Global Primary Copper Supply Growth
Mine supply has exploded in recent decades from 5 Mt in 1990 to 22 Mt today
driven almost entirely by Latin America, Africa, and Asia Pacific.
900–1980: Slow growth, mostly North America & Europe
1980s–1990s: Latin America takes off (#Chile reopens to foreign investment, new mines)
2000s: Asia Pacific surges (Australia, Indonesia, Mongolia, #China domestic)
2010s–2020: #Africa rebounds sharply (Chinese investment in DRC, Zambia) + continued Latin growth (mainly Peru)
today:Latin America has the largest share, led by Chile & #Peru
The world now relies heavily on these regions for new copper supply critical for the energy transition (EVs, renewables, grids).
Supply risks in any one could hit prices hard.
#Copper #Mining #Energy #Commodities
Mine supply has exploded in recent decades from 5 Mt in 1990 to 22 Mt today
driven almost entirely by Latin America, Africa, and Asia Pacific.
900–1980: Slow growth, mostly North America & Europe
1980s–1990s: Latin America takes off (#Chile reopens to foreign investment, new mines)
2000s: Asia Pacific surges (Australia, Indonesia, Mongolia, #China domestic)
2010s–2020: #Africa rebounds sharply (Chinese investment in DRC, Zambia) + continued Latin growth (mainly Peru)
today:Latin America has the largest share, led by Chile & #Peru
The world now relies heavily on these regions for new copper supply critical for the energy transition (EVs, renewables, grids).
Supply risks in any one could hit prices hard.
#Copper #Mining #Energy #Commodities
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
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🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
The new French social contract: 1/ The state forces you to declare everything. 2/ A tax official turns you in to criminal networks, or the database gets hacked. 3/ You're held hostage in your own home. In France, the state is garbage. It's more of a problem…
The country's financial regulator introduced a ban on the use of confidential crypto services in the Dubai International Financial Centre.
The following are subject to the ban:
• Private cryptocurrencies and anonymization tools.
• Any operations with them, including trading, advertising, funds, and derivatives.
The reason is incompatibility with AML and sanctions compliance requirements: anonymous transactions do not allow the identification of the sender and recipient.
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✍1
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You can now get two different personal crypto IBANs 👀
One in euro and one in Swiss franc, for instance.
A true multi-crypto-fiat-currency wallet 🔥
👉 mtpelerin.com
One in euro and one in Swiss franc, for instance.
A true multi-crypto-fiat-currency wallet 🔥
👉 mtpelerin.com
LME Metal Inventories ... Extreme Moves!
Huge divergence across base metals last year:
Biggest builds
Nickel: +57.6%
Lead: +54.5%
Tin: +25.7%
Biggest draws :
Zinc: -57.7% (deepest drain)
Copper: -33.2%
Aluminium: -33.1%
Nickel & lead → clear oversupply / weak demand
Zinc & copper → stocks got hammered (tight supply or strong offtake)
These inventory swings often lead price direction:
draws = bullish pressure ahead
builds = bearish risk
which side are you betting on for 2026?
#Metals #LME #Copper #Zinc #Nickel #Commodities
Huge divergence across base metals last year:
Biggest builds
Nickel: +57.6%
Lead: +54.5%
Tin: +25.7%
Biggest draws :
Zinc: -57.7% (deepest drain)
Copper: -33.2%
Aluminium: -33.1%
Nickel & lead → clear oversupply / weak demand
Zinc & copper → stocks got hammered (tight supply or strong offtake)
These inventory swings often lead price direction:
draws = bullish pressure ahead
builds = bearish risk
which side are you betting on for 2026?
#Metals #LME #Copper #Zinc #Nickel #Commodities
🚨BREAKING: #Gold and #Silver just hit a new all-time high as the US dollar weakened after Powell accused Trump of targeting the Fed.
Now the Fed’s independence is at risk, so investors are dumping dollar and buying metals for safety hedge.
The precious metal bull run still shows no signs of stopping in 2026.
Now the Fed’s independence is at risk, so investors are dumping dollar and buying metals for safety hedge.
The precious metal bull run still shows no signs of stopping in 2026.
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The Prime Minister of Greenland right now.
Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
🇺🇸🇻🇪 US Lifts Sanctions on Venezuelan Oil to Facilitate Sales – Reuters
The US administration could lift restrictions on the sale of Venezuelan oil as early as next week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced. The goal is to facilitate trade and stabilize supplies.
In addition, nearly $5 billion of Venezuelan assets held at the IMF, which are currently frozen, could be used for the country's "economic recovery." Bessent plans to discuss this with the heads of the IMF and the World Bank.
Venezuela will not have access to its own funds. On January 9, Trump signed an executive order stipulating that the proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan oil would be held in special accounts in the United States. It will be managed by American officials: Treasury Secretary Bessent, Secretary of State Rubio, Attorney General Bondi, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
❗️ The United States is lifting sanctions on oil, but maintaining complete control over financial flows. This will allow Washington to use Venezuelan resources for its own purposes and profit from oil sales at the same time.
The US administration could lift restrictions on the sale of Venezuelan oil as early as next week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced. The goal is to facilitate trade and stabilize supplies.
In addition, nearly $5 billion of Venezuelan assets held at the IMF, which are currently frozen, could be used for the country's "economic recovery." Bessent plans to discuss this with the heads of the IMF and the World Bank.
Venezuela will not have access to its own funds. On January 9, Trump signed an executive order stipulating that the proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan oil would be held in special accounts in the United States. It will be managed by American officials: Treasury Secretary Bessent, Secretary of State Rubio, Attorney General Bondi, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
❗️ The United States is lifting sanctions on oil, but maintaining complete control over financial flows. This will allow Washington to use Venezuelan resources for its own purposes and profit from oil sales at the same time.
📌🇺🇸 The corporate earnings season will begin in the US this week (January 13)
Reminder: the corporate earnings season is traditionally accompanied by increased volatility - both in the stock market and in crypto. The consensus forecast for the results of the 4th quarter of 2025: an increase in S&P 500 companies' profits is expected in the range of +8-9% y/y, and an increase in revenue - about +7-8%. Stronger reports usually support risk appetite, while weak profit dynamics reinforce correctional sentiment.
▪️FactSet:
- The expected increase in S&P 500 companies' profits in the 4th quarter of 2025 is about +8.3% y/y.
- The main contribution to the profit growth comes from the technology sector, primarily AI, semiconductors, and software. Individual consumer segments remain under pressure.
▪️LSEG:
- The forecast for S&P 500 profit growth in the 4th quarter is about +8.5-9% y/y.
- Excluding energy, profit growth looks more stable. The financial and industrial sectors are showing recovery after a weak first half of the year.
▪️Goldman Sachs:
- The key market driver is the growth of profits of companies focused on AI and digital infrastructure. High multipliers increase the market's sensitivity to any disappointments in reports.
- The growth in profits in 2026 is expected to be double-digit, but uneven across sectors.
▪️JPMorgan:
- There may be a slowdown in EPS (earnings per share) growth due to pressure on margins and rising costs.
- Banks and the consumer sector may report below expectations. Investors' focus is shifting to management's comments (forecasts for 2026).
▪️UBS:
- A moderate increase in S&P 500 profits is expected with continued elevated risks.
- The main risks are related to financial conditions and a slowdown in consumer activity. AI remains a key structural factor supporting the market.
▪️Deutsche Bank:
- The market's growth potential is supported by investments in AI and companies' capital expenditures.
- Consumer activity and the labor market are key risk areas.
▪️Sanctuary Wealth:
- The main focus is on corporate forecasts for 2026.
Reminder: the corporate earnings season is traditionally accompanied by increased volatility - both in the stock market and in crypto. The consensus forecast for the results of the 4th quarter of 2025: an increase in S&P 500 companies' profits is expected in the range of +8-9% y/y, and an increase in revenue - about +7-8%. Stronger reports usually support risk appetite, while weak profit dynamics reinforce correctional sentiment.
▪️FactSet:
- The expected increase in S&P 500 companies' profits in the 4th quarter of 2025 is about +8.3% y/y.
- The main contribution to the profit growth comes from the technology sector, primarily AI, semiconductors, and software. Individual consumer segments remain under pressure.
▪️LSEG:
- The forecast for S&P 500 profit growth in the 4th quarter is about +8.5-9% y/y.
- Excluding energy, profit growth looks more stable. The financial and industrial sectors are showing recovery after a weak first half of the year.
