliquid: 0.442%
A 3.5x difference.
Funding rates
• gTrade: stayed below 100%
• Hyperliquid: spiked to an interval at 1,400%
No broken books, partial fills, and four-digit funding APRs. Just tradeable markets when it counts.
Trade $XAG ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAG-USD
#fundingviewapp shows gTrade delivering the best execution path for $1M $XAG, even during extreme volatility.
Comparing Hyperliquid? Simulating a $1M market order (7:30 pm UTC on Jan 30, 2026) shows:
Execution costs (base fee + spread)
• gTrade: 0.113%
• Hyperliquid: 0.442%
A 3.5x difference.
Funding rates
• gTrade: stayed below 100%
• Hyperliquid: spiked to an interval at 1,400%
No broken books, partial fills, and four-digit funding APRs. Just tradeable markets when it counts.
Trade $XAG ➡️ gains.trade/trading#XAG-USD
Gold -20%.
Silver -30%.
In one single day.
That’s over $40+ trillion in combined market value violently repriced.
This is the real lesson:
When an asset is treated as “can’t go down”, it becomes the most fragile trade on the board.
Crowded positioning.
False certainty.
One trigger, and everyone runs for the same exit.
Safe havens don’t crash often.
But when they do, they remind markets that nothing is risk-free.
#GOLD #Silver
Silver -30%.
In one single day.
That’s over $40+ trillion in combined market value violently repriced.
This is the real lesson:
When an asset is treated as “can’t go down”, it becomes the most fragile trade on the board.
Crowded positioning.
False certainty.
One trigger, and everyone runs for the same exit.
Safe havens don’t crash often.
But when they do, they remind markets that nothing is risk-free.
#GOLD #Silver
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium.
All down hard in a single session.
This was not a slow correction.
It was a forced repricing.
What the tape is telling you:
• #GOLD rolled over after a parabolic run
• #Silver collapsed as leverage flushed out
• #Platinum and #palladium followed. Liquidity vanished
• Correlations went to one. Everything sold
This is what happens when an asset is treated as “can’t go down.”
Crowded positioning turns into fragility.
Safe haven narratives don’t break gently.
They break violently.
This was not about fundamentals.
It was about positioning, leverage, and exits.
The market didn’t ask if metals are long-term bullish.
It asked who needed to sell right now.
Volatility is back.
#metals
All down hard in a single session.
This was not a slow correction.
It was a forced repricing.
What the tape is telling you:
• #GOLD rolled over after a parabolic run
• #Silver collapsed as leverage flushed out
• #Platinum and #palladium followed. Liquidity vanished
• Correlations went to one. Everything sold
This is what happens when an asset is treated as “can’t go down.”
Crowded positioning turns into fragility.
Safe haven narratives don’t break gently.
They break violently.
This was not about fundamentals.
It was about positioning, leverage, and exits.
The market didn’t ask if metals are long-term bullish.
It asked who needed to sell right now.
Volatility is back.
#metals