‼️ FED - decision on interest rate!

FACT.: 3.75% (PAUSE)
PROGNOSIS.: 3.75%
PREDICTION.: 3.75%

🔥🇺🇸 On Monday, the White House will gather top executives from the banking and cryptocurrency industries to discuss the stalled bill on the structure of the crypto market (CLARITY)

⚡ Jerome Powell (head of the #FED):

✔ Last year, the American economy grew steadily.
✔ The economy is entering 2026 in good condition.
❗️The unemployment rate has begun to stabilize.
✔ Inflation is still slightly above the target level.
✔ Rate decisions are made separately at each meeting.
✔ Consumer spending remains stable.
✔ The current monetary policy is appropriate to the situation and helps to achieve both goals of the mandate.
✔ The effect of the government shutdown should disappear in the current quarter.
✔ The slowdown in employment growth is associated with a reduction in the supply of labor. The demand for labor has also significantly decreased.
✔ The number of vacancies and wage growth are changing insignificantly.
✔ There is deflation in the services sector.
✔ The increased inflation is mainly due to the rise in prices of goods subject to tariffs.
✔ Long-term inflation expectations are in line with the target indicators.
✔ We are in a good position to determine the scale and timing of further rate adjustments.
❗️The normalization of policy should help stabilize the labor market.
✔ I will continue to perform my duties objectively and conscientiously for the benefit of the American people.
✔ We are overcoming the distortions in the data caused by the government shutdown, and this is no longer a factor.
❗️We should not overestimate the signs of stabilization in the labor market.
✔ The forecast for economic activity has markedly improved since the last meeting.
✔ Macrodata show some signs of stabilization in the labor market and at the same time signs of continued cooling.

⚡ Jerome Powell (head of the #FED:
(part 2)

❗️We will not comment on the situation with the dollar exchange rate.
✔ Judging by the received macrodata, it's hard to say that the FED's monetary policy is highly restrictive - it's closer to neutral.
✔ If we look at the December economic forecasts, most chairmen see a significant normalization of the economic situation ahead.
✔ We have made significant progress and are in a comfortable position to observe the development of the economy and allow the data to speak for themselves.
✔ The FED is not trying to set criteria for the next rate cut.
❗️The tension between employment levels and inflation still persists, but it's less than before.
✔ The risks for both sides of the FED's mandate have slightly decreased.
✔ Tariffs are likely to lead to a one-time price increase.
✔ Most of the inflation growth is caused by tariffs, not demand.
✔ Most of the effect of tariffs has already been reflected in the economy.
✔ The risks of rising inflation and declining employment have decreased.
✔ It's hard to say whether all the risks of the mandate are in full balance.
✔ Short-term inflation expectations have fully returned to normal, and this is very encouraging.
✔ Long-term inflation expectations reflect confidence in the return of inflation to the 2% level.
✔ We will always act when the economy deviates from our goals.
❗️A rate hike is not considered as a base scenario at the moment.
❗️The trajectory of the US national debt is clearly unsustainable.
✔ The effect of tariffs on goods will reach its maximum, after which it will begin to weaken this year.

⚡ Jerome Powell (head of the #FED:
(part 3)

✔ A weakening labor market requires a rate cut, while a strong one does not.
❗️There is little data indicating that foreign investors are actively hedging their dollar assets.
❗️Many factors, not short-term events, influence the yield on long-term US government bonds.
✔ In the end, we will do the right thing.
✔ The US budget deficit is unacceptable. The sooner we start working on this problem, the better.
✔ The point of the Fed's independence is that elected officials cannot directly influence monetary policy.
✔ If the Fed loses its independence, it will be impossible to regain trust.
✔ The growth in the supply of labor has practically stopped. The demand for labor is declining slightly faster than the supply.
✔ The economy has once again surprised us with its resilience.
✔ There is a positive effect from spending on artificial intelligence.
✔ For some time now, there has been a discrepancy between pessimistic consumer surveys and actual spending data.
✔ Retailers say that low-income consumers are trying to save money.
✔ The best thing we can do for people in trouble is to reduce inflation.
✔ In the short term, the development of AI may lead to job cuts, but the overall effect is still unknown.
❗️Many geopolitical risks are associated with energy and oil, but so far there are no particular problems.
✔ The economy is successfully adapting to major changes in trade policy.
✔ Quarterly GDP data may be inaccurate, it's necessary to look at the year as a whole.
✔ Perhaps the discrepancy between GDP and employment data is beginning to smooth out.

⚡ Jerome Powell (head of #FED):
(part 4)

✔ I recommend the next head of the FED to stay away from politics and gain the trust of Congress.
❗️There's no need to attach great importance to macroeconomic signals from the precious metals market, but we monitor them.
✔ Criticism of the FED's models simply doesn't make sense.

🏁 END

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