▪️Goldman Sachs:
- The key market driver is the growth of profits of companies focused on AI and digital infrastructure. High multipliers increase the market's sensitivity to any disappointments in reports.
- The growth in profits in 2026 is expected to be double-digit, but uneven across sectors.
▪️JPMorgan:
- There may be a slowdown in EPS (earnings per share) growth due to pressure on margins and rising costs.
- Banks and the consumer sector may report below expectations. Investors' focus is shifting to management's comments (forecasts for 2026).
▪️UBS:
- A moderate increase in S&P 500 profits is expected with continued elevated risks.
- The main risks are related to financial conditions and a slowdown in consumer activity. AI remains a key structural factor supporting the market.
▪️Deutsche Bank:
- The market's growth potential is supported by investments in AI and companies' capital expenditures.
- Consumer activity and the labor market are key risk areas.
▪️Sanctuary Wealth:
- The main focus is on corporate forecasts for 2026.
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Forwarded from 🛢WTI, Brent Crude Oil, NGAS Trading 📊
💥 The Iranian regime is facing protests in all 31 provinces
The currency collapsed 72%📉
Security forces are refusing orders.
Polymarket is pricing 41% odds that #Khamenei falls within 78 days.
Here's what happens when Iran's government collapses:
→ 1.8M barrels/day of oil supply freezes
→ #China loses exclusive access to $8-12/barrel discounts(#Brent )
→ Chinese refiners watch their margins evaporate
→ Global buyers compete for Iranian crude at market prices
The piece breaks down:
-Why these protests are different (and why security apparatus cracks matter more than crowd size)
-How #RezaPahlavi and the White House are coordinating transition scenarios
-💰The Merchant's Play (strategy to capture regime change upside)
What can happens to oil prices ?
Prediction markets are pricing real money on near term catalysts:
46% odds on US strikes by Jan 31 ($4.77M volume)
32% odds on Israeli strikes by Jan 31 ($6.84M volume)
41% odds on Khamenei removal by Mar 31 ($3.18M volume)
#oott #Geopolitics #Commodity
The currency collapsed 72%📉
Security forces are refusing orders.
Polymarket is pricing 41% odds that #Khamenei falls within 78 days.
Here's what happens when Iran's government collapses:
→ 1.8M barrels/day of oil supply freezes
→ #China loses exclusive access to $8-12/barrel discounts(#Brent )
→ Chinese refiners watch their margins evaporate
→ Global buyers compete for Iranian crude at market prices
The piece breaks down:
-Why these protests are different (and why security apparatus cracks matter more than crowd size)
-How #RezaPahlavi and the White House are coordinating transition scenarios
-💰The Merchant's Play (strategy to capture regime change upside)
What can happens to oil prices ?
Prediction markets are pricing real money on near term catalysts:
46% odds on US strikes by Jan 31 ($4.77M volume)
32% odds on Israeli strikes by Jan 31 ($6.84M volume)
41% odds on Khamenei removal by Mar 31 ($3.18M volume)
#oott #Geopolitics #Commodity
GLOBAL DEFENSE CHEAT SHEET
Defense is about drones, software, communications & the industrial base that makes them scale with these companies enabling that shift:
Drones
• $ONDS builds the secure comm layer drones use to transmit video, data & commands without being jammed or hacked
• $AVAV is the primary U.S. military drone prime operating large, long-endurance ISR & strike platforms embedded across DoD programs
• $KTOS designs attritable unmanned systems built for scale where loss tolerance & cost matter more than perfection
• $RCAT sells short-range tactical drones used by military units, police & emergency responders for real-world ISR
• $DPRO operates on the services layer providing drone operations, training & deployment rather than manufacturing hardware
• $UAVS focuses on drone manufacturing & contract production tied to defense, logistics & government customers
• $NOC integrates autonomous platforms into large-scale defense systems where reliability matters more than speed
eVTOL
• $JOBY leads eVTOL on certification progress, test hours & commercial readiness through early FAA engagement & operating partnerships
• $ACHR designing eVTOL aircraft for defense & government procurement rather than consumer air taxi services
• $EVTL is focused on building eVTOL manufacturing & certification infrastructure to scale production over time
• $EH operates autonomous aerial vehicles at scale in China where regulatory approval allows faster deployment
Decision Software
• $PLTR turns drone & satellite feeds into real-time command decisions
• $GD integrates drones into existing military command-and-control systems
• $BAH moves drone data through defense workflows without human bottlenecks
• $PL provides wide-area satellite imagery that gives context before & after drone missions
Strike Systems
• $AXON supplies non-lethal effectors & real-time capture tools used by law enforcement & domestic security forces.
• $BA builds large-scale military aircraft & strike platforms that deliver munitions across air & space
• $LMT designs advanced weapons systems where precision, stealth & survivability matter most
• $LHX provides sensors & guidance systems that keep munitions accurate in jammed or GPS-denied environments
• $TXT manufactures tactical aircraft & mission systems that carry & deploy effectors in contested environments
• $RTX is a core missile & interceptor prime supplying precision strike and air defense at scale
Defense is about drones, software, communications & the industrial base that makes them scale with these companies enabling that shift:
Drones
• $ONDS builds the secure comm layer drones use to transmit video, data & commands without being jammed or hacked
• $AVAV is the primary U.S. military drone prime operating large, long-endurance ISR & strike platforms embedded across DoD programs
• $KTOS designs attritable unmanned systems built for scale where loss tolerance & cost matter more than perfection
• $RCAT sells short-range tactical drones used by military units, police & emergency responders for real-world ISR
• $DPRO operates on the services layer providing drone operations, training & deployment rather than manufacturing hardware
• $UAVS focuses on drone manufacturing & contract production tied to defense, logistics & government customers
• $NOC integrates autonomous platforms into large-scale defense systems where reliability matters more than speed
eVTOL
• $JOBY leads eVTOL on certification progress, test hours & commercial readiness through early FAA engagement & operating partnerships
• $ACHR designing eVTOL aircraft for defense & government procurement rather than consumer air taxi services
• $EVTL is focused on building eVTOL manufacturing & certification infrastructure to scale production over time
• $EH operates autonomous aerial vehicles at scale in China where regulatory approval allows faster deployment
Decision Software
• $PLTR turns drone & satellite feeds into real-time command decisions
• $GD integrates drones into existing military command-and-control systems
• $BAH moves drone data through defense workflows without human bottlenecks
• $PL provides wide-area satellite imagery that gives context before & after drone missions
Strike Systems
• $AXON supplies non-lethal effectors & real-time capture tools used by law enforcement & domestic security forces.
• $BA builds large-scale military aircraft & strike platforms that deliver munitions across air & space
• $LMT designs advanced weapons systems where precision, stealth & survivability matter most
• $LHX provides sensors & guidance systems that keep munitions accurate in jammed or GPS-denied environments
• $TXT manufactures tactical aircraft & mission systems that carry & deploy effectors in contested environments
• $RTX is a core missile & interceptor prime supplying precision strike and air defense at scale
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#GOLD #XAU/USD M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi @Hawk_trading_bot …
#GOLD #XAU/USD M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
@VooiAppBot
🐦 @pigeon_trade_bot
↗️ gains.trade
↗️ ostium.com
↗️ vooi.io
Prove your #trading skills and get funded!
🥕 carrotfunding.io
Unlock your freedom
💱 mtpelerin.com
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
@VooiAppBot
🐦 @pigeon_trade_bot
Prove your #trading skills and get funded!
🥕 carrotfunding.io
Unlock your freedom
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💥The January 31st US Strikes Iran market has pulled $4.77 million in trading volume at 45% implied probability on #Polymarket
That means traders see nearly coin flip odds that #Trump launches military action within 19 days.
That means traders see nearly coin flip odds that #Trump launches military action within 19 days.
🇨🇭 Global One SI - Prompt
#WTI/USDT M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi @Hawk_trading_bot …
#WTI/USDT M15 #Indicator #Signal #Trading #GlobalOneAI
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
@VooiAppBot
🐦 @pigeon_trade_bot
↗️ gains.trade
↗️ ostium.com
↗️ vooi.io
Prove your #trading skills and get funded!
🥕 carrotfunding.io
Unlock your freedom
💱 mtpelerin.com
Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange - 290+ assets across #crypto, #forex, #stocks, #indices, and #commodities. All tradeable from your wallet. Just #trade on Hawk/gTrade + Ostium or Vooi
@Hawk_trading_bot @ostiumbot
@VooiAppBot
🐦 @pigeon_trade_bot
Prove your #trading skills and get funded!
🥕 carrotfunding.io
Unlock your freedom
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💥Gold is flooding out of the US at a record pace:
US non-monetary gold exports surged to a record $17.1 BILLION in October 2025
This refers to physical bullion shipped for investment, jewelry, and industrial use, not central bank reserves.
This marks an unprecedented spike compared with the typical $1–3B monthly range over the last 15 years.
The surge reflects soaring demand for hard assets as investors hedge against currency weakness, geopolitical tensions, and trade-policy uncertainty.
#GOLD
US non-monetary gold exports surged to a record $17.1 BILLION in October 2025
This refers to physical bullion shipped for investment, jewelry, and industrial use, not central bank reserves.
This marks an unprecedented spike compared with the typical $1–3B monthly range over the last 15 years.
The surge reflects soaring demand for hard assets as investors hedge against currency weakness, geopolitical tensions, and trade-policy uncertainty.
#GOLD
Codelco Expects Modest Copper Production Growth in 2026
#Chile's state-owned mining giant #Codelco is forecasting 1.344 million metric tons of copper output in 2026, up 10,000 tons from 2025.
2025 output: 1.33 million tons (Codelco alone)
2025 total with partners: +100,000 tons
2026 forecast (Codelco): 1.344 million tons (+0.75% y/y)
aging mines, delayed projects (e.g., Chuquicamata underground), labor disputes, and lower ore grades.
Still, the slight increase reflects incremental improvements and some recovery in operations.
Global copper demand remains strong (energy transition, EVs, grids), but supply growth is tight. Codelco's output is critical it accounts for 10% of world mined copper.
Any upside surprise here could help ease supply concerns and moderate price volatility in 2026.
#Copper #Codelco #Chile #Mining #Commodities
#Chile's state-owned mining giant #Codelco is forecasting 1.344 million metric tons of copper output in 2026, up 10,000 tons from 2025.
2025 output: 1.33 million tons (Codelco alone)
2025 total with partners: +100,000 tons
2026 forecast (Codelco): 1.344 million tons (+0.75% y/y)
aging mines, delayed projects (e.g., Chuquicamata underground), labor disputes, and lower ore grades.
Still, the slight increase reflects incremental improvements and some recovery in operations.
Global copper demand remains strong (energy transition, EVs, grids), but supply growth is tight. Codelco's output is critical it accounts for 10% of world mined copper.
Any upside surprise here could help ease supply concerns and moderate price volatility in 2026.
#Copper #Codelco #Chile #Mining #Commodities
Rio Tinto + Glencore Merger Would Create the World's Bigger Copper Miner
A potential $260B+ tie-up would vault the combined entity to the top spot in mined copper output for 2026
Projected 2026 Mined Copper Output (million tonnes):
Rio Tinto + #Glencore → ~1.8–2.0 Mt (clear #1)
#Codelco (Chile) → ~1.34 Mt (#2)
#BHP → ~1.3 Mt (#3)
Freeport-McMoRan → ~1.1–1.2 Mt (#4)
Grupo México → ~1.0 Mt (#5)
Anglo American + Teck → ~0.8–0.9 Mt (#6)
Combined, they'd control more than 20% of global mined copper supply
Massive pricing power in the energy transition metal (EVs, renewables, grids)
Rivals BHP and Codelco would be left far behind
#Copper #Mining #RioTinto #Commodities
A potential $260B+ tie-up would vault the combined entity to the top spot in mined copper output for 2026
Projected 2026 Mined Copper Output (million tonnes):
Rio Tinto + #Glencore → ~1.8–2.0 Mt (clear #1)
#Codelco (Chile) → ~1.34 Mt (#2)
#BHP → ~1.3 Mt (#3)
Freeport-McMoRan → ~1.1–1.2 Mt (#4)
Grupo México → ~1.0 Mt (#5)
Anglo American + Teck → ~0.8–0.9 Mt (#6)
Combined, they'd control more than 20% of global mined copper supply
Massive pricing power in the energy transition metal (EVs, renewables, grids)
Rivals BHP and Codelco would be left far behind
#Copper #Mining #RioTinto #Commodities